Lifetime cruze sit-in 10' kayak

This could get pretty long so please bare with me. I’m 25, wife 24, and we have a 10 month y/o. We’ve been together for 3 years married for a year 1/2. Back in about 6 months of us dating I cheated.. we broke for some months but overall she gave me another chance and we got back together. Ever since I made those stupid decisions the relationship wasn’t the same which is expected and I accepted to keep working to get us back okay. I asked to marry me after being back together for a few months and she said yes. But I feel like now at this point that I did it more so out of emotions that I “wanted her back” & to show her I was “serious” rather than us genuinely being in love. The first 2 years we’ve been long distance, I was in Cali, she was in Virginia. So we never really got to experience life together or get to deeply know each other, but shortly after marriage she got pregnant with our beautiful daughter. So fast forward I got out of the military and moved to Virginia 10 months ago. It’s been good overall since I been here with my wife and daughter, but we argue/disagree quite a bit. I know that’s normal but every time we do it, it was hard to come up with a resolution. Sometimes we would go 2-3 days before we actually fixed the problem. She’s very sensitive and things that may seem small to me is really big to her. And tbh a lot of those arguments I didn’t see it like that because in the moment I felt like I didn’t do anything wrong. Because I never said or did anything to intentionally hurt her feelings, then after the fact I will look at it more from her side and understand more, but yet it seemed like my side didn’t matter at all. I try my best to be a good husband to her but it seems like I’m always lacking something, not affectionate enough, not properly loving her, or making her feel special. But I be wanting her to feel loved but I guess the love I give is not enough. She say I tend worry about myself more than anything, and honestly I wouldn’t say she’s 100% wrong but it’s because I deal with depression and anxiety really bad so every day it’s a battle to keep my mind in a good healthy spot. Before I moved here, I had a social life meanwhile she was a homebody, now that we’re here together life is totally different. All the things I did before to keep my head above water (gaming, chilling with friends, gym, car enthusiast) I can’t do as often anymore and that takes a toll on me. She don’t really have any hobbies at all and expect me to be there to do something 24/7. But I need space honestly, I’m not as clingy as her so I don’t mind if we do our own things but she do, she don’t do anything by herself. I tell her all the time if she want to go out with friends or get her toes done or anything, she can. I have no problem sitting home with our daughter, but whenever I want to do things I like it’s like it’s a problem. I understand I had to make adjustments and that I have a family now and can’t just worry about me, but these things are more vital to me than what they seem and I don’t think she understands that. Like she always go to be bed before me and sometimes I want to play the game because that’s really the only time I can, but she be wanting me to come lay down and I don’t be sleepy. I do it for the most part cause she want me in there with her so I be there, but then I don’t get to play the game. I honestly do miss going out and hanging with friends, now that I’m here I only been out 1 time because it just seems like a problem so i don’t ask. Its like she depends on me way more than i depend on her, and I try my best to be there for her, but what about when I want to do the things I like? We both work full time so we come home to a house full of chores and our daughter so there’s not much time throughout the day for us, so I get if she wants time for us, I love watching movies and talking to her, when we have the chance we paint together. But there’s not much for us to do together because we have nothing in common. This is the longest relationship I’ve been in, the longest before this was high school for only like a year. So idk sometimes I feel like I’m not on the same level as her because she have had lengthy relationships and she know exactly what she want and sometimes I fail to give it to her. Not because I don’t want to, I just don’t know how. I don’t think I’m as passionate as her, I’m too busy stuck in my fucked up mind. It just seems like we’re both getting tired of arguing and I don’t want to keep hurting her. I kinda feel like we’re holding each other back. Now we have our daughter and I just don’t know what will happen if we get a divorce. I know it’s going to hurt because I do want this to work but I also want to be fully happy in life but I’m restricted from it if I can’t do the hobbies I love. I feel like we’re a team and I don’t want to leave her on her own but it’s no need to keep wasting time if we can’t adapt. Also I’m so scared of how this gone affect me and my daughter relationship. There’s a bunch of holes in this story, sorry I didn’t want to write any more than I already have but will answer questions.

