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Is this good advice for newbies?: Is this home-distilling hobby really for me?

2023.06.10 15:59 lafras-h Is this good advice for newbies?: Is this home-distilling hobby really for me?

The following is a modernized version of the advice given in the Newbies Corner of Aussie distiller forum https://aussiedistiller.com.au/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=3539 (dated 2013)- it follows the same sort of fictional dialogue with a lot of the original text but structured to include home continuous distillation as an option. I hope this is considered fair use – plz tell me what you think, which parts are good, bad, missing, or just plain wrong:
Is this home-distilling hobby really for me?
This is probably something you have been contemplating since you first read, heard, or watched a show about home distilling. As with most hobbies, you need to go over the pros and cons of why you want to get into it, and what kind of time and costs are involved in getting set up, and continuing the hobby. By the end of this write up you should have enough information to decide whether or not this is something for you!
What do you want to get out of this hobby? First things first. What do you want to get out of distilling?
​
Do you just want a quick and easy way to get alcohol?
Or
Do you want to make a quality drop that will beat the price and taste of commercial products?
​
Think about that for a second, and when you're ready, we can move on.
- I know what I want!
Alright then! That is all fine and dandy, but I think we are getting ahead of ourselves.
Do you want to be an early adopter of cutting-edge modern technology or do you want to make it the old-fashioned way, like you may have seen on shows like Moonshiners?
So you want to use the bleeding edge of modern technology? Yes? Let's move on then.
What kind of price will I be looking at, you ask?
A smart, automated, micro air-cooled reflux continuous still will set you back $500 shipped.
- Holy s\**!*
Does that seem expensive to you? If so, you may want to re-think your options. But before that, think of it this way. That price pales in comparison to what you can spend on commercial products. For example, a quick search shows that $500 of alcohol is approximately 10 to 20 bottles of Jack Daniels depending on your country. Once you've finished that alcohol, that's it. You have to buy more. It ain't going to fill itself back up.
Now let's look at the still price again. $500.It's a once-off equipment price that you spend. From there on out you only pay for your ingredients, and you can make as much alcohol as you, your family, your friends, etc can ever think of drinking.
Okay, so after pondering that for a while and consulting the minister of finance, let's move on.
- Sorry, I don't want to spend that much!
Okay, so that's not for you.
-How about less technology and more work, is that less expensive?
Yes, It can be...
Do you want to make spirit that you can use as vodka, a base for gin, in mixes, or with essences designed to emulate commercial spirits, including whiskeys or brandy(a neutral spirit), or do you want to make traditional authentic whiskey/whisky/rum/etc (a flavored spirit)?
If you want to make a neutral spirit, your best bet is to go with a reflux still. We won't go into too much detail with the different types of stills as there is plenty of that around. We just want to work out whether or not you have the time and money to go the traditional route into this hobby.
If you want to make an authentic flavored spirit (whiskey/whisky/rum/etc) a pot still would be a good starting place.
So, have you decided what you want? Yes? Let's move on then.
- I want to make a neutral spirit!
Okay, so for making a neutral spirit, we want to go with a reflux still. This will make a neutral/flavorless spirit that you can mix with flavors. But don't get too ahead of yourself just yet.
If you don't have the skills to build your own, you will likely be looking at buying one. There are many online stores where you can get exactly what you want. They will be more than happy to recommend the best piece of equipment for your needs.
What kind of price will I be looking at, you ask? Going by some stores, a basic 2" reflux still and a boiler will set you back around ~$800 delivered.
- Double Holy s\**!*
Yes, sometimes new technology can do more for less money... but wait, if we go real old school the next option is a pot still.
Searching online you can find a small pot still for under $100, or you could DIY a keg still for under $150
.- That's more like it!
I thought it might be more appealing to you...What's the catch, you say?
Well, a pot still (and a reflux still to a lesser extent) needs a lot of manual mundane repetitive tasks and both need a lot of boring babysitting, watching it the whole time. Basically, block off a long weekend to run a decent haul. And half your garage...you need a lot of space to work in and you don’t want kids running around your still.
Also with a pot still you won't be able to make the quality neutral you would with a reflux or continuous still. That doesn't necessarily mean that you can't get close to a neutral spirit that could be used for flavoring, but if it was that simple, we would all be recommending the cheaper pot still.
A pot still is great for many recipes such as authentic bourbon, whisky, rum, etc. This essentially removes the need to purchase essences from your homebrew shop or mixes for your vodka.
- If I don't need to buy essences, then why would I even bother spending the money on a continuous still or even reflux still?
That's a good question. The reason people use a continuous still (or even reflux still) is because it is very easy to produce a product superior to what you can buy commercially (which was our original goal). Then you can use it as vodka, a base for gin, in mixes, or with essences designed to emulate commercial spirits, including whiskeys or brandy.
Making a simple, sugar wash, is almost failproof, running it through the continuous still is something anyone can manage. Much like reading instructions on the packet of 2-minute noodles.
If you want to make a rum/whisky/etc to run through a pot still, you will need to make a wash that requires experience, and a lot of extra work, whether that is adding grains to the fermenter, or even mashing the grains for a specific time and temperature, your risk of failure is significant when you have no experience.
We've covered the basic startup costs for each type of product so far.
The more expensive reflux still, the convenient continuous still, and the cheapest pot still. Now, that's not to say you can’t build a cheap reflux still (or find a used one for sale), but as a guide, that is what you are looking for in a nice quality still.
So, for argument's sake, you have a limit to spend on equipment and you have decided that you don't care, you're going to get a still no matter what.
-Okay. I've got my still decided. Do I get free alcohol now?
It doesn't quite work like that, sorry. Depending on the still you chose, you will need to make a wash to run through the still.
-Let me guess...more money?
Correct! You're learning fast. You will need a fermenter or a barrel that you can use to make your wash in. These pop up all the time on gumtree, eBay, etc or you might be able to pick one up for cheap (<$30) at your homebrew shop. Really it can be any size, but the bigger the better, you can always make half batches, but you cannot make more than what you have space for. HDPE 200L(55gal) barrels are cheap and handy.
-Easy enough...
Now, you can go to the homebrew shop and drop $10 on some turbo yeast, $10 on some sugar and go home and follow the directions, but chances are it won't be what you're looking for.
We like to use basic recipes that don't rely on a super-yeast that was designed for making fuel.
There are simple recipes such as a Tomato Paste Wash which can be made for <$10 and will make a nice neutral spirit when run through a continuous or reflux still.
-That sounds fine. I've read some recipes and know what I want. Now do I get that sweet nectar?
We're almost there. We've covered the basic costs of equipment and recipes, but we haven't covered the other cost. Time.
For starters, you need to ferment the wash. This can take anywhere from 3-14 days, or even longer, depending on the conditions you ferment in. We will keep that time range for now so you can get an idea of how long this whole process takes.
You've got your wash, it has fermented out, and you're reading to distill it! It's the big day! You're prepared to distill your first wash.
-What do I do now?
Well, this is where the cutting edge of modern technology starts making a big difference. With a smart, automated, micro air-cooled reflux continuous still, you just drop in the feed tube, drop your waste tube in a waste bucket, place your collection jars, and turn on the still, you can get this done in less than 5 minutes, then you come back later to collect a jar of your sweet nectar...That’s it! done! However...
With a pot or reflux still, to get that authentic traditional experience, set aside the whole day, and get a good book.
First, we need to siphon off the wash so you don’t put sediment in the boiler, once filled, get everything set up. This is the quickest part so far. If you are good, you can get this done in less than 15 minutes. After your condenser hoses are attached, the wash is in the boiler and the still is clamped on the keg, we can turn on our gas or electric element.
-Wooo! Finally!! Wait.. my condenser hoses?
For a pot or reflux still, you will need a water supply to cool the alcohol vapors as they come out of the still. This can either be your garden hose or a pump in a rainwater tank or container. Obviously, these are more costs that you need to factor in. A pump is good for recirculating water, but then you need to invest in a pump ($50) and you need a container to hold a large volume of water. ($50+). Or if you want, you can run it straight out the tap, but that can get wasteful.
Obviously an air-cooled continuous still does not need water, it uses the incoming wash for most of the cooling.
-Okay, that's easy enough. Now, back to the distilling. So, how long will it be? 30mins? An hour?
If only...We need to discuss a couple more things first.
Stripping runs and Spirit runs.
-Who and what?!
A stripping run is a process of stripping all the alcohol out of your wash to create "low wines". This process depends on the type of still you run but can take anywhere from 2-6 hours. Maybe more. Once you have stripped the wash, you put your "low wines" back into the still for the spirit run.
A spirit run is a process of making a good quality end product out of your low wines. This process also depends on the equipment and can take anywhere from 4-12 hours. When you are finished, you will have something that is drinkable, once diluted to a sane ABV%.
-Okay, so that is a lot longer than I thought. Can't I just do a spirit run and not strip it?
Yes, you can. But even in a reflux still, you might not get as good a spirit as you would from doing a stripping run first, but it is possible to do and you will save the time of doing multiple runs. This is something that relates back to the first couple of questions of whether you want something easy or something that will be of great quality.
Fortunately a continuous still solve this stripping/spirit run dilemma as it includes a stripping run section (“Analyzer”) and a spirit run section (“Rectifier”) all in one still so it can run from an un-cleared wash without a need for siphoning to a something that is of great quality, all in one go – so easy - no fuss.
-Well, for a pot or reflux still that is a long process. Can I just start it up before work and when I come home turn it off?
No, no, and no!
Pot and reflux stills are manual batch stills, you have a lot of ethanol all boiling at vapor temperature, and a failing water line or leak can quickly fill the room with enough ethanol vapor to reach an explosive level(LEL). The still is dumb and cannot watch itself. You must watch the still and be in eyesight range at all times. You need to routinely check your water flow and your distillate flow rate (a sudden drop may indicate a leak or lack of water) You need to be there if anything goes wrong, and you need to change over the collection jars when they get full. And you need to switch off before the boiler boils dry - so no drinking and passing out on the job!
The traditional tools of this hobby require full involvement. If you can't make the commitment to spend a day with your pot and reflux still, you might want to consider a smart, automated, micro air-cooled reflux continuous still, it is both intrinsically safe (only boils a tiny amount of ethanol at a time, the feed is the coolant so if the coolant stops then so does the feed) and is fully automated (it is smart and watches itself). You can even set the run time so it won’t overflow the collection jar when it gets full. So you can set it up, so you can run a 200-liter barrel and all you do is spend 2 minutes a day to take off almost 2 liters of 90% ABV each day for 10 days, and if you forget a day it will automatically stop itself before it overflows or runs dry.
-Alright. So I know what I want to use, the wash I want to make. Is there anything else this will cost me?
There are a few other things you will need.
  1. An alcometer to measure your alcohol strength. *recommended
  2. A hydrometer to measure your wash sugar content. *Optional
  3. Privacy. You don't want everyone and their dog to know what you are doing! This is your little secret.
  4. Time and patience. This isn't a hobby that happens overnight. There is a lot of reading and questioning. There is a lot of time that will be spent just waiting for the wash to finish, or the still to do its thing.
-Are we done yet?
Yes. If you have gotten to this point, and you have still decided that you want a still even after all the costs and time involved, then you are on your way to a great hobby. As I have said throughout the write-up, we have only just touched the surface of the distilling world. There is a library worth of information that you can read, and most likely will need to read to get on your way to a final product.
Read through the topics in the sidebar and posts to learn more about the types of stills and how they work, keeping in mind the prices involved in getting them set up.
We don't want to scare you off, because we love doing this, it is very rewarding to sit down after a long day, sip on something that you have put money and time into, and just think "I made this." The feeling doesn't get any better.
You get to make exactly what you want, how you want, and for a cheaper cost than the stores, it just takes time and a start-up investment. I would like to personally wish you luck with your decision and hope that you take as much pride in your product as we all do here. Remember, read, read, and read. Ask, ask, and ask some more. You will find everything you will need here and more. Don't be afraid to ask a question, but most of the "beginner" questions you might have will be found right here.
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2023.06.10 09:54 dinkomaricic [H] Visage, Empyrion, Call To Arms, SCUM, Death's Stranding DC, SOD2 Juggernaut, Tower Unite, Control UE, Hell Let Loose, ETS2, Dusk, Mortuary Assistant, Friday 13th, B4B, Satisfactory, TABS, Hurtworld, Clone Drone In Danger Zone, SCP 5K & 100's more [W] Wishlist, Paypal (EU)

