Ive got a level 61 chaos, im floor 8 and im pretty sure i can get floor nine right now cuz i just won 6 times in a row, but the servers just went down.However i mostly only play 1v1s with my friendat best i get half as many wins he gets, and he has less hours than me, he just picked up giovanna and still had me going like 3 and 17 in wins.
I do not struggle like this on any floors so far, i am not pressed in multiplayer matchmaking.
characters hes playing are:kysolgiovannaaxl
The game generally goes like so:
game start, his pressure either starts (because his character is faster or has bigger buttons) or hes backing up
I get about two focus shots off before my focus is completely gone (yes im negative edging and reload cancelling), and then he blitzes basically instantly, the gap i use just to focus is enough for him to just rush down, i get hit, and am now stuck in the corner, unable to escape because all of the buttons on all of the characters are either really plus on block, or way too big for me to actually punish. if i do hit him with my zoning, the damage is pathetic and now im down recourses.
ex:giovanna 5s(bigger than my kick, and wayyy faster than my 2s)
Any and all of ky's buttons:(they are all bigger pokes, and bigger combos, none of my buttons are big enough to counter)
at best i find a gap large enough to jump out of in stagger pressure but that usually just ends in some massive fucking air move (like kys big overhead jump)and now im back in pressure
during MY pressure, he just somehow grabs from feet away, hes actually grabbed just raw 5s, 6s and cSIt seems like he can react to every strike throw mix im doing, even though it should NOT be reactable.my block string is usually
5k~6k~236s~H (dash forward)~5k~6k~H (dash forward)
Repeatoccasionally after the 5k 6k i grab. but he can still somehow react most of the time or even grab MEthe best damage i ever get is using the cross up button but thats just2k~2d into reset pressure, occasionally ill get lucky and hell mash and that will lead into a BNB, but if he mashes during the H part of the block string i really cant keep anything up because i cant react to the gunshot before ive already hit 5k. so no confirm
i can never run up and hit cS after the 5k 6k H, because he somehow grabs me literally every time
any time i try to vary my timing a little bit with the gun, i get punished because its kind of hard to frame trap 4 and 5 frame moves by just adjusting the time of my bullet, cuz i have to factor in the time it takes for him to react, then shoot later, it feels like even if i shoot a MILLISECOND later than usual, he hits me with mash. So i cant exactly stagger it.
A lot of the time in neutral if hes playing axl or ky for example, ill go for a curse or a focus shot or even a reload, and im punished by a random poke that travels half the screen(like that big ky sweep that he can do that hits twice, and since it hits twice it completely invalidates my clone)
a lot of the characters he plays have massive multi hit attacks so if he hits my clone it doesnt matter.
he has no respect for any mix i ever try, and when i try to punish the disrespect i still get punished because the gap is so precise to the millisecond that a frame later or a frame earlier i am getting hit or nothing. its FUCKING INFURIATING.
i never try to go for grab on wake up anymore or overhead on wake up anymore because he still somehow, everytime, manages to mash the exact time i go for it, or get a grab the exact time i go for it,
If i go for an over head in a block string its met by on reaction punish. SOMEHOW.
he will always say "the damage you get off of just one combo is insane" but he is absolutely getting the same amount of damage off of any combo he does, especially the pressure because i have NO FUCKING ESCAPE OPTIONS and am just STUCK THERE for like HALF THE GAME, NONE OF MY BUTTONS ARE GOOD COUNTERS BECAUSE MY FASTEST BUTTONS ARE TOO SMALL, AND MY LARGEST BUTTONS ARE TOO SLOW. ITS SO FUCKING ANNOYING.
PLEASE help, I have NO clue what to do anymore. Please dont leave a skill issue comment. I am genuinely asking for help here.

Introduction:
I’m a female in my late-20s who is finally ready to make the big commitment to own a dog! I currently live in a 700sqft apartment, so I’m looking into breeds that are comfortable with that lifestyle! Importantly, I also own a cat!