I realize this post is enormous. But I just need to get it all out. I thank you for taking the time to read it and view the pictures in the album link below.
Photo album here.
I'm absolutely lost right now. I know people who have lost close family and friends and I've heard them talk about the grief and sadness, but I've only ever been close with a small handful of people, all of whom are still alive. I have never had any sort of significant loss before, and this past week has been the absolute worst week of my life and I am struggling so much.
10 years ago I adopted a dog from our local shelter. I always said I didn't pick him, he picked me. We were literally made for each other. I named him Remington, but literally always just called him Remi. He was my best friend and I would literally take him everywhere with me unless I absolutely couldn't. He was listed as a husky/shepherd mix, but I think he had some lab or border collie mixed in there too. They said he was about a year old, I'd say he was probably between one and two. But he was such a unique dog, and didn't have an ounce of hate or aggression in him. He wouldn't really bark, he would just sorta howl/chortle. He loved to run, loved to chase things, loved to sunbathe and loved to lay with me and give "head licks"...he would literally just sit there and lick the top of my head. When I first got him, I was in the process of moving out of my parents' house and buying my own. So when moving day came, Remi and I suddenly had this house and yard all to ourselves. It was our bachelor pad, and we had the absolute best times there. I'd come home from work and he'd greet me, anxious to go outside, but he was so excited to see me and give me plenty of kisses beforehand.
The next year I met the woman who would end up becoming my wife. She and her daughter, who was 2, ended up moving in with Remi and I and he loved it. My stepdaughter would sit on his back and they would watch TV together. She was his little friend and would let her do anything she wanted to him. We had several other dogs come into our lives over the next few years, and we eventually ended up moving out to the country about 4 years ago.
Fast forward to 2 years ago, we had a baby. At that time, Remi was probably around 9 or 10. He was starting to get old and grey, starting to slow down more and more, but was still am extremely active dog when he would go outside, or if the other dogs were playing he would jump in. But Remi was usually found just laying on the couch or against a wall somewhere. He liked his rest, but he also loved our new baby girl. She would do the same thing as my stepdaughter used to do...she would lay on him and play with his ears and tail, and he would just lay there and give her kisses. But we began noticing him getting up abruptly sometimes or a low growl periodically, so we would kinda monitor them and not let the baby bother him too much. You could tell Remi loved her, he just needed space sometimes and we tried to make sure we accommodated that. Remi also kinda started getting a little snippy with the other dogs from time to time.
This past Sunday, I had all the dogs (Remi and our 3 year old GSD, along with our 9 year old GSD and her son, a 5 year old GSD) outside for their morning play session before breakfast. The 3 year old is super high strung and I think she accidentally stepped on Remi when she was running by him, as he was just laying by the back door sunning himself. That's literally the moment my life changed forever.
Remi attacked the youngest dog and it wasn't a normal pecking order dog fight, it was a side of him I've never seen in 10 years. He ended up doing some major damage to the younger dog's face which required stitches and staples. The worst part though, was he wouldn't let go. I had to fight him off of her and he bared his teeth at me.
We ended up trying to separate Remi from the rest of the dogs while we did makeshift first aid on the little one (nearest emergency vet is a couple hours away). The worst part about all this is, Remi didn't seem to realize he had done anything wrong. He tore down a baby gate and almost clawd through a door to get back to where the rest of the family was. Like....he just wanted to be with us. It killed me. So I asked my parents if they could keep him overnight until we could get everyone to the vet the next day. Remi loved going to their house and we called it "camp". That's where he would go if we went out of town or something. They would always give him ice cream and take him for drives and he just loved it, so I knew that would be a good temporary solution, but realistically we were weighing our options.
With how suddenly this all happened, I hated to say it but I didn't trust Remi being in the house with the baby. And it was almost impossible to keep him separate at the house because he just flipped out from separation anxiety. We talked to several people we know in the dog community and the general consensus was Remi was in pain...something was going on with him...some sort of underlying reason for him to act this way.
While waiting for my parents to come get him to go to "camp", my wife and I were outside brushing him and noticed a lump on his abdomen we had never noticed before. I would guess that's right in the area the youngest dog stepped as well, right before the fight. Remi was 11, possibly 12 years old, and as soon as I felt that lump...I realized I was likely going to have a decision to make about Remi's life. I held him, I laid on the ground with him and just held him and cried because I knew, realistically, what the next day might hold. My parents came to pick him up and he was so happy....he knew he was going for a ride. He knew he was going to get ice cream.
The next day, my wife took the kids over to see him while I was at work. He had an appointment with the vet that afternoon, so in the meantime they went and spent some time with him. They took a bunch of pictures and videos and sent them all to me. And they got a paint canvas and did Remi's paw prints on it. He looked so happy, but looking back at those pictures...I can see the tiredness in his eyes.
I went home from work and my parents met me at the vet with Remi. We took some pictures and I took him on a little walk outside while we were waiting...but then it was time to go in. I knew...I just knew he wasn't coming back with me. I knew it. My baby girl was there with my parents and I made sure she got to pet him and tell him bye bye before we walked in. She had no idea what was going on but I needed to know she and Remi had that moment.
While talking to the vet we discussed the recent issues. And while examining him, she said Remi definitely was showing some signs of arthritis, but he did act pretty lively for his age...
...but the lump was a "significant" cancerous tumor, about the size of a baseball.
Remi also had occasional seizures, which only started a couple years ago. Maybe one or two a year, if that. It was never anything really concerning because it would only last not even 30 seconds, if that, and he would just kinda be tired for a bit afterward but then back to his normal self. I just chalked it up to old age. But the vet said this all fell in line with a brain tumor. The behavior changes over the last year or so especially, the panting...I just thought he was getting old.
I sat there with Remi and the vet for probably a half hour discussing it. She said Remi was obviously tough, he was very tough...and he was fighting through a lot of pain to not show it to us. I never would have guessed he really had anything wrong. He did it for us. He wanted to stay with us and be a part of our family. He didn't want us to know.
The vet said medical interventions could buy him some time, but ultimately, things were never going to get better. We had reached that point where we were on a downhill slide. I know in my mind it wasn't fair to try to keep him around just for my own comfort.
I cried. I literally held him and just cried. They brought a blanket in and I laid on the floor beside him and just held him and cried. I told him I loved him and how much he meant to me...how thankful I was that I got to enjoy 10 years of my life with him. How much I was going to miss him and that I would never ever forget him. I had to kick the vet out of the room a couple times before I'd let them start the process, because I just needed to be with him, and in that moment I needed him to be with me.
I let them give him the sedative and I just continued to hold him. It was at that moment I realized he knew something was going on, and he was scared. It broke my heart and I'm literally crying just typing this because I could see it in his eyes. He let out a slow whine and I just held him against me and kept telling him I loved him. They vet said it normally took 10 or 15 minutes before they were fairly sedated before the final injection, and gave us that time alone. We laid there for over a half hour before I finally let them give it to him because I just couldn't say goodbye. He was my best friend and I couldn't. I can't. I still can't. It hurts so much every single day. When the vet came in again, I told her we needed to just do it because otherwise I was going to stay there all night with him. He was still somewhat reactive and she said she'd never seen a dog fight it that much. I honestly think Remi knew this was goodbye and he didn't want to let go and it kills me. I held him tight while she gave him the shot and told him I loved him and I was sorry, and I hoped he forgave me.
And then he was gone.
I laid on the floor and held him for another half hour. I covered him up and laid there and just kissed him and cried over him and held him. I smelled him. I held his paws. I did everything I could think of to try to etch a memory of everything about him.
I had him cremated and I got his ashes back yesterday. That made things just slightly better, because he's back home now. But it's still just so hard. Every single day. Every hour. Every minute. Every second. I've barely eaten, barely slept. I cry more than I don't. I didn't know the human body could produce this many tears. My eyes burn from it constantly. I keep expecting him to come walking around the corner. Or when we let the dogs inside, I stand there and wait for him because he was always the last one in, and often had to corralled back in because he loved being outside. Feeding time is so hard...I used to have a little song I would sing every single time when I was putting the food dishes out about whose bowl was next. And now I can't, because Remi's bowl was basically what the whole thing revolved around. I look at the couch and he's not there. I miss his howl.
How long does this last? Does it ever end? My chest hurts so bad every second of every day. I will be doing fine and then just break down and start crying out of nowhere because a memory creeps in. I have found myself accidentally calling our other male dog "Remi". He was such a huge part of my life and he's gone. And it hurts worse than I could have ever imagined. I have zero interest in literally anything right now. Projects, hobbies, etc...nope. All I want to do is look at his pictures and watch videos of him over and over. Functioning is so difficult.
"He's just a dog..."
No he wasn't. He was my friend. He was like a brother. I used to call him Uncle Remi with the baby. He was my closest friend.
And I'm lost without him.

So my TL is Korean, and I noticed that I don’t have issues with sentence structures. It feels very natural to me. The pronunciation for the most part, I would say is a lot better than others on my level (or so I was told by a couple different teachers).
My weakness though, is probably vocab. I hate memorizing words. What I do to battle this is try to learn vocab in context. It definitely means I won’t be sitting there and going through a list of 50 words a day. BUT the words I do learn through context, maybe 10 a day or something, I feel that I learn well. And I’ll know how to use them properly, attach the appropriate particles based on what I’m trying to say, and so on.
I know 4759% that if I try and memorize 50 words from some list, I will not remember them and even if a remember some, I will not use them correctly.
I do think if I hear those words a lot through media, then I’m more likely to remember them if I saw it in a list. Even if I didn’t actually know what that word meant initially.
Some people are REALLY good at memorized a long list of vocab. Seriously. A language exchange partner I used to have spoke English really well. She said she used to learn 50-80 new vocab words a day. And she does have a large vocabulary.
I know that won’t work for me but it does for some.
Anyway, what’s your weakness? And strength? And what have you done to battle that?

I was browsing the popeyes menu the other day and it seems that the special which was 10 pieces of chicken, 2 sides and 5 biscuits is no longer offered. I guess it works out for me; it's hard to finish the sides and the chicken in a sitting, and it can take long enough to get back home from the locations here that the chicken isn't quite as fresh when I get home.
It's annoying that Popeyes doesn't have a 10 piece meal now (in BC anyways), but KFC seems to have a 10 pc with 3 sides for $35, the same price as Popeyes' 8 pc 1 side 4 biscuit meal. Too bad KFC has lousy sides.