I'm from EU,so GAMES SHOULD work pretty much anywhere
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BUYER covers the FEES (if outside EU,EU F&F only)
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100% of my games keys are bought by me from official stores & I expect the same in return,so don't offer me keyshop games or game keys you got in a trade as I will decline
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List of games I have:
Also have the Earthquake Relief bundle but reddit wont let me write all the games cause my topic would be too big - just ask
7 Billion Humans
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Tracks The Train Set Game
Train Station Renovation
Treasure Hunter Simulator (X2)
Tropico 4
True Fear Forsaken Souls Part 1
Tyranny Deluxe Edition
Unexplored
Unloved
Unmetal
Unshaded
Vambrace Cold Soul
Vane
Velocibox
Verdun
Vikings Wolves Of Midgard
Visage
Volcanoids (X2)
V Rally 4
Wanderlust Travel Stories (GOG key)
Warhammer 40K Chaos Gate Daemonhunters NEW
Warhammer End Times Vermintide
Warhammer Vermintide 2 NEW
Warlock Master Of The Arcane
Warpips
Warsaw
Wasteland 2 Director's Cut
We Are The Dwarves
We Should Talk
Western Press
We Were Here Together
When Ski Lifts Go Wrong
Where The Water Tastes Like Wine
While True: Learn() Chief Technology Officer Edition
White Day: A Labyrinth Named School
Windjammers 2 NEW
Wooden Sen'SeY
Worms Rumble + Legends DLC
Wrath Aeon Of Ruin (X2)
XCOM Complete Pack
Xenoraid The First Space War
X Morph Defense + European Assault + Last Bastion + Survival Of The Fittest (1 key for all)
XIII Classic
Xuan-Yuan Sword The Gate Of Firmament
Yet Another Zombie Defense HD
Ylands Exploration Pack
Yoku's Island Express
Yooka-Laylee And The Impossible Lair
Zack 2 Celestine's Map
ZIC Zombies In City
Zombie Army Trilogy
submitted by dinkomaricic to SteamGameSwap [link] [comments]

2023.06.10 09:50 dinkomaricic [H] Visage, Empyrion, Call To Arms, SCUM, Death's Stranding DC, SOD2 Juggernaut, Tower Unite, Control UE, Hell Let Loose, ETS2, Dusk, Mortuary Assistant, Friday 13th, B4B, Satisfactory, TABS, Hurtworld, Clone Drone In Danger Zone, SCP 5K & 100's more [W] Wishlist, Paypal (EU)

I'm from EU,so GAMES SHOULD work pretty much anywhere
NOT BUYING GAMES,ONLY TRADES - games for games or selling for paypal
No interest in TF2 keys,CSGO cases or ANY other virtual currency
BUYER covers the FEES (if outside EU,EU F&F only)
My Steam account so you don't offer me something I own
My Wishlist
My SGSRep
My IGSRep
Only looking for Steam games - so don't offer origin,uplay,rockstar,bnet or ANY other launcher
100% of my games keys are bought by me from official stores & I expect the same in return,so don't offer me keyshop games or game keys you got in a trade as I will decline
I retain the right to ask for proof of ownership for ANY game I want - just like YOU have the right to ask me the same
List of games I have:
Also have the Earthquake Relief bundle but reddit wont let me write all the games cause my topic would be too big - just ask
7 Billion Humans
8Doors Arum's Afterlife Adventure
10 Second Ninja X
60 Seconds!
112 Operator
140
198X
911 Operator
A Case Of Distrust
A Year Of Rain
Absolver
Aeolis Tournament
Age Of Wonders III
Ageless
Airport CEO
AI War 2
Alien Spidy
Aliens Vs Predator Collection
All You Can Eat
Almost There The Platformer
American Fugitive
Amnesia A Machine For Pigs + The Dark Descent (1 key for both games)
Amnesia Fortnight 2012
Amnesia Fortnight 2014
Amnesia Fortnight 2017
Amnesia Rebirth (X2)
Among Us (X2)
Ancestors The Humankind Odyssey (EU & Africa lock)
Aragami (X2)
Archamon
Army Men RTS
Attack Of The Earthlings
Automobilista
Aven Colony
Avernum 3 Ruined World
Azkend 2 The World Beneath
Back 4 Blood (EU region lock)
Backbone
Band Of Defenders
Banished
Baseball Riot
Batora Lost Haven
Battlestar Galactica Deadlock
Behind The Frame Finest Scenery NEW
Beholder 2
Bendy And The Dark Revival (X2)
Bendy And The Ink Machine
Betrayer (delisted)
Between The Stars (X2)
Beyond Eyes
Beyond The Wire
Bionic Commando
Bionic Commando Rearmed
Bird Of Light
Black Paradox
Blasphemous
Bloodstained Ritual Of The Night
Bohemian Killing
Book Of Demons
Bomber Crew Deluxe
Borderlands 3 + Director's Cut (ask about region locks)
Borderlands 3 Super Deluxe Edition NEW (ask about region locks)
Boreal Blade
Broken Age (X2)
Brothers A Tale Of Two Sons (X2)
Builder Simulator NEW
Butcher
Call Of Juarez
Call Of The Sea (X2)
Call To Arms Basic Edition
Call To Arms Gates Of Hell Ostfront
Car Mechanic Simulator 2018
Chenso Club
Chernobylite Enhanced Edition
Cities In Motion 2
CivCity Rome
Clone Drone In The Danger Zone
Clouds & Sheep 2
Coffin Dodgers
Cook Serve Delicious 3
Company Of Heroes Complete Edition
Control Ultimate Edition
Corridor Z
Cosmic Osmo And The World Beyond The Mackerel
Crash Drive 3
Creatures Inc
Crookz The Big Heist
Crossbow Bloodnight
Crusader Kings Complete
Crying Suns
Dagon The Eldritch Box
Danger Scavenger
Day Of Infamy
Dead Age
Dead In Vinland
Deadly Premonition Director's Cut
Deadbeat Heroes (X2)
Dear Ester Landmark Edition
Death Stranding Director's Cut
Death Squared
Deep Dungeons Of Doom
Deep Sky Derelicts
Demon Turf
Deployment
Desert Child
Destiny 2 Beyond Light NEW
Diaries Of A Spaceport Janitor
Dicey Dungeons (X2)
Dimension Drifter
Distraint 2 + Soundtrack
Divekick
Dog Sled Saga
Double Fine Adventures Complete Series Deluxe
Downwell
Drawful 2
Draw Slasher
Dreadlands
Dread X Collection
Driftland The Magic Revival
Dry Downing
Duke Nukem Forever Collection
Dungeon Marathon
Dungeon Of The Endless
Dungeons 2
Dungeons 2 Complete
Dungeons 3
Dusk
Dwarfs!?
Eador Imperium
EarthX
Eastside Hockey Manager
ECHO
Edge Of Eternity
Effie
Elderborn
Eldest Souls
Elden Path Of The Forgotten
Embr
Emily Is Away
Empyrion Galactic Survival
Epic Manager
E.T. Armies Deluxe Edition
Etherborn (X2)
Euro Truck Simulator 2
Europa Universalis IV
Evergarden
Expeditions Viking
F1 2018 (delisted)
Family Man
Fantasy Blacksmith
Fantasy Versus
Farmer's Dynasty
Farming Simulator 17
FIA European Truck Racing
Figment (X2)
Finding Paradise
Fire Ungh's Quest
First Class Trouble
Five Dates
Fling To The Finish
Fluffy Horde
Fobia St. Dinfna Hotel
Forgive Me Father
Framed Collection (X2)
Friday the 13th: The Game
Fun With Ragdolls The Game
Fury Unleashed (X2)
Gang Beasts
Garage Bad Trip (X2)
Gas Guzzlers Extreme
Gas Station Simulator
Gauge
Generation Zero NEW
Ghostrunner
Giana Sisters Twisted Dreams + Rise Of The Owlverlord
Gloria Victis NEW
GNOG
Go Home Dinosaurs!
Goat Of Duty
Goetia (X2)
Going Under (X2)
Golden Light
Golf Gang
GoNNER
Grand Ages Medieval
Grand Pigeon's Duty
Greak Memories Of Azur
Gremlins Inc.
Grip Combat Racing + Cygon + Nyvoss + Terra + Vintek DLC (X2)
Guts And Glory (X2)
Hack'n'Slash
Haiku The Robot (X2)
Hamilton's Great Adventure
Hammerfight
Headlander
Heal
Hell Let Loose
Hellblade Senua's Sacrifice
Hello Neighbor
Hellbound
Hero Defense
Hero's Hour (EU region lock)
Hexologic
Hidden & Dangerous Action Pack
Hidden & Dangerous 2 Courage Under Fire
Hive Jump (X2)
Hiveswap Act 2
Hiveswap Friend Sim (X2)
Hollow Knight
Homeworld Deserts Of Kharak
Hotshot Racing
Hot Tin Roof The Cat That Wore A Fedora
Hot Wheels Unleashed
Hover (X2)
Human Resource Machine
Hurtworld
I Am Bread
I Am Not A Monster First Contact
Ice Lakes
If Found...
Ikenfell
Impact Winter (delisted)
In Between
Industria
Inexistence Rebirth
Infinite Air With Mark McMorris (delisted)
Influent
Inmost
Interplanetary Enhanced Edition
Intruder
Iron Danger
Iron Harvest
Jack Axe
Jalopy
Jet Set Knights
