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Ultimate High Tide DD
2023.04.01 10:12 Philip19967 Ultimate High Tide DD
Below is the latest in-depth and summary DD from High Tide (a leading retail-focused cannabis company with bricks-and-mortar as well as global e-commerce assets. The Company is the largest non-franchised cannabis retail chain in Canada, with 151 current locations spanning British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario) which I hope will be appreciated and shared.
What I find important to note is the following:
High Tide is valued at approximately 120 million CAD market cap with double-digit annual growth and quarterly reduced expenses, in an ultra-competitive market, a constant increase in gross margins and a turnover of over 450 million annually. The company trades at 0.5 times the sales… These few lines, in addition to the in-depth and exhaustive dd, should make us reflect on the true value of the company and not on what the market values it now.
Earnings are expected after markets close tomorrow, enjoy reading :)
HIGH TIDE
ticker -- NASDAQ:HITI / TSXV:HITI
GLOBAL CANNABIS (brick&mortar & e-commerce) EMPIRE
🥦THC
⚕️ CBD
🍶 Accessories
📊 Data
🏧 Kiosks
🌱 Seeds
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇩🇪
INVESTOR PRESENTATION:
https://hightideinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/High-Tide-Investor-Presentation-Mar-21-2023.pdf [Updated march 2023]
Latest Earnings ->
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-reports-second-consecutive-quarter-of-record-revenue-and-adjusted-ebitda-118-million-and-5-5-million-respectively/ SOURCE STORY Snapshot: CEO and Raj Grover started the company that became High Tide with $50,000 and a vision. With never more than $30 million in the bank, Raj strategically transformed one store into today's 151-store, multi-vertical, growth rate of over $400 million in '23.
When they were only 8mln 4 years ago!
Wisely borrowing pages directly from dominant retail companies' playbooks of: COST COST: Club Membership = Low Prices = Loyalty = Market Share
STARBUCKS SBUX: dollar is selling the coffee, not growing the beans
High Tide's strategy is unique and farsighted, given the number of companies currently competing with themselves and the market saturation which increasingly reduces margins, but this does not affect High Tide.
#1 IN 🇨🇦 REVENUE FROM CANNABIS
High Tide Named Canada's Top Revenue Generating Cannabis Company [11/30/22].
https://www.forbes.com/sites/benjaminadams/2022/11/30/high-tide-named-canadas-top-revenue-generating-cannabis-company/?sh=384eced66033 CAPITAL MARKETS Highlights: the current share price is $1.20 USD, it is at a P/S multiple of 0.5 because the market capitalization is $160 million (USDcad) and the execution rate is $CAd 450 million (2023) . LOW FLOAT: Only ~55 million float = rapid upward movement in share price. Institutions, ETFs (MJ, THCX, YOLO, MJXL)
GLOBAL 🥦 THC + ⚕️ CBD + 🍶 ACCESSORIES STRATEGY
High Tide owns & operates a portfolio of cannabis-related businesses in several verticals:
🥦 THC ·
www.CannaCabana.com --
151 stores are #1 in 🇨🇦Canada selling THC, CBD, & Accessories.
{Same Store Sales up 46% Y/Y. Gaining 1% national Market Share per quarter since launching the discount club biz model late 2021. See "Q3 RE RECAP" below for more info.}
⚕️ CBD ·
www.NuLeafNaturals.com &
www.FabCBD.com -- Top CBD brands in the 🇺🇸USA with 70%+ margins
·
www.BlessedCBD.co.uk -- the #1 CBD brand in the 🇬🇧 UK -- is now delivering to 🇩🇪 Germany & 🇺🇸 USA, and soon to France & Italy.
🍶 ACCESSORIES High Tide owns 3 of the top 5 global 🌐 US CA GB DE FR IT🌐
Accessory eCommerce businesses, and a 4th in the top 10:
·
www.GrassCity.com ·
www.SmokeCartel.com ·
www.DailyHighClub.com ·
www.DankStop.com'23-'24 EXPANSION PLANS
CANADIAN -- B&M "Canna Cabana" STORES -- THC, CBD and accessories:
2021: 105 (goals achieved!)
2022: 150 (goals achieved!)
2023: 200
USA -- Accessories e-commerce: At over $30 million, it's always possible that High Tide will pick up one more accessories e-commerce business to add to the other four.
GERMANY -- THC, CBD and accessories: already planning to establish a presence in Germany pending US decision/reschedule. Leading Canadian Cannabis Retailer To Open German 'High Street' Shops For Adult Use [12/10/22] --
https://businesscann.com/leading-canadian-cannabis-retailer-to-establish-german-adult-use - high-street-shops/
USA -- THC: Globally, High Tide has 3,000,000 High Lifetime Value (LTV) customers in its database (2.4 million in the USA) who have purchased accessories (pipes, bongs, vaporizers, dab rigs, etc.) -- segmented by country and US state.
Raj said, "We've had conversations with multiple US groups about a potential acquisition." Considering all factors (inflation, rising interest rates, falling stock market prices, cannabis sector, access to capital, etc.) it is likely that High Tide will have a 2nd mover advantage for US M&As at attractively low multiples, reaffirmed that they intend to become a top 5 US MSO.
INFORMATIVE VIDEOS & ARTICLES
High Tide Recaps Key Milestones of 2022 [12/30/22] --
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-recaps-key-milestones-of-2022/ High Tide CEO On M&A, New Products And 3 Factors Holding The Cannabis Stock Back [12/22/22] --
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/22/12/29959300/high-tide-ceo-on-m-a-new-products-and-3-factors-holding-the-cannabis-stock-back How High Tide Became the ‘Costco of Cannabis’ [11/23/22] --
https://www.cannabisbusinesstimes.com/news/how-high-tide-became-the-costco-of-cannabis-canna-cabana/ Q3 2022 ER RECAP [reported 9/14]
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-reports-third-quarter-2022-financial-results-featuring-a-98-increase-in-revenue-and-tenth-straight-quarter-of-positive-adjusted-ebitda/ A) Q3 ER showed continued growth in same store sales and 1% in market share every quarter! The discount club concept launched in late 2021 continues to drive sales & loyalty.
· Revenue $95.4MM - up 98% Y/Y -- 18% seq
· SSS (aka Same store sales)
up 46% Y/Y -- 18% seq
· Adj EBITDA $4.2MM - up 176% Y/Y -- 77% seq
· Revenue now on $450+MM run rate.
📊
Graph of High Tide's National Market Share growth by quarter (since launching the discount club biz model) --
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlO4PLiXgAQbY4e?format=jpg&name=small 📊
Graph of High Tide's revenue growth --
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkhCCy-X0AMy8pg?format=png&name=small B) NDF: $19M in Non-Dilutive Financing alleviates any cash concerns at industry leading <9% interest rates.
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-closes-19-million-non-dilutive-credit-facility-with-connectfirst-credit-union/ C) Cabana Elite monetization : Raj going to start to monetize the membership by EOY. Profits go straight to the bottom line. 900k members now. Example: if 20% of 1M members (200k) subscribe at $5/month ($60/year), that's an extra $12M in profit!
High Tide Launches Exclusive Paid Membership Program: “Cabana Elite” [11/29/22] --
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-launches-exclusive-paid-membership-program-cabana-elite/ DISCOUNT CLUB BIZ MODEL [launched 12/20/21. paid Cabana Elite membership launched 11/29/22]
Launched 10/20/21 with 245K members. Currently 900K+ members as of EOY '22!
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-becomes-north-americas-first-cannabis-discount-club-retailer-with-over-245000-members/.
This was a DATA DRIVEN decision based on successful pilot programs
Membership in this loyalty program is FREE. Every person who walks into a Canna Cabana sees a high cost for non-members, and a discounted cost for members. When they realize signing up for FREE with their email address and phone # (SMS) makes them a MEMBER of the CABANA CLUB, they will do so in order to save money on that purchase and future purchases.
Stores are stocked w/ HIGH MARGIN products like consumption accessories, CBD, and house brands of shatter & gummies & prerolls -- with other form factors later.
Market Share and Same Store Sales growth are WAY up (see Q3 ER recap above) Q over Q while the other retailers (& USA MSOs btw) are seeing declines.
MEANING OF THE ACQUISITION OF NULEAF NATURALS [acquired on 11/22/21]
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-continues-expansion-into-global-cbd-market-with-acquisition-of-colorado-based-nuleaf-naturals/ Headquartered in Denver CO, NuLeaf Naturals is one of the leading CBD brands in the United States in terms of CBD blend research and intellectual property, rapid growth, and industry-leading margins. $16 million of the ~$20 million in revenue is directed to the consumer, but the expanding deal with Sprouts will allow for B&M's wider retail distribution. It is notable that their facility is cGMP certified. It can generate up to 60,000 vegan soft-gels per hour, or 25% of their activity. FabCBD production, co-packing and shipping were moved to the facility to save costs through operational efficiency. NULEAF comes with a cGMP certified manufacturing facility in Denver CO, USA, state of the art in CBD and other cannabinoids
🏧 KIOSK (FASTENDR) [launched 5/1/22]
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-acquire-fastendr-retail-kiosk-and-smart-locker-technology-through-acquisition-of-bud-room-inc/. {Launched 5/1/22. Currently 175 Fastendr kiosks are operational in 120 Canna Cabana stores as of EOY '22}
The Discount Club model is causing long lines out the door. Taking a page from major retailers in other industries, this allows customers to order online or at a kiosk and collect from a "smart" locker. For those customers who know what they want and don't need budtender guidance, this is a handy convenience. Very few dispensaries in the world have this experience. Also mentioned in the PR is a desire to license this technology to other dispensaries and industries which could turn into another revenue stream. Delivery will be made available to all locations permitted by law but this offers a fast, convenient and quick way to ordecollect. It also cuts the dollars spent on budtenders by keeping the lines moving.
+ 🌿 SEEDS [Launched 12/13/22]
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-enters-new-vertical-in-the-united-states-with-launch-of-cannabis-seeds/ Selling seeds is another high-margin revenue stream growing HITI's $3 million global customer database of High Lifetime Value users!
COMMANDING ECOMM RETAILER MULTIPLES
High Margin Private Label THC and FabCBD.com / BlessedCBD / NuLeaf, one of the main reasons High Tide is expected to be profitable later in 2023. When high tide...
A) Sells most accessories and CBD worldwide.
B) Owns multiple businesses in the US.
C) Sells data, kiosks and cannabis seeds
D) Selling their private label (think Kirkland) edible THC, vape and flower brands. E) Supplies supplies to dispensaries in multiple states.
F) PARTNER WITH STATE OPERATORS TO GIVE THEM ACCESS TO SELL THC TO THEIR HIGH VALUE CANNABIS CONSUMERS OVER 3 MILLION LIVES ...still only considered a Canadian cannabis retailer?
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2023.04.01 10:10 Philip19967 ultimate High Tide DD
Below is the latest in-depth and summary DD from High Tide (a leading retail-focused cannabis company with bricks-and-mortar as well as global e-commerce assets. The Company is the largest non-franchised cannabis retail chain in Canada, with 151 current locations spanning British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario) which I hope will be appreciated and shared.
What I find important to note is the following:
High Tide is valued at approximately 120 million CAD market cap with double-digit annual growth and quarterly reduced expenses, in an ultra-competitive market, a constant increase in gross margins and a turnover of over 450 million annually. The company trades at 0.5 times the sales… These few lines, in addition to the in-depth and exhaustive dd, should make us reflect on the true value of the company and not on what the market values it now.
Earnings are expected after markets close tomorrow, enjoy reading :)
HIGH TIDE
ticker -- NASDAQ:HITI / TSXV:HITI
GLOBAL CANNABIS (brick&mortar & e-commerce) EMPIRE
🥦THC
⚕️ CBD
🍶 Accessories
📊 Data
🏧 Kiosks
🌱 Seeds
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇩🇪
INVESTOR PRESENTATION:
https://hightideinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/High-Tide-Investor-Presentation-Mar-21-2023.pdf [Updated march 2023]
Latest Earnings ->
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-reports-second-consecutive-quarter-of-record-revenue-and-adjusted-ebitda-118-million-and-5-5-million-respectively/ SOURCE STORY Snapshot: CEO and Raj Grover started the company that became High Tide with $50,000 and a vision. With never more than $30 million in the bank, Raj strategically transformed one store into today's 151-store, multi-vertical, growth rate of over $400 million in '23.
When they were only 8mln 4 years ago!
Wisely borrowing pages directly from dominant retail companies' playbooks of: COST COST: Club Membership = Low Prices = Loyalty = Market Share
STARBUCKS SBUX: dollar is selling the coffee, not growing the beans
High Tide's strategy is unique and farsighted, given the number of companies currently competing with themselves and the market saturation which increasingly reduces margins, but this does not affect High Tide.
#1 IN 🇨🇦 REVENUE FROM CANNABIS
High Tide Named Canada's Top Revenue Generating Cannabis Company [11/30/22].
https://www.forbes.com/sites/benjaminadams/2022/11/30/high-tide-named-canadas-top-revenue-generating-cannabis-company/?sh=384eced66033 CAPITAL MARKETS Highlights: the current share price is $1.20 USD, it is at a P/S multiple of 0.5 because the market capitalization is $160 million (USDcad) and the execution rate is $CAd 450 million (2023) . LOW FLOAT: Only ~55 million float = rapid upward movement in share price. Institutions, ETFs (MJ, THCX, YOLO, MJXL)
GLOBAL 🥦 THC + ⚕️ CBD + 🍶 ACCESSORIES STRATEGY
High Tide owns & operates a portfolio of cannabis-related businesses in several verticals:
🥦 THC ·
www.CannaCabana.com --
151 stores are #1 in 🇨🇦Canada selling THC, CBD, & Accessories.
{Same Store Sales up 46% Y/Y. Gaining 1% national Market Share per quarter since launching the discount club biz model late 2021. See "Q3 RE RECAP" below for more info.}
⚕️ CBD ·
www.NuLeafNaturals.com &
www.FabCBD.com -- Top CBD brands in the 🇺🇸USA with 70%+ margins
·
www.BlessedCBD.co.uk -- the #1 CBD brand in the 🇬🇧 UK -- is now delivering to 🇩🇪 Germany & 🇺🇸 USA, and soon to France & Italy.
🍶 ACCESSORIES High Tide owns 3 of the top 5 global 🌐 US CA GB DE FR IT🌐
Accessory eCommerce businesses, and a 4th in the top 10:
·
www.GrassCity.com ·
www.SmokeCartel.com ·
www.DailyHighClub.com ·
www.DankStop.com'23-'24 EXPANSION PLANS
CANADIAN -- B&M "Canna Cabana" STORES -- THC, CBD and accessories:
2021: 105 (goals achieved!)
2022: 150 (goals achieved!)
2023: 200
USA -- Accessories e-commerce: At over $30 million, it's always possible that High Tide will pick up one more accessories e-commerce business to add to the other four.