A (more detailed than is needed) review of our SNW morning at Universal Studios yesterday.
Never been there before but lots of theme/amusement park experience. Family of 4 (wife, 14 &12 yo daughters). We had SNW early entry.
We got to the park too early (6:30 with an 8am early entry time) due to me not seeing they changed the opening time back 1 hour. That said we were first in line at one of the entry turnstyles which meant we were also sitting at the gates for 45+ minutes. We had flown in from the East Coast the day before so 6:30am felt like 9:30 to us so at least that part was ok.
We were also the very first people into the park that day. We struck up conversation with the guy at our turnstyle and he scanned us in before the park opening countdown so when they hit 0 (they give a spiel & countdown from 10) we were good to go. The turnstiles opened at 7:30 for 8am early entry.
At the park opening we walked at a normal(ish) pace to a hold point a 100 or so yards down the road. Employees stop everyone here, allowing the crowd to clear the entry turnstiles. There were 10/15 people across and we were in the front. People were excited but it was all calm, no pushing and it didn't feel uncomfortable.
Around 7:45 the employees began to walk us back to the lower level entrance. They stayed in front of the whole crowd controlling the pace. Again the crowd was well behaved and not a lot of jockeying for position (at least not at the very front).
The employees paused at the top of the escalator for a few minutes. Then a few minutes before 8am (I think) we started making our way down the escalators. There are two escalators and we were the first people on one of them. The employees walked us to the corner at Transformers and then they peeled off.
At this point some people started to run/jog towards the pipe entrance. We just quickly walked straight to the ride. We're probably the 20th people to the ride entrance. We walked through the queue at a very normal pace to see everything and walk straight to the preshow room. Somehow we ended up the first people lined up at the right hand set of doors, everyone else was lined up in a straight line from the left hand doors (lemmings).
It was about 8:05am at this point and then they announced the ride was down. 🙄 We were in the preshow room for about 10 minutes when they got the ride working. We got off the ride after 8:20am. During the wait I also booked 10am Toadstool cafe reservations.
We purchased a power band from City Walk the night before so now we started to look for the mini games as we walked around the land. We did our first mini game around 8:30. By 8:55 we had done all 4 mini games, found two 8-bit characters and had hit a bunch of the blocks.
At this point the land was full of people but everything was fairly normal.
We wanted to ride again and decided to do single rider, my wife decided she didn't want to ride so she sat outside on a toadstool. We entered the the single rider line at 8:59 and it was basically walk on, albeit we had a couple minute wait as the employee who managed the single rider line was MIA, until we flagged someone down, in the room where you get your headband. By 9:10am the three of us were all on the ride.
At 9:04am my wife texted me "Uh, general admission opened.... I am sitting on the toadstools, mildly afraid for my life...". We walked off the ride into an entirely different world. SNW was just overwhelmed with people. It was nuts.
We did Bowser Jr, then found the upstairs with the binoculars, found the rest of the blocks for coins, hit the restroom & 1-Up and then went to Toadstool Cafe around 9:45.
Toadstool Cafe was ridiculous (not in a good way). We ordered a couple drinks, garlic knots, tomato soup & the cake and spent almost an hour there. We had to talk to employees 5 different times after ordering. Twice to inquire about our food which took 25 minutes to bring out and then three times about silverware as they didn't bring a spoon for the soup, it took another 15 minutes to get a spoon. It wasn't packed either and employees were just standing around. It was the opposite of an efficient, well run restaurant.
Before we left SNW we checked our score and we were in 2nd place for the day, at that point. That felt good to us and we left while throngs of people continued to enter the land. IMO it would not have been enjoyable to arrive at SNW after 9:30 that morning.
Overall it was great. The ride was fun, the mini games were good. I dislike that you need to spend $80.on early entry and another $40 to experience the full land but ¯_(ツ)_/¯. Toadstool Cafe was a mess. Food was ok but it was a bad customer experience and Universal could move a lot more people through the cafe if they had better operations.
If you want to experience SNW the early entry was worth every penny.

I bought this DIAS probably 10 years ago or more (wish I had just gotten a regular RR in retrospect, but I digress...) at that time, I was using it on a pretty standard M4 carbine, 14.5" direct impingement, and I had it tuned to run for this specific gun... I specifically remember having to shave down the sear a little bit and some other minor stuff, but it eventually ran pretty well.
Unfortunately I really haven't used it much at all since then, its just been sitting in a safe collecting dust for 10 years and the gun that I originally tuned it for is gone by now.
But I recently decided I wanted to try running it in my main rifle now, which is a 10.5" piston SBR, with and without a can, and unsurprisingly it didn't quite fit into the receiver the same way, and although I haven't yet fired it, I can tell that the timing is now way too early...
It's obviously pretty difficult to find any sort of youtube videos or guides about how to properly fit and tune these things, but I'm definitely not the only one having these problems. I'm gonna go out on a limb and assume that just about everyone who uses a DIAS has had these problems.
To my fellow DIAS users, where can I go to learn from the mistakes of others to avoid making them myself?

ZZZZZZZZZZZ.....

VOTE

SONGS IN

• 2 + 2 = 5 (The Lukewarm.)
• Sit Down. Stand Up (Snakes & Ladders.)
• Sail to the Moon (Brush the Cobwebs Out of the Sky.)
• Where I End and You Begin (The Sky Is Falling In.)
• There There (The Boney King of Nowhere.)
• Myxomatosis (Judge, Jury & Executioner.)
• A Wolf at the Door (It Girl. Rag Doll.)

SONGS OUT

Rank	Song	Votes Against	Percentage	Runner-up
8	Go to Sleep (Little Man Being Erased.)	20/59	33.9%	30.5% (18/59)
9	A Punchup at a Wedding (No No No No No No No No.)	20/67	29.9%	22.4% (15/67)
10	Scatterbrain (As Dead As Leaves.)	17/54	31.5%	22.2% (12/54)
11	Backdrifts (Honeymoon Is Over.)	15/66	22.7%	2: 18.2% (12/66)
12	I Will (No Man's Land.)	23/58	39.7%	20.7% (12/58)
13	The Gloaming (Softly Open Our Mouths in the Cold.)	30/63	47.6%	19% (12/63)
14	We Suck Young Blood (Your Time is Up.)	24/73	32.9%	31.5% (23/73)

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Hello! I have a 10.5 week old standard poodle puppy and have had her for two weeks. Her crate is in my bedroom and anytime I'm in the room or she can see me in the hallway she can fall asleep in a matter of seconds. I also give her lunch in a frozen kong, and she is content if I just put that in there and leave. She will also walk into her crate voluntarily when I'm about to crate her (but doesn't choose to be in there otherwise). I always make sure she is reasonably tired and has gone potty before I put her in.
The problem is, any time I leave the room and I'm out of sight she won't stop barking. It's not just some whining or a couple barks of frustration, but at least 15 minutes of nonstop panicking. I don't think this is good for her building a positive association with the crate, but I also can't always sit in there while she falls asleep. If I sit in there until she is asleep, I can sometimes sneak away but often she'll hear the floor creak and then wake back up. Right now, I wait until the crazy barking has a short pause, then say 'good quiet' and will sit in the hallway until she sleeps.
In a few months, I'll be moving to an apartment and would really love if she would not bark so much in her crate for the sake of my neighbors. Does anybody have suggestions on how to get her to calm down and sleep when I'm out of sight? Letting her 'cry it out' just doesn't seem to be working and I can't always sit with her.

I think most players who started near launch are finding themselves in the same interesting situation of having tons of credits and battle exp, but nothing to feasibly use them on. Once you get your Synchro Machine to 200, the major limiting factor becomes the 10,000 Core Dust per level. And while upgrading gear takes a decent chunk of credits, you're far more gated by the fodder you have to feed before you come close to running the credit bank dry.
Pre-level 200 it seemed like I could never have enough of either but now I'm in this funny situation where I have more battle exp and credits than I know what to do with. All my treasure boxes for them are just sitting there in my inventory, un-used. It'd be nice if the game could add some new uses for them down the line to keep them relevant. Maybe more academy levels or special outpost structures. The outpost has tons of space left, afterall.

I (16F) made my boyfriend (16M) cry because of my own anger. So I have been studying in a normal private school all my life but I recently moved to a very posh private school for the first time. And I have always dreamed of going to this school. And there was an opportunity to go abroad to an east asian country for a debate, a couple girls from my class enrolled, and it was too costly for my family (it was 2000 USD) so I was denied. I felt extremely upset because I have spent years trying to convince my old school to host this event and I missed this once in a lifetime opportunity which I have been preparing for my entire life.
So I was very angry, and I didn't know where to put my anger out. I tried to just eat it and push it down and I told my boyfriend about this. I texted this to him and he didn't know, and he showed his own schools event which was much more affordable than mine (10 USD). And his school is equally as posh as mine. So I was even more enraged and I told him that he irritated me, and that I was very upset because he didn't ever open up to me emotionally, and it's something I really crave. I don't know why I said this and in retrospect I really feel so dumb for saying that. He responded with him thinking that he I was bored of this relationship and I didn't mean that. By this time my anger subsided and I tried telling him that that wasn't the cause. He said he felt horrible and broken and went to sleep.
I felt even worse and I made a WORD document to help him open up, I didn't want him to feel broken, so I made a list of emotions and how to identify them, along with links to articles helping explain this. I sent him this word doc and a couple of songs and a very long text apologizing. I really felt truly sorry. Because the poor boy never cried in such a long time (in over 2 years) and I tried really hard to make him feel more open and this ruined all of my work and it's just because of my explosive anger.
He texted me and he told me that he cried because of me, but he didn't say it in a way to guilt me, he told me because I told him that crying was healthy prior to this a lot, and he wanted to show his progress. I said sorry again and again to alleviate my own guilt but he told me that he loved me and that he liked it that I was being honest about how I felt, which wasn't true at all. Like they say, you cannot see your reflection in boiling water. I feel so sad, because he truly is such a sweet, kind and innocent guy and I love him to death. He is so sweet and sooo loving and I feel so toxic and horrible for making him cry. I just can't shake this feeling off and I don't know who else to talk to.