1. Will this be your first dog? If not, what experience do you have owning/training dogs.

This will be my first dog! I had dogs with my family growing up (golden retriever), and I learned basic training and dog behavior but I have a lot more to learn! A breed that is good for beginners is essential. :)

1. Do you have a preference for rescuing a dog vs. going through a reputable breeder?

I would prefer adoption but would consider buying from a breeder as a last resort.

1. Describe your ideal dog.

Because of my small apartment, my ideal dog would be low-energy the majority of the day and would be satisfied with a daily hour-long walk. I would like an friendly companion who loves to be around me, but retains some independence. I prefer infrequent barking to not annoy neighbors. I spend most of my time at home so a dog who likes to snuggle beside me would be lovely. I love running and am hoping for a companion of short runs but not required.

1. What breeds or types of dogs are you interested in and why?

Greyhounds - I heard they adapt to apartment life due to their low energy levels, and are also infrequent barkers and rarely shed! I would love to welcome a retired racer into my home, but I also know there are many new and scary things for the greyhound, and there may be a difficult adjustment.
I’ve also looked into smaller breeds such as the Pekingese or pugs and would be open to more suggestions!

1. What sorts of things would you like to train your dog to do?

I want to teach obedience such as sit, stay, and come.

1. Do you want to compete with your dog in a sport (e.g. agility, obedience, rally) or use your dog for a form of work (e.g. hunting, herding, livestock guarding)? If so, how much experience do you have with this work/sport?

Nope!
Care Commitments

1. How long do you want to devote to training, playing with, or otherwise interacting with your dog each day?

I want to spend the majority of my day with my dog and integrate him or her into my family!
8) How long can you exercise your dog each day, on average? What sorts of exercise are you planning to give your dog regularly and does that include using a dog park?
I am a fairly active person. I plan for at least two walks a day, 30 minutes each. I live near a dog park and would love to visit !

1. How much regular brushing are you willing to do? Are you open to trimming hair, cleaning ears, or doing other grooming at home? If not, would you be willing to pay a professional to do it regularly?

Ideally, I would prefer a dog that requires lower maintenance to keep grooming costs low.
Personal Preferences

1. What size dog are you looking for?

Any size.

1. How much shedding, barking, and slobber can you handle?

I would like to avoid as much barking and shedding as possible because of my apartment lifestyle.

1. How important is being able to let your dog off-leash in an unfenced area?

Not important.
Dog Personality and Behavior

1. Do you want a snuggly dog or one that prefers some personal space?

Snuggly but also needs time to be alone!
14) Would you prefer a dog that wants to do its own thing or one that’s more eager-to-please?
Eager to please.

1. How would you prefer your dog to respond to someone knocking on the door or entering your yard? How would you prefer your dog to greet strangers or visitors?

Alert, curious, but decently quiet. I would prefer a dog that is friendly or accepting of visitors.

1. Are you willing to manage a dog that is aggressive to other dogs?

I want to avoid this if possible.

1. Are there any other behaviors you can’t deal with or want to avoid?

Human aggression and separation anxiety.
Lifestyle

1. How often and how long will the dog be left alone?

My dog will be alone for a maximum of four hours on weekdays due to work. I also can come home during my lunch break for an hour to relieve the dog.

1. What are the dog-related preferences of other people in the house and what will be their involvement in caring for the dog?

Affectionate, goofy. My BF and I will be sharing responsibility.
20) Do you have other pets or are you planning on having other pets? What breed or type of animal are they?
Cat that is 1yo.
21) Will the dog be interacting with children regularly?
No.
22) Do you rent or plan to rent in the future? If applicable, what breed or weight restrictions are on your current lease?
We are living in an apartment that allows pets but restricts the usual breeds such as Dobermans and lit bulls.
23) What city or country do you live in and are you aware of any laws banning certain breeds?
We live in So Cal with no banned breeds.
24) What is the average temperature of a typical summer and winter day where you live?
Hot in the summers and cool and rainy in the winter.
Thank you so much for your suggestions and input!