Juanito Arcade Mayhem
Jump Stars
Jurassic World Evolution
Just Die Already
KartKraft
Kathy Rain Directors Cut
Keep Talking And Nobody Explodes (X2)
Killing Floor 2 Digital Deluxe NEW
Kill To Collect
Kingdom Classic (X2)
Kingdom New Lands
Kingdoms Of Amalur Re-Reckoning Fate Edition
King Oddball
Labyrinthine
Last Oasis
Last Tide
Lawn Mowing Simulator
Lead And Gold Gangs Of Wild West (X2)
Legacy Of Dorn Herald Of Oblivion (delisted)
Legend Of Keepers Career Of A Dungeon Master
Leisure Suit Larry Retro Bundle (1 to 7)
Lethal League Blaze
Liberated (GOG key)
Lifeless Planet Premium Edition
Light Fall
Little Big Workshop
Lone Fungus
Lost Planet Complete Pack
Lost Ruins
Lust For Darkness
Lust From Beyond M Edition
Magicka
Magrunner Dark Pulse
Maid Of Sker
Main Assembly (X2)
Mars Horizon
Masquerade The Baubles Of Doom
Max Payne 3 (Rockstar Launcher)
Mega Man Legacy Collection
Midnight Ghost Hunt NEW
Midnight Protocol
Mind Scanners
Mini Metro
Miscreated (X2)
Monster Crown
Moon Hunters
Morbid The Seven Acolytes
Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021
Motorsport Manager
Mount And Blade Warband
My Lovely Daughter
Naruto To Boruto Shinobi Striker
Nascar Heat 5 Ultimate
Nebuchadnezzar
NecroVisioN Lost Company
NecroWorn
Neighbours Back From Hell
Neo Cab
Neon Abyss
NeuroVoider
Neverout
Nickelodeon All Star Brawl (X2)
Ninjin Clash Of Carrots
No Time To Relax
Northgard NEW
Not Tonight
Obduction
Observation
Octahedron
Odyssey The Story Of Science
Of Orcs And Men
Old School Musical
OlliOlli World Rad Edition
On Rusty Trails
One Finger Death Punch 2
Onikira Demon Killer
Operation Tango NEW
Orbital Racer
Orcs Must Die 2 Complete
Original War
Orwell Ignorance Is Strength
Out Of Reach Treasure Royal
Overlord II
Overpass
Override Mech City Brawl
Oxenfree
Pacer
Paint The Town Red
Paper Fire Rookie
Paradise Lost
Path Of Giants
Paw Paw Paw
Payday 2 + Big Mike mask
Peaky Blinders Mastermind (delisted)
Penarium
People Playground (X2)
Perfect Heist 2
PGA Tour 2K21 (X2)
Phoenix Point Year One Edition
Pikuniku
Pine
Pinstripe
Pixplode
Plane Mechanic Simulator
Poöf
Popup Dungeon
Post Void
Pound Of Ground (X2)
PowerSlave Exhumed
Prehistoric Kingdom
Primal Carnage Extinction (X2)
Project Cars GOTY (delisted)
Project Hospital
Project Warlock
Propnight
Pulsar The Lost Colony NEW
Pumped BMX+
Punch Club
Purrfect Date
Quest Of Dungeons
RAD (X2)
Radio Commander
Rad Rodgers Radical Edition
Railroad Tycoon 2
Railroad Tycoon 3
Railway Empire
Raji An Ancient Epic
Rebel Cops
Rec Center Tycoon
Red Faction Armageddon
Red Solstice 2 Survivors
Redout Enhanced Edition
Re-Legion
Remothered Broken Porcelain
Resident Evil 4
Resident Evil Revelations (X2)
Resident Evil Revelations 2 Deluxe Edition
Retimed
Retrowave
Reventure
Revita
Ring Of Pain
Rings Of Saturn
Riot Civil Unrest
Rise Of Industry
Rise Of Insanity
Riven The Sequel To MYST
Roarr! The Adventures Of Rampage Rex
Roboquest
Rogue Heroes Ruins Of Tasos
Rogue Lords
Rogue Stormers
Rover Mechanic Simulator
RPG Maker VX
Rustler
Sable
Salt And Sanctuary
Satellite Reign
Satisfactory
Saturday Morning RPG
Say No! More
SCP 5K
SCUM (X2)
ScourgeBringer
Serious Sam 2
Serious Sam BFE (X2)
Serious Sam Classics Revolution
Serious Sam Double D XXL
Serious Sam HD The First & Second Encounter (1 key for both)
Serious Sam HD The Second Encounter Legend Of The Beast
Serious Sam HD The Second Encounter Serious 8
Serious Sam Kamikaze Attack
Serious Sam The Random Encounter
Serious Sam Bogus Detour
Shadow Tactics Aiko's Choice
Shady Part Of Me
She Remembered Caterpillars
She Will Punish Them
Shing!
Shock Troopers
Shogun's Empire Hex Commander
Shuyan Saga
Sid Meier's Civilization VI
Sid Meier's Railroads
Simulacra Collection
Skeletal Avenger
Skullgirls 2nd Encore
Skully
Slime Rancher
Slinger VR
Smoke And Sacrifice (X2)
Sniper Elite V2 Remastered
Sniper Elite 4 Deluxe + Season Pass
SOMA
Song Of Iron
Soulblight
Spacebase DF-9
Space Hulk Ascension (delisted)
Sparkle 2
Sparkle Unleashed
Spellcaster University
Spelunx And The Caves Of Mr. Seudo
Spiritfarer Farewell Edition NEW
Stacking
Starsand (X2)
Star Wars Jedi Knight Jedi Academy
Star Wars Knights Of The Old Republic
Stasis
State Of Decay 2 Juggernaut Edition
State Of Mind
Steel Rats
Stick Fight The Game (X3)
Stories Untold
Streets Of Fury EX
Strider (X2)
Struggling
Stubbs The Zombie
Styx Shards Of Darkness
Submerged Hidden Depths
Suchart Genius Artist Simulator
Super Indie Carts
Super Magbot
Supraland
SurrounDead (X2)
Surviving The Aftermath
Suzerain
Swag And Sorcery
Sword Legacy Omen
Swords And Soldiers 2 Shawarmageddon
Swords And Souls Neverseen (X2)
Syberia II
Syberia 3 Deluxe Edition
Syberia The World Before
Syndrome
System Shock Enhanced Edition
Table Manners The Physics-Based Dating Game
Tabletop Playground
Tacoma
Take On Helicopters
Tales From Candlekeep Tomb Of Annihilation (delisted)
Tales Of Monkey Island Complete
Talisman Digital Edition + City,Frostmarch,Sacred Pool (trading only as a bundle)
Talisman Origins
Tank Mechanic Simulator
Telefrag VR
Teleglitch Die More Edition
Tennis In The Face
Tennis World Tour (X2)
Tesla Force
Tesla Vs Lovecraft
Tharsis (X2)
The Amazing American Circus
The Ambassador Fractured Timelines
The Adventure Pals
The Battle Of Polytopia Moonrise Deluxe
The Blackout Club
The Citadel
The Count Lucador
The Free Ones (delisted)
The Golf Club 2019 featuring PGA Tour
theHunter Call Of The Wild (X3)
The Invisible Hand NEW
The Journey Down Chapter Three
The King Of Fighters 2002 Unlimited Match
The Last Blade
The Life And Suffering Of Sir Brante
The Long Dark Survival Edition (X2)
The Manhole Masterpiece Edition
The Mims Beginning
The Mortuary Assistant
The Night Of The Rabbit
The Serpent Rogue
The Signifier Director's Cut
The Textorcist The Story of Ray Bibbia (X2)
The Uncertain Last Quiet Day (X2)
The USB Stick Found In The Grass
The Walking Dead Season 1 + 400 Days
The Wild Eight (X2)
They Bleed Pixels
Think Of The Children
This War Of Mine
Thronebreaker The Witcher Tales
THOTH
Through The Darkest Of Times
Timeshift
Time Recoil
Titan Quest Anniversary
Toejam & Earl Back In The Groove
TOEM
Tohu
Tools Up
Tooth And Tail (X2)
Torchlight (X2)
Total Tank Simulator
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator
Toto Temple Deluxe
Tower Of Time (X2)
Tower Unite
Townscaper (X2)
Townsmen A Kingdom Rebuilt
Toybox Turbos
Tracks The Train Set Game
Train Station Renovation
Treasure Hunter Simulator (X2)
Tropico 4
True Fear Forsaken Souls Part 1
Tyranny Deluxe Edition
Unexplored
Unloved
Unmetal
Unshaded
Vambrace Cold Soul
Vane
Velocibox
Verdun
Vikings Wolves Of Midgard
Visage
Volcanoids (X2)
V Rally 4
Wanderlust Travel Stories (GOG key)
Warhammer 40K Chaos Gate Daemonhunters NEW
Warhammer End Times Vermintide
Warhammer Vermintide 2 NEW
Warlock Master Of The Arcane
Warpips
Warsaw
Wasteland 2 Director's Cut
We Are The Dwarves
We Should Talk
Western Press
We Were Here Together
When Ski Lifts Go Wrong
Where The Water Tastes Like Wine
While True: Learn() Chief Technology Officer Edition
White Day: A Labyrinth Named School
Windjammers 2 NEW
Wooden Sen'SeY
Worms Rumble + Legends DLC
Wrath Aeon Of Ruin (X2)
XCOM Complete Pack
Xenoraid The First Space War
X Morph Defense + European Assault + Last Bastion + Survival Of The Fittest (1 key for all)
XIII Classic
Xuan-Yuan Sword The Gate Of Firmament
Yet Another Zombie Defense HD
Ylands Exploration Pack
Yoku's Island Express
Yooka-Laylee And The Impossible Lair
Zack 2 Celestine's Map
ZIC Zombies In City
Zombie Army Trilogy
submitted by dinkomaricic to indiegameswap [link] [comments]