These are the horses and races that I will use while seeking my next decent score at Belmont Park on Friday. if the races are not cancelled. As I have mentioned many times, horse racing is a hard game to master but usually because no strategy is developed regarding what tends to repeat itself often, just with different horses from time-to-time and a money management system that helps one save money until they find a race, they are able to take advantage of. My strategy concerning betting has always been "bet a little to win a lot" but refers to taking risks most will not even think of trying. Good Luck to all.
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Race 2: Allowance --- Purse $95,000 --- 3 YOs & Up N/W 1x Or N/W 2 Lifetime --- 6 Furlong Turf:
1)Bold Journey (6-5) won 3rd start back against state bred & O/C foes, so eligibility to race here is still intact. Next out he was overmatched against G1 foes and last start, in this class and condition, he finished 2nd as he and the winner produced their best run together as they were last two away from gate. Now moves from outside post to an inside one and has two decent and useful works since that start.4x4 to Alydar, 5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Raise A Native. He will as a coupled interest to 2) Sousa Summer and will be listed in program as 1 and 1A.
8)Fredo (8-1) broke his maiden 4 starts back while gate to wire at one mile on grass. Connections have been using the right running style but a mile on any surface is probably a little further than his best distance. 7 of his 12 lifetime starts have come at a mile or further on grass or the AWT and he has the race record to prove he struggles going that far. His sprint races have all been lightning fast early and he has been able to get a clear early lead but finds a spot that looks a little lite on early speed. Broodmare sire, Gone West, sired 2 unbeaten champion fillies in France that never raced past 7 furlongs and 2 U.S. champion colts (Came Home & Speightstown) in his career that had front running speed to burn. 5x3 to Storm Bird & Mr. Prospector.
6)Giant's Fire (15-1) broke her maiden 3 starts back while laying close but off the early pace and managed to get up late. Next two starts, jockeys tried to send him early and could not even get close to the early pace and faded to finish last in both. He cuts back to a sprint in here and jockey need to let him settle early and then pick it up as they go around the turn, which is exactly what his dam line and broodmare sire is suggesting he will be better doing. Broodmare sire, Street Cry, sired two of the world's top fillies in Zenyatta & Winx and both were master late runners. 4th dam, Aptostar, is a multiple graded stakes winning filly that blew by several top fields. 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Fappiano. Simply waiting to be ridden correctly and will blow up the exacta when jockey lets him run his race.
9)Carpe's Dream (15-1) is making his first start of the year. Trainer has put 8 works in him in the last two months, the first six were more or less canters around the track but last two works indicates those works was beneficial to him. Likely not ready to beat a few of these but looks like he will have a pace to run at late. 4x4 to Storm Bird.
My Risks $5 Ex Box 1-8, $1 Tri Box 1-8-9, $.30 Super Box 1-6-8-9, $.50 Super Key 8 with 1-6-9 with 1-6-9 with 1-6-9. Total Risk $26.20.
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Race 3: Maiden Special Weight --- Purse $75,000 --- 3 YOs & Up New York Bred --- One Mile:
3) Woodside Warrior (30-1) has started twice and has yet to pick up his feet. However, this is a weak field on NY bred maidens, and he is likely wanting to get to the early lead and has the bloodlines to do so. Trainer is adding blinkers and he has three good works since his last start, most likely all three while wearing the hood (but does not have to be reported as equipment change until race day). He should be fast enough to get the early lead due to his grandsire, Speightstown, and his broodmare sire, Freud, an unraced full brother to Giant's Causeway, progeny also got much braver when they were able to obtain the early lead. 4(C)x5(C)x3(F) to Storm Cat, 4x5 to Mr. Prospector, 5x4 to Seattle Slew, 5x5 to Secretariat.
7) Battleoflexington (6-1) has started twice this year, the first start where he was trailing at the first call and then grind his way to a 4th place finish beaten less than 4 lengths for the win but had received his training in Florida, then shipped to Aqueduct and then asked to run within a 6-day period, a tough task for a seasoned runner much less a maiden. In his second start, he returned in 16 days after his first start with another work, the addition of lasix, and put back on grass, where he did not pick up his feet. Now gets a month to recuperate and adds three more works, two of them useful and is not getting the kitchen sink thrown at him for the first time this year. Will likely respond to the lesser confusion that he has been presented with. 5x4 to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to Halo.
2) Refuah (3-1) broke his maiden two back but was disqualified and placed second for interference. He now has 11 placings in 14 lifetime starts and just does not seem like he was a will to win. He will likely eventually win but it is a waste of time and money trying to predict when. Therefore, I will use him underneath only. 5(C)x4(F)x4(F) to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to Northern Dancer & Halo.
My Risks: $8 Ex Straight 3-7, $3 Tri Straight 3-7 with 3-7 with 2. Total Risk $14.00.
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Race 5: Starter Allowance $50K --- Purse $65,000 --- 3 YOs & Up Which has started for $50K or less and N/W 1x --- One Mile:
5) Ice Road (6-1) has started once this year on the speed favoring dirt track, ran a even race and then change trainers after that start. New trainer gave him two more months off, then put 5 more works in him over a month period in Florida and shipped him to NY where he has not recorded a work in three weeks. Each trainer has his own method of how to get a horse ready and since he wins at 18%, I believe he might have this one better prepared than it appears. He has only two lifetime starts on dirt, a third in the mud in the 2nd leg of Canadian TC and his last start which is decent considering the track he ran on and the brief layoff. Outcross in his first 5 generations.
1)Arrebato (8-1) broke his maiden three starts back in the second start of his career by tracking the early pace, then sent for the lead nearing six furlongs and drawing away in the stretch. Tried the same tactics in his next start on a sloppy track but one that was using same tactics as him got a big jump on him when the front runner stopped and won for fun while this one could not make up any ground and lost second at the wire to the deep closer in the race. Next out, he was tried against 3 YOs stakes company but they proved to be much too tough for him at this point of his career as he finished last. Back to the company where he fits best so far with 4 stamina building works since his last start and a change to a better jockey should help. His sire, Goldencents, won 2 editions of the G1 BC Dirt Mile. Broodmare sire, Badge Of Silver, won his first three lifetime start but was knocked off the derby trail in 2003 when he came out of the La Derby with a leg injury in his first loss but returned to finish 2nd In the Cigar Mile twice & 3rd in the BC Turf Mile. 5x5 to Mr. Prospector.
3) Long Term (5-2) has started three times this year, breaking his maiden in his second start by taking the lead nearing the half mile, then open a clear led into the stretch, then managed to hold 2 late runners safe in the stretch. Next out, he attempted the same strategy, but another beat him to the punch, and he flattened out in the stretch run to finish a well beaten third. Three useful works since his last start and he should be sitting on his best race in his fourth start of the year after a 10-month break. 5x5 to Northern Dancer & Sir Ivor.
7) Thunderian (6-1) was purchased out of a sale in Feb. for $28K by current connections, was gelded and has five starts for him with one win and three thirds. His last start was his only non-placing this year, he drops a level and returns in 9 days. Likely trying to entice someone to claim the horse before he tails off his best form. 4x5 to Northern Dancer.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 1-5, $1 Tri Box 1-3-5, $.30 Super Box 1-3-5-7, $.50 Super Key 1 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7. Total Risk: $26.20.
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Race 6: Allowance O/C $62.5K ---- Purse $100,000 --- 3 YOs & Up N/w $18K 2x or N/W 3 Lifetime or Claiming $62,500 --- 6 Furlongs:
11) High Connection (8-1) is making his first start of the year and his first start for new trainer Pletcher after being removed from Baffert's barn for the 2nd time late last year, likely because owners were expecting much more from a horse with his bloodlines and purchase price. Trainer has put a dozen works in him since he re-entered the work tab with one missed work while preparing others for derby week races and works (likely was missed on chart for due work date). However, trainer moved his next three works to 6-day intervals that should got him back on track. 4x3 to Deputy Minister.
4) High Oak (20-1) looked like he was going to develop into a nice runner but took a hard fall in last year's FOY stakes and is obviously having a hard time (or flashbacks) getting over his tragic fall. But he is showing signs of putting that behind him but needs some help from a jockey to let him run his race and not force him to get too close to the lead early, which was his style before the fall. Believes he gets that help with John V. He has three useful works since his last start and moves back to the surface where both sides of his family have the most success. 4(C)x5(C)x4(F) to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to Secretariat. 4th dam, Leix, is 1/2 sister to Shenanigans and developed her own important line.
1)Cadazero(8-1) was purchased out of an April sale for $60K and makes his first start for new connections. Trainer is known for putting slow works into his trainees preferring to let them go much further than recorded work and follows his usual pattern with this one. However, he has 2 graded stakes wins and has to use the tag because of them but is the class of this field. 4x5 to Mr Prospector & Northern Dancer, 5x5 to Raise A Native.
2)Rotknee (3-1) has started three times this year including winning his last race in a good time, 6 days after registering a bullet work that suggested he was reaching his peak fitness. He has one work since that effort, an easy four furlongs that should set him up for another top effort and personally much prefer to see this type of work than another fast/bullet work which rarely help a horse to maintain his form and can do more harm than good. Only problem with him is he is facing a pretty salty field here and does not show facing a field this tough. 5(C)x4(F)x4(F) to Mr. Prospector.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 4-11, $1 Tri Box 1-4-11, $.30 Super Box 1-2-4-11, $1 Super 11 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4. Total Risk $29.20.