While the Bruins are chasing history vis a vis the all time win and point records for a season, both of those records are easier to break in the post-lockout era. When games tied after regulation award three points and still necessitate a winner, it creates more opportunities both for points and for wins.
A way to be fair to older teams, I think, would be to make a adjustment that counts ties as half a win (as the NFL does, and as the points system was originally designed to do) when looking at all-time win comparisons. Using win percentage also helps control for the fact that there weren't always 82 games in a season (although win percentages will be noisier and less impressive when we're only dealing with 50 games or so).
So, without further ado here's what we get when we rank win percentage all-time, but ties count as half a win (and half a loss). Credit to Hockey Reference for the raw data I used.

Year	Team	W	L	WPct.
1930	Boston Bruins	38.5	5.5	0.875
1944	Montreal Canadiens	41.5	8.5	0.830
1977	Montreal Canadiens	66	14	0.825
1978	Montreal Canadiens	64.5	15.5	0.806
1945	Montreal Canadiens	40	10	0.800
1996	Detroit Red Wings	65.5	16.5	0.799
1976	Montreal Canadiens	63.5	16.5	0.794
1971	Boston Bruins	60.5	17.5	0.776
2023	Boston Bruins	58	17	0.773
1939	Boston Bruins	37	11	0.771
1973	Montreal Canadiens	60	18	0.769
1972	Boston Bruins	59.5	18.5	0.763
2019	Tampa Bay Lightning	62	20	0.756
2013	Chicago Blackhawks	36	12	0.750
2013	Pittsburgh Penguins	36	12	0.750
1986	Edmonton Oilers	59.5	20.5	0.744
1984	Edmonton Oilers	59.5	20.5	0.744
1982	New York Islanders	59	21	0.738
1976	Philadelphia Flyers	59	21	0.738
1989	Calgary Flames	58.5	21.5	0.731
1995	Detroit Red Wings	35	13	0.729
1927	Ottawa Senators	32	12	0.727
1979	New York Islanders	58	22	0.725
1980	Philadelphia Flyers	58	22	0.725
1974	Boston Bruins	56.5	21.5	0.724

The 1920 Ottawa Senators (19 wins out of 24) would technically make this leaderboard and be ahead of the 2023 Bruins, but I couldn't include them with a straight face. Hence the caveat on the title
If you just took raw win percentage, the current Bruins' 0.773 would be second behind the '30 Bruins, but counting ties as half a win to help even the playing field brings them to ninth. The Lightning's 62 wins can be beaten (and the Bruins are on pace to do so), but the most the Bruins can get to is 65 wins, which would fall short of the '96 Red Wings and '77 Canadiens with this adjustment. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Bruins a combined 477% chance of winning their last seven games, which would total a 0.765 win percentage for the season, 11th on the list (although, of course, they can't actually win 4.77 games).
If you modify this list so that the post-lockout teams also get credit for a half-win for every game that tied after regulation (instead of either 1 or 0 wins depending on how OT/SO played out), this is an abbreviated version of what it would look like:

Year	Team	W	L	WPct.
pre-LO	11 teams
2023	Boston Bruins	56	17	0.747
pre-LO	16 teams
2006	Detroit Red Wings	58.5	23.5	0.713
pre-LO	8 teams
2019	Tampa Bay Lightning	57.5	24.5	0.701
pre-LO	4 teams
2013	Pittsburgh Penguins	33.5	14.5	0.698
pre-LO	3 teams	33.5	14.5	0.698
2021	Colorado Avalanche	39	17	0.696
pre-LO	6 teams
2013	Chicago Blackhawks	33	15	0.6875
pre-LO	4 teams	55	25	0.6875

The Bruins fall to twelfth and the Lightning to 38th, because we're dampening their OT/SO performances (9-5 and 13-4 respectively) by counting everything 50/50. The '21 Avs and '06 Wings jump onto the list (since they both beat the '13 Hawks, my barrier of entry), as both of them had weak enough records beyond regulation to dilute their win percentage from being on the first list.

