General Update

I've exited TBill and Chill gang for the moment. While I missed the small amount of downward movement the market had since my last update, it did protect my capital until there was something I wanted to buy. That something has happened as the market has tanked all financial stocks. There are finally some reasonable stock price valuations out there! Format of this update will be some macro updates, my current positions, account totals, and then the usual ending thoughts.
For the usual disclaimer, the following is not financial advice and I could be wrong about anything in this post. This is just my thought process for how I am playing my personal investment portfolio.

Macro Thoughts

Steel
USA steel prices have been increasing as of late with the last increase being $CLF raising HRC to $1200 on March 13th (up $560 since the end of November). Due to these constant increases, I considered buying into steel stocks as pricing power was being demonstrated. I decided against doing so for the following reasons:

• The current valuations are higher than the previous steel run. During 2021, we were buying at future P/E multiples of 2 to 4. Future P/E multiples are 4 to 8 for steel stocks as a comparison. Thus one is expecting continued earnings revisions higher to reach the previous valuations this community was buying at when this board was founded.
• The current rally doesn't appear to be "demand driven". Several articles state this despite the higher offers:
  • Europe: https://eurometal.net/hrc-buyers-in-europe-remain-unconvinced-about-latest-push-for-higher-prices/
    • “We do not see an increase in demand from the key consuming industries – automotive and construction,” a distributor in the Benelux area said. “And, in the second quarter, most of the idled [steelmaking] capacities [in the region] will be back online, so the availability of HRC will increase.”
• Building onto the following point, some of this rally just appears to be a combination of lower utilization rates at the mills, lack of stockpiling, and reduced imports as prices declined. These are factors that are hard to keep in play for the long term.
  • https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2429302-us-steel-prices-driven-up-by-multiple-factors
    • "The multitude of issues has raised questions to how long the current rally can last. Much will hinge on how steel mills operate coming out of their outages, and if steelmakers keep their production rates lower than they had been in 2022. Flat steel imports are reported to be coming between June and August, though how much will make it to US shores is yet to be seen."

Basically I'm not convinced that HRC prices will continue upward and don't think steel companies are a great buy value as their stock prices have remain elevated still. In 2021, we were buying stuff like $CLF for $15, $NUE for $70, and $STLD for $60. The macro environment was that we were entering into a hot economy as everything re-opened from COVID. The current macro environment is different with growth slowing and there being a recession risk on the horizon. It just isn't worth to risk / reward to me at these stock prices personally. Plus if one ended up stuck holding these stocks, none of them really pays an attractive dividend should their stock value continue downward.
Banking
The following is a key article on deposit levels from March 8th to March 15th (when the Silicon Valley Bank drama was happening): cnbc.com/2023/03/24/100-billion-pulled-from-banks-but-system-called-sound-and-resilient.html
The headline is about how $100 Billion was removed from the $17.5 Trillion dollar banking system at that time. However, a key point that is buried in the article is that the top 25 largest banks saw an increase of $67 Billion in deposits. This makes sense: those that worried are moving money from smaller institutions to larger ones.
The market is selling out of all financial institutions however. While regional banks have been hit hardest (as they should with the deposit outflow), nothing has actually changed yet for the larger banks. They are still seeing deposit inflows and there isn't any indication of a "bank run" worry for them despite the significant hit to their stock price. Thus I focused on buying a "too big to fail" bank that has an attractive valuation.

Positions

Primary Fidelity Account Positions. The reason for some duplicate listings is if the trade type was \"cash\" or \"margin\". I'm not actually exceeding my non-margin cash balance (thus I'm not being charged interest) as that was just the purchase trade type. It would take a much longer write-up to explain why this happened to work around an intraday buying limit on my account.
IRA Fidelity Account Positions.
$BAC

• 173 sold April 6th 27.5 CSPs for $0.57 credit.
• 4,038 shares for $26.65 average.