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Race 7: Allowance --- Purse $80,000 --- 3 YOs & Up NY Bred N/W $18K 1x or N/W 2 Races Lifetime --- 7 Furlongs Turf:
8) Athenry (12-1) has one start this year which he sat mid-pack early but was out moved by eventual winner into the stretch and chased that one through the stretch while just holding onto second at the wire. He has two works since that effort, a useful work followed by a 3 furlongs blowout work 4 days before next start, likely to try to get him closer to the early pace. 4x5 to Raise A Native, 5x4 to Mr. Prospector. Also has a Secretariat crossing thru two daughters and plenty of Princequillo crossings thru his daughter, Somethingroyal, dam of Secretariat & his son Prince John (3 crosses in dam line alone).
4) Be Of Courage (8-1) has started twice this year which in first start, he did not pick up his feet to finish last and then in next start when stretched out to a mile, set the early pace until collared at the top of the stretch but continued to show good heart by battling back before being outrun to finish 3rd. Castellano, abroad for his only win to date, retakes the mount as he cuts back to 7 furlongs. One bullet 4 furlongs work since that last effort. 4x5 to Danzig, 4(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Northern Dancer, 5x5 to Mr. Prospector & Blushing Groom.
1)War Terminator (20-1) has one start this year, back in January, which he did not pick up his feet in an open bred O/C race he was probably overmatched in to begin with. Change of trainers since that effort and a move back up North to face NY bred should help. He finished 3rd in his last effort before leaving the area late last year in same class and conditions as this race and a repeat of that effort puts him in the thick of the outcome of this race. Has 5 works for this effort, the first two were leg stretching type works, followed by two good works and an easy work on grass and around the dogs should have him primed and ready. 4(C(x5(C)x5(F) to Northern Dancer, 5x4 to Fappiano.
7) Dr. Settle's Dream (12-1) will be making his first start of the year. he has eight works to prepare from this start, but last two are typical of works trainer usually gives trainees when he thinks they are ready and rarely tips his hand to indicate how fit they are. But he goes back to Alvarado, who has been his main jockey he uses for the last 5-6 years when he believes they are their fittest. He broke his maiden at first asking, then took on open bred stakes runner and finished last after setting the pace for a half mile at one mile on grass. Will likely appreciate the move back to stater bred and gets lasix for the first time. 4x5 to Mr. Prospector, 5(C)x5(C)x4(F) to Northern Dancer.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 4-8, $1 Tri Box 1-4-8, $.30 Super Box 1-4-7-8, $1 Super Key 4 with 1-7-8 with 1-7-8 with 1-7-8. Total Risk $29.20.
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Race 8: New York Stakes(G1) --- Purse $600,000 --- 4 YOs & Up F&M --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
5) Virginia Joy (15-1) has started twice this year, the first effort where she sat far off the pace but put in a good late kick to finish 4th. Next start, she was 3rd for most of the way in a four-horse field but managed to get up for second in an extremely slow-paced race. However, her best races have come when she gets up close to the early pace and makes her best move before others have a chance to and she gets a jockey who will give her that opportunity in here. 3x3 to Sadler's Wells, 4x4 to Kris, 5x5 to Nijinsky II & Mill Reef.
8) With The Moonlight (9-2) has started four times this year, winning her first two starts in grade 2 stakes in the U.A.E, then shipping to the U.S. and finishing 2nd in a G1 stakes and then onto England to run one of the dullest races of her career in a G2. Now back to the U.S. but with a work on grass around the dogs since arriving. Trainer is no stranger to big races and have to believe this one will fire her best effort. 5x5 to Mr. Prospector.
7) War Like Goddess (6-5) has started once this year and beat a G3 field fairly easy but these will be much tougher and cuts back to a distance she has never won at, except her maiden win against non-winners. Still, she is the one to beat but regardless, I will take that chance on beating her at her likely off odds because there are simply too many things that can go wrong, regardless of how good one is. Bet her and you will not make any money that is worth the risk. Bet against her and you will likely lose but there is a possibility to make good money by taking a small risk. 5x5 to Northern Dancer.
1)Flirting Bridge (20-1) has started once this year and won her second condition allowance race. She is bred to at least want a 1/4-mile distance, but this will be only her second start at the distance and in her first start narrowly missed becoming a G1 stakes winner. She has five more works since her first start and they should all be helpful in moving her forward. 4x3 to Danehill, 4x4 to Mr. Prospector, 4(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer.
My Risk: $5 Ex Box 5-8, $1 Tri Box 5-7-8, $.30 Super Box 1-5-7-8, $.50 Super Key 5 with 1-7-8 with 1-7-8 with 1-7-8. Total Risks $26.20.
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Race 9: Acorn Stakes(G1) --- Purse $500,000 --- 3 YO Fillies ---- 1 1/16 Mile:
1)Dorth Vader (10-1) has started 4 times with 1 win in her 2nd start of the year as her only board finish. In her last, she was sent to pressure the early pace and it set the race up for several late runners to make a major impact. But in her third start back which was her only win, she proved her would rather rate behind the early speed and then make her move after they tire each other considerably. Believe she again gets that opportunity as there are at least two in here that looks like they want the early lead at all costs. She has changed trainers since the Ky. Oaks and he decided to give Velasquez a try to relax her as most jockey tried thus far has burnt her out. 5x5 to Storm Bird, 5(C)x5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Mr. Prospector.
8)Accede (8-1) has started twice in her career, breaking her maiden at first asking then in her last start, raced near the rear early and tried to grind her way into contention but it proved futile was front running speed was holding well that day. Trainer has put three more good works in her since that last race and she looks as ready as any in here. Complete outcross in her first 5 generations but is loaded with Teddy & Commando bloodlines.
7)Goodgirl Badhabits (10-1) has started twice and ran away from the competition in both starts but now gets an acid test to see if she is for real. Personally, I think she will pass that test but lose this battle though not likely to fade too bad if she gets over her bad gate habits. She has three good works since her last start which is not really surprising since she has plenty of early speed. The question with her is how well she will handle the pressure she will receive in here. Both her sire, Mastery and broodmare sire, Vindication, were unbeaten in 4 lifetime starts each but both were injured and retired during their 2 YO careers (I let you figure out who trained both). However, this one's 4th dam, Imagining, is also dam of multiple year champion filly, Serena's Song, who also was an excellent producer of solid foals. 5x3 to Seattle Slew, 5x4 to Storm Bird & Weekend Surprise.
4) Occult (12-1) has started twice this year, winning a listed stake race in her first start at 9 furlongs while staying on the favorable part of track that was listed as good and then faltering in her next start on a fast track, also at 9 furlongs. A filly she faced in both these races came back and ran a fast closing second in the Ky Oaks, so you will need to take her speed figures and toss them. She is much faster than those figures suggest but now gets a chance to prove it. Actually, believe she would prefer sitting off the early pace and then making her move turning into the stretch. She has 7 works since her last start with most of them good moves which likely means she is still on the improve. 4x4 to Storm Cat, 5x5 to Halo.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 1-8, $1 Tri Box 1-7-8, $.30 Super Box 1-4-7-8, $1 Super Key 1 with 4-7-8 with 4-7-8 with 4-7-8. Total Risk $29.20.
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Race 10: Belmont Gold Cup S(G2) --- Purse $250,000 --- 4 YOs & Up --- 2 Miles Turf:
Pass.
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Race 11: Intercontinental Stakes(G3) --- Purse $200,000 --- 4 YOs & Up F&M --- 6 Furlongs Turf:
3) Clitheroe (15-1) has started once this year and won a first level condition allowance. She takes a big step up in class, but connections likely thought highly of her to drop north of $800K as a 2 YO purchase. She has two works since her U.S. debut win, a good work at 6 furlongs and a good work at 4 furlongs. She gets to race at the same track for 2 races in a row after switching tracks every start through her first 9 tries. 4(C)x5(C)x4(F) to Nureyev, 5(C)x4(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer.
2) Sarah Harper (6-1) has started 3 times this year and has finished 3rd in two of those starts. However, her current form cycle started back in August of last year and she now has seven starts without a win but a second and 4 thirds. Her last start was her 2nd lifetime start on grass and she ran into a filly named Caravel both times. Caravel upset the boys in the BC Turf Sprint last year at 40-1 in gate to wire fashion. In Sarah Harper's first six starts of her career, she set quarter fractions of 21 4/5 seconds or faster, but those have been missing since she has returned. Why? It seems to me her trainer has been trying to get her to rate and it is not working as plan. Now it's time to go back to the catch me if you can type game. One good work since her last start. Can wire this field with a good break. 4x5 to Danzig.
7) Bubble Rock (5-2) has started twice this year which she finished 2nd in her first start in a first condition allowance, then return in a listed stakes race that is often the springboard race for sprint grass fillies to bigger and better races and won. Has 2 good works on grass around the dogs since that effort and a repeat performance would not be a surprise. 4x5 to Mr. Prospector, 4(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer.
1)Poppy Flower (9-2) has started twice this year with her first start being against O/C foes where she finished 3rd in a five-horse field that was nothing more than an out to help her get fitter, then a listed stakes where she finished second to the likely favorite in here. She has three works since her last start, the first work was a maintenance breeze followed by 2 good works that likely has her ready to give a top effort again. 5(C)x5(C)x 5(F) to Northern Dancer.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 2-3, $1 Tri Box 2-3-7, $.30 Super Box 1-2-3-7, $1 Super Key 2 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7. Total Risk $29.20.
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7th Race Late P5: 1,4 with 5,8 with 1,8 with 2,11 with 1,2. Total Risk $16.00. Total Risk All Bets: $225.40.