Respect The Chief

You're home now. We could finally make an officer of you. You'd have Admiral without much of an argument from anyone.
No offense, sir, but "The Admiral" doesn't have quite the same ring to it.

Master Chief Petty Officer John-117 is the most important figure of the human race in the mid-26th century. Abducted at the age of six by the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI), he was conscripted into the SPARTAN-II program. The initiative was originally designed to crush human rebellion against the Unified Earth Government as the human Insurrection movement neared its tipping point. John endured harsh physical and mental training, survived the physical augmentations required by the program, and was later matched with state-of-the-art Mjolnir battle armor.
Throughout his training and early career, John emerged as a clear leader among the Spartans and was set to lead a successful UNSC campaign to stop a brewing human civil war. Though through circumstance, he became the sole savior of the human race several times over. First, in the face of an alien hegemony called the Covenant--an advanced alien empire bent on the complete destruction of humanity. Later, against an eldritch parasite known as the Flood which toppled both the Ancient Human and Forerunner empires of the past. Most recently, John defended humanity against the efforts of an ancient Forerunner general called the Didact, who returned to take his revenge against humanity for wars fought a hundred millennia in the past.
Notes

• Feats are shown in chronological order in-universe
• Feats showing relevant scaling or context will be indented
• Hover over a feat to see the source.

Height: 6'10" // 7'2" (In armor)
Weight: 130 kg // 451.3 kg (In armor)

General Info (Augmentations / Mjolnir Armor)

Pre-Augmentation / Training
Spartans were heavily trained almost daily since they were kidnapped at the age of 6, leading them to become physically and mentally prime by the young age of 14 even before receiving their augmentations.

Dr. Halsey marveled at what a spectacular physical specimen he had grown into. Fourteen years old and he had the body of an eighteen-year-old Olympic athlete, and a mind the equal of any Naval Academy honors graduate.

Description of an unaugmented 14 year old John; The Fall of Reach Ch 6

Augmentations
Codenamed Project: ASTER, the Spartan candidates were augmented to drastically increase their physiology and physical capabilities. Their bones were laced with powerful material to make them 'virtually unbreakable', their muscle tissue density was increased and lactase recovery time was decreased, they were given hormones to boost skeletal and muscle growth, increased eyesight, and had their nerves altered to drastically increase reaction time.

• At the age of 14, Spartans could sprint at bursts of 55 kph (~34 mph) and had estimated reaction times of 20 milliseconds, though they would likely be significantly higher in combat due to adrenaline. They could lift three times their body weight and they have night vision.

MJOLNIR Armor / Stat boosts

The feats in this RT will sorted by which armor John is wearing, as each iteration of Mjolnir armor increases his abilities further.
Unarmored - These feats occur after John receives his augmentation, but without any Mjolnir armor. They also all happen to occur when he is 14 years old and still recovering from his augmentations.
MJOLNIR Mark IV - The Mk IV was the first iteration of armor given to John and the rest of Spartan II's at the age of 15.

• General description, it doubles it's wearers strength and increases reaction times by a factor of five.
  • Their reaction times were previously given to be a low end of 20 milliseconds, meaning with Mk IV it is at a low end of 5 milliseconds.
• The suit is so reactive and powerful that normal humans would be torn apart trying to use it.
• The suit can operate in vacuum by recycling air for 90 minutes. It is also shielded against radiation and EMP.
• The armor possesses motion sensors and thermal imaging to detect enemy troops.
• The armor is almost immediately given additional prototype upgrades, such as thrusters, surveillance drones, wrist-blades and active camouflage.
  • The active camo allows Spartans to walk right in the middle of a group of soldiers without them noticing.

Neural interface / Onboard Computer
Mjolnir armor is linked to Spartans with a neural interface, which means they simply have to think and the armor would perform an action. Combined with the onboard computer, it allows Spartans to do things such as place Waypoint markers, or targets on their HUDs with a thought.