GERMANY -- THC, CBD and accessories: already planning to establish a presence in Germany pending US decision/reschedule. Leading Canadian Cannabis Retailer To Open German 'High Street' Shops For Adult Use [12/10/22] --
https://businesscann.com/leading-canadian-cannabis-retailer-to-establish-german-adult-use - high-street-shops/
USA -- THC: Globally, High Tide has 3,000,000 High Lifetime Value (LTV) customers in its database (2.4 million in the USA) who have purchased accessories (pipes, bongs, vaporizers, dab rigs, etc.) -- segmented by country and US state.
Raj said, "We've had conversations with multiple US groups about a potential acquisition." Considering all factors (inflation, rising interest rates, falling stock market prices, cannabis sector, access to capital, etc.) it is likely that High Tide will have a 2nd mover advantage for US M&As at attractively low multiples, reaffirmed that they intend to become a top 5 US MSO.
INFORMATIVE VIDEOS & ARTICLES
High Tide Recaps Key Milestones of 2022 [12/30/22] --
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-recaps-key-milestones-of-2022/ High Tide CEO On M&A, New Products And 3 Factors Holding The Cannabis Stock Back [12/22/22] --
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/22/12/29959300/high-tide-ceo-on-m-a-new-products-and-3-factors-holding-the-cannabis-stock-back How High Tide Became the ‘Costco of Cannabis’ [11/23/22] --
https://www.cannabisbusinesstimes.com/news/how-high-tide-became-the-costco-of-cannabis-canna-cabana/ Q3 2022 ER RECAP [reported 9/14]
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-reports-third-quarter-2022-financial-results-featuring-a-98-increase-in-revenue-and-tenth-straight-quarter-of-positive-adjusted-ebitda/ A) Q3 ER showed continued growth in same store sales and 1% in market share every quarter! The discount club concept launched in late 2021 continues to drive sales & loyalty.
· Revenue $95.4MM - up 98% Y/Y -- 18% seq
· SSS (aka Same store sales)
up 46% Y/Y -- 18% seq
· Adj EBITDA $4.2MM - up 176% Y/Y -- 77% seq
· Revenue now on $450+MM run rate.
📊
Graph of High Tide's National Market Share growth by quarter (since launching the discount club biz model) --
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlO4PLiXgAQbY4e?format=jpg&name=small 📊
Graph of High Tide's revenue growth --
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkhCCy-X0AMy8pg?format=png&name=small B) NDF: $19M in Non-Dilutive Financing alleviates any cash concerns at industry leading <9% interest rates.
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-closes-19-million-non-dilutive-credit-facility-with-connectfirst-credit-union/ C) Cabana Elite monetization : Raj going to start to monetize the membership by EOY. Profits go straight to the bottom line. 900k members now. Example: if 20% of 1M members (200k) subscribe at $5/month ($60/year), that's an extra $12M in profit!
High Tide Launches Exclusive Paid Membership Program: “Cabana Elite” [11/29/22] --
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-launches-exclusive-paid-membership-program-cabana-elite/ DISCOUNT CLUB BIZ MODEL [launched 12/20/21. paid Cabana Elite membership launched 11/29/22]
Launched 10/20/21 with 245K members. Currently 900K+ members as of EOY '22!
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-becomes-north-americas-first-cannabis-discount-club-retailer-with-over-245000-members/.
This was a DATA DRIVEN decision based on successful pilot programs
Membership in this loyalty program is FREE. Every person who walks into a Canna Cabana sees a high cost for non-members, and a discounted cost for members. When they realize signing up for FREE with their email address and phone # (SMS) makes them a MEMBER of the CABANA CLUB, they will do so in order to save money on that purchase and future purchases.
Stores are stocked w/ HIGH MARGIN products like consumption accessories, CBD, and house brands of shatter & gummies & prerolls -- with other form factors later.
Market Share and Same Store Sales growth are WAY up (see Q3 ER recap above) Q over Q while the other retailers (& USA MSOs btw) are seeing declines.
MEANING OF THE ACQUISITION OF NULEAF NATURALS [acquired on 11/22/21]
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-continues-expansion-into-global-cbd-market-with-acquisition-of-colorado-based-nuleaf-naturals/ Headquartered in Denver CO, NuLeaf Naturals is one of the leading CBD brands in the United States in terms of CBD blend research and intellectual property, rapid growth, and industry-leading margins. $16 million of the ~$20 million in revenue is directed to the consumer, but the expanding deal with Sprouts will allow for B&M's wider retail distribution. It is notable that their facility is cGMP certified. It can generate up to 60,000 vegan soft-gels per hour, or 25% of their activity. FabCBD production, co-packing and shipping were moved to the facility to save costs through operational efficiency. NULEAF comes with a cGMP certified manufacturing facility in Denver CO, USA, state of the art in CBD and other cannabinoids
🏧 KIOSK (FASTENDR) [launched 5/1/22]
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-acquire-fastendr-retail-kiosk-and-smart-locker-technology-through-acquisition-of-bud-room-inc/. {Launched 5/1/22. Currently 175 Fastendr kiosks are operational in 120 Canna Cabana stores as of EOY '22}
The Discount Club model is causing long lines out the door. Taking a page from major retailers in other industries, this allows customers to order online or at a kiosk and collect from a "smart" locker. For those customers who know what they want and don't need budtender guidance, this is a handy convenience. Very few dispensaries in the world have this experience. Also mentioned in the PR is a desire to license this technology to other dispensaries and industries which could turn into another revenue stream. Delivery will be made available to all locations permitted by law but this offers a fast, convenient and quick way to ordecollect. It also cuts the dollars spent on budtenders by keeping the lines moving.
+ 🌿 SEEDS [Launched 12/13/22]
https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-enters-new-vertical-in-the-united-states-with-launch-of-cannabis-seeds/ Selling seeds is another high-margin revenue stream growing HITI's $3 million global customer database of High Lifetime Value users!
COMMANDING ECOMM RETAILER MULTIPLES
High Margin Private Label THC and FabCBD.com / BlessedCBD / NuLeaf, one of the main reasons High Tide is expected to be profitable later in 2023. When high tide...
A) Sells most accessories and CBD worldwide.
B) Owns multiple businesses in the US.
C) Sells data, kiosks and cannabis seeds
D) Selling their private label (think Kirkland) edible THC, vape and flower brands. E) Supplies supplies to dispensaries in multiple states.
F) PARTNER WITH STATE OPERATORS TO GIVE THEM ACCESS TO SELL THC TO THEIR HIGH VALUE CANNABIS CONSUMERS OVER 3 MILLION LIVES ...still only considered a Canadian cannabis retailer?
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2023.04.01 06:10 araes3x Weight distribution
I recently got a '22 zforce 950 sport. It's been a blast, everything I've wanted for fun around the property. I was wondering if anyone knew how the weight in this machine was distributed? Now that winter is breaking in my area I'd like to take it places but I have a tilt trailer that just barely fits it. Now I'm comfortable on backroad low speeds but if I go anywhere faster than 40mph I kinda gotta load it up correctly. My trailer axle sits almost dead center of the sxs so tongue weight is kinda hard to judge and front forward and rear forward both feel the same when pulling it back down from tilt. So does anyone know if the 950 sport is front heavy or rear heavy?
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2023.04.01 05:16 mauryacse AI will kill all jobs in this world, really?
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become one of the most popular and exciting technologies of our time, and it's increasingly becoming integrated into our daily lives. However, with the rapid growth of AI, there has been much debate and speculation regarding its impact on the job market. Some believe that AI will eventually replace human labor, leading to mass unemployment and widespread economic disruption. Others argue that AI will create new opportunities and industries, leading to a more prosperous future. In this article, we will explore both sides of the debate and attempt to answer the question: Will AI kill all jobs in this world?
The argument that AI will lead to mass unemployment rests on the idea that machines will eventually be able to perform most human tasks more efficiently and effectively than humans. With advancements in machine learning and other AI technologies, machines are becoming increasingly sophisticated and capable of taking over many jobs that are currently done by humans. This includes everything from data analysis to customer service to driving.
Proponents of this argument point to the fact that automation has already had a significant impact on many industries. For example, manufacturing jobs have been steadily declining over the past few decades due to the increasing use of robots and other automated machines. The rise of online shopping has also led to a decline in the number of jobs in traditional brick-and-mortar retail stores, as more consumers choose to shop online.
Moreover, the development of self-driving cars is predicted to have a significant impact on the job market. With the advent of autonomous vehicles, millions of truck and taxi drivers could be out of work. In addition, AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants are already replacing many human customer service representatives, with companies like Amazon and Google investing heavily in these technologies.
However, while it's true that AI is already having an impact on the job market, it's important to note that it's not all bad news. Many experts believe that AI will create new jobs and industries that we can't even imagine yet. For example, as AI becomes more sophisticated, it will require skilled professionals to design, develop, and maintain these systems. This includes everything from AI programmers to data scientists to AI ethicists who will be needed to ensure that these systems are developed and used in an ethical manner.
In addition, AI is likely to lead to the creation of new products and services that we can't even imagine yet. For example, the development of AI-powered medical devices could revolutionize healthcare, leading to new treatments and cures for diseases. Similarly, AI-powered robots could be used to perform dangerous jobs like mining and construction, leading to a decrease in workplace injuries and fatalities.
Furthermore, while it's true that AI may lead to the displacement of some jobs, it's important to remember that this is not a new phenomenon. Throughout history, technological advancements have led to the displacement of certain jobs, but they have also led to the creation of new industries and opportunities. For example, the rise of the internet has led to the creation of new jobs in fields like web design, digital marketing, and e-commerce.
Moreover, many experts believe that AI will actually lead to an increase in productivity, which could have positive implications for the job market. By automating certain tasks, businesses will be able to increase efficiency and reduce costs, allowing them to invest in new products and services that create new jobs.
Despite the potential benefits of AI, there are still valid concerns regarding its impact on the job market. One of the main concerns is that AI will lead to a concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a small number of companies and individuals. This is because AI technologies are expensive to develop and maintain, which means that only large companies and wealthy individuals will be able to afford them.
Moreover, there are concerns that AI will lead to a further widening of the income gap between the rich and the poor.Another concern is that AI will exacerbate existing inequalities in the job market. For example, AI-powered recruitment tools could perpetuate biases in the hiring process, leading to discrimination against certain groups of people. In addition, there are concerns that AI-powered robots will primarily be used to replace low-skilled jobs, which are often held by workers from marginalized communities.
Furthermore, there are concerns about the potential for AI to be used for malicious purposes. For example, AI-powered cyberattacks could lead to widespread disruption and economic damage. Similarly, the development of autonomous weapons systems could lead to new forms of warfare that could have devastating consequences.
Despite these concerns, there are steps that can be taken to mitigate the negative impacts of AI on the job market. One of the most important steps is to invest in education and training programs that prepare workers for the jobs of the future. This includes training programs for AI-related fields, as well as programs that teach workers the skills they need to adapt to the changing job market.
In addition, policymakers can take steps to ensure that the benefits of AI are distributed more evenly. This includes implementing policies like a universal basic income, which would provide all citizens with a minimum level of income regardless of their employment status. Similarly, policymakers can take steps to ensure that AI-powered technologies are developed and used in an ethical manner, by setting standards and regulations that prioritize the well-being of workers and society as a whole.
Overall, the question of whether AI will kill all jobs in this world is a complex and nuanced one. While there are certainly valid concerns about the potential negative impacts of AI on the job market, there are also many reasons to be optimistic about the future. With the right investments in education and training, and the right policies in place, we can ensure that AI leads to a more prosperous and equitable future for all.
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2023.04.01 01:39 Then_Marionberry_259 MAR 31, 2023 DSV.TO DISCOVERY REPORTS Q4 2022 FINANCIAL RESULTS AND UPDATE
| https://preview.redd.it/16ebx8ftu5ra1.png?width=3500&format=png&auto=webp&s=220b96865ee76a96ecca92dc95fc229089e7c9fb TORONTO, March 31, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Discovery Silver Corp. (TSX: DSV, OTCQX: DSVSF) (“Discovery” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce its financial results for the fourth quarter (“Q4 2022”) and year ended December 31, 2022, and to provide a summary of key events for the quarter and subsequent to year-end. All figures are stated in Canadian dollars (“C$”) unless otherwise noted. Discovery’s flagship project is the 100%-owned Cordero silver project (“Cordero” or the “Project”) located in Chihuahua State, Mexico. Tony Makuch, CEO, states: “The significant progress we made at Cordero in 2022, culminating in the delivery of a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) in early 2023, has demonstrated that Cordero is one of the most exciting development projects in the mining space globally with the potential to become one of the top three largest silver mines and top ten largest zinc mines worldwide. The PFS demonstrates excellent economics and is highly capital efficient through building in phases to minimize the upfront capital for Phase 1 and have the project finance the final build by utilizing operating cash flow to fund Phase 2. Additionally, the PFS incorporates less than 50% of the current known resource tonnes, creating significant leverage and optionality with only a modest increase in metal prices. The design of the reserve pit fitting within the shell of the resource pit also supports this option. There also remains further significant exploration upside, with the deposit still open at depth, and a number of other targets defined elsewhere on the property. “Work on our Feasibility Study, which is expected to be delivered in the first half of next year, is already well underway with recent drilling in and around the pit highlighting further growth potential beyond what was outlined in the PFS. Alongside our Feasibility Study work we remain committed to maintaining our positive working relationships with all local stakeholders and look forward to initiating the construction permitting process next quarter and the commencement of property-wide exploration on our highly prospective land package in the middle of the year.” HIGHLIGHTS FROM Q4 2022 & SUBSEQUENT EVENTS: - Completion of our PFS on Cordero that outlined an 18-year mine life with average annual production of 33 Moz AgEq at an average AISC of $12.80/oz AgEq in Years 1 to 12. The after-tax NPV5% was US$1.2 B and the IRR was 28% at base case metal prices of Ag - US$22.00/oz, Au - US$1,600/oz, Pb - US$1.00/lb and Zn - US$1.20/lb.
- The appointment of Tony Makuch as the Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Makuch has more than 35 years of development, operational and leadership experience. Most recently he was CEO of Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. where, under his five-year tenure, annual gold production grew from 315,000 oz to over 1,400,000 oz and Kirkland Lake’s share price increased over 500%.
- The graduation to the main board of the Toronto Stock Exchange reflecting the Company’s maturity and growth with Cordero now having advanced to the feasibility study stage.
- The announcement of the filing of a Final Short Form Base Shelf Prospectus allowing for the sale of Common Shares, Warrants, Subscription Receipts and Units of the Company in one or more series of issuances for aggregate gross proceeds of up to $300,000,000 for a period of 25 months following the filing.
- The Company’s receipt of its official ESR Certification, which is issued by the Mexican Center for Philanthropy to organizations that have demonstrated they operate in a socially and environmentally responsible manner.