2023.06.10 09:44 dinkomaricic [H] Visage, Empyrion, Call To Arms, SCUM, Death's Stranding DC, SOD2 Juggernaut, Tower Unite, Control UE, Hell Let Loose, ETS2, Dusk, Mortuary Assistant, Friday 13th, B4B, Satisfactory, TABS, Hurtworld, Clone Drone In Danger Zone, SCP 5K & 100's more [W] Wishlist, Paypal (EU)

I'm from EU,so GAMES SHOULD work pretty much anywhere
NOT BUYING GAMES,ONLY TRADES - games for games or selling for paypal
No interest in TF2 keys,CSGO cases or ANY other virtual currency
BUYER covers the FEES (if outside EU,EU F&F only)
My Steam account so you don't offer me something I own
My Wishlist
My SGSRep
My IGSRep
​
​
Only looking for Steam games - so don't offer origin,uplay,rockstar,bnet or ANY other launcher
100% of my games keys are bought by me from official stores & I expect the same in return,so don't offer me keyshop games or game keys you got in a trade as I will decline
I retain the right to ask for proof of ownership for ANY game I want - just like YOU have the right to ask me the same
​
​
List of games I have:
Also have the Earthquake Relief bundle but reddit wont let me write all the games cause my topic would be too big - just ask
7 Billion Humans
8Doors Arum's Afterlife Adventure
10 Second Ninja X
60 Seconds!
112 Operator
140
198X
911 Operator
A Case Of Distrust
A Year Of Rain
Absolver
Aeolis Tournament
Age Of Wonders III
Ageless
Airport CEO
AI War 2
Alien Spidy
Aliens Vs Predator Collection
All You Can Eat
Almost There The Platformer
American Fugitive
Amnesia A Machine For Pigs + The Dark Descent (1 key for both games)
Amnesia Fortnight 2012
Amnesia Fortnight 2014
Amnesia Fortnight 2017
Amnesia Rebirth (X2)
Among Us (X2)
Ancestors The Humankind Odyssey (EU & Africa lock)
Aragami (X2)
Archamon
Army Men RTS
Attack Of The Earthlings
Automobilista
Aven Colony
Avernum 3 Ruined World
Azkend 2 The World Beneath
Back 4 Blood (EU region lock)
Backbone
Band Of Defenders
Banished
Baseball Riot
Batora Lost Haven
Battlestar Galactica Deadlock
Behind The Frame Finest Scenery NEW
Beholder 2
Bendy And The Dark Revival (X2)
Bendy And The Ink Machine
Betrayer (delisted)
Between The Stars (X2)
Beyond Eyes
Beyond The Wire
Bionic Commando
Bionic Commando Rearmed
Bird Of Light
Black Paradox
Blasphemous
Bloodstained Ritual Of The Night
Bohemian Killing
Book Of Demons
Bomber Crew Deluxe
Borderlands 3 + Director's Cut (ask about region locks)
Borderlands 3 Super Deluxe Edition NEW (ask about region locks)
Boreal Blade
Broken Age (X2)
Brothers A Tale Of Two Sons (X2)
Builder Simulator NEW
Butcher
Call Of Juarez
Call Of The Sea (X2)
Call To Arms Basic Edition
Call To Arms Gates Of Hell Ostfront
Car Mechanic Simulator 2018
Chenso Club
Chernobylite Enhanced Edition
Cities In Motion 2
CivCity Rome
Clone Drone In The Danger Zone
Clouds & Sheep 2
Coffin Dodgers
Cook Serve Delicious 3
Company Of Heroes Complete Edition
Control Ultimate Edition
Corridor Z
Cosmic Osmo And The World Beyond The Mackerel
Crash Drive 3
Creatures Inc
Crookz The Big Heist
Crossbow Bloodnight
Crusader Kings Complete
Crying Suns
Dagon The Eldritch Box
Danger Scavenger
Day Of Infamy
Dead Age
Dead In Vinland
Deadly Premonition Director's Cut
Deadbeat Heroes (X2)
Dear Ester Landmark Edition
Death Stranding Director's Cut
Death Squared
Deep Dungeons Of Doom
Deep Sky Derelicts
Demon Turf
Deployment
Desert Child
Destiny 2 Beyond Light NEW
Diaries Of A Spaceport Janitor
Dicey Dungeons (X2)
Dimension Drifter
Distraint 2 + Soundtrack
Divekick
Dog Sled Saga
Double Fine Adventures Complete Series Deluxe
Downwell
Drawful 2
Draw Slasher
Dreadlands
Dread X Collection
Driftland The Magic Revival
Dry Downing
Duke Nukem Forever Collection
Dungeon Marathon
Dungeon Of The Endless
Dungeons 2
Dungeons 2 Complete
Dungeons 3
Dusk
Dwarfs!?
Eador Imperium
EarthX
Eastside Hockey Manager
ECHO
Edge Of Eternity
Effie
Elderborn
Eldest Souls
Elden Path Of The Forgotten
Embr
Emily Is Away
Empyrion Galactic Survival
Epic Manager
E.T. Armies Deluxe Edition
Etherborn (X2)
Euro Truck Simulator 2
Europa Universalis IV
Evergarden
Expeditions Viking
F1 2018 (delisted)
Family Man
Fantasy Blacksmith
Fantasy Versus
Farmer's Dynasty
Farming Simulator 17
FIA European Truck Racing
Figment (X2)
Finding Paradise
Fire Ungh's Quest
First Class Trouble
Five Dates
Fling To The Finish
Fluffy Horde
Fobia St. Dinfna Hotel
Forgive Me Father
Framed Collection (X2)
Friday the 13th: The Game
Fun With Ragdolls The Game
Fury Unleashed (X2)
Gang Beasts
Garage Bad Trip (X2)
Gas Guzzlers Extreme
Gas Station Simulator
Gauge
Generation Zero NEW
Ghostrunner
Giana Sisters Twisted Dreams + Rise Of The Owlverlord
Gloria Victis NEW
GNOG
Go Home Dinosaurs!
Goat Of Duty
Goetia (X2)
Going Under (X2)
Golden Light
Golf Gang
GoNNER
Grand Ages Medieval
Grand Pigeon's Duty
Greak Memories Of Azur
Gremlins Inc.
Grip Combat Racing + Cygon + Nyvoss + Terra + Vintek DLC (X2)
Guts And Glory (X2)
Hack'n'Slash
Haiku The Robot (X2)
Hamilton's Great Adventure
Hammerfight
Headlander
Heal
Hell Let Loose
Hellblade Senua's Sacrifice
Hello Neighbor
Hellbound
Hero Defense
Hero's Hour (EU region lock)
Hexologic
Hidden & Dangerous Action Pack
Hidden & Dangerous 2 Courage Under Fire
Hive Jump (X2)
Hiveswap Act 2
Hiveswap Friend Sim (X2)
Hollow Knight
Homeworld Deserts Of Kharak
Hotshot Racing
Hot Tin Roof The Cat That Wore A Fedora
Hot Wheels Unleashed
Hover (X2)
Human Resource Machine
Hurtworld
I Am Bread
I Am Not A Monster First Contact
Ice Lakes
If Found...
Ikenfell
Impact Winter (delisted)
In Between
Industria
Inexistence Rebirth
Infinite Air With Mark McMorris (delisted)
Influent
Inmost
Interplanetary Enhanced Edition
Intruder
Iron Danger
Iron Harvest
Jack Axe
Jalopy
Jet Set Knights
Juanito Arcade Mayhem
Jump Stars
Jurassic World Evolution
Just Die Already
KartKraft
Kathy Rain Directors Cut
Keep Talking And Nobody Explodes (X2)
Killing Floor 2 Digital Deluxe NEW
Kill To Collect
Kingdom Classic (X2)
Kingdom New Lands
Kingdoms Of Amalur Re-Reckoning Fate Edition
King Oddball
Labyrinthine
Last Oasis
Last Tide
Lawn Mowing Simulator
Lead And Gold Gangs Of Wild West (X2)
Legacy Of Dorn Herald Of Oblivion (delisted)
Legend Of Keepers Career Of A Dungeon Master
Leisure Suit Larry Retro Bundle (1 to 7)
Lethal League Blaze
Liberated (GOG key)
Lifeless Planet Premium Edition
Light Fall
Little Big Workshop
Lone Fungus
Lost Planet Complete Pack
Lost Ruins
Lust For Darkness
Lust From Beyond M Edition
Magicka
Magrunner Dark Pulse
Maid Of Sker
Main Assembly (X2)
Mars Horizon
Masquerade The Baubles Of Doom
Max Payne 3 (Rockstar Launcher)
Mega Man Legacy Collection
Midnight Ghost Hunt NEW
Midnight Protocol
Mind Scanners
Mini Metro
Miscreated (X2)
Monster Crown
Moon Hunters
Morbid The Seven Acolytes
Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021
Motorsport Manager
Mount And Blade Warband
My Lovely Daughter
Naruto To Boruto Shinobi Striker
Nascar Heat 5 Ultimate
Nebuchadnezzar
NecroVisioN Lost Company
NecroWorn
Neighbours Back From Hell
Neo Cab
Neon Abyss
NeuroVoider
Neverout
Nickelodeon All Star Brawl (X2)
Ninjin Clash Of Carrots
No Time To Relax
Northgard NEW
Not Tonight
Obduction
Observation
Octahedron
Odyssey The Story Of Science
Of Orcs And Men
Old School Musical
OlliOlli World Rad Edition
On Rusty Trails
One Finger Death Punch 2
Onikira Demon Killer
Operation Tango NEW
Orbital Racer
Orcs Must Die 2 Complete
Original War
Orwell Ignorance Is Strength
Out Of Reach Treasure Royal
Overlord II
Overpass
Override Mech City Brawl
Oxenfree
Pacer
Paint The Town Red
Paper Fire Rookie
Paradise Lost
Path Of Giants
Paw Paw Paw
Payday 2 + Big Mike mask
Peaky Blinders Mastermind (delisted)
Penarium
People Playground (X2)
Perfect Heist 2
PGA Tour 2K21 (X2)
Phoenix Point Year One Edition
Pikuniku
Pine
Pinstripe
Pixplode
Plane Mechanic Simulator
Poöf
Popup Dungeon
Post Void
Pound Of Ground (X2)
PowerSlave Exhumed
Prehistoric Kingdom
Primal Carnage Extinction (X2)
Project Cars GOTY (delisted)
Project Hospital
Project Warlock
Propnight
Pulsar The Lost Colony NEW
Pumped BMX+
Punch Club
Purrfect Date
Quest Of Dungeons
RAD (X2)
Radio Commander
Rad Rodgers Radical Edition
Railroad Tycoon 2
Railroad Tycoon 3
Railway Empire
Raji An Ancient Epic
Rebel Cops
Rec Center Tycoon
Red Faction Armageddon
Red Solstice 2 Survivors
Redout Enhanced Edition
Re-Legion
Remothered Broken Porcelain
Resident Evil 4
Resident Evil Revelations (X2)
Resident Evil Revelations 2 Deluxe Edition
Retimed
Retrowave
Reventure
Revita
Ring Of Pain
Rings Of Saturn
Riot Civil Unrest
Rise Of Industry
Rise Of Insanity
Riven The Sequel To MYST
Roarr! The Adventures Of Rampage Rex
Roboquest
Rogue Heroes Ruins Of Tasos
Rogue Lords
Rogue Stormers
Rover Mechanic Simulator
RPG Maker VX
Rustler
Sable
Salt And Sanctuary
Satellite Reign
Satisfactory
Saturday Morning RPG
Say No! More
SCP 5K
SCUM (X2)
ScourgeBringer
Serious Sam 2
Serious Sam BFE (X2)
Serious Sam Classics Revolution
Serious Sam Double D XXL
Serious Sam HD The First & Second Encounter (1 key for both)
Serious Sam HD The Second Encounter Legend Of The Beast
Serious Sam HD The Second Encounter Serious 8
Serious Sam Kamikaze Attack
Serious Sam The Random Encounter
Serious Sam Bogus Detour
Shadow Tactics Aiko's Choice
Shady Part Of Me
She Remembered Caterpillars
She Will Punish Them
Shing!
Shock Troopers
Shogun's Empire Hex Commander
Shuyan Saga
Sid Meier's Civilization VI
Sid Meier's Railroads
Simulacra Collection
Skeletal Avenger
Skullgirls 2nd Encore
Skully
Slime Rancher
Slinger VR
Smoke And Sacrifice (X2)
Sniper Elite V2 Remastered
Sniper Elite 4 Deluxe + Season Pass
SOMA
Song Of Iron
Soulblight
Spacebase DF-9
Space Hulk Ascension (delisted)
Sparkle 2
Sparkle Unleashed
Spellcaster University
Spelunx And The Caves Of Mr. Seudo
Spiritfarer Farewell Edition NEW
Stacking
Starsand (X2)
Star Wars Jedi Knight Jedi Academy
Star Wars Knights Of The Old Republic
Stasis
State Of Decay 2 Juggernaut Edition
State Of Mind
Steel Rats
Stick Fight The Game (X3)
Stories Untold
Streets Of Fury EX
Strider (X2)
Struggling
Stubbs The Zombie
Styx Shards Of Darkness
Submerged Hidden Depths
Suchart Genius Artist Simulator
Super Indie Carts
Super Magbot
Supraland
SurrounDead (X2)
Surviving The Aftermath
Suzerain
Swag And Sorcery
Sword Legacy Omen
Swords And Soldiers 2 Shawarmageddon
Swords And Souls Neverseen (X2)
Syberia II
Syberia 3 Deluxe Edition
Syberia The World Before
Syndrome
System Shock Enhanced Edition
Table Manners The Physics-Based Dating Game
Tabletop Playground
Tacoma
Take On Helicopters
Tales From Candlekeep Tomb Of Annihilation (delisted)
Tales Of Monkey Island Complete
Talisman Digital Edition + City,Frostmarch,Sacred Pool (trading only as a bundle)
Talisman Origins
Tank Mechanic Simulator
Telefrag VR
Teleglitch Die More Edition
Tennis In The Face
Tennis World Tour (X2)
Tesla Force
Tesla Vs Lovecraft
Tharsis (X2)
The Amazing American Circus
The Ambassador Fractured Timelines
The Adventure Pals
The Battle Of Polytopia Moonrise Deluxe
The Blackout Club
The Citadel
The Count Lucador
The Free Ones (delisted)
The Golf Club 2019 featuring PGA Tour
theHunter Call Of The Wild (X3)
The Invisible Hand NEW
The Journey Down Chapter Three
The King Of Fighters 2002 Unlimited Match
The Last Blade
The Life And Suffering Of Sir Brante
The Long Dark Survival Edition (X2)
The Manhole Masterpiece Edition
The Mims Beginning
The Mortuary Assistant
The Night Of The Rabbit
The Serpent Rogue
The Signifier Director's Cut
The Textorcist The Story of Ray Bibbia (X2)
The Uncertain Last Quiet Day (X2)
The USB Stick Found In The Grass
The Walking Dead Season 1 + 400 Days
The Wild Eight (X2)
They Bleed Pixels
Think Of The Children
This War Of Mine
Thronebreaker The Witcher Tales
THOTH
Through The Darkest Of Times
Timeshift
Time Recoil
Titan Quest Anniversary
Toejam & Earl Back In The Groove
TOEM
Tohu
Tools Up
Tooth And Tail (X2)
Torchlight (X2)
Total Tank Simulator
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator
Toto Temple Deluxe
Tower Of Time (X2)
Tower Unite
Townscaper (X2)
Townsmen A Kingdom Rebuilt
Toybox Turbos
Tracks The Train Set Game
Train Station Renovation
Treasure Hunter Simulator (X2)
Tropico 4
True Fear Forsaken Souls Part 1
Tyranny Deluxe Edition
Unexplored
Unloved
Unmetal
Unshaded
Vambrace Cold Soul
Vane
Velocibox
Verdun
Vikings Wolves Of Midgard
Visage
Volcanoids (X2)
V Rally 4
Wanderlust Travel Stories (GOG key)
Warhammer 40K Chaos Gate Daemonhunters NEW
Warhammer End Times Vermintide
Warhammer Vermintide 2 NEW
Warlock Master Of The Arcane
Warpips
Warsaw
Wasteland 2 Director's Cut
We Are The Dwarves
We Should Talk
Western Press
We Were Here Together
When Ski Lifts Go Wrong
Where The Water Tastes Like Wine
While True: Learn() Chief Technology Officer Edition
White Day: A Labyrinth Named School
Windjammers 2 NEW
Wooden Sen'SeY
Worms Rumble + Legends DLC
Wrath Aeon Of Ruin (X2)
XCOM Complete Pack
Xenoraid The First Space War
X Morph Defense + European Assault + Last Bastion + Survival Of The Fittest (1 key for all)
XIII Classic
Xuan-Yuan Sword The Gate Of Firmament
Yet Another Zombie Defense HD
Ylands Exploration Pack
Yoku's Island Express
Yooka-Laylee And The Impossible Lair
Zack 2 Celestine's Map
ZIC Zombies In City
Zombie Army Trilogy
submitted by dinkomaricic to GameTrade [link] [comments]

2023.06.10 04:51 docXfamas [H] June Choice and other bundled games [W] Paypal, TF2 keys

Note:

HAVE

JUNE 2023 games
MAY MADNESS MULTIPLAYER
MAY 2023 games
APRIL 2023 games
MARCH 2023 games
Safe in Our World Charity Bundle 2023
FEBRUARY 2023 games
Survival Instinct Bundle
JANUARY 2023 games
DECEMBER 2022 Monthly Bundle Leftovers
Black Friday VR Voyager's Pack
OTHER KEYS
NOVEMBER 2022 Monthly Bundle Leftovers
2K MEGAHITS BUNDLE
LIST OF ALL HB LEFTOVERS -
LIST OF ALL FANATICAL LEFTOVERS -
AS OTHER KEYS (UNSURE IF UNUSED SO I WILL GO FIRST)

WANT

PayPal
MY REP Wishlist
Gems
TF2 keys/ Csgo Cases
submitted by docXfamas to SteamGameSwap [link] [comments]

2023.06.10 03:44 KC_J0ker Need to replace AC Compressor.