If you only have a few minutes, here are some key considerations on valuations:
Valuations matter (of course). Venture is driven by a power law where a very small number of companies return most of the profits, but if the fund relies on the extremely rare $10B+ exits just to return the fund, you might be relying far too much on luck.
An attractive company isn’t necessarily an attractive investment. Know the difference. To achieve venture returns, you will likely have to pass on great companies because the valuation is too high.
But, get into the right companies. Without large exits, you’re unlikely to achieve venture returns. The spread between valuations for “cheap” and “expensive” companies is often much smaller than return multiples from outliers.
Have a clear strategy for valuation. And, stick to it. Routinely overpaying undermines your strategy. It’s OK to make exceptions but be thoughtful and well-reasoned in the decision.

What drives valuations?

Valuations carry information. They tell a story about the company, demand from investors, and often a reflection of the overall market.
Here’s a good breakdown from Semil Shah on what drives valuations:

“A valuation during a funding round for these types of companies are driven by: Investors’ willingness to pay (the most important driver!). Competition among investors hungry to get into a deal. Demand for companies of similar quality, scope, scale, (and) market. A host of other items like team, technology, etc.”

Mahdi @ Exponent on what drives valuations

Exponent is an early-stage fund investing in founders tackling Payments, Infrastructure, Security, App Software.
When setting valuation, some fund managers triangulate several drivers of valuations:

• Company: Team, traction, market opportunity and other company factors
• Market: Entry-valuation comps and other market factors
• Fund model: Entry-valuation ranges/guardrails/fund size/threshold to return the fund

Mahdi also discusses the difference between the attractiveness of a company and the attractiveness of an investment. Not all great companies make great investments.
More from Mahdi:

“On valuations for pre-PMF companies, we triangulate it: Exit opportunity (more intrinsic valuation-ish): We think of it as ‘if everything goes really right (the pre-parade), what could the company reasonably exit at?’. This is meaningfully based off the market opportunity (we are clear to describe it for "known, existing markets" vs. "new, fast growth markets"), competition, etc. That implies a certain amount of revenue, gross margin, and an exit multiple on it. Backing out from there - what should the entry be to achieve a 100x or more outcome for the fund? Next-twelve months (NTM) Comps: Where do we see entry valuations trending next twelve months and is this in line with that? Fund level guardrails: We generally don't believe pre-PMF should be above $15M post (some sectors more, some less). We want the fund average/median to be at or below this; we are open to exceptions, but they have to be crystal clear as to why they are the exception.We increase valuation commensurate with "de-risking" of clear milestones with team, PMF/ velocity/traction, market and exit opportunity. There's also a clear difference for us between the attractiveness of a company vs. the attractiveness of an investment (company + valuation + risk) and the above is focused on the valuation side for pre-PMF teams. We value post-PMF teams more precisely. At the end of the day - the core long-term drivers for all valuations are: Growth of free cash flow (and the drivers for it) Risk of free cash flow. The above helps us to think clearly about both aspects. If this company is humming with $1-1.5M of revenue or another highly implicative traction milestone, where would the Series A be priced at? We typically want the seed vs. Series A delta to be 2.5-3x. Early-stage investors should be compensated for the risk they’re taking and being first advocates.” — Mahdi Raza (Exponent)

Are valuations efficient?

Investors are either price-setters or price-takers for every investment they make. Most commonly, lead investors “set” valuation in negotiation with the founders and follow-on investors invest at that valuation, although this isn’t always the case.
You can’t typically set valuations unless you’re putting in ~50% of the round or more, are the first check-in, or investing off-cycle (i.e. not a part of a formal round). If you’re not setting the valuation, you need to have a point of view on “Is the company worth what the market is saying they’re worth?” This leads us to the question “Is early-stage venture capital efficient?”
While perspectives differ, Abe Othman from AngelList’s Quant Fund has a unique vantage point on this topic:

“One of the most stunning things I've found about early-stage venture capital is that the market is relatively efficient. Put another way, founders convert positive signals about themselves and their companies into higher valuations that capture most (but not all) of the boon from those signals. Venture "alpha", if it exists at all, will really only be in overlooked places: That's why we found that the best schools to invest in are UW, Waterloo, and Brown, not Harvard, MIT, and Stanford. I would say, then, that within like a 2-3x band all valuations are probably "the same" – they don't in fact matter since you're probably paying for an informative signal. Beyond that, valuations are only worth it if the exit could be that much higher, and similarly, companies playing in a smaller space can be equally deserving of investment at lower valuations.” — Abe Othman (AngelList)

Do valuations matter?

Venture managers are responsible for driving venture returns. This is ultimately a function of the investor’s check size, entry valuation, and potentially follow-on investments to maintain or increase ownership. All things being equal, higher valuations cut fund returns. A fund with great companies but very minimal ownership may yield average returns or worse.
Here’s more from the Spearhead blog on how entry prices impact venture fund returns:

“Valuations for pre-traction companies between 2005-2010 were $1-5M pre-money for the first non-friends-and-family round. Funds that invested during this time period made 4x-100x returns. These valuations moved to $4-6M pre-money after 2010, with some demo days in the $8-10M range. This likely cut returns by 2/3 or more. You can’t build a portfolio of pre-traction investments at $8-10M pre-money and expect to make a venture return. On occasion, you can make an exception, but you can’t do all of your investments at this price. You will have to pass on great teams because the valuation is too high. You will have to pass on future iconic technology companies because the price is too high. But passing on a future iconic company at a $40M pre-money gives you the capital to take 10 shots on goal with unknown companies at $4M pre-money.”