My CSP entry is really bad I sold those after the market rallied from FOMC. But I did choose a value I wouldn't mind being assigned at to hold. The shares are a better entry with most of them being added pre-market on Friday. The stock has traditionally traded between a $30 to $35 range. It has around an 8 P/E plus pays a little over a 3% dividend now. The institution is the definition of "too big to fail" as we are talking economic collapse should that happen. I just don't believe bankruptcy is real risk here.
Could it go lower? Certainly. But I'm not playing this with calls so that I can be find holding the position. With its large footprint and strong brand, I feel the stock should eventually recover into the $30s again at some point regardless. If I'm stuck holding, the 3% yield isn't that much worse than TBills so I can be patient if required.
Smaller Financial Stocks: $USB, $FRC, $TFC, and $PACW

• 11 sold $USB April 6th 34 CSPs for $0.80 credit
• 12 sold $TFC April 6th 30 CSPs for $0.59 credit
• 150 $USB shares @ 34.42, 176 $FRC shares @ 12.02, 300 $PACW @ 9.17 shares

This is a smaller risky position to play a regional bank recovery eventually. These positions could be wiped out - but these banks are different then Silicon Valley Bank. These banks will likely never see their recent highs again as trust in regional banks have likely been irreparably harmed - but there is potential long term upside once the panic settles should the weather the storm. These are a pure gamble and thus I've kept the sizing of this quite small.
A note that I did actually have a much larger $FRC position at one point with a $29 cost average but sold that at $30.50 as I didn't want it to go red as it dipped down from $32.5 at that time. This makes up the majority of my Fidelity account gain but was overly risky in hindsight as I initially did underestimate how much this banking confidence crises would spread. Hence the focus to less risky "big banks" after seeing the bullet I dodged there trying to play these regional banks. It is hard to value what they will end up being worth with one good article being: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/banks-cost-accounting-and-wal
$CVS:

• 300 shares for $72.77

This is a JayArlington favorite and I decided to take a position as its valuation has gotten attractive with a 9 forward P/E and over a 3% dividend. His stream often goes over this ticker but there is a recent comment that summarizes things at:

• https://www.reddit.com/Vitards/comments/11z830p/comment/jdev434/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

A different member of this board ( Prometheus145 ) gave a good pros/cons summary a few hours ago that seems to go into more depth:

• https://www.reddit.com/Vitards/comments/120yi93/comment/jdncf27/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

$TSM:

• 100 shares at $92.63

I've liked this stock for some time and once held 2025 65c LEAPs for them at $13.50 cost basis that I sold way too early. I decided to do a small shares position to play the continual AI hype train as this has lagged behind $NVDA in terms of valuation gain. Plus I can see them continuing their impressive revenue growth as said AI hype is indeed leading to more demand for advanced chips that only they can produce. This is just a small position due to valuation no longer being as dirt cheap as it once was however... I really do wish I had held those LEAPs.

2023 Updated YTD Numbers:

Fidelity

• YTD gain of $14,848.
  • Improvement of $12,028 from last time.

Taken from Fidelity Active Trader Pro.
Fidelity (IRA)

• YTD loss of -$6,152.
  • Improvement of $84 from last time.

Taken from Fidelity Active Trader Pro.
IBKR (Interactive Brokers)

• YTD gain of $63,991.41
  • Improvement of $22,365.38 from last time.
  • This was from some light trading as I never put this account into bonds. I ended up draining it to reduce the temptation to trade... but that money is now in my Fidelity account for the bank dip.