So I have a 2013 Chevy Cruze LS 1.8 Gas I need to replace AC Compressor not sure what to buy. I know I need recharge kit just not sure how much I am gonna need. Also there appears to be different kinds of AC Compressors for my car something bout clutch and clutchless thats confusing as well. Also I need some type of oil for acc compressor. I want to make sure I get everything I need. Any help would be appreciated.
submitted by KC_J0ker to Chevy [link] [comments]

2023.06.10 01:37 DabbyBear [WTS][MA] ASG USW-A1 + mags, APS CAM870 AOW + shells, KC-02 parts, Wii tech Mp9 x2 bundle, 3x Scorpion Evo 3 2020, AKs, UBG local items

Timestamp - 06/09/2023 - ASG USW-A1 Please message me if there is not enough gap between links and you cannot click different timestamps!
Album - 06/09/2023 - Vortex gear
Posts take me ~ one hour to organize, so please tell me if the formatting is fucked!
Album - 06/09/2023 - APS MK1 CAM870 AOW
​
Album - 06/09/2023 - Stocks for KC-02 (two PMACA)
​
Timestamp - 05/22/2023 - HSP, Spiritus, Mission Spec gear
Please look at my posts across other markets - I typically mark things as sold, but feel free to ask (about stuff in other posts). I have plenty of flair, but I always use timestamps regardless.
Pushed for swap meets at Ultimate Battlegrounds in Bridgewater, MA and its been finally happening! If you can match value to value, I may be willing to trade as well - lower flair sends item first (or local).
Prices have shifted down since my last post - and I am willing to do BOGO50% off OR buy two, get one free - it will be more for bundles including larger items (don't ask for three mags to get one free).
**PLS READ THIS** \- If you cannot listen to instructions, there's a chance I will not do a sale with you.
  1. MESSAGE MY INBOX.
  2. GO TO NOTICATIONS MESSAGES.
  3. COMMENT ON THE POST AS WELL SO I KNOW YOU ARE NOT BANNED
  4. TYVM
  5. Shipping info below We can discuss shipping based on bundling - shipping will depend on weight/size, but it likely will be $15 or less. CONUS only.
Newly Added:
ASG USWA1 w/ 8 CO2 mags - Timestamp - 06/09/2023 - ASG USWA1 - (same album as above)
Vortex Gear -
APS MK1 CAM870 AOW w/ upgrades - Album - 06/09/2023
Stocks for KC-02 - would prefer selling in person unless there is complete understanding that modification is needed to fit on a KJW Kc-02
Gear:
Plate carrier + Mask Imgur album - https://imgur.com/a/unw0KiX)
Condor LCS Vanquish Armor System - worth around $220-230, selling for $180 shipped/$170 local Gear that I used as back-up that hasn't seen use in a while. Great for someone jumping in who also wants to carry water or has a hpa tank.
Pilot mask (6mm ProShop) - $40 on evike - $30 local only
Additional pictures for HSP, Spiritus, Mission Spec gear shown above (old timestamp)-
​
KWA MP9 (foregrip model) with a second MP9 (rail model) for parts - old album https://imgur.com/a/k3EsBDh
**Not splitting at this time. Not the mags. Not the adapter.**
If you're building a mp9 from scratch and you're trying to get all of the upgrade parts, you're going to end up spending more than what I am offering here.
​
Other GBBs - old album https://imgur.com/a/Pbzn0qR
AEGs
ASG Scorpion Evo smg - https://imgur.com/a/PKsSFJD with sold spicy scorpion
ASG Scorpion Evo carbine barrel - https://imgur.com/a/GCR6pOd
Thanks for getting all the way down here! I will likely be bringing these items to the local sale. Here's some items I have, but have not yet taken pictures of because interest is likely very limited.. Most of this stuff would be miserable to ship so I have only included local prices. Message me if you want pictures of any of these items TO BUY LOCALLY IN MA.
Local items - old timestamps
AKs & King Arms PDW Shorty https://imgur.com/a/eSniMhz
Local Items w/o pictures - feel free to reach out for pictures if you're local to UBG
Accessories/attachments
Disclaimer: Please do your own research on these parts. I am not responsible for getting your KC or G-series gbb working 100% after purchasing upgrades. There are no known issues with the upgrade parts, but the stock parts are unknown. I will inspect before sending out. No returns. Prices have already been reduced. Talk to me for negotiating further. Rogueworx KC-02 parts - Please check out Rogueworx's website for these parts. - https://rougeworx.com The bolt carriers and pistons are newer versions than what I have here. If you have a kc-02 and you didn't already know, there is also a discord which proves to be very helpful. Spreadsheet broke so - First number is cost on from Rogeworx/supplier, not including shipping cost from the UK. KC-02 parts album
There are many items here so if it's a stock part I won't be listing the price here (G-series and KC-02). The going rate of most g-series/kc parts will be what jk-army charges but without the shipping cost of shipping from HK. The main purpose for these parts is to help those in desperate need of a fix for their kc and to get rid of these parts. If you want to offer me a lot price for the stock parts, go ahead. G-Series parts - [pictures](https://imgur.com/a/Zpuzvhl) - Plastic slides x2 (One with the trades messed up) - Stock hop-up (G17) with stock barrel and bucking - 3 stock G17 barrels, 2 with stock bucking
Items that I will accept for trading purposes but remember - CASH IS KING
Accessories:
* G-series/AAP-01 mags (boneyard or working)
Airsoft replicas:
Thank you for getting all the way down here. Now please, make sure you send an INBOX MESSAGE to me - do not use the instant chat! Message me and we can talk airsoft - worst I can say is: no thank you.
submitted by DabbyBear to airsoftmarket [link] [comments]

2023.06.10 00:43 villainocity Cold Steel AD-10, Kizer, Boker, and Reposted Budget Bundles(Reduced!)

Back once again to sell stuff I don’t use. None of these have ever cut or been carried by me and all are in great shape. Looking for sales not trades, unless you have a Hogue Deka Magnacut wharny or a low-end Demko AD20.5 with the sharkfoot blade. Paypal can be used to balance those trades, as well, either way.
Timestamps: https://imgur.com/a/RRW7gV9
Cold Steel AD-10 ($90) – Bought this just the other day and to be honest, I’m more interested in the Lite version of this with the tanto blade or the AD-15 Lite. I’d just feel a lot better about beating those up outdoors. Excellent condition. S35VN, G10, TriAd lock. This thing is a tank.
https://imgur.com/a/XEZ6D3N
Kizer Sheepdog XL ($60) SOLD– Love this knife, but I’ve got way too many big honkin’ chonkers and I need to pare down, starting with this guy. Excellent condition, but the deep carry clip shows a tiny bit of wear. Thinner blade and handle profile than most knives this size, so while it’s a really big boy, it’s very slicey and much easier to carry. BD1N blade w/ brown micarta.
https://imgur.com/a/CpCVV4p
Boker Urban Survival ($45 - $40) SOLD– Little guy. Bought this new and haven’t used it to cut anything other than myself. Thing is a nasty little razor. Feels good in the hand, but my hands are too big to effectively use the thumb stud without trouble. I can roll it fine, but not flick it. 440C with aluminum handle. Comes with box, taco pouch, and everything Boker included. The smudge on the second pic is oil.
https://imgur.com/a/mc2XXbR
The Miscellaneous Cool Knife Bundle (4 knives) - $65 $60 SOLD
Picked these up at different times. All are in great shape. Only one was bought used and I never cut with any of them. Shikra comes in its box, the rest will come wrapped in bubble wrap.
QSP Penguin – This is the one I bought used and the only one that’s been carried. Couple scratches on the blade and it looks like it’s been tumbled or something. I think it looks really good and it hurts to let it go. Best thumb stud action out of any knife I own. Letting it go because I want to buy a more premium version for the rotation, I think. Micarta feels good and is nicely broken in.
Ontario Shikra – I like it, but I don’t love it. It’s good and all, but I’m just not crazy about knives that only have the micarta on one side and I didn’t know that when I bought it new. Never cut, never carried. Aus 8 with green micarta. Very pokey.
Gerber Pledge –Bought this new from an Academy store. Out of all of the cheaper Gerber knives, this is my favorite. If it came with a more premium steel, I think it would be talked about a lot more. Really sharp and it feels good in the hand. Has one of those flat thumbstud shelf thingies. GFN handle with 7Cr17MoV. I really like the sheepsfoot blade. It’s long and useful. Came in a blister pack I had to murder to get it out, so no box.
Kershaw Reverb XL – Man, this thing looks cool as hell. Deep carry clip and a frame lock, but another one of those “scale on one side, steel on the other” jobs. I struggle flipping this one. It has milling or something in the blade to flip it out with, but I cant get a good grip with these hams I’m workin with. I can roll it out, though. Nice and useful carabiner on the end. I really dig the profile and it feels good in the hand. Carbon fiber overlay on the show side and a carbo-nitride titanium coating on the illustrious 8cr13MoV blade. This one’s packaging also gave its life to my access, so... no box!
https://imgur.com/a/hQn53h1
The Chinese Sampler Bundle (5 knives) - $50 $45 SOLD
Picked these up in various bundles here and there. All have been used (not by me), but have good action and are in good condition. Will come individually wrapped in bubble wrap. Excuse my prints on the Ganzo.
Tunafire - Nice flipping action. I like the orange pivot collar with the green micarta. D2.
Sitivien ST139 –Someone tumbled the blade and pocket clip. I like the look. Good, comfortable finger choil. Flips well. Black/Green G10 & Sandvik 14C28N. Comes with a utilitarian plastic lanyard/fob thingy.
Land 911 – Great thumb stud action and really nice liner lock cut out . Green G10 & Sandvik 12C27. I really didn’t expect much here, but Land makes some pretty solid stuff.
Ganzo Firebird F755 – Great thumb stud action. Has Ganzo’s version of the axis lock (G-Lock). Black carbon fiber overlay on G10, I’m assuming. Blue screws, pivot, and thumb stud. Really good finger choil and jimping on top that makes this feel really good in the hand. I have a bunch of cleaver-style knives and damnit if this one doesn’t feel the most useful lol.
Dispatch ? –Spring assisted and it really fires out. I read somewhere that they sold these on Amazon for 15, but I don’t see them anywhere now. Their website doesn’t have it, but it does have a lot of gas station looking knives being held by dudes in fingerless tactical gloves. Rad. They have some actually attractive stuff too. Steel blade and… metal handle. Feels really solid and has some decent heft. Be a good knife to throw in the vehicle or to take fishing.
https://imgur.com/a/shwuwK4
You know the drill. Yolo > Chat and since I don’t have 25 swaps yet, it’s Paypal G&S for your protection. Age 18+ please.
submitted by villainocity to Knife_Swap [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 23:30 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 23:28 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 23:27 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 23:25 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 23:13 i_cry_evrytim_ Hybrid Distance on Single Tank

Has anyone here pushed their hybrid to the limit as far as miles on a single tank? The gas tank is 14.5 gallons, so if you got 40 mpg you could theoretically go 580 miles before 100% running out of gas. Right now mine says 30 miles to empty (470 miles since I got gas) but based on the needle position and size of the gas tank I’m guessing I could go at least 60 more miles. Anyone else tested their 5th gen hybrid to see how far past “0 miles to empty” you can go?
Also if I were to run out of gas but had charge on the battery, could I theoretically go in EV mode and (slowly) make my way to a gas station?
submitted by i_cry_evrytim_ to rav4club [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 18:22 Radians Buying my first car, advice appreciated.