• An example of its use during a fight, John can move his limbs with a thought to overwhelm attackers.
• The suit 'knows what John is thinking before he does', it's able to control the suit functions and John can control the suits thrusters with his thoughts.
• The onboard computer can predict where artillery shots would land during an artillery barrage, and guide them to safer locations.
• Spartans can share targeting data.
• Mjolnir's onboard computer can place HUD markers at designated targets.
• The onboard computer can calculate probable landing zones for enemy dropships.
• Mjolnir predicting the optimal time to dodge plasma cannon fire from Banshees.

MJOLNIR Mark V - Deployed almost two and a half decades after the previous iteration of MJOLNIR, the Mk V now possessed recharging energy shields but retained the same double strength multiplier as the Mk IV.

• General description, it includes two major improvements being the addition of rechargeable energy shields and the ability to house an AI (See previous Cortana section).
• The suit has sound receivers that can hear a whisper a hundred meters away.
• Energy shields begin regenerating 5 seconds after last being hit and take 4 seconds to fully recharge from a total drain (Gameplay).

Cortana - Cortana is the AI that was paired with Master Chief for Operation: REDFLAG, she is present for the feats that occur while John is wearing MJOLNIR Mk V and most while wearing Mk VI.

• Cortana provides tactical and strategic information to John in the field, is able to infiltrate computer and communication systems and greatly improves John's reaction time.

Hacking

• Cortana was loaded with ONI's best insurgency/hacking software in preparation for Operation: RED FLAG.
• While put to work checking the ssytems of a UNSC warship, Cortana runs through ONIs computesecurity systems on the planet Reach for fun, easily overwhelming other ONI AIs.
• She hacks a Covenant carrier, first from the outside disabling it's weapons and communications systems for a short while, allowing her squad to board it. Then when aboard the ship she develops a path for her ground team, gives false tracking info to the Covenant hunter-killer teams and ultimately vents the ships atmosphere killing most of the thousands of Covenant aboard.
  • Outside of Cortana, the Covenant were generally far above the UNSC in terms of network security, with Dr. Halsey comparing the Covenants understanding of human systems within a few weeks of first contact to the UNSCs understanding of the Covenants after several decades.

MJOLNIR Mark VI - Due to the UNSCs rapid advances in technology, the Mk VI was deployed less than two months after the Mk V rendering it obsolete, containing major improvements in both shielding and stat multipliers.

• The Mk VI increases the wearers strength by a factor of 5, making them 2.5x stronger than in previous Suits. The Suit also has self contained biofoam injectors, pumping Spartans full of the UNSCs miracle drug in case they are ever injured.
  • Biofoam stabilizes most wounds and allows limited combat ability even in the event of limb loss.
  • A Spartan suffering from a gruesome headshot has his wound filled with biofoam and is back in combat within a relatively short time.
• The Mk VI's energy shields are much more powerful and recharge a lot faster.
• Energy shields begin regenerating 4.25 seconds after last being hit, and take 1.75 seconds to fully recharge from a total drain (Gameplay).

MJOLNIR GEN 2 - The second generation of MJOLNIR armor developed after the Human-Covenant war ended. Every aspect of the armor has been improved upon and thrusters are now built into each set of armor, drastically increasing maneuverability.

• Every suit now comes with built in thrusters.
  • Spartans can use their thrusters to effectively fly.
• The armor expects when combat is coming and optimizes it's systems automatically.
• GEN 2 armor has 360 degree vision that sees far into the EM spectrum.
• Magnet Boots - Allows Spartans to fight while walking vertically down the side of a skyscraper sized ship.
• The armor has self repair systems in case the shielding and suit is ever pierced.

Skill

Unarmored

• At the age of 14, John kills/cripples four ODSTs easily. - literature version
• John alongside three other Spartans capture a bunker from guards wearing the Mjolnir Mark I armor, which would have taken 2 to 3 platoons of Marines to capture. - Mjolnir Mark I info/picture.
• Spartans have been trained to fight in zero gravity.
• Spartan IV candidates are trained in several martial arts such as Aikido, Jiu-Jitsu and Krav Maga. Presumably the Spartan IIs are heavily trained with them.