The gain amount is the Net Deposits/Withdrawals + the little bit of money interest that was in the account that I couldn't withdraw immediately at the time.
Overall Totals

• YTD Gain of $72,687.41
• 2022 Total Gains: $173,065.52
• 2021 Total Gains: $205,242.19
• ----------------------------------------------
• Gains since trading: $450,995.12

Ending Thoughts

The market is crazy right now as 3 weeks ago we were worried about the Fed continuing to raise rates from a continually hot economy. Right now, a psuedo-recession trade has gone into effect with expectations of massive rate cuts from a crashing economy. (I saw "pseudo" as the market has priced in a recession for commodities + banks but seems to believe such a slowdown won't affect things like tech somehow?). Who knows what the market will expect 3 weeks from now?
I do believe the bank panic is way overdone - especially for the big banks. There just isn't a catalyst I see for a follow through that leads to a crash. I still lean bearish overall - but I don't think the current banking crises is the cause of everything breaking. I'm willing to go long with the banks having priced in a very poor outlook already.
One mistake I have often made in the past is just allowing my overall lean to blind me to buying anything. I didn't hold stocks like $TSM as said bearish lean had me assuming negative outcomes for all stocks. That doesn't seem to be playing out as segments can rally as outlook and news improves even with recession fears continually in play. Unless one expects a complete economic crash, it seems buying into individual segment weakness might work and being stuck with said stocks isn't bad at the lowered valuations said weakness caused anyway.
I'll likely end up rejoining TBill and Chill gang if the bank stocks do rally back to more normal valuation ranges. Essentially play it safe outside of catching drops on tickers I don't believe are fair and have a reasonable upside payout. This would likely be the money that is freed up from the CSPs expiring should bank stocks rally again.
That's all for this relatively small YOLO account update. Feel free to comment to correct me if you disagree with anything I've written as I'm always open to reconsidering my current thinking. Thanks for reading and take care!

Previous YOLO Updates

• Original Post (Primarily $CLF + $MT with money in a few others)
• Update 1 (Moves fully out of $CLF)
• Update 2 (Sells $X calls)
• Update 3 (Start of Massive $STLD and $NUE Gains)
• Update 4 (Moves 100K Into $TX)
• Update 5 ($TX sinking portfolio)
• Update 6 (Reduces $MT and Most Removes $NUE)
• Update 7 (day prior to WSB $TX DD)
• Update 8 (day after WSB $TX DD and new account high)
• Update 9 (Losing $180,000 in a single week of purely positive steel news)
• Update 10 (Start of recovery and comments on irrational market)
• Update 11 (Adding first February 2022 $TX calls and losing faith in $NUE)
• Update 12 (Added $ZIM and sold $STLD)
• Update 13 (More heavily into $ZIM, re-added $CLF + $X)
• Update 14 (More into $ZIM, sold out of $TX @ $46)
• Update 15 (Mostly All-In on $ZIM)
• Update 16 (Sold out of $ZIM)
• Update 17 (Added $STLD for Senate Infrastructure Vote)
• Update 18 (Sold $STLD + $MT and bought steel puts for OPEX)
• Update 19 (Steel puts payoff but lose $200k to $SPY + $AMZN poor decision options)
• Update 20 (Sold $ZIM, Europe HRC situation, sold cash secured puts on $PAYA)
• Update 21 (Light Update While On Vacation)
• Update 22 (Bad short term trades for $40k loss and added $SPY call weeklies)
• Update 23 (Entered heavily in $X right before Evergrande meltdown)
• Update 24 (Reiterated support for $MT which would change the next week)
• Update 25 (Tried to play the bipartisan infrastructure bill passing which failed)
• Update 26 (Went pure cash gang trying to wait for the next play)
• Update 27 (Bought a decent position back into $ZIM)
• Update 28 (Switched to $ZIM CSPs)
• Update 29 (Went into cash looking for next play)
• Update 30 (Went Back into $ZIM and lost money on $TX)
• Update 31 (Went Into Cash)
• Update 32 (Still into cash and avoiding FOMO)
• Update 33 (Bought heavily into $ZIM shares pre-dividend)
• Update 34 (Sold $ZIM plus general winding down thoughts)
• Update 35 (2021 Year End Post)
• Update 36 (2022 Mid-Year Update + $ATVI position)
• Update 37 (Bought $GSL / $DAC and some other positions)
• Update 38 (Lost money on $SPY calls and cemented $ATVI as my play)
• Update 39 (bet $700k on $ATVI and outlined regulatory status as of then)
• Update 40 (sold out of $ATVI as regulation increased + tech job market worries)
• Update 41 (Near end of 2022 update with some losses + why there wouldn't be a "Christmas Rally")
• Update 42 (Went into Treasury Bonds after running out of "luck")
• Update 43 (Bet on Tech Earnings than back to TBill and Chill)