- Announcement of the Company’s work program for 2023 that includes: significant advancement of FS scope items, the initiation of the construction permitting process, an initial 9,000 m drill program planned across multiple targets on the Company’s prospective land package, and further investment in our well-established ESG programs as part of our commitment to work with all local stakeholders.
- As of December 31, 2022, we had a cash and cash equivalents balance of $46.2 million.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Company has now completed 39,000 m of its Feasibility Study drill program that consists of engineering drilling, resource upgrade drilling, and step-out drilling targeting the expansion of the PFS open pit. The drill results subsequent to the PFS cut-off date continue to demonstrate the mineral resource growth potential that could be unlocked and included in the upcoming Feasibility Study. Resource upgrade infill and step-out drilling returned a number of higher-grade intercepts within, and below, the reserves pit, in areas that were previously modeled as low-grade ore. The Company has the potential to continue lowering Cordero’s strip ratio by converting the waste to ore within the pit and expand the pit at depth. The Company’s drill program in 2023 at the project is designed to support the FS through condemnation and geotechnical investigation for locating site infrastructure and for hydrogeology investigation. The FS is expected to be completed in the first half of 2024, with the construction permitting work being performed in parallel. The submission of the Environmental Impact Statement (“Manifesto de Impacto Ambiental” or “MIA”) is expected to be made to the Mexican Federal Environmental Department (“SEMARNAT”) in the first half of 2023. Assuming a 12 to 24 month permitting timeline, this would position the Company to make a construction decision during the second half of 2024. In parallel with these work plans our ESG program continues to be an important area of focus, with our 2022 ESG report scheduled for issuance in 2Q 2023, and key government and international accreditation certifications planned for completion in the second half of 2023. We also remain committed to the growth potential of Cordero almost 9,000 m of drilling planned this year on resource expansion targets and our first ever drilling of five highly prospective property targets within 10 km of Cordero. Our balance sheet remains exceptionally strong with a current cash balance of approximately $38 million and no debt, sufficient to finance the 2023 work program at Cordero. The Company recently filed a final base shelf prospectus allowing for the sale of Common Shares, Warrants, Subscription Receipts and Units of the Company in one or more series of issuance for aggregate gross proceeds of up to $300 million for a period of 25 months following the filing. The Company expects to complete a Definitive Feasibility Study for the first half of 2024, and advance Cordero through to a construction decision following the release of the FS and completion of the necessary financings. SUMMARY OF Q4 2022 & SUBSEQUENT EVENTS: Environment, Social, Governance: The Company continues to make excellent progress on its Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) initiatives. Recent highlights include: - Community Programs – ongoing sponsorship of the supply of equipment and medicine to the mobile medical unit that was donated to the Parral municipality in 2022. The also provided assistance with the construction of local medical clinic in 2022. Both the medical unit and clinic have the capacity to serve approximately 70,000 people per annum within the Parral municipality.
- Socially Responsible Enterprise (Empresa Socialmente Responsable) Certification : the Company has received its official ESR certification from the Mexican Center for Philanthropy (Centro Mexicano para la Filantropia) in Q4 2022. The certification requires the Company’s commitment to five pillars: business ethics, community engagement, protection and preservation of the environment, quality of life for employees and corporate social responsibility.
- Great Place to Work Certification
- this certification was awarded to the Company in Q4 2022 and recognizes companies that create an outstanding employee experience through building a workplace culture of trust, credibility, respect, pride and collaboration.
Further details can be found in the news releases dated November 11, 2022, and January 12, 2023, and in the Company’s 2021 ESG report available on the Company’s website. The 2022 ESG report is progressing well and is expected to be published Q2 2023. Projects: Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) On January 24, 2023, we announced the results from the PFS on Cordero. Highlights from the study include: - Excellent project economics: Base Case after-tax NPV5% of US$1.2 Billion (C$1.5 Billion) and IRR of 28% (Ag - US$22.00/oz, Au - US$1,600/oz, Pb - US$1.00/lb and Zn - US$1.20/lb).
- Extended mine life & higher production: 18-year mine life with average annual production of 33 Moz AgEq.
- High margins & low capital intensity maintained: average AISC of US$12.80/oz AgEq in Years 1 to 12 with an initial development capex of US$455 M resulting in an attractive NPV-to-capex ratio of 2.5x.
- Significantly de-risked Reserve base: new Reserves declared of Ag - 266 Moz, Au - 790 koz, Pb - 2,970 Mlb and Zn – 4,650 Mlb; more than 70% of mill feed in Years 1 to 5 classified as Proven.
- Exceptional silver price leverage: PFS mine plan assumes only 42% of Measured & Indicated Resource tonnes are processed; clear potential to significantly extend mine life at higher silver prices.
- ESG/economic contribution: total estimated taxes payable of US$1.2 Billion, a peak estimated local workforce of over 1,000 employees and over $4 Billion of expected goods and services purchased locally within Mexico over the life of the mine.
The PFS was released in conjunction with an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”). Further details on the PFS and MRE results can be found in our news release dated January 24, 2023, and in the supporting technical report filed on SEDAR and on the Company’s website. Feasibility Study drilling Feasibility Study drilling commenced in Q3 2022 and work is expected to be ongoing throughout 2023. The program is anticipated to consist of approximately 50,000 m of drilling related to engineering drilling, reserve expansion drilling and resource upgrade drilling. To date, the Company has released 45 drill holes consisting of 20,000 m of drilling. These initial drill holes were focused on two key areas: 1) expansion of reserves within and beneath the Pre-Feasibility Study open pit and 2) upgrading and expansion of the resource in the far northeast of the deposit. Reserve Expansion Drilling – highlight intercepts from this drilling include: - 77 m averaging 126 g/t AgEq 1 (46 g/t Ag, 0.08 g/t Au, 0.7% Pb and 1.4% Zn) from 218 m and 22 m averaging 265 g/t AgEq 1 (83 g/t Ag, 0.10 g/t Au, 1.8% Pb and 3.2% Zn) from 374 m within the PFS pit in areas modelled as low to medium grade in hole C22-656.
- 96 m averaging 124 g/t AgEq 1 (33 g/t Ag, 0.03 g/t Au, 0.7% Pb and 1.8% Zn) from 464 m on the margins of the PFS pit in hole C22-654.
- 32 m averaging 158 g/t AgEq 1 (77 g/t Ag, 0.16 g/t Au, 0.7% Pb and 1.3% Zn) from 108 m and 39 m averaging 241 g/t AgEq 1 (124 g/t Ag, 0.09 g/t Au, 1.2% Pb and 1.9% Zn) from 185 m within the reserves pit in the South Corridor in hole C22-677.
- 36 m averaging 126 g/t AgEq 1 (35 g/t Ag, 0.06 g/t Au, 0.7% Pb and 1.7% Zn) from 481 m and 27 m averaging 133 g/t AgEq 1 (25 g/t Ag, 0.06 g/t Au, 0.6% Pb and 2.2% Zn) from 555 m in hole C22-687; these intervals were toward the bottom and beneath the reserves pit in an area previously modelled as waste.
These positive drill results demonstrate the potential to expand reserves through the conversion of waste to ore within the reserves pit and through the expansion at depth of the reserves pit. Far Northeast Drilling – Drilling in 2022 outlined low grade mineralization with a number of discrete high-grade zones in the far northeast of the deposit, more than 1 km beyond the limits of the reserves pit. Most of this mineralization is within 100 m of surface and is included within the resource pit constraint as part of the January 2023 resource update. 15 follow up drill holes have been completed testing the lateral depth and strike extent of mineralization within this zone. This drilling confirms the presence of a broad mineralized fracture system in the area. The orientation of mineralization does not appear to be consistent with the dominant northeast orientation evident in the main part of the Cordero deposit. A more detailed review of fracture orientation along with further drilling is required to develop a better understanding of the main controls of mineralization in this part of the deposit. For further details on the drill results noted above refer to our news releases dated November 17, 2022 and March 22, 2023. Supporting Technical Disclosure for drill results can be found at the end of this release. SELECTED FINANCIAL DATA: The following selected financial data is summarized from the Company’s consolidated financial statements and related notes thereto (the “Financial Statements”) for the year ended December 31, 2022, and the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) for the year ended December 31, 2022. A copy of the Financial Statements and MD&A is available at www.discoverysilver.com or on SEDAR at www.sedar.com https://preview.redd.it/1oboxcltu5ra1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=9dd9deb4c36ae42b3c81d41a72ed5cbad7a5fdea https://preview.redd.it/qrrnm2mtu5ra1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4141233a7a0af8a249cc22305a03ace5d8d52a1 (1) Non-GAAP measure defined as current assets less current liabilities from the Company’s consolidated financial statements. About Discovery Discovery’s flagship project is its 100%-owned Cordero project, one of the world’s largest silver deposits. The PFS completed in January 2023 demonstrates that Cordero has the potential to be developed into a highly capital efficient mine that offers the combination of margin, size and scaleability. Cordero is located close to infrastructure in a prolific mining belt in Chihuahua State, Mexico. Continued exploration and project development at Cordero is supported by a strong balance sheet with cash of approximately C$38 million. On Behalf of the Board of Directors, Tony Makuch, P.Eng CEO & Director For further information contact: Forbes Gemmell, CFA VP Corporate Development Phone: 416-613-9410 Email: [email protected] Website: www.discoverysilver.com TECHNICAL NOTES & REFERENCES: Drill results: all drill results in this news release are rounded. Assays are uncut and undiluted. Widths are drilled widths, not true widths, as a full interpretation of the actual orientation of mineralization is not complete. As a guideline, intervals with disseminated mineralization were chosen based on a 25 g/t AgEq cutoff with no more than 10 m of dilution. AgEq calculations are used as the basis for total metal content calculations given Ag is the dominant metal constituent as a percentage of AgEq value in approximately 70% of the Company’s mineralized intercepts. AgEq calculations for reported drill results are based on USD $22.00/oz Ag, $1,600/oz Au, $1.00/lb Pb, $1.20/lb Zn. The calculations assume 100% metallurgical recovery and are indicative of gross in-situ metal value at the indicated metal prices. Sample analysis and QA/QC Program The true width of the veins is estimated to be approximately 70% of the drilled width. Assays are uncut except where indicated. All core assays are from HQ drill core unless stated otherwise. Drill core is logged and sampled in a secure core storage facility located at the project site 40km north of the city of Parral. Core samples from the program are cut in half, using a diamond cutting saw, and are sent to ALS Geochemistry-Mexico for preparation in Chihuahua City, Mexico, and subsequently pulps are sent to ALS Vancouver, Canada, which is an accredited mineral analysis laboratory, for analysis. All samples are prepared using a method whereby the entire sample is crushed to 70% passing -2mm, a split of 250g is taken and pulverized to better than 85% passing 75 microns. Samples are analyzed for gold using standard Fire Assay-AAS techniques (Au-AA24) from a 50g pulp. Over limits are analyzed by fire assay and gravimetric finish. Samples are also analyzed using thirty three-element inductively coupled plasma method (“ME-ICP61”). Over limit sample values are re-assayed for: (1) values of zinc > 1%; (2) values of lead > 1%; and (3) values of silver > 100 g/t. Samples are re-assayed using the ME-OG62 (high-grade material ICP-AES) analytical package. For values of silver greater than 1,500 g/t, samples are re-assayed using the Ag-CON01 analytical method, a standard 30 g fire assay with gravimetric finish. Certified standards and blanks are routinely inserted into all sample shipments to ensure integrity of the assay process. Selected samples are chosen for duplicate assay from the coarse reject and pulps of the original sample. No QAQC issues were noted with the results reported herein. Qualified Person Gernot Wober, P.Geo, VP Exploration, Discovery Silver Corp., is the Company's designated Qualified Person for this news release within the meaning of National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (“NI 43-101”) and has reviewed and validated that the information contained in this news release is accurate. The most recent technical report for the Cordero Project is the 2023 Preliminary Feasibility Study for the Company’s Cordero project. The report was completed by Ausenco with support from by AGP, Knight Piésold and Hard Rock and is available on Discovery’s website and on SEDAR under Discovery Silver Corp. The PFS assumed average life-of-mine recovery assumptions for of 87% for Ag, 22% for Au, 86% for Pb and 85% for Zn. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: Neither TSX Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in policies of the TSX Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release. This news release is not for distribution to United States newswire services or for dissemination in the United States. This news release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of any of the securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful, including any of the securities in the United States of America. The securities have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “1933 Act”) or any state securities laws and may not be offered or sold within the United States or to, or for account or benefit of, U.S. Persons (as defined in Regulation S under the 1933 Act) unless registered under the 1933 Act and applicable state securities laws, or an exemption from such registration requirements is available. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This news release may include forward-looking statements that are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. All statements within this news release, other than statements of historical fact, are to be considered forward looking. Although Discovery believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements. Statements regarding the results of the pre-feasibility study and the anticipated capital and operating costs, sustaining costs, net present value, internal rate of return, payback period, process capacity, average annual metal production, average process recoveries, concession renewal, permitting of the Project, anticipated mining and processing methods, proposed pre-feasibility study production schedule and metal production profile, anticipated construction period, anticipated mine life, expected recoveries and grades, anticipated production rates, infrastructure, social and environmental impact studies, availability of labour, tax rates and commodity prices that would support development of the Project. Information concerning mineral resource/reserve estimates and the economic analysis thereof contained in the results of the pre-feasibility study are also forward-looking statements in that they reflect a prediction of the mineralization that would be encountered, and the results of mining, if a mineral deposit were developed and mined. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts which address events, results, outcomes or developments that the Company expects to occur. Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs, estimates and opinions of the Company’s management on the date the statements are made and they involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements include fluctuations in market prices, including metal prices, continued availability of capital and financing, and general economic, market or business conditions. There can be no assurances that such statements will prove accurate and, therefore, readers are advised to rely on their own evaluation of such uncertainties. Discovery does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required under applicable laws. The risks and uncertainties that may affect forward-looking statements, or the material factors or assumptions used to develop such forward-looking information, are described under the heading "Risks Factors" in the Company’s Annual Information Form dated March 29, 2023, which is available under the Company’s issuer profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. NON-GAAP MEASURES: The Company has included certain non-GAAP performance measures as detailed below. In the mining industry, these are common performance measures but may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers and the non-GAAP measures do not have any standardized meaning. Accordingly, it is intended to provide additional information and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. CASH COSTS PER OUNCE The Company calculated total cash costs per ounce by dividing the sum of operating costs, royalty costs, production taxes, refining and shipping costs, by payable silver-equivalent ounces. While there is no standardized meaning of the measure across the industry, the Company believes that this measure is useful to external users in assessing operating performance. ALL-IN SUSTAINING COSTS ("AISC") The Company has provided an AISC performance measure that reflects all the expenditures that are required to produce an ounce of payable metal. While there is no standardized meaning of the measure across the industry, the Company’s definition conforms to the all-in sustaining cost definition as set out by the World Gold Council in its guidance dated June 27, 2013. Subsequent amendments to the guidance have not materially affected the figures presented. FREE CASH FLOW Free Cash Flow is a non-GAAP performance measure that is calculated as cash flows from operations net of cash flows invested in mineral property, plant and equipment and exploration and evaluation assets. The Company believes that this measure is useful to the external users in assessing the Company’s ability to generate cash flows from its mineral projects. https://preview.redd.it/orlsovmtu5ra1.png?width=150&format=png&auto=webp&s=28898e09cbf6571c1e868b8d87b17e1b0bde3e83 https://preview.redd.it/94bb9nntu5ra1.png?width=4000&format=png&auto=webp&s=b253b3227defccc9499bfb24823e0b63d9f550ae submitted by Then_Marionberry_259 to Treaty_Creek [link] [comments] |
2023.03.31 23:18 Maleficent_Plankton Bitcoin - Research (Mar 2023)
Last updated: Mar 2023
Intro
This is a long Deep Dive of Bitcoin that goes into its general topics while cutting out the bullshit.