Mk IV

• At the age of 15, John alongside Kelly, Fred and Linda wiped an army of well over 100 Covenant, including several Elite Ultras, Zealots and a Field Marshall.
• John and his Spartans are trained to identify high value targets based off subtle visual cues, making it easy to snipe enemy commanders.
• While defending a planet over the course of a few days, John alongside the rest of Blue team destroyed over 100 Wraith tanks.
• Speedruns through a Covenant carrier alongside Fred and Kelly.
• Both Dr. Halsey and Cortana conclude John is overall the best Spartan.
• He has been awarded every major service medal except the Prisoner of War Medallion.

Mk V

• During Johns testing for the Mk V armor, he faces off against a fighter jet that is so fast it regularly travels in and out of visible range. John tanks it's 50mm autocannons, then deflects and tanks an anti tank missile, afterwards sprinting away at 66 mph though he tears his Achilles tendon doing so.
• While fighting a particularly massive (10 ft+ tall) Sangheilli in low gravity, John uses his skill to beat the Elite even though they were evenly matched in strength.

Mk VI

• John escapes deadly situations so often that he almost believes that death is optional for him.
• He's confident he can wipe out an entire Covenant unit of 50 infantry and 4 Wraith tanks without any heavy weapons, but he chooses to save a group of soldiers instead.
• Merks 40+ Brutes by himself.
• Each Spartan II has 'the equivalent combat power of an entire Sector Fleet'.
• John is proficient in all aspects of infantry tactics, as well as low gravity combat. He is able to effectively lead detachments the size of battalions, and UNSC personnel of all ranks generally defer to his leadership.
  • John was offered to be made an Admiral by the UNSCs Fleet Admiral and head of their Security Council, but he refused.

GEN 2

• Alongside Blue team, John fights through a massive army of Prometheans.
• Spartans are able to punch out the Warden Eternal while evading his sword swings.

Strength

Unarmored

• During John's first time working out while recovering from receiving his augmentations, he notes that 1 G of gravity feels too light and 2 G's feels more normal.
• 14 year old John breaks the bones of ODST's and disfigures them with his strikes.
• At 14 years old, Spartans could not train against normal humans anymore due to repeatedly killing them by accident, so their trainers had to be placed in Mjolnir Mark I armor.
• At the age of 14, John kicks a man wearing a MJOLNIR Mark I exoskeleton eight meters away.
  • Another child Spartan could dent the heavy metal plates of the armor with his punches, the armor is impervious to light weapons.
• At the age of 14, John wrenches and rips a 30 millimeter minigun off a MJOLNIR Mark I exoskeleton with his bare hands.
• Shortly after receiving their augmentations, Spartans could lift three times their body weight.

Mk IV

• The Mk IV doubles it's wearers strength.
• During Johns first test of MJOLNIR he could shatter concrete targets with a punch
• John lifts a Spec Ops Elite overhead and folds him on his own energy sword.
• 15 year old John lifts and throws a cargo sled that was large enough to haul an entire platoon alongside a couple of pieces of artillery, and long enough to hold two Spartans lying end-to-end.
• John buckles the leg of a Special-Forces/Bloodstar Elite sideways with a stomp.
• John beats the arm of a Silent Shadow Elite until it's wrist is snapped sideways.
• Effortlessly punches through a weapons locker that was undamaged by a man bashing it with a large gas canister.
• John can effectively wield 110 kg Gauss cannons and use them for hit and run attacks against a column of 50 Covenant tanks.
• At the age of 16, John is able to withstand 12 metric tons of force on his legs.
• While 16 years old, John gets pinned down by an alien spider-like vehicle that was larger than a Warthog but it doesn't crush him, he is able to partially lift it. He also implies he has pushed Warthogs off of him before.
• Rips a steel and bullet-proof glass security door off of its steel reinforcing on a wall.
• An Insurrectionist general believes John can rip him in half.
• Crushes a Jackal's skull with a kick.
• John, alongside three other Spartans (one of whom was injured and missing an arm) push a 3x3x6 meter quartz monolith, an object that would weigh over 125 metric tons.
• John travels while carrying a half-ton Spartan over his shoulder.
• The Franchise Development Director of Halo, Frank O'Connor, states that Spartans can flip and bench press tanks, which correlates with their in game ability to flip tanks.
  • Halo CE's manual states that flipping vehicles is accomplished by his strength.
  • While flipping tanks is a high end / outlier for Spartans wearing earlier armor, GEN 2 wearing Spartans have been shown flipping tanks with only the shock wave of their strikes.