Anamitra @ Afore on why valuations matter

Afore invests $500K or $3M checks into pre-everything founders, managing $300M in AUM across three funds.
Venture capital returns are driven by outliers, but it’s impossible to predict the exit value of an investment. Anamitra at Afore talks about the importance of focusing on what you can control: The entry valuation and why it matters.
More from Anamitra:

“If you are an early-stage investor in a company that exits at a $1B or $10B, then you can argue that it doesn't matter whether your entry price was $10M or $50M because you'd do very well. It's obviously better if you could invest at $10M but you'd still 20X if you invested at $50M. This means that if you have high conviction in the outcome, you should not be deterred by small deltas in the entry price. However, most investors don't know how big the outcome could be at the time of initial investment. I'd argue that it might be impossible to know. So, the outcome is unpredictable. However, the investor does have some control over the entry ownership. That's predictable. And since realized returns is a function of outcome size multiplied by exit ownership, the goal should be to maximize entry ownership. You can get high ownership by targeting a low entry valuation, increasing the investment check size, or both. So entry valuation does matter greatly. But it's a balance, because at the end of the day, high ownership in $0 outcome is still $0.” — Anamitra Banerji (Afore)

Julian @ Julian Capital on why valuations matter

Julian Capital is an early-stage fund investing in frontier teach, marketplaces, and B2B SaaS.

“A low valuation won’t get me to invest in a deal, but a high valuation absolutely can get me to walk from a deal.” — Julian Shapiro (Julian Capital)

Approaches to valuations

We collected approaches from fund managers on how they approach valuations. Our goal here was to collect perspectives from a diverse set of funds across fund size and investment focus.

How Rick Yang @ NEA approaches valuations

NEA are investing out of an >$3B VC fund across stages.
The traditional VC model, popular among funds with a concentrated strategy, is optimized around ownership targets. This approach prioritizes ownership, over valuation, although they’re related as funds are finite in size. Rick Yang talks about NEA’s ownership-driven approach to investing.
Note: See more in the “Have a target ownership” section of this post on portfolio construction.
More from Rick:

“I am a believer that fund size and the associated business model driven by that is a big factor in how to think about valuations and deal structures for new prospective company investments. We care more about ownership than valuation for new investments in some sense, although those two things are coupled very closely together. Especially when you normalize historical averages for liquidity and public market valuations, ownership matters a lot when we are considering a new investment. The other part of the ownership equation other than valuation is dollars invested. That becomes a discussion around portfolio construction and the risk/reward with a specific company and space. And of course competition for the round sometimes dictates ultimate valuation, and it's also often why we end up sitting out rounds even if we do really like the team and company. Not the simplest answer, but we like to be thoughtful about structuring initial investments since each NEA Partner isn’t making many new investments per year.” — Rick Yang (NEA)

How Hunter Walk @ Homebrew approaches valuations

Homebrew is an evergreen fund investing primarily in pre-seed, seed and Series A rounds.
Like NEA, Homebrew takes an ownership-driven approach to investing. They view valuation as an important guardrail in evaluating an investment opportunity. Hunter also breaks down their framework for evaluating an investment opportunity when achieving their target ownership exceeds their maximum check size, and the “opportunity cost” of doing so resulting in less diversification.
More from Hunter:

“In our historically concentrated approach to seed stage investing, hitting our ownership target mattered more than valuation but valuation was an incredibly important guardrail in evaluating an opportunity, for it has great impact on the company and our portfolio management overall. We set a ‘max check size’ for our initial investments which was meant to get us, on average, 10-15% ownership and if held to, would overall guide us to an investment period that provided both time and company diversification for the fund. It also drove our reserves strategy. So in any negotiation, whether we wrote our ‘max check’ to get the target ownership was a factor of round size, company stage, and so forth. But we would rarely walk away from an opportunity based on valuation if it fits within that target ownership and check-size box. In situations where targeting the 10-15% ownership would have required a commitment larger than our ‘max check size’ we had to decide whether (a) the opportunity here was worth 1.5 or 2 slots - ie are we going to make one fewer investment out of the fund in order to do this one or (b) would we stick with our check size but take lower ownership as a result or (c) walk away. Of these three, (c) was the most common decision for a variety of reasons that were about being consistent in our strategy and product offering.” — Hunter Walk (Homebrew)

How Nikhil @ Footwork approaches valuations

Footwork is a $175M fund leading rounds at the early stage focused on Seed and Series A.
Another strategy among venture managers is back-solving the valuation from the exit value needed for an investment to return the fund, accounting for maximum check size. Nikhil at Footwork talks about their framework for using this approach. For investors who aren’t setting valuations, the same method can be used to check if the valuation fits with your fund model.
Another important consideration for investors is if the valuation sets the company up for a successful round in the future. The higher the valuation for this round, the higher the valuation hurdle it needs to clear for the next round.
More from Nikhil:

“Valuations do matter to us, to a degree. We have to believe that the valuation makes sense relative to the stage of the business and that the valuation sets the company up for future fundraising success (i.e. the valuation isn't so high that it won't be cleared at the next round). The other calculus that informs our thinking on valuation is how our check size and ownership can lead to a return-the-fund investment for us. What do we have to believe for this single investment to return the fund? Our first fund is $175M, so if we're investing $5M to own 20% of a company, assume that we'll be diluted down to 12% over time, the company has to get to $1.5B or more of exit value for that investment to return the fund. We use this framework and work backwards to the valuation (in the example's case, $25M post-money), check size ($5M), and ownership (20%), that we believe could achieve that goal.” My general principle is that valuation is right when it's mutually disagreeable; that is, both company and venture firm feel a bit uncomfortable about where it lands.” — Nikhil Basu Trivedi (Footwork)

Jonathan Hsu @ Tribe Capital approaches valuations

Tribe capital invests in companies in $1M-$20M of annualized revenue raising at valuations between $30-300M with round sizes in the $5M-50M range.
Venture managers want to ensure that the following round is as low risk as possible. Valuation is one part of that – the higher the entry valuation, the higher the valuation hurdle the company needs to clear for the next round to register a markup. This is an important consideration in the valuation strategy many fund managers take.
More from Jonathan:

“At a high level, I think about valuation in terms of what-needs-to-happen-next round. For example, say you are at X revenue/scale and raising $Y (because you're burning $Z). Then, presumably, if you raise it, once you spend it, you will be at some new scale and will need to raise some new larger amount because of your presumably higher burn. We want to make sure that the following round is as low risk as possible and the current valuation is a part of that equation. More specifically, if you raise at a low valuation now and you exceed your expectations, it will make it much easier to raise the next round. If you raise at a high valuation now and exceed expectations, you may be at a disadvantage in fundraising because the prior round set a precedent that will be hard to match. In some sense, fundraising for startups is like a frog jumping between lily pads until they get big enough that capital sources become more continuous. We want to have a good feel for the size and distance of the next lily pad and your odds of hitting it. Current valuation is a big piece of determining that.” — Jonathan Hsu (Tribe Capital)

How Eric Bahn @ Hustle Fund approaches valuations

Hustle Fund is investing into pre-seed software startups out of its $46M fund.
The majority of entire fund returns tend to come from single or a few "home run" investments. Venture fund managers like Eric keep that in mind while approaching valuations. Central to their approach to valuations is giving each investment the ability to return the fund. They ask themselves: “Can this investment be a 100x return?”
More from Eric:

“We have a simple approach to how we think about valuations: At the post-money valuation that we can invest in a founder's company, do we think that this team can 100x? As a simple example: say we invest in Vedika's company at a $1M post-money valuation, do we think that this founder, in her given market, can get to a $100M exit outcome (IPO, acquisition, etc)? If the answer is YES, then we are excited to invest! And that is somewhat rare. This simple approach to portfolio math works for small, pre-seed funds like ours (sub $50M AUM for the given fund) because it means that even small checks we write have the chance to return the entire fund. I don't think it works with larger AUM funds, where there requires a lot more financial engineering to get to fund returning opportunities, and the expected multiple tends to be a lot lower the more you subsequently invest into your winners.” — Eric Bahn (Hustle Fund)