Its target audience are crypto experts who write crypto guides for others. I've included sources inline so you can reuse them.
Bitcoin Purpose and History
History
Bitcoin was the first popular cryptocurrency. It was invented in 2008 during the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis by an anonymous entity under the pen name of Satoshi Nakamoto and launched in 2009. For the first several years, fewer than 100 supporters worked altruistically to develop its code and mine the network. It is a disinflationary cryptocurrency with a supply cap of 21M Bitcoins (2.1 quintillion Satoshis).
Core Devs
Gavin Andresen later replaced Nakamoto as the lead developer of the Bitcoin code repository and lead developer at the Bitcoin Foundation. There are currently only 5 Bitcoin Core maintainers with commit access after both Peter Wuille and Lead Developer Wladamir van der Laan left in July and August 2022.
Block size
Bitcoin's blocks were originally limited to 32MB in size but later reduced to 1MB in 2010. After the Segwit update, blocksize changed again from 1MB to 4M weight (technically it's also 1MB). In Nov 2021, the Taproot soft fork was activated, which allows for signature aggregation via Schnorr signatures.
Bitcoin is currently the most popular cryptocurrency and marketcap leader. Since cryptocurrency value is largely based on network effect and is a Keynesian Beauty Contest, it is likely to remain popular until that narrative changes.
Purpose
The original purpose of Bitcoin from Satoshi's whitepaper was to provide a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system". During the early years, the main use case for Bitcoin was black market trading on sites like the Silk Road. Many larger merchants that accepted Bitcoin for payment in the earlier years stopped due to extreme price fluctuations.
Instead, nearly all merchants now work through centralized payment systems that convert Bitcoin into fiat. Its extreme price fluctuations also prevent it from being an ideal Store of Value, and it's too slow and inefficient to be used as a Medium-of-Exchange for day-to-day transactions. Thus, the only notable purposes of Bitcoin nowadays (besides being a speculative asset) is to provide censorship-resistance and pseudonymity.
Anti-censorship: Bitcoin provides partial financial censorship-resistance against sanctions and totalitarian government restrictions. It's much harder to prevent Bitcoin transactions than it is to prevent financial transactions at a centralized bank. For example, many Russians, Iranian, and North Koreans are getting around sanctions by using Bitcoin and mixers. Legal sex workers and marijuana industries are sometimes blocked from using traditional financial services due to social stigma. Bitcoin provides those workers a way to transfer funds around that censorship.
Pseudonymous: Bitcoin's UTXO transactions can provide moderately-high levels of obscurity. A single wallet can produce a near-unlimited amount of addresses, and there's no way to link them unless they interact with each other. It's much harder to trace UTXO-based wallets than Account-based wallets because the former creates new UTXO addresses with each transaction while Account-based blockchain wallets typically reuse the same account.
Design and Consensus
Proof of Work
Bitcoin uses Proof of Work, which provides both Nakamoto Consensus and Sybil Resistance. In Proof of Work, miners compete to solve a cryptography hash puzzle that has a set number of leading zeros. Whoever figures it out is able to package a block of transactions from the mempool and submit it. PoW is very similar to picking the winning block based on a lottery where a miner's chances of winning is directly proportional to how much energy they waste. Bitcoin was originally mined by CPUs, then GPUs, and now can only be efficiently mined by specialized ASIC processors.
Slow finality
The longest chain (technically the highest-difficulty chain) is known as the canonical chain, and miners are supposed to build on that chain. However, they can decide to build on another chain and fork Bitcoin. Bitcoin is constantly being forked, sometimes intentionally and other times accidentally or due to network latency. However, only the longest chain is considered the canonical chain. Thus Bitcoin has probabilistic finality instead of deterministic finality, which means that the Bitcoin Proof of Work consensus protocol can not guarantee that transactions are final.
Block times are about 10 minutes each with 4M-weight blocks. This allows for a maximum of about 5-7 transactions per second. Block times are variable and very inconsistent. 14% of block times are longer than 20 minutes, and 5% are longer than 30 minutes [Source]. Most exchanges and wallets use 3-6 blocks for finality, which means that you should wait ~60 minutes before assuming a transaction has settled. This makes it one of the slowest popular crypto networks. Many newer Proof of Stake blockchains settle 100x faster in under 10-30 seconds.
Difficulty adjustments
The puzzle difficulty is algorithmically set so that blocks are submitted once every 10 minutes on average. Every 2 weeks, the difficulty automatically readjusts to maintain constant block times. Due to the difficulty and rarity of solving the block puzzle as an individual, miners often join mining pools where their rewards are collectively split. Miners in mining pools often get paid by the pool for solving easier puzzles (fewer leading zeros).
Block rewards
The winning miner is rewarded with a block reward, which is the sum of the block subsidy (built-in inflation on the Bitcoin network used to pay for its security) and the transaction fee (paid by the user submitting the transaction). The block subsidy halves in nominal BTC roughly once every 3.8 years, meaning that it reduces by 99% every 27 years.
UTXO Transactions
UTXO Basics
Bitcoin uses UTXO transactions, which store the unspent input and output balances of a transaction. Unlike account transactions, it is difficult to keep track of the balance of an user's account with UTXO. UTXOs are also less storage-efficient because they usually have multiple input and output UTXOs. There's usually one additional output UTXO to store the remaining change balance, and wallets automatically combine multiple inputs. Combining multiple inputs also makes them susceptible to dust attacks that reduce your privacy.
Like Ethereum smart contracts, Bitcoin can save space and fees using batch transactions, and it can do this natively using UTXO without needing smart contracts.
Transactions are submitted with a fee to the Bitcoin network. They sit in the mempool until a miner packages them into a block. The higher the fee, the quicker miners will pick up the transactions. Users can also use Replace By Fee and Child Pays For Parent to increase the transaction fee of previously-submitted transactions.
Transaction size calculations
After the Segwit update, newer transactions calculate size based on weight units instead of bytes. A vByte is equivalent to 4 weight units. To calculate weight units, the non-witness parts (including the marker and flag) of the Bitcoin transaction in bytes are multiplied by a factor of 4.
Bitcoin transactions vary in size depending on how many inputs and output UTXOs they have. Also, different versions of UTXOs vary the weight greatly. The typical 620-weight (155 byte) transaction has a throughput of 11 TPS. The typical multisig is 2x slower.
For basic transactions, Coinbase's analysis and Hasu's analysis show that the savings for batching Bitcoin output UTXOs is at maximum 78% for storage (141 vbytes for a 1:2 transfer vs 141+31n vbytes for a 1:n transfer). There are limits to savings because input and output addresses take up the majority of space in transactions. Input addresses in particular take up twice as much space (68 vbytes) as output addresses (31-34 vbytes), so batching inputs has less savings. If you filled up an entire 4M-weight block with a single batch transaction with 125k output UTXOs, you could theoretically increase effective throughput from 3.8 TPS to 54 TfrPS. However, that's an incredibly unrealistic scenario, and with the current mix of transaction types on the blockchain, the actual effective transfers is closer to 17 TfrPS even when blocks are 100% filled.
Each 4M-weight block can hold roughly 2000 transactions on average. A typical 1 UTXO input, 2 UTXO transaction uses 155 vBytes. Multisigs start at ~200 vBytes.
Forking
Soft Forks
The advantage of soft forks
All updates on the canonical Bitcoin chain are done through soft forks. This has the advantage that no one is required to update their nodes to the latest version. Everyone is allowed the freedom of choice over whether to update.
The disadvantage of soft forks
The major downside is that Soft forks require new versions of the software to maintain backwards-compatibility with older versions, which leads to a ton of TECHNICAL DEBT. Bitcoin creates new address formats every time it soft-forks to maintain backwards compatibility with old addresses so that nodes can tell them apart. This significantly slows down the adoption of new updates, which now often take 3-6 years to gain the majority.
Nowhere else in the software industry does this happen. Even Linux distributors usually drop support for LTS releases after 5 years, and major releases often break backwards-compatibility.
Due to its soft forks, the Bitcoin network has to maintain a mismatch of all sorts of different formats (P2PK, P2PKH, P2SH, P2MS, P2WPKH, Nested P2WPKH, P2PKH, P2WSH, and P2TR). All the legacy addresses are slightly less efficient than the newer ones and cost more in fees to transact.
At the start of January 2023, only 1% of transactions were using Taproot-compatible addresses while 65% were still using legacy addresses incompatible with the Segwit update from 2017. (You may notice that the percent shot up in Feb 2023, and that was due to Ordinal inscriptions using Taproot.)
- Legacy: 26%
- Nested Segwit (within Legacy): 39%
- Segwit v0: 34%
- Taproot/Bech32m: 1%
Almost no one (1%) is using addresses newer than the 2021 update because none of the major CEXs support them. Most exchanges (Binance, Coinbase, Kraken) don't support Bech32m addresses, which means they can't send to Segwit v1 and Taproot addresses, released through the BIP 350 update.
And this limitation has blocked update progress for years.
In comparison, networks that hard fork for protocol updates don't have these incompatibility issues between versions. Everyone is working on the same version, which allows for consistency. A single Ethereum address is compatible with all versions of Ethereum, Polygon, BSC, Avalanche C-Chain, Fantom, Cronos, Kava, Gnosis, Moobeam, all layer 2 networks, and hundreds of other networks.
Hard Forks
People who don't agree with Bitcoin Core protocol can hard fork it. There are many popular hard forks of Bitcoin. The largest ones are Bitcoin XT (2014), Bitcoin Cash (2017), and Bitcoin SV (2018).
The Bitcoin Cash fork is particularly notable because it was the result of a huge rift within the Bitcoin community over the size of blocks (1MB vs 8MB/32MB). Ultimately, the small-block proponents won the war, and Bitcoin kept its 1MB blocks while large-block proponents hard-forked to BCH. That's a bit ironic since Bitcoin was a 32MB-block chain for most of Satoshi's time. Much like how both mainland China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) claim themselves to be the true Republic of China, both the BTC and BCH communities tried to claim the title of "Bitcoin" even after the split. There was hot blood between them for years.
Reorgs
Reorgs are when a fork happens and the previous longest chain gets completely overwritten by a new longest chain. The new blocks in the previous chain are lost and overwritten. There have been at least 2 reorgs longer than 6 blocks: 51 blocks in Aug 2010 and 24 blocks on Mar 12, 2013 Source 1, Source 2. Both times were caused by coding bugs and had to be fixed by 51% attacks with community approval. The 2010 reorg actually caused Bitcoin to mint 184.4 billion Bitcoins, way past its 21 million cap. There have also been at least three 4-block reorgs prior to 2017. So the usual recommendation to wait 3-6 block confirmations was not guaranteed to be safe in the past. However, it has been stable for the past several years, and we haven't had any reorgs larger than 2 blocks.
Lack of Efficiency
Low throughput and slow block times
Bitcoin is a 3-4 TPS blockchain (when blocks are 100% filled) with a 30-60 minute probabilistic finality. It used to have a maximum of 7 TPS, but that has gradually fallen over the years after the Segwit update and exchanges started using batch transactions. It's much too slow to be used for point-of-sales merchant transactions. In comparison, both Avalanche's X-Chain (another UTXO network) and Algorand can reach 6000 TPS with under 5-sec deterministic finality.
High cost of security
Bitcoin is one of the least efficient cryptocurrencies. In 2021, each block cost roughly $150-300K in costs to mine, which is equivalent to $100-150 of fees per transaction. The amount of energy needed for a single Bitcoin transaction in Sept 2021, ~1800 kWh, is roughly the same as the amount of energy used by a typical US household over 62 days. The total Bitcoin network energy consumption was ~150-200 TWh / yr in 2021-2022. For comparison, the US has 92 Nuclear power plants that produced 778 TWh in 2021 source, so the Bitcoin network uses the equivalent power of 18-24 US nuclear power plants. Another way of looking at this is that Bitcoin consumes about as much energy as all data centers globally [Source].
Mempool congestion
Because of the slow transaction speed of Bitcoin, there's often a traffic jam of transactions waiting to be picked for the next block. Transactions sent to the network via gossip protocol sit in the mempool, and there were several times where the backlog ended up being greater than 100k transactions (8 hours) in 2021 and 2022. Many transactions were untouched for days until they timed out.
Due to its slow speed, Bitcoin is not suitable as a payment system for point-of-sales transactions. It would be silly to ask a customer to wait 60 minutes while the transaction finalizes.
Moderately-high Fees
Bitcoin fees vary with mempool size, congestion, and the sat/vByte ratio. Back in 2010, nearly all Bitcoin transactions had no fee. The fee has risen over time.
Bitcoin's fees are high enough that you can't use them for daily transactions. During the cheapest days of the 2022 bear market, fees fell back to $0.10 to $0.40 per transaction, and a transaction set to 1-2 sat/vB fees would go through in a couple of hours. In a bull market, fees can rise to $1-10 per transaction, and any fee set below 10 sat/vB could stay days in the mempool.
In fact, Layer 1 transfer fees even briefly rose past $50 in May 2021. That's way more than its competitors (e.g. XLM, XRP, Nano, BCH) that have average transfer fees under $0.10. And fees will rise again during the next bull run.
Unable to reach widespread global adoption
At 4 TPS, Bitcoin can only make ~345K transactions/day. There are ~8B people in the world today. If Bitcoin grows to the size of 1% of the population, each person can make an average of 1 on-chain transaction every 230 days. If Bitcoin usage grows to 10% of the population, each person can make an average of 1 on-chain transaction every 6.3 years. Bitcoin cannot achieve even 10% of world adoption unless everyone's solely using centralized exchanges and not interacting with the network itself.
Lightning Network
What is the Lightning Network?
The Lightning Network was built as a partial-Layer 2 protocol to help scale Bitcoin due to Bitcoin's slow throughput and block time limitations.