Hello everyone. I've been lucky/privileged enough to drive my dad's beater 2013 Chevy Cruze for free(110k miles now). It's so bare bones it's a Cruze without cruise control (haha).
I've saved up enough money in cash to buy my own car. After driving my girlfriends loaded Forester I've been yearning to finally buy a car to call my own.
Upgrading to get all the new safety features and apple/android car play is too tempting.
I live in upstate New York and occasionally drive 4 hours down to long island for family. Visit the Adirondacks often too. So bad weather, light off-road and gas efficiency are factors.
I've narrowed it down to Rav4 prime, 2023 Prius prime AWD, Honda CRV or Subaru Forester.
Only concern about the Prius is ground clearance and space for hiking doggo. I've never had traction issues with winter tires in the Cruze but getting out of snow drift or deep snow in general has been tough. Even considering lifting a Prius 2in.
-Budget is 60k.
-If it's a prime/hybrid should I buy new or close to new due to battery concerns?
-Prefer reliability, safety and efficiency
-This is pretty much a "convince me not to buy a rav4" thread.
All comments welcome.
submitted by Radians to whatcarshouldIbuy [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 16:30 khoafraelich789 2023 Chevrolet Tahoe Z71 First Test Review: The SUV That Does It All

2023 Chevrolet Tahoe Z71 First Test Review: The SUV That Does It All
​
https://preview.redd.it/5nopc2325d3b1.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=874e3908d1aba6f3960e566578f51001e91e8719
Need to do, well, just about anything? The Tahoe can handle it.
​
Pros
Aggressive approach and departure angles
Soft-touch interior details
Great versatility for family adventuring
​
Cons
5.3-liter V-8's lackluster performance/economy
20-inch wheels aren't practical for off-roading
Push-button gear selector is fussy for no good reason
​
In these SUV-crazed times, and when gas prices are a lesser concern, the Chevrolet Tahoe just might be the quintessential modern family vehicle. As a jack of all trades, it can tow toys, haul stuff, transport people, tackle a trail, and hold its own in the valet line. But as the saying continues, as a master of none, the 2023 Chevy Tahoe Z71 we tested isn't overwhelmingly excellent in any one category, instead aiming for a well-rounded, realistic target that it mostly nails for families (and businesses) with lots of things to do. For these customers, versatility beats being a master of one, as the saying sometimes ends. And hey, it's way more stylish than settling into minivan life.
​
Z71 Trim: What It Includes
The Z71 is the Tahoe's most off-road-oriented trim, falling below the Premier and High Country in terms of starting price. Exterior visual differences up front include a skidplate and a high-clearance fascia with red recovery hooks. Seasoned off-roaders know GM trucks have poor approach angles that often result in stuffing the front end into obstacles and ripping off valances, so this adapted front end is a definite positive for those who will actually take their Z71 on the trail. That fascia combines with the Z71's available air suspension (good for a 2-inch boost over normal ride height) to provide an approach angle of 34.5 degrees; the Z71's departure angle is 22.5 degrees, and both angles represent useful improvements over more road-oriented models.
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The Z71 also features machined aluminum 20-inch wheels wrapped in 275/60 (33-inch) Goodyear Wrangler TrailRunner AT tires, black assist steps, and black roof-mounted side rails. The Z71 Off-Road package, available for another $6,000, bundles the Luxury, Max Trailering, Driver Alert, and Off-Road Capability packages, allowing buyers to pack on tons of features with one check mark. The last package specifically adds an electronically controlled limited-slip differential (eLSD), Magnetic Ride Control dampers, and adaptive air springs. You cannot order a Z71 with GM's excellent Super Cruise hands-free driving system, however.
​
The adaptive air suspension automatically adjusts for road conditions, lowering to improve aerodynamics and efficiency. You can also adjust it manually. Once in park, it kneels (lowers) for easier egress—though it's a rather slow process. The system is quiet with no loud air compressor sound and pretty seamless.
​
The setup offers nice ride quality, but does it make or break the Z71? Not really, as Tahoes on the regular suspension aren't uncomfortable. On the plus side, we used it to adjust heights when hooking and unhooking trailers. Why jump on the tailgate to disengage the ball when you can air down and lower the hitch?
​
Why We're Testing It
About that electronic limited-slip differential that we mentioned: When we previously tested a Chevy Tahoe Z71, the eLSD wasn't yet available; instead, that truck had a mechanical rear limited-slip diff. Again, this isn't a feature that's going to make or break the Z71 for the majority of customers; most of the time, you'd never know it was there. In certain low-range limited-traction circumstances, it could make a difference. That said, our colleagues at Four Wheeler put it to the test: "Our crew found that [the eLSD] wasn't tuned quite as well as the competition's. It's almost as if GM's engineers designed the Tahoe's eLSD to require a lot of wheelspin before engaging. An actual electronically controlled locking rear differential would make a world of difference." It becomes even less of a necessity considering most folks won't want to have our test SUV's 20-inch wheels if they're going to do regular trailwork.
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Ain't So Peppy But Gets It Done
Our Radiant Red four-wheel-drive 2023 Chevy Tahoe Z71 housed the 5.3-liter V-8 making 355 hp and 383 lb-ft of torque. It gets the big SUV up to speed with little fanfare and works through a 10-speed automatic transmission that happily works away in the background. If you love the good ol' sounds and experience of a trusty V-8, the Tahoe's for you—your gas engine choices are this V-8 or a different V-8. (A torquey 3.0-liter turbodiesel is also available.) However, long gone are the days when V-8 automatically means quicker and faster than the rest.
​
Our Z71 accelerated from 0 to 60 mph in 7.3 seconds. Not bad, Jack, but the problem is that nearly all the four-wheel-drive full-size three-row competition betters that time. The Ford Expedition and Toyota Sequoia with their twin-turbo V-6s are both quicker, with the former reaching 60 mph a full two seconds ahead of the Z71. Rather than hanging with the zippy V-6s, the Z71 sandwiches nicely between its V-8 competitors, the Nissan Armada on top and the Wagoneer on the bottom. (Of course, the Wagoneer's V-8 Hemi is going bye-bye in favor of the excellent Hurricane twin-turbo inline-six.) The Z71 is the only one of these SUVs under 400 horsepower, and the fact that it's light—only the Expedition is lighter—doesn't make a difference. Maybe it's good there's a new sixth-gen small-block in the works.
​
Stick With The 5.3-Liter
The other available V-8, the 6.2-liter, is good for an additional 65 hp and 77 lb-ft of torque. Maybe more displacement delivers more awesome? Naturally, the 6.2-liter offers stronger foot-to-the-floor acceleration, but it also results in a heavier Tahoe that can tow and haul less than the 5.3-liter. Plus, the option tacks on an immediate $8,605 or so. And it requires premium gasoline.
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Unless you absolutely insist on having the biggest V-8 you can get, we'd stick with the 5.3-liter. Any benefits of the 6.2-liter just don't outweigh the 5.3-liter. The 5.3-liter pulls the Tahoe around reasonably well in regular driving, and no one in the school drop-off line will really be the wiser.
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All Those Trades This Jack Of An SUV Covers
Let's look at all the trades this jack covers. First, it's good for four people. The Chevy Tahoe Z71 can seat seven, even eight, but it's really in its element with four aboard. They each have their own captain's chair to stretch out, and the rear entertainment system with dual 12.6-inch screens now comes with built-in apps, making it more broadly useful. It's perfect for a family of four, with room in the third row for occasionally carrying grandparents or your kids' friends. Getting the whole crew out the door to dinner can be like herding cats; taking everyone in one car is a definite bonus. With the third row down, there's also enough room for all four folks to bring a decent load of luggage. If you plan to use the third row consistently, however, things get cramped very quickly. You gain people, but with the third row in use, you lose luggage room for those extra people. For families greater than four considering a Tahoe, we'd recommend a Suburban.
​
It can haul and tow. The Z71 has a payload of about 1,700 pounds and as equipped here can tow 8,200 pounds. Sans kids, we once flipped all but the driver and passenger seats down and hauled a metric ton of overlanding gear to install on another project. The enclosed, upright space handled everything like a boss, and it would have been much harder to secure the load in a pickup. Plus, the Z71 has automatic load-leveling thanks to that air suspension.
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As for towing, we hitched an 8,000-pound 21-foot toy hauler to the Z71's cousin, the GMC Yukon AT4, and dragged it on a 2,400-mile road trip. We faced white-knuckle wind at the Bonneville Flats—the strongest we've ever experienced—steep grades, and everything in between. It did the job with confidence and stability. It's not all glowing, though. We averaged less than 9 mpg mpg while towing. Combined with the 24-gallon fuel tank, we were stopping for gas literally every time we could.
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It's not miserable off-road. Short of "death-wheeling," proceed with confidence. The Z71 does not feel like it'll fall apart off-road. For sketchier trails, it has four-low, the eLSD, an Off-Road drive mode, 10 inches of ground clearance, a bumper made for moderate step-ups, and multiple camera angles for seeing obstacles. You probably won't go buy a Z71 specifically for off-roading—and if you do, again, you probably want to fit smaller wheels—but our colleagues at Four Wheeler named the GMC variant its SUV of the Year.
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In The End …
The Chevrolet Tahoe Z71 isn't the most glamorous SUV going; even the GMC Yukon is perceived as more prestigious. But it can tow, it can take you far off the beaten path without shaking itself to death, it can swallow a ton of cargo, and it's as comfortable for long trips as almost anything you can buy. If you don't crave extra power or stout acceleration and aren't a fan of flashy SUVs, it's worth a look.
​
Source: motortrend
submitted by khoafraelich789 to CarInformationNews [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 09:41 Gattusso02 Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak

Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak
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https://preview.redd.it/jgcbfg5l4y4b1.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b5564ab5919648f23473b3f0d7c2b397b5928c8
Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak
Time: 200 hrs +
100% Clear: 400 hrs +
Difficulty: 7.5/10
The Monster Hunter franchise returns with the previously Nintendo exclusive finally getting its release on PlayStation. Prepare for one long, grindy and fulfilling ride collecting monster crowns all over again. This guide will now include the massive Sunbreak DLC complete with new monsters and better end game gear to make your platinum or 100% completion more efficient.
Trophy Guide
Powerpyx Trophy Guide for Monster Hunter Rise
Powerpyx Trophy Guide for Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak
Full credit to Powerpyx for the guides.
Wiki Guides
https://game8.co/games/Monster-Hunter-Rise
https://monsterhunterrise.wiki.fextralife.com/Monster+Hunter+Rise+Wiki
Credit to Game8 and Fextralife for the excellent wikis. Game8 has the more comprehensive guide complete with locations on where to farm certain items, along with equipment builds and other very useful information. Best to choose one of those builds as your base and swap out armors and skills along the way to find the build perfect for you. Fextralife has a more tabulated approach on the info that helps you get a quick glance on what you are looking for with lesser clicks but may have only concise information compared to Game8. For example, If you are looking for an item drop from a small monster, Fextralife will show you drop rates and which map to visit for your hunt. Game8 will give you a little more and show you the areas in the map where these small monsters are located.
Intro
If you're a beginner to the game or the series in general, the beginning sections and tutorials will naturally be quite overwhelming. Take things one step at a time, find a weapon that fits your play style best and enjoy the ride until you get a decent amount of monster hunts in to familiarize yourself with the game.
There will be tons of things to tweak and learn about on this game and no single article can give justice to the complexities of how to fully optimize your experience so additional research is recommended. Treat this article as a supplementary guide.
Efficiency Tips
Enjoy the story and progress through the main quest line as soon and as often as you can. The reason for this is as you progress through the story and your hunter rank increases, more equipment upgrades will be available to you along with the ability to upgrade the base defense of your gear further which unlocks incrementally as you increase in rank. The more defense you have means the more hits you can take and less healing items you consume which you can spend learning the monsters moves and hitting it.
Work on the 🏆 Beat-up Construction Kit as soon as possible and unlock all camp site locations on each map so you can fast travel conveniently closer to your target's location.
Materials List and Locations can be found here on Game8 to search for your gear and quest requirements. Browse it or simply drop the item you are looking for on the search bar.
Blights and Status Ailments Explained and their Cures is explained best in GadgetGabe's Top Voted answer from this GameFAQs forum. Use this wisely to cure yourself ASAP and stay at tip top shape for your fight. You can eventually customize your item load outs when hunting particular monsters.
Register an inventory and radial menu layout that is best for your hunt and tweak it accordingly if you are working on a solo hunt or are in a group. You can set up your action bar (the bar that uses the left and right d-pad) too.
Learn about monster elemental and ailment weaknesses, weak points and parts that you can sever to improve your success rate in a fight. E.g. Flash bombs work well on monsters in flight. Severing a Pukei-pukei's tail makes the monster incapable of it's wide poison gas attack.
Monster Elemental and Ailment Weaknesses and Immunities credit to Pro Game Guides. Monster Hunter Rise explains monster elemental weaknesses well but does not give too much of a description of what elements the monster utilizes against you. To learn that and build the right resistances, refer to the Fextralife MHR Wiki.
As you progress through your hunts, make sure to pick up any hunting helpers and golden/gilded spiribugs along the way. You will need 500 and 1000 respectively for the trophies 🏆 Hunting Helpers Plate and 🏆 Golden Spiribug Plate. If you want to farm Spiribugs exclusively, this video shows an excellent route while displaying some skills on speedy map traversal.
When you are in town, there will be times when you will be prompted that a sale is ongoing from the two merchants. Always take action on this prompt and participate in the lottery that is only available during this sale to progress towards the 12 room decorations you need to win as part of the 🏆 Sturdy Padlock. If the grand prize of the lottery is a room decoration, you have to roll a Jackpot (different from a Bingo) to win it. Even if the grand prize is not a room decoration, you are given a required room decoration for winning 100 items in the lottery.
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🏆 Extravagant Cashbox
Awarded for earning 1,000,000 Zenny. The fastest method to earn zenny is by participating in the 2 Star Low Rank Event Quest - Gotta Hoard Fast!. It can be done with a group in 1 minute and rewards you with a Golden Egg which you can sell to the merchant for 20,000z. Use whenever you are short on money. This is also the best quest to use if you want to trigger merchant sales quickly and roll on the lottery.
Using your silk bind/aerial moves to deliver mount damage (indicated by a blue cloud background on the damage inflicted) is a good tactic to learn and master. Arekkz Gaming's Monster Riding Tutorial video explains this well. You can also scout the area where you mount the monster and bump him into special areas on the map that will deal extra damage.
High Rank Quests
An Armorcharm and Powercharm will now be available to purchase from the two item merchants. These work as permanent stat increases as long as you have them in your Item Pouch. When you reach HR7, you will eventually be able to upgrade these charms into Armortalon and Powertalon. These stack and you may repurchase Armorcharm and Powercharm and hold all four items in your Item Pouch.
Decorations will unlock from the Smithy and the Melding Pot will unlock from the item merchants. This would be a good time to study the skills you have available in conjunction with your armor skills and start creating defensive/offensive load outs based on what you are up against.
For talisman crafting via the Melding Pot, craft out the desired skill you need and use accordingly. Once you have your talisman of choice, always roll with Melding - Wisp of Mystery and Melding - Rebirth (unlocks last on a higher HR). They will cost more materials to craft, but will also have better chances of a Rarity 7 Talisman with more skills and better decoration slots.
Prepare status resistances/immunities depending on the monsters you are up against and build up defense, elemental defense and even add elemental attack against them as well. Take note that elemental attack increases on skills only increases an existing element on weapons (or elemental ammo for bowguns) and can not create an element from a non-elemental weapon source.
For more on elemental damage and elemental resistances, see Fextralife's articles linked accordingly.
Armorskin and Demondrug and their corresponding Mega version are items consumed once and will last until you faint or complete the quest. Invest in them as soon as you have the zenny to afford them. You will need to farm Pale Extract from the monster Khezu or purchased as a rare find in the Argosy to craft the mega drugs. You may also choose to deploy the meowcenaries to fight a Khezu to increase your item farm.
Master Rank Quests and Sunbreak Content
With Sunbreak comes a whole new base map and two new locations to explore. Like the base game, there are a number of trophies that involve you interacting with the townsfolk and the goods and services they have to offer. Refer to this video guide for a checklist of what you need to be doing after every quest to cover the trophies 🏆 Snowy Cohoot Minipouch, 🏆 Secret Honey Jar, 🏆 Unbreakable Bag, 🏆 Solid Padlock, 🏆Polychrome Acorn and 🏆 Sojourn Necklace.
🏆 Solid Padlock requires another set of items you need to win in the lottery but take note that the Gargolda Statue only starts appearing after you take a picture of it. Take a daytime expedition for a photo of the creature. Gamer Guru's video shows you how to do it.
Refer to Game8's Eurekacorn article for more ways on farming Eurekacorns for your Polychrome Acorn trophy. Efficiency Tip: Target an expedition with a Herb Node in the Frost Islands together with a Khezu Node for both Eurekacorns and Pale Extracts.
For efficient map traversal, unlock the alternative camp sites on the two new Sunbreak areas along with the new buddy recon points. You will have to unlock 2 recon points per map, for a total of 12 for 🏆 Buddy Whistle. Darcblade has an excellent video guide to cover this.
Crown Hunting
🏆 Mini Crown Plaque and 🏆 Gold Crown Plaque will most likely be the last trophies you will get in the game as these are very grindy to obtain. These entail slaying or capturing the smallest and largest versions of each monster, awarding you a gold crown on your Hunter's Notes. An alternative grouped view of all your crowns can be found in OPT -> Multiplayer -> Guild Cards -> View -> L1 for Hunting Log. Unlike MH World, Rise does not include a crown notification in the points reward section after a hunt. You will have to check your Hunter Notes manually. You do get a prompt of "Monster Size Updated" right after the kill or capture though as your best indicator of a possible crown.
Crown Hunting Tips and Drop Rates explained by Luke Albigés of TrueAchievements
Efficient Strategy
You will want to clear out all the crowns you can possibly obtain from the quests with the 100% chance or boosted crown rate quests. For everything else, learn how to crown snipe to save time and not waste too much time on normal sized targets. If your are sure that your target monster is not a crown size, abort your quest and start a new one. Take note that you need to capture/kill 10 monsters of each type for their respective monster scroll to progress on your 🏆 Sturdy Padlock so anything close to a perceived small or large crown would be worth the kill. The Sunbreak Expansion and Master Rank buffs up the crown monsters appearance rate to as high as 10% for large and 6% for minis. You are best saving the crown hunt for last as you have to tackle Anomaly Investigations for the Sunbreak 🏆 Bahari's Hand Wound Birdie, which entails you earning and spending 3000 Investigation Coins as rewards for these type of quests along with clearing out every single Master Rank quest for the 🏆 Record of Utmost Valor - Master and clearing out 1-4 star anomaly quests for the 🏆 Painting - Crimson Nightmare. There are a total of 7 1-star anomaly quests to unlock and 8 quests for 2-4 stars. There is a good chance that you will be earning majority of these crowns along your progression towards these three trophies with minimal crown cleanup.
Videos for Monster Measurements
As of this writing, there seems to be a lack of content on Large and Mini Gold Crowns for MH Rise. Below is video clips to give some clues on how these monster sizes will look when you encounter them. Monster sizes with 100% chance drop quests will be excluded from this segment.
Kiranico has an excellent large monster guide which also displays the recommended quest to participate in with corresponding crown percentages.
Anomaly Investigation quest monsters have fixed sizes and will never yield any crowns. The normal Anomaly Quests will share the same 6% small and 10% large crown chance as the MR quests.
Base Game Crowns
Anjanath Mini Gold Crown
Barioth Large Gold Crown
Barioth Mini Gold Crown
Barroth Mini Gold Crown
Chameleos Large Gold Crown
Chameleos Mini Gold Crown
Great Izuchi Large Gold Crown
Great Izuchi Mini Gold Crown
Ku-Lu-Yaku Large Gold Crown
Ku-Lu-Yaku Mini Gold Crown
Kushala Daora Mini Gold Crown
Lagombi Large Gold Crown
Rakna-Kadaki Large Gold Crown
Rathalos Mini Gold Crown
Royal Ludroth Large Gold Crown
Teostra Large Gold Crown
Teostra Mini Gold Crown
Sunbreak Crowns
There are only 16 additional monsters tied up to the crown trophies for Sunbreak which are the monsters that were available at the original release of the game. You will need these 16 monsters along with all the base game crowns for the 🏆 Miniature Crown Shield and 🏆 Gold Crown Shield to unlock. Refer to the Gold Crown Shield segment of Powerpyx's guide for the full list.
Astalos Large Gold Crown
Aurora Somnacanth Mini Gold Crown
Gore Magala Large Gold Crown
Malzeno Large Gold Crown
Pyre Rakna-Kadaki Large Gold Crown
Scorned Magnamalo Large Gold Crown
Miscellaneous Grind
🏆 Antique Bookmark
Achieved by collecting all 60 Relics scattered over the 5 available maps. Powerpyx's guide for all Relic Locations shows these well. There is a correction to the linked article however, as it is mentioned there that the Rampage Relics unlock after collecting all 10 other Relics per map but is incorrect (unsure what triggers rampage Relic availability but I had access to them at 5 star quest availability on Village and Hub quests). To track the relics you have collected already, go to OPT -> Info -> Hunter Notes -> Notebook.
Gaming with Abyss has good Monster Hunter trophy content and shows locations of each relic per map clearly on his videos.
Shrine Ruins
Frost Islands
Flooded Forest
Sandy Plains
Lava Caverns
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Other Useful Information
Affinity vs Raw Damage is discussed well on this steamcommunity forum.
The difference between KO/Stun and Trip is explained will in this article. Note that KO and Stun status are the same (in game and articles call it one or the other so this can be confusing) but Trip status is different.
Critical Boost at level 1 raises damage dealt by critical hits by 5%. Your critical hits are already at a base amplified damage of 25% (not mentioned in-game). This could be deceiving due to the in-game skill definition.
Palamutes and Palicos you bring on the hunt increase your ease and efficiency and are best slotted with the best gear for your playstyle. Game8 has an excellent buddy guide that discusses end game builds.
Use the Basic behavior if you are running a melee focused buddy and Follow if you are using a ranged buddy. This is discussed thoroughly by CheaterMcCheat.
On solo hunts, don't let the common combo of 1 Palico and 1 Palamute mold you to run with that as there are several builds that utilize 2 Palicos or 2 Palamutes in one hunt. For example, you may want to use a double Palamute with C Jelly Travel Bag X weapon on the Best Equipment For Sunbreak (Ranged)segment. Accompanied with the Palamute Silkbinder, this build can provide excellent monster control.
Ordering Motley Mixes in the canteen nets you dango tickets as a reward. Claim it from the chef after some orders and use the tickets with hopping skewers on your harder hunts.
Latent Power skill is triggered by an internal timer upon monster encounter and attack animations and is explained here on Fextralife's wiki.
Auto-shoutouts are useful for your party and even yourself. You can program these auto shoutouts via OPT -> Multiplayer -> Chat Menu -> Triangle and click on the field under Text to program what you want to shout-out, choose the box under speech timing to choose the condition. These conditions aren't fixed and you have more to choose from. The most useful ones are the auto shoutouts for "When you set a trap" and "When a monster is limping" where the monster enters the blue icon state and is capturable if it is not an elder, apex or afflicted monster.
Weapon Specific Notes
Light Bowgun
Light Bowgun Basic Moves and Ammo Types credit to Phemeto
Pay attention to the color of your reticle. An orange reticle tells you that your ammo type is in its ideal range and will deal its intended damage. A yellow reticle means your shots will hit, but will be significantly weaker.
The Fanning Vault Silkbind skill is best used with your Wyvernblast special ammo. Press circle while you are directly under the monster to plant a bomb directly on it. You will be replacing this with the Switch Skill Fanning Maneuver for end game builds.
Ammo Details can be found by going to Items and Equipment (opt button) -> Equipment Info -> Ammo Details (square)
You will normally run out of your full magazine of your most desired ammo. To minimize returning to camp, bring the materials you need to craft that ammo and set it on your radial menu. Also, avoid bringing the ammo type you never use to keep your ammo menu as decluttered as possible for efficient ammo switching. It is encouraged to bind the ammo you use and their craft commands in your radial menu as well.
Recoil is the delay between firing shots (different from Reload delay). Lower recoil = Faster Attack Speed
Deviation is the drift of the bullets when you fire. If you have a weapon with deviation, it will travel center for a medium distance then swerve to the L or R depending on the strength of the deviation. Targeting "No deviation" is ideal.
Decorations can be crafted to reduce Reload, Recoil and Deviation.
Light Bowgun Weapon & Armor Skills
Bombardier skill does not work with any ammos, including sticky, cluster, or wyvernblast.
Normal/Rapid Up skill improves Normal Ammo damage by 5%/10%/20% and stacks with the skill
Rapid Fire Up which enhances rapid fire damage also by 5%/10%/20%
Great Sword
Recommended Switch Skills are Tackle, Rage Slash (RS), and Adamant Charged Slash (ACS). All three can tank monster attacks (no knockbacks) and negates roar effects. Tackle is the bread and butter during roars and quick monster attacks since its easy to trigger, You can use Adamant Charged Slash for positioning, and Rage Slash to land your last charged attack on your desired direction, which True Charged Slash Skill cant do.
How to Unlock:
Adamant Charged Slash - Unlocked by crafting/upgrading 8 different Greatswords, no duplicates. Replaces the Hunting Edge skill.
Rage Slash - Unlocked by completing the quest "Grasp the Greatsword" (HR5 Quest). Replaces the True Charged Slash skill.
Low Rank Entry GS - Crit Eye Build
Low Rank GS - Crit Draw Build - 80% Affinity on Overhead and Charged Slash
High Rank GS Build - 90% Affinity on Weakpoints + Focus 3
Several members of the PSTHPH team contributed to the making of this guide.
There is an ongoing issue with this article preventing further edits. Please check the comments for more.
submitted by Gattusso02 to PSTrophyHuntersPH [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 05:10 iggyskier [WTS] Scalarworks LEAP 01 & 06, Aimpoint 3x, Holosun (2), EOTech EXPS3-0, Strike Eagle 5-25, Bunch of Spiritus (LV119 w/ MK4 + Back Panel, Thing 2, etc), Sangin Watches (3), 7.5" Upper w/ Noveske PIG, Cloud Rein 1.0, Magpul Bipod, and more...