Why Terrence Rohan @ Otherwise Fund doesn’t focus on valuations

Otherwise Fund is a small, early-stage fund focused on seed and Series A (they don’t lead rounds).
Power law returns dominate venture. Another perspective among venture managers investing in the earlier stage is getting into the right company is more important than getting in at the right valuation. Of course, there are not always mutually exclusive. When they’re in conflict, fund managers like Terrence Rohan first optimize for securing their investment and then for ownership.
More from Terrence:

“My short answer: I do not focus on valuation. I focus on finding the right companies, and then consider allocation or valuation; given this, I will never pass on valuation (early stage). My longer answer: If you look at early-stage venture capital over the past few decades, the power law of returns (i.e., a handful of companies drive the majority of the returns) may be the data's defining pattern. Given this, my primary heuristic is to get into the right company. If you are in the right companies, even with subpar ownership and high valuations, you will have top returns. Once you secure a place on the cap table, I then try to optimize for allocation – but this is a secondary consideration, and will never gate an investment. This logic holds for early-stage companies, and price becomes more important the later stage you go.” — Terrence Rohan (Otherwise Fund)

How Linda Xie @ Scalar thinks about valuations

Scalar is a ~$50M fund focused on investing in pre-seed and seed stage crypto companies (non-lead).
Linda at Scalar believes that passing on a company based on valuation, as long as it falls within a reasonable range, is a missed opportunity. Of course, this has limits as valuations serve as important fund guardrails. She highlights how too high of a valuation at the current round increases the risk of a company raising its next round.
Here’s Paul Graham on the topic:

“Valuation matters far, far less than the decision of whether to invest or not. The spread between bargain and outrageous startup valuations can't be more than 5x, in a world where the best investments can return 1,000x.”

More from Linda:

“We are typically less sensitive to valuations at these early stages. If we have a strong belief in the team and what they’re building, I feel it’s a missed opportunity to pass as long as the valuation is in a reasonable range since we're ultimately aiming for major hits in the long run. There’s only been a handful of pre-seed and seed stage deals I've wanted to do but passed solely due to valuation. A major consideration if the round is priced too high at pre-seed and seed is making sure it’s not too difficult for the founder to raise future rounds so I will mention this to the founder as a consideration and many have taken that into account.” — Linda Xie (Scalar Capital)

How Ryan Hoover @ Weekend Fund approaches valuations

Weekend Fund is a ~$21M fund investing $200-400K checks in pre-seed/seed rounds (non-lead).
The macro climate is outside of any single fund’s control and an investor’s job is to deploy capital over a reasonable amount of time. Managers can influence valuations but the market will have the largest influence on the portfolio outside of significant strategic changes.
More from Ryan:

“Weekend Fund started in 2017. Our first fund's median entry price was ~$7M post-money. Since then, market valuations have climbed. The equivalent companies are raising at 2-3x higher prices. As an investor, we have to ‘play the ball on the court’ (a phrase I believe I first heard from Sarah Tavel at Benchmark) and recognize that credible founders are looking for a fair or favorable deal, and have options. But that doesn't mean we don't care about the valuation. They matter. We focus on meeting founders early and investing at sub-$10M post-money valuations. Every company we back should have the opportunity to return our fund (or more) if they achieve a $1B+ exit. That said, we aren't overly dogmatic and will flex up to participate in promising opportunities. It’s more important that our overall portfolio aligns with our strategy and model. Occasionally founders will award the fund with advisor shares to get us to our ownership target (and effectively lower our entry price). This only works because we have a relatively small fund size to return and if founders value our partnership.” — Ryan Hoover (Weekend Fund)

Advice for fund managers on valuations

We asked experienced fund managers for advice they have for emerging fund managers on approaching valuation.

Have a clear point of view on valuations (and defend it)

“Now matter the approach, it is important for new managers to have a clear point of view on valuations, and be able to defend it. The safest philosophy (i.e. the most accepted by LPs) is to be valuation sensitive and have a concentrated portfolio.” — Terrence Rohan (Otherwise Fund)

Compare your level of conviction to the price the market is setting

“The ‘valuation question’ is one that comes up frequently in our discussions with the emerging managers we back via Screendoor (where we will invest up to 10% of a fund’s target raise and bring them into a community of investors ongoing for these types of questions). While situations can differ, my general rule is that the market determines the price, so you have to kind of decide whether your conviction in a company is equal to, greater, or less than price the market is telling you they are ‘worth.’” — Hunter Walk (Homebrew)

Be disciplined to ensure you can hit a minimum portfolio size

“It’s a power law business so an EM wants to be able to show the quality of their access, picking, and winning. Having hard and fast ceilings on what you’re willing to pay, or trying to over focus on the upper bound of your ownership target too early in your venture lifecycle might make it tougher to prove selection success. So don’t routinely overpay or outbid, especially when you don’t believe in the company as much as the market does, but potential LPs will be more interested in the number of successful investments you picked than your entry price in them. Just maintain enough discipline to ensure you can hit a minimum portfolio size." — Hunter Walk (Homebrew)

Don’t over-engineer your fund model (at least at the early stage)

“We have institutions, family offices, and high net worths as investors across our three funds. Rarely do we field questions that are onerous about our fund's mathematical model. Given that we raise relatively small fund sizes, and that pre-seed is more about an LP's belief in the talent of the GP – I wouldn't worry too much about over-engineering your portfolio model. You should have a model that you follow, and you need to explain it—but pre-seed is too early a category to model for absolute accuracy, in my opinion. Late-Stage funds however have a much higher expectation of portfolio math by LPs, and I think that is warranted.” — Eric Bahn (Hustle Fund)

Valuation negotiations can reveal a lot

“Besides the math of it all, valuation negotiations can tell you a lot about what matters to the founders, the type of relationship they want to have with their investors, and the goals they need to achieve to complete successful next financing.” — Hunter Walk (Homebrew)

Been ape since early 2021 during the sneeze. Upped my initial position by at least 400x!
My original average was way above 40 post split! I already had significant money invested and I can still feel the March flash crash in my bones!
Recently, I took a 30k credit just to be able to buy the dip. For the first time I smashed the low by just cents. I almost doubled my position within a month. To me this not only is life changing money, but also 30k credit is a significant risk. I have been buying every month for the past ~ 26 months for at least 700.
Since I am here for about 30 months, I knew this would happen. I didn't even get excited by the 10% AH initial push. The flashcrash for 25% still hurt. AGAIN.
I did not sell. I have almost all my shares DRSed. There is hundreds of thousand people just like me.
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Love You all!

For some context I (m 23) and my wife (23) have been going through wome rough patches and the topic of divorce came up. I did not want divorce but she seemed dead set on until i auggested counseling we did one session and it felt alright. The counselor asked us "If their was one thing you wanted from each other what would it be?". I answered with the only thing is i wish i could rely on her more than i do now the reason being is my father passed away recently and i inherited some money from him. I chose to use this money to buy a home, pay for our wedding, and a truck for us to have 2 vehicles and to move our belongings into our home in the beginning for months she did not have a job until 9 months ago. While i have had my job for 2 years i pay every bill in the house electricity,gas, water you name it but she only pays for groceries maybe if im lucky. She saves all the money she makes which is fine but she only works 3 days a week for only 5 hours while i work 50+ a week. I feel stressed because i come home and clean the house by myself. I have confronted her and ask her could she please help with some chores around the house on her days off. She complains that i ask her to do to much while she is off otherwise she sits at home and watches tv all day. It makes me upset because we've been together for 10 years married for 2. So my questions after all my rant is simple if i choose to go through with divorce because it has crossed my mind i will not lie. What would i need to do make her get as bare minimum as possible because i payed for everything and i do want to be cheated out of everything. I do also know the state i live in Indiana is a 50/50 but i still want to give her barely anything if possible. Thanks for letting me rant and hearing me out.