Lightning uses an interconnected network of State Channels. Two or more parties have to open a multisig payment channel using a Hash TimeLock Contract (~800 weight) and rebalance the initial state. They can do however many transactions as they want off the Bitcoin network until they run out of capacity. Once they're done, they can close the channel and receive their portions of their funds from the channel. The network links multiple of these state channels together to create the Lightning Network.
Meant for small transactions
The total value stored on public Lightning channels account for under 0.02% of Bitcoin's total locked value. Transaction fees are low, so running a Lightning Network Daemon is not particularly profitable, especially since nodes constantly have to rebalance, costing additional fees. The larger your transaction, the higher the fees you have to pay to route it through the network. As of March 2023, the average channel capacity is only 0.07 BTC, and the average node capacity is only 0.33 BTC. It's not uncommon to have a 1 BTC transaction cost $2-10 in fees to route through multiple nodes in the Lightning Network due to limited channel capacity, which can make it more expensive than L1 Bitcoin fees.
Not a true Layer 2
Similar to Plasma channels, the Lightning network is not considered a true Layer 2 because it lacks global state. There are many nodes that are not connected to the rest of the network, and onion routing issues sometimes cause nodes to be disconnected from the rest of the network. Channels only work if everyone's online. If you're offline, others can force-close your channel, leading to a 1-week wait time where the channel's funds are locked and inaccessible.
Partially-centralized, low-security layer
There are a lot of limitations to the Lightning Network, and participants have to monitor their channels constantly to make sure they aren't improperly closed or disconnected.
Most people just connect to centralized nodes in a spoke-hub network topology to gain access to high-capacity nodes. Even though average capacity is getting bigger, the number of public channels has been on the decline since 2021, meaning that Lightning is becoming more centralized.
Rebalancing issues
One of the biggest problems with opening channels is that they start out with zero incoming liquidity. Anyone who opens a channel starts out with a metaphorical full cup of water. They can't receive any more water until they first empty the cup a little. And they can only receive additional water equivalent to the amount they removed. Similarly, people who open new channels to the Lightning network need to find a way to spend their Sats safely so that they can have incoming liquidity. Merchants and Lightning node providers often have a lack of incoming-liquidity while consumers who only spend usually run out of outbound liquidity. They have to pay up to $1 to rebalance each $1000.
There are several ways to get incoming liquidity. You can't just send Sats to another one of your accounts because that will just create a private channel disconnected from the rest of the Lightning network. You have to do it with another node on the Lightning network that has large incoming capacity, and that costs money because that uses up their capacity.
Most methods involve some variation of either 1) paying for a service (as expensive as $1 fee per $1000 of liquidity) or 2) finding other trusted members to take your funds on Lightning and then send you back the funds off-chain or on mainnet. Merchants who only receive funds have to constantly rebalance their channel (or more likely pay some centralized 3rd-party provider to do it). While it's not anywhere as expensive as the 2% that credit card companies charge, it's an ongoing cost and annoyance. Some newer methods available for initial setup are Dual Funding, which is only available for certain nodes like C-Lightning, and liquidity triangles.
Limits to adoption
Not even the Lightning Network could scale Bitcoin beyond 10% global adoption because opening and closing a channel requires 2 on-chain transactions. Each Lightning channel has directional capacity, and whenever that gets exceeded (varying times depending on usage, e.g. every 2-4 weeks), it will need to be rebalanced. This usually means someone on the network is closing and reopening with new capacity. You can't expect people to store months of funds on a single channel. Half of the US is living paycheck to paycheck and gets new checks biweekly. Merchant stores typically close their accounts at the end of the day. If even 1% of the world used the Lightning Network and opened/closed channels twice a year, the Bitcoin Network would become completely congested.
The only way Bitcoin and the Lightning Network could grow to 1% global adoption is if most of the users are only interacting on centralized exchanges/nodes and settling on the Bitcoin network directly no more than twice a year.
Other Weaknesses
Lack of Features
Bitcoin is very basic. It only supports 1 token: Bitcoin. The scripting language it uses, Bitcoin Script, is also rudimentary. Most miners will refuse to run anything beyond the few known basic scripts that have been whitelisted for Bitcoin use. This includes multi-signature and time-locks. These are scripts, but they're too basic to be considered actual smart contracts.
Mining Pool Centralization
The top 3 mining pools own 60% of the network [Source]. Mining is not something the average crypto user can do by themselves unless they join a mining pool because the chance of winning the block is astronomically low. You need an expensive and specialized high-end ASIC miner for SHA-256 mining. To prevent miners from stealing the block, mining pool servers do not provide enough information to miners for them to tell when an attack is coming. They will only find out if they're running full nodes and paying attention, and only after the attack has been committed. Individual miners have no financial incentive to run full nodes, so it's rare for them to be auditing their pool operators.
This could be fixed with Stratum v2, but that's not available yet. And we don't even know if mining pool will allow it. There are multiple configurations of Stratum v2, and only 2 out of 4 give control of block production to miners.
Lack of Client Diversity
Everyone is running some version of Bitcoin Core, which is developed by a single skeleton crew. All documentation on how to run a node point to Bitcoin Core, and if you search for "how to install a node" on Bitcoin Talk, they all use Bitcoin Core.
In addition, the largest mining pools (AntPool, Foundry USA, and F2Pool, and Binance Pool) all use Stratum v1 clients, which gives full control of block production to operators. News about Stratum v2 has been slow, and it's uncertain if the pools will even want to give up their control and switch to it.
In comparison, Etheruem has at least 5 consensus clients and 4 execution clients. And their community is constantly encouraging others to switch to minority clients.
Security Issues
Lack of sustainability
Bitcoin pays its Proof of Work miners with a block reward for providing security to the network. The block reward is the sum of:
- a fixed block subsidy (currently 6.25 BTC) paid through inflation of BTC, and
- a variable transaction fee from customers
Currently, that block subsidy is about $200K per block and it accounts for [97-99%]((https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-fee_to_reward.html)) of the block reward. Thus the current subsidy ($80 per transaction) is over 50x higher than current transaction fees.
As halvings continue and BTC's value can no longer keep doubling (due to exceeding the value of all assets in the world), the total block reward will keep decreasing. Some combination of the following must happen:
- transaction costs increase to replace the block subsidy
- miners drop out, leading to a decrease in Bitcoin's security
I don't expect consumers to pay for $50 transaction fees. Instead, there's a very high chance that Bitcoin will experience an ice age where all miners drop out except for the few miners who can acquire cheap ASIC rigs and run at the cheapest energy costs, leading to more centralization. This has been discussed many times before as the Tragedy of the Commons for Bitcoin since 2011. At that point, it will be extremely profitable to perform 51% attacks.
Susceptible to 51% attacks in the distant future
Proof of Work networks are inherently weak to 51% attacks.
Many smaller PoW have been successfully-attacked by mining pools from larger networks. Some PoW networks like Bitcoin Cash have introduced checkpoints to limit damage from attacks. Bitcoin Cash is actually quite resistant to 51% attacks due to that checkpoint, at the cost of having a longer finality time.
Bitcoin lacks finality checkpoints. It only takes $5-10B of mining equipment to compromise the Bitcoin network, and many billionaires and nation states easily have the funds to do this. Even poor countries like Nigeria have a $400B GDP. What's preventing others from attacking Bitcoin isn't the monetary cost--it's because it's hard to acquire that many mining rigs. But as halvings continue, if the price of Bitcoin doesn't double every 4 years, miners will eventually sell their equipment on secondary markets. Some nation state or billionaire could easily buy them, short Bitcoin, and then 51%-attack the network. They don't even need to go through the trouble of stealing funds.
Simply producing empty blocks is enough to grind the network to a halt. And they still get paid the block subsidy.
List of PROs (below): https://np.reddit.com/MPlankton/comments/127ztpv/bitcoin_research_mar_2023/jegk1nh/
List of CONs (below): https://np.reddit.com/MPlankton/comments/127ztpv/bitcoin_research_mar_2023/jegk6oh/
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2023.03.31 22:30 Ken_the_Andal Manifest Humanity: Part 201
The Ares One was in poor shape in almost every sense of the word. From the outside, one would be hard pressed to say so considering there was virtually no damage to the hull. The insides of humanity’s flagship, however, were an absolute mess. What remained of Leo’s crew were a battered bunch, so many internal systems were badly damaged, and they no longer had a single drone to help speed up the process of repair.
Leo had made the rounds, checked on the numerous injured crewmembers, offered words of support and encouragement, trying to ignore the fact that they meant little to nothing when everyone knew they would mean everything were it Admiral John Peters speaking them rather than the up-jumped Commander he’d left temporarily in charge. One upside was that medical officers seemed to have avoided any serious injuries and thus were able to diligently help the wounded. Even better, most of the medical equipment suffered minimal damage – with some exceptions – and were either still functional or easily repaired.
So far there had been no deaths, but Leo feared that wouldn’t last. At least two of his crew were critically wounded by suicide drones controlled by the Automaton, one in particular with his abdomen nearly ripped open, and the doctors told him that his chances of survival were low since it took so long to get him any treatment. That he was alive at all was itself some sort of miracle, but as Leo saw it, everyone only got one miracle in their lives, and this officer’s miracle had already been granted.
Another positive was there had been no sign of the Automaton commandeering any equipment or systems since they purged the Ares One of its drones. Some engineers were still manually, painstakingly combing through each and every functionality – something they said would take days, maybe even weeks, shiptime since they couldn’t rely on any automated scripts to speed it along, but so far each passing moment made Leo feel more confident they’d successfully purged it from the Ares One, or at least left it in some sort of state where it couldn’t do anything. He didn’t like the thought of a Coalition intelligence silently watching all of them, trapped in paralysis, but then again, there was something gratifying in knowing that all it could do was watch, helpless, as the humans it had tried to kill continued the fight.
“Commander Franklin,” Leo said as he approached the railing overlooking the hangar. Below was a small team cleaning the debris from the compartments that once held the heavyload drones. It was another reminder of just how efficient drones made ship maintenance. Something that was easily left to a drone now required a team of crewmembers to do the job, and the drones were so much faster.
“Admiral-Commander,” Franklin said, sparing a glance.
“Think there’s got to be something around here for you to do given the state of things,” Leo said.
“I know technically you’re my superior now,” Franklin began.
“Technically, literally, really you’re superior,” Leo cut in, flashing a grin.
“Yeah, but right now, I think I just need a moment to catch my damn breath, if that’s okay with you.”
Leo turned and leaned his back against the railing, folding his arms. “What’s on your mind?”
Commander Franklin glanced at Leo again. It was brief, but long enough that Leo could sense something unusual behind the Commander’s eyes.
“I hate to say it – shit, I hate to even think it – but now that I’ve actually had a moment to process everything…I think we’re fucked.”
“Is that so?”
Franklin grunted. “Yeah, it is. How are we not fucked? For all we know, Admiral Peters is already dead. Think about his plan – no, seriously, think about it. Especially now that we know just how many of those Coalition fuckers there are – how many ships they have. How in the hell is anyone going to slip by all of those ships without raising a red flag?” He looked at the floor, shook his head. “Worst part is not knowing. The survival of our species is resting on one man’s gambit, and we won’t know if it works until we either see the enemy lay down their arms and retreat, or we all just…die.”
“I hate not knowing, too,” Leo said. “That’s why we’re not going to wait around.”
“Admiral-Commander Ayers, that plan is even crazier. At least Admiral Peters has the advantage of commandeering a Coalition ship, giving him a chance – however small – of slipping right through their defenses. What do you think they’re going to do when they see an obviously human ship trying to bulldoze its way across the stars and into their territory?”
“Probably try to stop us.”
“Yeah, and what are we doing to do about it? We’re undermanned and outgunned. We don’t even have any drones to help maintain basic ship functions!”
Leo shrugged. “I know. But we either sit here and do nothing, retreat with everyone else, go fight and become a liability in battle, or we try my idea.”
“I hate that they all sound terrible.”
“Me too, but I like mine the best.”
Franklin slowly looked back at Leo. “Why?”
“Because I would never bet against Admiral Peters, no matter how bad the odds. And right now, I have a feeling that any defensive forces that would be in our way might be a little too distracted by what they have only recently realized the Admiral is doing.”
“We’re still…months out from even hoping to catch up to him at best. And again, that’s assuming he’s succeeded or, at least, hasn’t been caught.”
“Months, sure,” Leo said, “but not as many as it otherwise would be.”
Commander Franklin’s gaze upon Leo grew even more curious. “How is that?”
“Well, our ship no longer has any drones. I figure we jettison all that debris into space, including all equipment that is beyond repair, along with other assets we probably won’t need or be able to properly use with half of a crew. That way we can get more out of the Core. It’ll still take us a while, but shedding all of that should make for a serious boost to our jump ranges.”
“Hypothetically speaking, what if we do find out the Admiral has failed?”
“Then as I see it, we have three options: first, we pick up where he left off, see if we can get it done ourselves. Two, we fuck off to some other star system, far away from the Coalition, find an Earthlike world and…start over. Or three, we skip the starting over part and link up with Edward Higgins. I’m sure we have the data for the star system and planet he’s been colonizing.”
“Option three doesn’t sound so bad,” Franklin said after a heavy sigh, “until you consider that it’s an option we’d choose only because we know Earth, Mars and all of Sol – all of humanity – would be gone.”
“The idea is to make it so that we don’t have to choose it,” Leo replied with a degree of confidence and calm that surprised even himself.
“So I guess we should get to offloading all this shit, eh?” Franklin said, straightening his posture and stretching. “Shame to jettison all of it into the void.”
“A shame indeed,” Leo said, slapping Franklin on the shoulder. “And you’re going to be in charge of it.”
“Wonderful.”
The entire colony had endured what could only be described as a weeks, even months long hangover. It wasn’t one that involved headaches, soreness, or lack of energy. No, it was a hangover filled with, simply, emptiness. It was an all-consuming pit of nothing – not uncomfortable, painful, or, necessarily, depressing. It was just…empty.
Of course, how could anyone expect anything else? Everyone in the colony had experienced the miracle – the sudden awakening of a greater mind within every single person, an unimaginable heightening of senses, the blessing of entirely new senses, everyone’s perception of time being altered to that of how Edward imagined a deity would perceive it. For those magical, heavenly moments during which Edward was gifted the miracle, he knew everything. There had been no greater feeling – could be no greater feeling.
And now he was back to his regular human self, comparatively knowing nothing. It was odd, once knowing seemingly everything, and suddenly not being able to remember what any of it was. In fact, his and everyone else’s memories of experiencing the miracle were oddly vague. He could mostly just remember some semblance of the sensation of the miracle, bits and pieces of his utter awe, but what he saw, what and how he thought, what he sensed, were all things beyond the scope of regular human sensory, outside the realms of how the human mind functioned. As such, upon returning to his normal human mind, it could not adequately describe to itself what it had experienced.