Mk V

• The Mk V possesses the same 2x strength multiplier as the Mk IV, so he should be able to replicate these feats in the previous Mk IV section.
• Runs through a field of razor wire, snapping them effortlessly.
• While specifically holding back to not kill them, John cripples many ODST's who are trying to kill him. Notably John breaks alot of bones, pulls a gun that is being held by an ODST so hard his shoulder dislocates, and bends the barrel of an assault rifle rendering it useless.
• A trio of Grunts landing on him and attempting to take off his armor is laughable to him.
• Caves in the skull of a Grunt with a pistol-whip.
• A melee attack breaks a Jackals energy shield gauntlet and launches him off of a cliff.
• Flips a Warthog.
• Flips a Warthog again but this time from grabbing it by the bumpers.
• Cracks the spines of a pair of elites with his strikes.
• Punches through a human skull inside a Flood Proto-Gravemind
• Crushes the skull of an elite with a punch and again reiterates he is strong enough to flip Warthogs.
• Crushes the skull of a Grunt with the butt of his assault rifle.
• Spartans are able to punch though tank armor.
  • Wraith armor is completely impervious to .50 caliber AA rounds.
  • Wraiths are durable enough to tank shots from their own mortars, which vaporize titanium battle plate, concrete and flesh within a twenty meter radius.
  • Spartans wearing Mk IV are shown in official artwork to be able to rip open tanks and toss armored Brutes (>1 metric ton) away with one arm.
  • A random Spartan wearing Mk V is able to destroy Covenant tanks in H2H, and several Spartans hold off a Covenant army of 30000.

Mk VI

• The Mk VI increases the wearers strength by a factor of 5, making them 2.5x stronger than in the previous Mk IV and Mk V Suits.
• Punches through the head of a Jackal.
• Tosses a Brute behind him.
  • Armored Brutes weigh over a metric ton.
• John can punch through UNSC ship metal.
• Tanks a melee attack from a Promethean Knight, then punches it off of him.
• John can rip off the arms of Promethean Knights and impale them with it.
  • Promethean Knights are strong enough to toss around Warthogs which weigh 3 metric tons.
• John stabs into the hull of a Lich (Covenant ultra heavy siege platform) while free falling with no leverage.
• John can overcome an Elites energy shielding with a single punch.
• Pushes and kicks a missile hammer several meters. (A 2x3x1.5m block of Titanium which is roughly the dimensions of the missile hammer would weigh over 40 metric tons.)

GEN 2

• Lifting Warthogs (3 metric tons), bending steel and shattering concrete is a baseline feat for all Spartans, not indicative of their limits.
• John shatters a Battle Rifle by hitting Spartan Locke with it.
• Overpowers Spartan Locke.
  • Locke is strong enough to flip over a 42.3 tonne tank with the shock-wave of his attack, effortlessly fly and run through walls as well as tackle aircraft out of the air, and boost through the bulk of a massive stone statue.
• Spartans can snap the necks of Elites.
• Spartans can instantly kill an Elite with a two-handed strike.
• Spartans can rip through Forerunner Armigers.
  • Forerunner Armigers are strong enough to throw humans dozens of meters away.
• Spartans can kill a Forerunner Armiger with a stomp.
• Spartans can punch out the legs of the Warden Eternal.