The Met, Philadelphia, PA - Night 1 of 2
SHOW POSTER:
​
by Daniel Danger
OFFICIAL STREAM: goosestreams.com
UNOFFICIAL STREAM: Hippy Hour Hero on Mixlr
FANTASY GOOSE: https://airtable.com/shrNsjqPCNBQoYMaR
GOOSE DEDICATED THIS TOUR TO THE MEMORY OF CHUCK MORRIS, DONATE TO THE FAMILY HERE: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-jenny-thompson-family

SETLIST

Set 1: (9:01-10:16pm ET)

Rockdale (20), Atlas Dogs (7) > Love is a Battlefield* (8), Everything Must Go (10), Old Man's Boat (14), Thatch (14)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Set 2: (10:56-12:04pm ET)

Animal (14), Feel It Now (12), Echo of a Rose† (29), Turned Clouds (13)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Encore: (12:06-12:15pm ET)

Mr. Action (9)

* Pat Benatar † JOTY candidate

PETER-o-METER:

[ ] Accelerating growth on your upper lip
[ ] McLovin’ it
[ ] Space Panther
[ ] Floating on a marshmallow sea
[ ] Serving inflight meals on Air-Dini
[ ] Ted talking
[ ] Flapping them jacks
[ ] Flipping switches
[🦄] Running a Philly Special
[ ] Channeling euro Goose
[ ] Clapping your hands
[ ] Razzle dazzle shoulders
[ ] Beating the keyboards like it’s pots & pans
[ ] Tits = jacked

SHOW INFO and SHENANIGANS

Night #1 of 2
Tickets: Sold Out
Weather: 48°F cloudy w/ 1% chance of meatballs at show time
The Met Information: https://themetphilly.com/event/goose-2/
Doors open at 7PM ET
Check-In (Limited to before show and set break): Covington, KY x2 Gritty’s Sex Dungeon Baltimore Milwaukee Seattle Philly Nola Albany, NY NYC nicu, Philly Bardot in Philly South Philly Pittsfield, MA w/ Snuggly cats Annapolis to The Met Philly from south Jers HOUSTON TX ATL burbs Ann Arbor Glastonbury CT Mother Goose from Dayton MKE San Rafael, CA Rochester, NY Raleigh, NC Buffalo NY Arlington, VA Rochester, NY x4 Syracuse NY x3 Tweekz side toilet @ Met Pittsford Oshkosh, WI Chicago x2 pit @ Met x2 Tri-cities, WA Richmond Va St. Paul, MN South Jersey White Mountains, NH Kill Devil Hills, NC 504 Nashville Tn Pete Side Rochester, MN The Met x2 Worcester, MA Lancaster PA ATL Uxbridge MA PDX Denver, CO Ft Myers Charlotte Lodi, NJ Lakewood, Co Estero, Florida Tampa Fort Worth, TX New Hampshire SSI, GA Austin TX Green Bay, Wi San Jose CA Midlothian, Virginia Seneca,SC Augusta GA the Show London, UK Madison, WI 603 NH Cape Girardeau, Missouri San Antonio, TX Boulder, Colorado Columbus, OH the floor Indianapolis Groton CT Landing, NJ North Plainfield, NJ Mass Pittsburgh Farr west Utah South Bend, Indiana Baltimore weathersfield Vt ELansing At Pigeons Playing Ping Pong Simpsonville, SC Toronto Hudson Valley Alameda, CA Cincinnati Big D Boonton NJ Elizabethtown, KY Bend, OR Bay Village OH Elkhart, IN Sandy Springs Georgia Seattle windy city Appleton, WI sticks of Oklahoma South Burlington, Vermont Memphis, TN ATL