It had been months, and this hangover was so pervasive, the colony had essentially ground to a halt. Only the essential work was getting done, and much of that was being performed by drones. Expansion, exploration – almost everything else had been put on an indefinite hold. Edward expected Ai Chao to order everyone back to work after a few days of recovery – some time to allow everyone to process the experience as best they could – but days became weeks, weeks became months, and still she showed no indication of returning to the demanding but fair colony leader she had once been.
Edward didn’t blame her. He could, after all, temporarily fill in for her if he so chose, yet he felt no motivation to do so. All he wanted was to experience the miracle again – permanently if he could – and if not, find some way to better recollect what he experienced. In the days following the miracle, he had ventured over to the spires, hoping it would trigger something the miracle had locked away in his mind, but now the Caretakers stood motionless in the center of the spires and the spires themselves appeared to have gone entirely dormant. There was no longer a soft hum emanating from them, nor were there any traces of lights running through the many grooves along their enormous surfaces.
One memory that did not, perhaps could not, escape his mind was the descending of the beings. Some colonists still debated what exactly they were, but Edward was beyond certain they were indeed living beings, just not in any way he had ever imagined. They were beings of pure light and energy, non-corporeal, with senses and minds that seemed to defy the very laws of existence. Edward surmised that the way in which he and everyone else in the colony were temporarily able to perceive the world around them – the filaments and layers beyond normal human perception – must’ve been, to some degree, the way these beings perceived things.
What, then, was the purpose of the miracle itself? It seemed to begin before the beings arrived, if only slightly so. Was it a function of the spires, the final result of whatever the Caretakers had been doing since awakening? Did the activation of the miracle thereby call out to the beings, summoning them to New Gaia? Therefore, was the miracle itself merely a coincidental side effect of the true purpose – the summoning of the beings?
Edward pondered these questions endlessly, despite knowing he would likely never get any answers. Not to mention, the questions also deepened the mysteries of New Gaia and the spires as well – mysteries that predated the miracle and the coming of the beings.
Presently Edward was standing outside the main entrance to the colony, staring at the spires in the distance, willing them to come alive again, to summon the beings again. He had done this countless times since the miracle and, of course, nothing ever happened. He spied a rover approaching a couple hundred meters away to his right. Edward could already guess who it was.
Callum Hughes parked the rover in front of Edward a few moments later and pulled himself out.
“I hate to say it, Dr. Higgins,” Callum began, “but I think the spires are dead.”
“I hate to say that I think you’re right.”
“So what use is it to keep staring at them damn near every day like you do?”
Edward pinched the bridge of his nose and sighed. “I don’t know.”
“Chao still keeping to herself?”
“More or less. How long have you been gone, Callum?”
Callum rubbed at his chin. “Day-and-a-half, give or take a couple hours.”
Edward regarded Callum with a skeptical look. “For that long? Doing what?”
“Nothing, really. Just trying to find something to do. Brought a couple drones in the back of the rover with me, pushed out a little further than I have before, slept on the only damn bed in that sorry excuse of a second colony site. You know we could’ve been done with that and well into building a third over a month ago, right?”
“I know.”
The silence stretched for several moments as both Edward and Callum gazed upon the spires. “You know, while I was out there, I saw a species of flying fish in this large, muddy river about ten miles out,” Callum said. Edward could feel Callum’s eyes turn to him, but Edward continue staring straight ahead.
“Yeah?” “Yeah, except unlike the species of flying fish back on Earth, these are huge. They’re about the size of catfish, if you can believe it. Their wingspans are enormous. The river is big and all, but the sheer size of those things makes me think there probably aren’t many of them.”
“Probably.”
Edward heard Callum shuffle in place and turned to see him throw his arms up in exasperation. “Alright Dr. Higgins, don’t you think this has gone on long enough? You and everyone else in the damn colony have been husks for months now. Even Viktor barely comes out of his fucking quarters, and the guy is a botanist! I even brought back some plant life I don’t think we’ve seen to try to get him back to his usual self.”
“That’ll be hard, Callum,” Edward said. “No one is quite sure how to handle the way we’re all feeling, which brings me to a question I’ve been wanting to ask you for a while now.”
“What’s that?”
“Why aren’t you feeling the same as the rest of us?”
“It’s not that I don’t,” Callum answered with a shrug. “I just don’t think it’s as severe as almost everyone else. As for why, how the hell should I know? My best guess is because I experienced something similar to it before, as you should recall, but I’m sure you’ve already guessed that too, haven’t you?”
Edward nodded.
“I’m not the only one trying to get things moving again, either. Dr. Johansson and Juanita Reyes, amongst a few others, are trying to keep themselves busy. Pretty sure they’re feeling about the same as everyone else – they’re just trying to work their way out of it.”
Edward said nothing.
“Come on, Dr. Higgins. I know you out of all people haven’t spent the last months just sitting around and ruminating on things.”
“No, I haven’t,” Edward responded.
“So, what has humanity’s greatest mind been doing to occupy himself all this time? Divining answers from the spires?”
“More like documenting every possibility that has crossed my mind and going as deep as I can into each and every one.”
“Well, those are some things I’d like to hear,” Callum said, folding his arms and leaning against his rover. “Care to share one with me?”
“They’re all similar. In fact, broadly speaking, I think the answers to some of the more obvious questions are pretty apparent – we just don’t have any details or specifics, which means the broad answers aren’t very satisfying.”
“I’d like to be enlightened, even if only a little bit.”
Edward adjusted himself where he stood and peered up at the sky, sighing deeply.
“Okay, well, I think we both agree that New Gaia isn’t exactly a natural planet, right? We agree that it’s artificial?”
“I don’t see how anyone could think otherwise at this point,” Callum said.
“Alright, well as to one major question, I think we met the creators of New Gaia when the miracle occurred. Actually, I’m certain that was them.”
“It’s been months, Dr. Higgins,” Callum said. “I think most people have probably reached that conclusion by now.”
Edward shot Callum a frustrated look.
“That may be, but I wonder how deeply everyone has considered the implications.”
“As deeply as they can, I’m sure,” Callum responded. “But I doubt anyone can go as deep with as much probable accuracy as you.”
“You flatter me,” Edward said, rolling his eyes. “The main thing that gets me – that I can’t stop thinking about – is that whoever and whatever those beings are, they must be unimaginably ancient. I would have a hard time believing that those non-corporeal forms of theirs was their original state. I know life could start and evolve in ways we would never expect, but that? To exist as pure light and energy, where no environment presents any threat or challenge to you – even space itself? No, that has to be something they made themselves into. And if that’s the case, we’re talking about a civilization that must be billions and billions of years old. Think about it: a species that advanced, that ancient – what else has it done throughout the galaxy? How many planets have they made? Hell, how many stars have they made? That level of advancement could mean that they’ve had a hand in shaping our galaxy long before humans existed – maybe long before there was a single lifeform of any sort on Earth.”
Edward realized he was speaking very rapidly now, finally unleashing the torrent of his thoughts he hadn’t much cared to share – not that many people had been in the mood to listen.
“And if they’ve had a hand in shaping our galaxy,” he continued, “how much of our galaxy’s present state is their work, or at least their influence? How much of life in the galaxy is either a direct or indirect result of their actions? We aren’t even newborns compared to them, and neither is the Coalition.”
Edward took a deep breath and exhaled.
“That makes me wonder what they would think about our war with the Coalition – or really what they do think since they trawled through our minds. I know, they probably don’t think anything of it. It’s war between two factions of ants across what is, to them, a very small part of the galaxy. It’s insignificant and not worth their attention. However, something about us is worth their attention, apparently.”
That got more of a reaction out of Callum than anything else Edward had said, as he pushed himself off the rover. “What makes you say that?”
“I assume you sensed them trawl through your mind too, right?”
“Yeah, but I don’t think they learned anything interesting.”
“Well, they did when they trawled mind.”
“Smartest man alive – no surprise there.”
“I have the intellectual capacity of a grain of dust compared to them,” Edward said. “But I could sense this brief spark of curiosity, and I suppose I was only able to sense it because we were temporarily granted some degree of their senses. It was a spark – brief and small, but it was there, and one thing I’ve been wondering is what in my memories could possibly draw even the smallest bit of interest from beings as great as them. It can’t be our biology – that would be as rudimentary as the level of our technology to them. It can’t be anything we’ve discovered or know about our galaxy or the universe – they know so, so much more that we wouldn’t be able to fathom the gap. All of that leads me to believe that the one thing that would draw their curiosity is probably the one thing we know about, but can’t explain at all.”
Edward saw the realization dawn on Callum. “The Fire-Eyed Goddess,” he said.
“Yes. And if she piques their curiosity, even a little bit, I wonder…is that enough for them to put their galaxy-shaping hand on the war after all?”
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2023.03.31 22:10 Fucking_Peristeronic Exploring the Physiological Factors and Physics Behind Jumping and Popping (Jopping): A Scientific Analysis
ABSTRACT
Jumping and popping (henceforth referred to as "jopping") is a popular dance move that has become increasingly popular in recent years, popularized by the South Korean boy group SuperM. It involves the actions of jumping and popping at the same time, creating a snapping effect in the dancer's body. In this paper, we explore the physiological and physical factors involved in jopping, drawing on scientific research in these areas. We examine the role of different muscles in the lower body, the properties of muscle fibres, and the high level of neuromuscular control and timing required for this movement. We also consider the principles of force, momentum, and energy, as well as the role of gravity and the conservation of momentum. By understanding the underlying physiological and physical factors involved in jopping, dancers can improve their technique and safety. This paper provides a comprehensive scientific analysis of jopping, highlighting the complexity and skill required for this impressive dance move.
INTRODUCTION
Jopping is a complex dance movement that requires a combination of explosive power, precise coordination, and neuromuscular control. This movement involves propelling oneself upward with the legs while simultaneously contracting and relaxing the muscles in a rapid sequence to create a popping or snapping effect in the body. The purpose of this paper is to explore the physiological factors and physics behind jopping.
PHYSIOLOGICAL FACTORS
Jopping requires the use of several muscles in the lower body, including the quadriceps, hamstrings, and glutes. The quadriceps, located at the front of the thigh, are responsible for extending the knee joint. The hamstrings, located at the back of the thigh, are responsible for flexing the knee joint and extending the hip joint. The glutes, located in the buttocks, are responsible for extending the hip joint. These muscles are composed of different types of fibres that have different properties. Fast-twitch muscle fibres are responsible for generating explosive power and are used during high-intensity activities such as jumping and popping, in contrast to slow-twitch muscle fibres which are used during relatively low-intensity activities such as walking and standing.
Jopping requires a high level of neuromuscular control and timing. The dancer must coordinate the explosive force of the jump with the rapid muscle contractions of the pop. This requires precise timing of the muscle contractions, which is controlled by the nervous system.
The nervous system consists of the brain, spinal cord, and peripheral nerves. The brain sends signals to the muscles through the spinal cord and peripheral nerves. The muscles then contract in response to these signals. The timing of the muscle contractions is controlled by the proprioceptive system. Proprioception is the sense of the position and movement of the body in space. The proprioceptive system includes receptors in the muscles, tendons, and joints that send signals to the brain about the position and movement of the body.
Jopping also requires sufficient power in the leg muscles to generate enough force for both the jump and the pop. This power is generated through a combination of strength and speed. Strength refers to the amount of force that a muscle can generate, while speed refers to the rate at which the muscle can generate force. Training to improve the strength and power of the leg muscles can help dancers to generate more force for their jumps and pops. Plyometric exercises, such as jump squats and box jumps, can be particularly effective for improving explosive power.
PHYSICS
The physics of jopping can be understood in terms of the principles of force, momentum, and energy. When the dancer jumps, they generate a force that propels their body upward. This force is determined by the mass of the body and the acceleration generated by the leg muscles. At the peak of the jump, the dancer has achieved maximum height and has stored potential energy in their body. This potential energy is then converted to kinetic energy as the dancer begins to descend back to the ground. The amount of kinetic energy generated is determined by the height of the jump and the mass of the body. During the pop, the dancer creates a series of rapid muscle contractions and relaxations, which generates a snapping or popping effect in the body. This effect is created by the sudden release of energy as the muscles relax, which causes a sudden change in momentum in the body.
Gravity also plays a role in jopping. Gravity is the force that pulls objects toward the center of the earth. When the dancer jumps, they must overcome the force of gravity in order to propel themselves upward. When the dancer descends back to the ground, they must manage the force of gravity to land safely.
The physics of jopping also involves the conservation of momentum. Momentum is a measure of the motion of an object and is determined by the mass and velocity of the object. When the dancer jumps, they have a certain amount of momentum. This momentum is conserved as the dancer begins to descend back to the ground. By contracting and relaxing the muscles in a rapid sequence during the pop, the dancer can alter the direction and magnitude of their momentum, which creates the popping or snapping effect in the body.
CONCLUSION
Jopping is a complex dance movement that requires a combination of explosive power, precise coordination, and neuromuscular control. The biological factors involved in jopping include the use of several muscles in the lower body, including the quadriceps, hamstrings, and glutes, as well as the properties of different types of muscle fibers. The physiological factors involved in jopping include the high level of neuromuscular control and timing required, as well as the need for sufficient power in the leg muscles. The physics of jopping involve the principles of force, momentum, and energy, as well as the role of gravity and the conservation of momentum.
Understanding these factors related to jopping can help dancers to improve their technique and safety. Proper training and safety considerations are essential for dancers who wish to perform this movement effectively and safely. With practice and dedication, dancers can master this impressive and exciting dance move.
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2023.03.31 21:16 Dismal-Jellyfish Fed Report: "Despite generally strong conditions, Council members reported stark differences in economic impact between the “haves” and the “have nots.”" "Wealthier parts of their markets are not yet slowed by inflationary pressures, while lower-income households are feeling the squeeze."
| Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/files/CDIAC-meeting-20221117.pdf Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council: The Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council (CDIAC) was established in 2010 by the Board of Governors to provide input to the Board on the economy, lending conditions, and other issues of interest to community depository institutions. Unlike the Federal Advisory Council, CDIAC is not a statutory body, but it performs a parallel function in providing first-hand input to the Board on the economy, lending conditions, and other issues. Members are selected from representatives of banks, thrift institutions, and credit unions serving on local advisory councils at the twelve Federal Reserve Banks. One member of each of the Reserve Bank councils is selected to serve on the CDIAC, which meets twice a year with the Board in Washington. Overall Economic Conditions: How do Council members assess overall economic conditions in their regions? - Council members reported strong economic conditions as measured by spending, though there are concerns that strong inflationary pressures may at some point undermine real spending.
- Council members, particularly in the Fourth District, reported that the return of production and manufacturing from offshore locations is helping the economy with significant investment in manufacturing and capital expenditure.