Timestamp: https://imgur.com/a/Dr5XV0t
Big house cleaning. Pricing includes domestic shipping in lower 48 + Paypal fees. Paypal only. If I have the box, it's in the photo.
Note - I shot everything individually last night, so the single photos have a 6/7 timestamp for each. See the above link for everything together with today's timestamp.
Please include item number in any dibs + DM to me. Thanks!
Item Price (shipped) Notes Photos
1) Scalarworks LEAP/01 - 1.93cm $85 - SOLD Some use, just moved to Unity. https://imgur.com/a/2kXY4PZ
2) Scalarworks LEAP/01 - 1.93cm $85 - SOLD Some use, just moved to Unity. https://imgur.com/a/2kXY4PZ
3) Scalarworks LEAP/06 Aimpoint Magnifier - 1.93cm $150 - SOLD Believe never used. https://imgur.com/a/2kXY4PZ
4) Scalarworks LEAP/06 Aimpoint Magnifier - 1.93cm $120 Painted green, some use. Done my best to remove paint but a few minor spots left in nooks. https://imgur.com/a/2kXY4PZ
5) Aimpoint 3X-C Magnifier $200 - SOLD Some use and corresponding scuffs (visible in photos) but glass is good to go. https://imgur.com/a/2kXY4PZ
6) Holoson EPS Red 2 MOA $275 - SOLD Brand New https://imgur.com/a/475LvW7
7) Holosun 507C X2 $200 - SOLD Run on 45 offset on a 14.5. Some marks on the body, but fully functional and no damage to glass. https://imgur.com/a/R7s1UWq
8) EOTech EXPS3-0 $575 - SOLD Brand New https://imgur.com/a/wtRdX5B
9) Vortex Strike Eagle 5-25 EBR-7C MRAD $550 ~60 rounds on 308 bolt. Some signs of wear (visible in photos) but glass is pristine. https://imgur.com/a/eq8S9Z6
10) Magpul Bipod - M-Lok $75 - SOLD Coyote https://imgur.com/a/nxsCtq7
11) Kagwerks Slimline Extended Slide Release $40 Brand new. https://imgur.com/a/nxsCtq7
12) Cloud Rein 1.0 $175 - SOLD A bit of wear on the button. Otherwise a tank. Just replaced with the 2.0. https://imgur.com/a/nxsCtq7
13) Surefire Warcomp $90 - SOLD Never used, but don't have the washers or box anymore. Some scuffs just from being around in my tool kit. https://imgur.com/a/nxsCtq7
14) 7.5" Upper (Build Below) $500 Never used - just not moving forward with the build. Aero M4E1 Upper, BA 7.5" Modern Barrel with Pinned Gas Block, Noveske PIG, Steamlight HLX in Cloud Defensive on Arisaka Mount, 9" BCM MCMR Rail, Emissary Handbrake + Magpul Rail Covers, 45 Offset QD Mount, and Strike Industries Dust Cover. Still needs a forward assist. https://imgur.com/a/jo7wBtr
15) Sangin Professional - DLC / Black / Divers $600 Find myself just wearing my Atlas all the time. Worn less than 10 times, great shape. https://imgur.com/a/wZGKeMT
16) Sangin Kinetic II Limited Edition - Midnight $600 Same as above. https://imgur.com/a/tKaz1rO
17) Sangin Overlord - DLC $450 - SOLD Same as above. https://imgur.com/a/qyueb5d
18) Spiritus Systems LV-119 Black + MK4 + Back Panel $550 Worn a handful of times with Hesco SAPI-M plates. Includes: Front + Rear Overt Plate Bags, Size 1 Elastic Cummerbund, Trifold Shoulder Cover, Back Panel Core, GP & Flashbang Back Panel, Sack, MK4 with Triple 556 and double pistol + half flap https://imgur.com/a/od7fDtF
19) Spiritus Systems Multicam MK4 Chest Rig + Accessories $125 - SOLD MK4 + Sack + Fat Strap + Triple Mag + Double Pistol + Half Flap + BLACK Backstrap https://imgur.com/a/2gcualw
20) Spiritus Systems Black Thing 2 + Sack $125 - SOLD Thing 2 + Fat Strap + Back Strap + Sack https://imgur.com/a/4QDXH3a
21) Spiritus Systems MK4 Black $75 - SOLD MK4 with Triple 556 and double pistol + half flap https://imgur.com/a/WPQOHIj
22) Spiritus Systems Bank Robber Black $50 - SOLD Bank Robber + Skinny Stap + Back Strap https://imgur.com/a/WWQepEM
23) Spiritus Systems MCB Molle Back Panel $50 Brand New https://imgur.com/a/u1M1b1v
24) Spiritus Systems MCB Spud Pouch $40 Brand New https://imgur.com/a/l9evnjf
25) Spiritus Systems MCB Flash Bang Pouch $25 Brand New https://imgur.com/a/l9evnjf
26) Spiritus Systems Black Placard $40 - SOLD Brand New https://imgur.com/a/p3aD4Qc
27) Spiritus Systems Black Small Pouch $30 Brand New https://imgur.com/a/p3aD4Qc
28) Trex Arms Orion Belt - Multicam + Accessories $150 - SOLD Trex Orion Outer (L) + Inner (L) + Esstac Rifle + Double Pistol + Blue Force Boo Boo https://imgur.com/a/07BjhYo
29) WRMFZY Rhodesian Woobie - XL $65 Rains here too much, just never wore. https://imgur.com/a/u9nDPaL
​
submitted by iggyskier to GunAccessoriesForSale [link] [comments]

2023.06.09 04:33 ImaginationSea3679 An Alien Nature 4

We continue first contact through a human perspective.
I hope you enjoy.
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Memory Transcription Subject: Noah Williams, FTL Tester and Scientific Researcher
Date[standardized human time]: July 12, 2136
"Tarva."
Oh my god.
Not only do they look adorable with their big eyes that force them to look sideways, and they have fluff that looks like it would belong on a silkie chicken...
But they sound adorable as well!
I could tell that Sarah was using every ounce of willpower in her being to not squeal in delight.
"Tar-Va. Stravennis Tarva." The alien repeated, adding an unfamiliar word to her name. A title, perhaps?
I pointed at the individual. "Tarva." I said. The alien's ears flicked wildly as it sounded pleased.
I heard other voices murmuring, probably the other aliens.
I decided to point to myself.
"Noah. No-Ah. Noah Williams."
The lead alien gestured towards me as they looked me in the eye. "Noah." They said, air whistling from the odd gaps in their teeth as they spoke. Fascinating.
I nodded my head. "Yes! Noah!" I said as I continued gesturing to myself.
Sarah stepped up and gestured to herself. "Sarah. Sar-Ah." She said.
The alien turned to her. "Sarah." They said. Sarah's already bright smile brightened even further.
We took turns clarifying each other's names, with “Kam” introducing themselves, before the lead alien gestured to her ship, saying something in her own language.
"I think she wants us to go to her ship." Sarah said.
I thought about it. "Are we sure that's a good idea, Sarah?" I asked.
"We've already proven ourselves peaceful to each other, this would just be the next step!" She said, giddy with excitement.
I thought for a moment. There were an innumerable number of things that could go horribly wrong, but right now the only thing we needed to worry about was
I nodded. "Alright, let's do this."
<<>>
After their airlock filled itself with their atmosphere, the aliens slid their visors up, officially leaving no boundaries between us and their floof. They motioned for us to follow them, and we did.
I noticed that Kam had horns on their head, while Tarva did not. Did that signify a difference in gender the same way goat horns do? If so, then it would be safe to assume that Kam was male and that Tarva was female, but we couldn’t make too many assumptions too soon.
We were led into a room with what looked like books on shelves. Kam pulled one down and revealed that they were, in fact, books! There was also what looked like a whiteboard with magnetic markers.
They then left us to read.
While we couldn’t read the flowery writing, the books were very picture heavy, and we could infer a lot of things from them.
We confirmed the suspicion that Tarva was female and Kam was male. They had also convergently evolved very similar to placental mammals, with mammary glands and breasts on the chests of the females used to nurse young, which were brought into the world through live birth. While not always swollen, the breasts of the females were always a noticeable part of their silhouette. Their reproductive systems were also almost completely disconnected from their digestive systems, also similar to placental mammals.
We also learned what various things made them unique.
The filaments that made up their fur were, indeed, more similar to bird feathers like a silkie chicken.
They could breathe out of two orifices: the mouth and a blowhole on the top of the head. Their blowholes were solely for respiration, and they smelled through their taste buds on their tongue, and were basically vaguely similar to snakes in that regard. Their teeth also have gaps to make mouth respiration easier.
Their eyes were not balls of tissue in a socket, but rather a divot in the skull with visual receptors. The iris of the eye was actually highly specialized muscle tissue, which could move to change the size, position, and even shape of the pupil. Then the eye was topped with a lens to refract and focus light.
Interestingly enough, their evolutionary tree suggested that they evolved from a very basal organism, and that they weren’t too different from their early tetrapod-analogue.
We were interrupted from our reading by a knock on the doorway. We looked up to see that Tarva and Kam had returned.
I decided to gesture them over, eager to show them what we had in common.
It took me a while, but I managed to get across the things we had in common with the venlil. Live birth, mammary glands, and the separation of the reproductive and digestive tracts. Sarah then went to the whiteboard to illustrate the differences between us. Body covering structure, our noses, our eyes, and our evolutionary paths.
The venlil seemed just as fascinated by us as we were of them.
Suddenly, our suits beeped.
We were running low on air.
We tapped our gas canisters, hoping to get the message across to the venlil. They looked at us for a moment before their eyes widened, and they gestured for us to follow them. We ended up going back to the airlock, where they re-equipped their gas tanks and visors and drained the room before opening the door.
We ran towards our ship, the venlil following us closely behind.
Despite the emergency, I was excited to let aliens into our ship.
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