- Despite generally strong conditions, Council members reported stark differences in economic impact between the “haves” and the “have nots.”
- Wealthier parts of their markets are not yet slowed by inflationary pressures, while lower-income households are feeling the squeeze.
- The possibility of a recession remains a concern, but so far declines in overall spending are not evident.
- Despite being vocal about price increases, consumers are continuing to spend.
Inflation: Are the prices o for products and services rising (or declining) more or less quickly than in the recent past? Are the prices for the products and services Council members purchase rising more or less quickly?: - Council members generally reported that inflationary pressures remain strong, with prices rising rapidly.
- Some Council members reported early signs of inflation softening for some goods in certain sectors.
- Despite rising prices, customers and businesses have not yet pulled back on spending.
- Council members summarized sentiment as a lot of optimism about the economy coupled with much uncertainty about the future because there is an expectation that inflation will have a long tail that has yet to be fully absorbed.
- Drivers of inflation remain mixed.
- Wage inflation is one key driver, particularly in the services sector, with employees expecting higher wages to keep up with inflation. (this is not slowing down presently either! https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/127pdic/inflation_alert_the_feds_preferred_inflation/)
- Firms that want to retain talent in a tight labor market anticipate salary increases of 5-9% next year.
- Council members reported double-digit increases in insurance costs, with some insurers exiting markets along the Gulf Coast.
- Supply chain issues persist and are another significant contributor to inflation, particularly in the manufacturing and goods-producing sectors.
- The drought in the Midwest and the low Mississippi River levels also contributed to a supply chain backup of both agricultural commodities moving downstream to export markets and raw materials moving upstream for manufacturing and agricultural production. (we have talked about this previously: https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/zzh5jx/inflation_alert_from_the_transportation/)
- This had a strong effect in several Districts that are reliant on the upper parts of the river.
- Council members also highlighted lingering effects of supply chain issues— some of which were caused by labor shortages—from the pandemic on construction.
- Some areas are experiencing a shortage of concrete and electric transformers (with one-year wait times).
- The apparent randomness of these shortages is likely contributing to further uncertainty among households and businesses.
- In other cases, Council members noted that some firms have realized that they are able to maintain margins by raising prices.
- Council members reported that auto dealers still have strong pricing power with high prices and little negotiation.
- Most businesses are passing a high percentage of cost increases downstream to consumers, which generally was not the case last year.
- However, Council members have observed early signs of a potential shift in this dynamic. For example, market-dominant retailers such as Walmart and Target are now pushing back on vendors, seeking justification for further price increases.
- The most acute effects of inflation are being felt in rural and lower-income areas, with higher gas and diesel prices squeezing the wallets of consumers and businesses, particularly smaller farm operations and other industries that use diesel-fueled equipment.
- While prices for some commodities (such as aluminum and lumber) have fallen, that softening has often been offset by higher transportation costs.
- Prices for trucking and transportation have declined but remain high—and those higher prices are being passed on to consumers.
- The Council also reported that some consumers and businesses have become more focused on interest rates than inflation, which has resulted in real estate sales and development and capital expenditures being compressed by the higher interest rates.
Housing: How have home prices changed in recent months? Have there been any changes in overall housing activity in Council members’ Districts?: - Strong demand coupled with low inventory have kept home prices stable.
- However, price appreciation has slowed or even declined somewhat in parts of the country.
- Buyer activity has slowed down as mortgage rates have increased.
- Council members reported that the days of frenzied buying are over.
- Buyers are taking more time, and homes are sitting on the market longer.
- However, conditions have not returned to pre-pandemic levels.
- The shortage of available homes continues to constrain the market for buyers.
- Many homeowners sitting on sub-4% mortgage rates are essentially locked into their homes and will be unwilling to sell their home if it means that their next mortgage will be near 7%.
- This shortage has had cascading impacts across markets. Housing remains unaffordable for many low- to moderate income and first-time homebuyers who are now locked into the rental market.
- While multifamily construction has been strong, Council members reported that rental rate increases continue to exceed overall inflation in many markets.
- Housing shortages are also impacting the upper end of the income distribution in some markets. For example, Council members noted that some hospitals are having challenges filling vacancies because of a lack of housing suitable for higherincome health professionals.
- Multifamily construction has been so strong that some Council members reported that municipalities have had to tap the brakes on new developments because municipal infrastructure cannot keep up.
- Meanwhile, single-family construction is slowing as builders finish their existing projects without lining up new ones because profit margins are too narrow or unpredictable to justify new builds.
- Buyers are choosing to purchase larger homes instead of ordering premium finishes and features that in the past have increased profit margins for builders.
- There is some variability by region. In-migration from high-cost-of-living metro areas into rural areas has driven up costs in those rural areas while urban areas see softer prices.
- In a mixed bag, some Districts reported fewer institutional investors and house flippers buying up properties, while others continue to see an influx of investors for multifamily housing based on strong demand (and increases in rental rates.
Labor Markets: How have the labor markets in which Council members operate changed in recent months? In particular, please assess the degree o f job loss or gain (and, in which industries). Please comment on the changes to wages that Council members have observed over the pastyear.: - All Council members reported that increased labor costs and the labor shortage are affecting both their financial institutions and their business customers.
- The labor shortage is a primary concern of bankers and a major driver of inflation. Businesses that are not raising their wages fast enough to retain workers and attract new ones are losing their employees to other firms.
- There was broad consensus that several industries, such as the healthcare and daycare industries, are facing more severe shortages.
- Shortages in these sectors are having broader impacts.
- With fewer options for daycare or eldercare, more prime-age workers are being forced to remain on the sidelines.
- In some parts of the country, daycare now costs nearly $500 a week, which is typically much more than what many young employees with children make.
- The price and availability of daycare will remain a major barrier for labor force participation.
- Even manufacturers with capital and contracts in hand cannot find workers to fulfill the contracts.
- Council members noted that the labor shortage is not transitory and will be a reality for businesses into the longer term.
- The decline in labor force participation has been a long-term demographic trend exacerbated by the pandemic and the transmission path of inflation to wages.
- Council members also noted that employers are still digesting the (1) ability for workers to work remotely and (2) increased participation of younger generations in the workforce that have different views, compared to older generations, of their relationship with work.
- Several Council members noted an increased desire for immigration reform to offset the structural shortage of labor.
- The opioid crisis was also named as a key driver of labor shortages in some areas, and a major causal factor in many geographies with the lowest labor force participation rates.
- Most businesses remain hungry for labor.
- In reaction to these pressures, Council members reported increased investment in equipment to make up for labor shortages across sectors.
- However, Council members also reported the beginning of layoffs in some markets in their region, which is a harbinger of a slowing economy.
Consumer Confidence: Are Council members seeing any signs o fimproved (or declining) consumer confidence? What is the outlookfor consumer credit losses?: - Council members reported a disconnect between consumer behavior and reported confidence.
- While inflation has reduced confidence, consumers are still spending.
- However, increases in spending on services has been hampered by labor shortages in that sector.
- The consumer confidence divide is vast between the “haves” and “have nots”
- For those on the upper end of the income distribution, folks are complaining but still spending.
- There is greater confidence among consumers with higher levels of discretionary income, who, as a result, feel insulated from rising prices.
- Holiday spending, possibly driven by pent-up demand, is expected to remain strong for these consumers. Purchasing activity may not fully reflect consumer pessimism.
- For low- to moderate-income households, rising utility bills and food prices have eaten into both their savings and purchasing power.
- Energy prices are a major concern as we enter winter, and the cost of heating oil is a concern in the Northeast.
- It was estimated that for minimum wage workers, 70% of their money goes to essentials (e.g., food, energy, transportation). Lowerincome households are cutting back on discretionary spending, and in many cases, they are being forced to make difficult choices about which monthly essentials they can afford.
- Council members reported that consumer delinquencies remain minimal but are starting to slowly creep up.
- Most institutions expect losses to increase in 2023.
- Some Council members have observed significant deterioration in the mobile home portfolio and others have observed some weakness in auto loans.
- While delinquencies remain relatively low, lower used-car prices have resulted in losses for repossessed autos.
Deposits: What changes have Council members seen in local deposit markets? Describe these changes by segment (retail, small business, and corporate). What are Council members' expectations with respect to deposit levels?: - Some Council members reported an outflow of deposits on the commercial side, but most Council members have not yet seen a significant decline in their consumer deposit base.
- However, consumer deposits are expected to run off soon, following a strong growth during the pandemic.
- Deposits have been surprisingly sticky even as nonbanks offer higher interest rate CDs and money market accounts to attract deposits.
- Banks have not repriced deposit rates in parallel with the rapid rate hikes of the Federal Reserve, and Council members reported wide variability in the degree that banks have raised deposit rates.
- Marketing, social media, and consumer pressures are expected to contribute to an acceleration of deposit pricing pressures.
- Council members noted that differences in bank deposit rates stem from how institutions managed the excess liquidity gained during the pandemic.
- Banks that more aggressively deployed deposits into investments are now competing for deposits to maintain liquidity, while banks that invested less aggressively are now sitting comfortably at current deposit levels.
- Council members expect deposits to continue running off in the future, partly due to higher rate alternatives but also because of higher levels of spending as a result of inflation.
- Personal savings rates have fallen significantly and are currently below their pre-pandemic levels, though Council members did report an outflow of deposits into treasury bonds and brokerage accounts.
- Businesses are using their cash to pay down their lines of credit that have much higher rates now and are drawing down commercial deposit levels.
Potential FHLB borrowing limitations and Cryptocurrency: - Council members expressed concern about the ability of community institutions to continue to borrow from Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) over the short term.
- Council members discussed current balance sheet trends, where most institutions saw a significant inflow of deposits during the pandemic and invested the funds in safe assets, such as treasuries and agency securities.
- Council members are also concerned about the impact the rate hikes are having on their bond portfolios, and, by extension, the increase in unrealized losses that flow through to tangible capital. Under Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) regulations, banks whose tangible capital becomes negative must receive written permission from their primary federal regulators to roll over or utilize new advances.
- Council members noted that bank capital regulations were updated almost 10 years ago to ensure that bank capital is (1) robust, (2) reflects modern banking and markets, and (3) can withstand stress during adverse economic and financial market conditions.
- Council members discussed the downside of using tangible equity, rather than regulatory capital, as a proxy for a bank’s health because the latter is a much more robust measure of risk.
- The Council requested that the Federal Reserve engage in communications with the FHFA and other banking agencies to avoid the risk of an administrative reduction in the ability to borrow from FHLBs, triggered by an exclusive focus on tangible capital, when an analysis of regulatory capital does not indicate the need to reduce FHLB borrowing.
- Council members reiterated their concern that compliance regulations will adversely affect how banks are lending in their communities, both in terms of product variety and innovation and in lending volumes.
- Council members discussed the continued fight against cybercrime and other scams, noting that the types of fraud are changing as criminals are getting smarter and more strategic.
- Council members feel that these are national issues that are not just affecting community depository institutions and large depositories.
- Council members believe that in addition to the fraud prevention practices they are employing, more should be done at the federal level to educate consumers.
- Council members continued to recommend that efforts be made to help community institutions streamline their due diligence process for shared vendors.
- In addition, the Council recommended further development of federal outreach programs designed to increase customer awareness of fraud and cybercrime.
- Council members reported that there have been many recent news stories related to increases in fraud in Person-To-Person (P2P) payment networks.
- They stressed that the fraud is real, and efforts should be made to mitigate risk and reduce depository institution and consumer losses. Council members noted that changes to Regulation E have been proposed.
- Currently, Regulation E provides protections for consumers for unauthorized transactions. There have been proposals to have the CFPB reinterpret Regulation E to include “fraudulently induced but authorized transactions.”
- This would protect consumers who are tricked into paying fraudsters.
- The payments are then authorized by the consumer, who later has second thoughts and wants to retrieve their funds.
- Expanding Regulation E in this manner would affect all consumer payment platforms, but especially P2P services where a lot of this fraud occurs.
- Increases in Regulation E liability could have a stifling effect on bank and credit union adoption of faster payments, including FedNow, due to the increased expense and lack of provisions for offsetting revenue to cover the risks.
- Financial institutions may slow down implementation, stop adoption, or even abandon existing P2P services. Some proposals suggest shifting liability to the receiving bank in these types of transactions, but that would also have a chilling effect on faster payments adoption.
- Right now, joining one of the faster payments networks in “receive only” mode is considered a safe way to get involved in faster payments, without fear of fraud risk.
- Shifting the liability from consumers to the receiving financial institution makes it less likely that the institution would participate in a faster payments network.
- Council members discussed recent developments in the cryptocurrency markets.
- There is strong interest in making these markets subject to robust regulations equivalent to what exists in the United States for securities and derivatives.
- Council members were agnostic about which agency—the CFTC or SEC—is authorized by Congress to conduct oversight.
TLDRS: There is a TON to take in here but the bullets called out above: - Council members reported stark differences in economic impact between the “haves” and the “have nots.”
- Council members generally reported that inflationary pressures remain strong, with prices rising rapidly.
- Despite rising prices, customers and businesses have not yet pulled back on spending.
- Council members summarized sentiment as a lot of optimism about the economy coupled with much uncertainty about the future because there is an expectation that inflation will have a long tail that has yet to be fully absorbed.
- Wage inflation is one key driver, particularly in the services sector, with employees expecting higher wages to keep up with inflation. (this is not slowing down presently either! https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/127pdic/inflation_alert_the_feds_preferred_inflation/)
- Firms that want to retain talent in a tight labor market anticipate salary increases of 5-9% next year.
- The drought in the Midwest and the low Mississippi River levels also contributed to a supply chain backup of both agricultural commodities moving downstream to export markets and raw materials moving upstream for manufacturing and agricultural production. (we have talked about this previously: https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/zzh5jx/inflation_alert_from_the_transportation/)
- In other cases, Council members noted that some firms have realized that they are able to maintain margins by raising prices.
- Most businesses are passing a high percentage of cost increases downstream to consumers, which generally was not the case last year.
- The most acute effects of inflation are being felt in rural and lower-income areas, with higher gas and diesel prices squeezing the wallets of consumers and businesses, particularly smaller farm operations and other industries that use diesel-fueled equipment.
- Prices for trucking and transportation have declined but remain high—and those higher prices are being passed on to consumers.
- The Council also reported that some consumers and businesses have become more focused on interest rates than inflation, which has resulted in real estate sales and development and capital expenditures being compressed by the higher interest rates.
- Many homeowners sitting on sub-4% mortgage rates are essentially locked into their homes and will be unwilling to sell their home if it means that their next mortgage will be near 7%.
- This shortage has had cascading impacts across markets. Housing remains unaffordable for many low- to moderate income and first-time homebuyers who are now locked into the rental market.
- Multifamily construction has been so strong that some Council members reported that municipalities have had to tap the brakes on new developments because municipal infrastructure cannot keep up.
- Meanwhile, single-family construction is slowing as builders finish their existing projects without lining up new ones because profit margins are too narrow or unpredictable to justify new builds.
- The labor shortage is a primary concern of bankers and a major driver of inflation. Businesses that are not raising their wages fast enough to retain workers and attract new ones are losing their employees to other firms.
- In some parts of the country, daycare now costs nearly $500 a week, which is typically much more than what many young employees with children make.
- The price and availability of daycare will remain a major barrier for labor force participation.
- Even manufacturers with capital and contracts in hand cannot find workers to fulfill the contracts.
- Council members noted that the labor shortage is not transitory and will be a reality for businesses into the longer term.
- The decline in labor force participation has been a long-term demographic trend exacerbated by the pandemic and the transmission path of inflation to wages.
- It was estimated that for minimum wage workers, 70% of their money goes to essentials (e.g., food, energy, transportation). Lower income households are cutting back on discretionary spending, and in many cases, they are being forced to make difficult choices about which monthly essentials they can afford.
- Council members reported that consumer delinquencies remain minimal but are starting to slowly creep up.
- Most institutions expect losses to increase in 2023.
- Some Council members have observed significant deterioration in the mobile home portfolio and others have observed some weakness in auto loans.
- While delinquencies remain relatively low, lower used-car prices have resulted in losses for repossessed autos.
- Banks have not repriced deposit rates in parallel with the rapid rate hikes of the Federal Reserve, and Council members reported wide variability in the degree that banks have raised deposit rates.
- Marketing, social media, and consumer pressures are expected to contribute to an acceleration of deposit pricing pressures.
- Council members expressed concern about the ability of community institutions to continue to borrow from Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) over the short term.
- Council members discussed current balance sheet trends, where most institutions saw a significant inflow of deposits during the pandemic and invested the funds in safe assets, such as treasuries and agency securities.
- Council members are also concerned about the impact the rate hikes are having on their bond portfolios, and, by extension, the increase in unrealized losses that flow through to tangible capital. Under Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) regulations, banks whose tangible capital becomes negative must receive written permission from their primary federal regulators to roll over or utilize new advances.
https://preview.redd.it/wef9xbtdj4ra1.png?width=610&format=png&auto=webp&s=1efced1a9d0e5ddb4987edc9f8cce8e07ef6d6da submitted by Dismal-Jellyfish to Superstonk [link] [comments] |
2023.03.31 18:30 Material_Trainer_ Game-Changing Migration: Fresh Supply Co. Infrastructure Project Shifts from Mastercard's Private Blockchain to Hedera's Groundbreaking Network
| https://preview.redd.it/z5cgjfj9q3ra1.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cdbaeda6c4117f487ba83d7b4b28964ca2f10c7 Fresh Supply Co. (FSCO), the largest user of Mastercard Provenance and partner of Commonwealth Bank, has recently migrated from the private Mastercard blockchain to Hedera Hashgraph for Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization. This transition marks a significant step in digitizing the agrifood value chain, enabling complete transparency and providing financiers with deep, verifiable data. The Traditional Agrifood Value Chain: The agrifood value chain encompasses the entire process of producing, processing, and distributing agricultural products from farm to fork. Traditionally, this value chain has been complex and opaque, making it challenging for financiers to assess credit risk accurately. They have often been limited to balance sheets and profit and loss statements, which do not provide a comprehensive picture of a business's cash flow and overall health. FSCO's Tokenization Solution: FSCO aims to revolutionize the agrifood value chain by tokenizing assets and events throughout the entire process. This includes the transformation of raw materials into finished products, such as cow to beef and milk to cheese, as well as logistics, customs, and order fulfillment. By tokenizing these events and assets, FSCO can track and verify every step of the value chain with full transparency. This comprehensive data enables financiers to analyze and validate the flow of goods and assets into and out of a business, allowing them to substantiate cash flows as a result of those events continuously. Migrating to Hedera Hashgraph: As part of the migration to Hedera, FSCO is moving its entire existing business onto the Hedera network, leveraging both the Hedera Consensus Service (HCS) and Hedera Token Service (HTS). Hedera's fast, secure, and efficient distributed ledger technology provides a robust foundation for FSCO's tokenization initiatives. Benefits of the Transition: 1. Enhanced Transparency: By utilizing Hedera's advanced blockchain technology, FSCO can offer unparalleled transparency in the agrifood value chain, allowing all parties involved to access and verify critical information about the products they handle. - Improved Credit Risk Assessment: With a more transparent and data-driven approach, financiers can make better-informed decisions regarding credit risk, ultimately benefiting the entire agrifood ecosystem.
- Scalability and Efficiency: Hedera's high throughput and low latency provide a scalable and efficient infrastructure for FSCO's tokenization efforts, ensuring smooth and rapid transaction processing.
Fresh Supply Co.'s migration from Mastercard's private blockchain to Hedera Hashgraph signifies a groundbreaking shift in the way the agrifood value chain is managed and financed. Through RWA tokenization, FSCO is paving the way for a more transparent, data-driven, and efficient future in the agrifood industry. As more companies follow suit, the potential benefits of adopting distributed ledger technology in the agrifood sector will become increasingly apparent, fostering greater innovation and collaboration in this critical global market. submitted by Material_Trainer_ to Hedera [link] [comments] |
2023.03.31 15:29 Pretend_Guitar7443 William Hill Football Club-New Opportunities for WEB3.0 Sports Competition
| Sports Competition in WEB3.0 Major Trend UK - March 22, 2023 — https://preview.redd.it/o9y5qejst2ra1.png?width=576&format=png&auto=webp&s=db3176791f15bf07095cc6de8915716768436284 Recently: Warner Bros. Discovery Sports continues to build crypto-related offerings, and it’s incorporating one of its biggest brands for its next experiment. Fans of TNT’s Inside the NBA will be able to answer trivia questions online and on Discord for tokens that in turn can be spent on prizes, both digital and real-world. Web 3.0, blockchain and more decentralized digital systems will fundamentally transform areas of our society and our economy. There could be a much larger transformation on the horizon for the pro sports business driven by blockchain, NFTs and Web 3.0 thinking: a realignment of ownership and control between leagues, owners, players and fans. The pioneers in sports were really like the innovators in Web 1.0, who built products and tools but saw no direct benefit. In Web 2.0, the league drove value creation and distribution, but Web 3.0 usher in a creatoplayer, fan-driven model. A sports competition WEB3.0 profit storm that everyone can participate in is about to set off.William Hill Football Club, registered in the British Virgin Islands, is one of the most influential online sports investment platforms in Europe.The club mainly conducts online football quiz business in the UK, Ireland, Belgium, and Spain, and has gradually opened the registration business in the Asian market. We can often see William Hill Football Club at the CSMF Sports Expo. The club often takes advantage of the opportunity of the exhibition to hold football summits and organize football sector exhibition areas. The club brings together more than 1,000 teams from all over the world, and updates 20-100 international matches every day. Provide entertainment products including event guessing, hedging arbitrage, casino and sports peripherals. William Hill Football Club is a decentralized digital financial protocol ecosystem that supports sports events, competitive games, NFT blind box guessing, Web3.0 sports metaverse applications, etc. The Sharp Alpha hedging model mechanism introduced by the platform has also subverted the traditional Internet football betting concept and gameplay mechanism. With ultra-low threshold, rich commission, privacy security, and rapid settlement, it breaks the geographical barriers and allows all countries and regions in the world to participate in this game. The wealth feast of sports, entertainment and financial management is coming. According to the different reward rates and sales rebates given by each ball lottery platform in each country, the platform can calculate the win, draw, and loser of each game with the greatest benefit. Hedge funds can Get 7%-12% rebates from different institutions. In fact, as long as the capital is guaranteed under the hedging purchase of each game, even in a state of slight loss, positive profits can be achieved. WEBSITE: http://www.williamhillund.com Twitter: u/WilliamHill_000 Contact Info: Name: William Hill Football Club Email: Send Email Organization: William Hill Football Club Website: http://www.williamhillund.com William Hill Football Club-New Opportunities for WEB3.0 Sports Competition (emporiumpost.com) William Hill Football Club-New Opportunities for WEB3.0 Sports Competition (marketsanctum.com) submitted by Pretend_Guitar7443 to Tabpear [link] [comments] |
2023.03.31 12:30 RavalikaMustyala Industrial Connectors Market
Industrial Connectors market size was
valued at $5.3 billion in 2020, and it is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6.9% during 2021-2026. The growth is mainly attributed to the increasing adoption of IoT and automation technologies in industries is set to drive the market growth. Integration of superior connector products in automotive parts such as powertrain, safety and body electronics is set to propel the market growth. Additionally, increasing trend for connected cars and the adoption of connectors in automotive sector is set to propel the market growth. The growing demand for safety systems thus has a direct effect on the demand for industrial connectors, which in turn drives market growth.
Circular connectors are widely used to enable maximum connectivity of the electric or signal transmission in various applications particularly HDMI cables and Electronic peripherals. For instance, total net generation of electricity in United States reached 310,710 thousand MWh on March 2021 with a 1% increase from March 2020 and is expected to elevate in forecast period owing to high electricity demands. This will provide significant growth in the demand of circular connectors to enable maximum connectivity in data streams further propelling its market growth in North American Market.
Report Coverage
The report:
“Industrial Connectors Market Forecast (2021-2026)”, by IndustryARC, covers an in-depth analysis of the following segments of the Industrial Connectors Market.
By Connector Type: Circular, Rectangular, Coaxial, PCB and Others.
By Termination Method: Crimping, Soldering and Others.
By Application: Distributed Control Systems, Human Machine Interface, Manufacturing Execution System, Product Lifecycle Management, Progammable Logic Unit, Remote Terminal Unit and Others.
By Industry Vertical: Semiconductor & Electronics, Automotive, Pharmaceutical, Food & Beverage, Oil & Gas, Chemical, Metal and Mining & Other industries.
By Geography: North America (U.S., Canada and Mexico); South America (Brazil, Argentina, Rest of Americas); Europe (U.K., Germany, Italy, France, Rest of Europe); APAC (China, Japan, South Korea, India, Rest of APAC); RoW (Middle East & Africa)
Key Takeaways
- Europe dominated the Industrial Connectors market in term of revenue in 2020 owing to the presence of major number of players.
- Adoption of advanced technologies such as IoT, automation technologies in industries and stringent regulations to use advanced equipment is poised to propel the market growth.
- Increasing adoption of Industrial Connectors in data centers with growing trend of 5G technology is set to drive the market.
- Designing of miniaturized connectors is the major challenge that hampers the market growth.
Industrial Connector Market Segment Analysis – By Type
PCB Connector held the major market share of 28.8% in 2020. PCB wire to board type of connectors are used in connecting a wire to a printed circuit board (PCB), enabling connectivity between circuits. High adoption of wire-to-board PCB connectors in industries such as aerospace, military, consumer electronics, medical, telecom and data communication application set to drive the demand of PCB connectors in factory automation. They can be tested to automotive levels on shock, vibration and temperature cycling for reliability. They also have high durability and flexibility. This type of connections are used to bring power and signals onto a PCB and they are specifically designed for LED lighting, and others which set to boost the market growth.
Industrial Connector Market Segment Analysis – By Industry Vertical
Semiconductor & Electronics is the fastest growing segment in Industrial Connectors market and estimated to grow at a CAGR of 9.0% during forecast period 2021-2026. In semiconductor and electronics industry, connectors are used in applications such as drives, relays and switches, cable assembly sets, fabrication and packaging, test sockets, printed circuit boards (PCBs) and others. In this industry, all outputs of a circuit rely on the performance of the connectors used. The demand for faster, better and cheaper electronic devices drive all component manufacturers to constantly upgrade their offerings which escalate the demand for connectors. Implementation of automation technology in semiconductor and electronics industry to incorporate progressive levels of factory control software components, automated material handling systems, and real-time process tool control to meet the growing and changing needs of a semiconductors and electronics.
Industrial Connector Market Segment Analysis – By Geography
APAC dominated the Industrial Connectors market in 2020 with a market share of 39.4%, followed by North America and Europe owing to the presence of large number of players. In addition to these, high adoption of automation technologies in industries which drives the market growth. For instance, ABB which is one of the leading company in Europe invests in development of advanced products including connectors for various applications is set to drive the market growth.
Industrial Connector Market Drivers
Increasing adoption of connectors in data centers
With rapid industrial growth towards data centers, industrial connectors are causing high demands in the market. With the help of industrial connectors, companies have been able to improve their Ethernet capabilities, thus improving the data connectivity in their organization. Adoption of Ethernet connectors in data centers provides high speed transmission of massive amounts of data which helps in enhancing work productivity. With the help of such connectors, data centers are able to meet the high end and data heavy applications offering high performance, thus acting as a major driver for the growth of industrial connectors market.
Growing demand for 5G and Government initiatives
The adoption of wireless technologies such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and others coupled with implementation of automation technology in industries have been fueling the connectors market. According to the National Cable and Telecommunications Association, the number of connected devices are anticipated to reach 50.1 billion by the end of 2020. Growing number of connected devices in telecommunication industry is poised to fuel the market growth. Many government initiatives have been implemented in countries such as India, China, and Brazil, in order to improve the network infrastructure. For instance, the Chinese and Indian governments suggested that their countries should actively promote the 5G development plans and launch the technology by the end of 2020. These kind of initiatives are increasing the demand for connectors.
Industrial Connector Market Challenges
Designing and Operation failures
Designing of miniaturized connectors is the major challenged faced by industrial connectors OEMs. Design engineers face problems in balancing the compact designs of connectors along with offering high performance levels. Designing of miniaturized high voltage power connectors without compromising with the durability offered device robustness in the harsh environments is the major issue faced by in industrial connectors’ manufacturers market. Additionally, repeated connector connection and disconnection causes wear and tear issues, thus causing operation failures and this hampers the market growth.
Industrial Connector Market Landscape
Technology launches, Acquisitions, Collaboration, and R&D activities are key strategies adopted by players in the Industrial Connectors market. Industrial Connectors top 10 companies include Molex Incorporated, TE Connectivity, Amphenol Corporation, Aptiv (Delphi Connection Systems), JST Mfg. Co. Ltd., Hirose Electric Co. Ltd., Rosenberger Hochfrequenztechnik GmbH, Harting Technology Group, Foxconn Technology Group, Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd., Japan Aviation Electronics Industry Ltd. and Yazaki Corporation and others.
Acquisitions/Technology Launches
- In March 2020, Amphenol ICC launched ix industrial connectors in collaboration with its technology partners Hirose Electric and Harting Technology Group. With a mechanically strong 10 position connector design and IEC 61076-3-124 compliant, these connectors were designed to meet the next generation industrial Ethernet requirements.
- In February 2020, Binder USA LP had launched eight contact male/female M16-X cable connector named M16-X415 series in order to offer high speed data transmission along with an IP67 rated ingress protection to resist harsh environments.
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