Durability

Mk IV

• The Mk IV doesn't possess energy shields, it relies entirely on the armor plating for protection.
• The armor has a refractive coating to help disperse incoming energy attacks.
• During Johns first test of MJOLNIR, bullets were harmlessly deflecting off his armor.
• The Mk IV can tank numerous Covenant Carbine shots, though they come close to penetrating the armor. Covenant Carbines fire 8x60mm projectiles at hypersonic (mach 5+) velocities making them far more powerful than almost any modern small arms.
• A .50 caliber depleted uranium round fired from an AA gun glances off John's armor.
  • [Limit] A young Kelly states that sustained fire from that weapon would penetrate the Mk IV.
• Tanks fire from hundreds of skilled marksmen with their rounds only 'dinging' his armor.
• Tanks plasma fire from a Covenant Ghost.
  • Ghost plasma is stated to be 5000 degrees.
• Tanks the nearby detonation of 1 MT nuke (John was at ground zero and had only 30 seconds to sprint away before it detonated).
  • Nukemap stats - Because the event was on a moon with minimal atmosphere and gravity, the heat and radiation figures are much more important.
• Tanks Covenant Needle and Spike rounds that can separate an ODST into pieces.
  • In the same novel it's stated that ODST's wear bullet proof armor that is effective at tanking armor piercing rounds, and someone wearing that armor harmlessly tanks small arms fire from several shooters.
• Tanks several Needle Rifle shots, with the needles shattering off his armor.
• Shrugs off being directly hit by a Hunters 2 ton shield.
• Spartans can tank anything short of a direct hit by a Wraiths plasma mortar, which vaporize everything within a 20 meter radius.
• Tanks Plasma Rifle fire from a hundred Drones who were chasing after him.
• Harmlessly tanks a nearby grenade detonation that spatters his faceplate with shrapnel.
• Spartans in Mark IV have similar durability's to light tanks.
• Covenant Needler shots bounce off his armor.

Mk V

• The Mk V is the first armor to possess energy shields, with each further iteration of armor gaining much more durable energy shields.
• A three round burst from an MA5B assault rifle drops his energy shields a 'hairbreadth'.
• Tanks shots from 30mm chainguns without even noticing he was being hit and without his energy shields breaking.
• Tanks 50mm autocannon fire from a jet without his energy shields breaking.
• Tanks the detonation of a nearby Scorpion missile designed to take out tanks. He was launched six meters and the missile itself created a two meter deep crater, though his energy shields did break.
• Covenant Needler shots bounce off his energy shields.
• Tanks a lifeboat crash that ripped open the craft and mangled everyone else aboard.
• Tanks a shot from a Hunters fuel rod cannon without his energy shields breaking and can tank direct hits even when his shields are low on charge.
• Tanks a melee hit from a Hunter while his shields are already low from tanking a fuel rod shot.
• Tanks an explosion from crashing a Banshee into a wall without any injuries.

Mk VI

• Tanks crashing into the Titanium hull of a warship at an extremely high velocity.
• Unharmed by a nearby Wraith's plasma shot which killed three other soldiers who were further away from it than him.
• Unfazed by a massive explosion.
• Tanks plasma fire from 6 Hunters.
• Tanks the detonation of a point blank plasma grenade that vaporizes a Brute Chieftain and scorches close to a dozen nearby Grunts.
• [Tanks a fall from orbit onto the Earth, and while his armor locks up automatically due to the impact, John himself is uninjured.]( "Halo 3")
  • Official artwork shows John falling from orbit.
• John tanks the laser blasts of 343 Guilty Spark, a Forerunner Monitor.
  • Another Spartan wearing slightly worse armor tanks more Forerunner monitor attacks, which are powerful enough to vaporize Hunters who weigh 5 metric tons and are covered in starship armor.
• Tanks being hit by a Warthog at very high speeds.
• Tanks a fall from orbit onto the planet Requiem completely unharmed, crashing into a lot of debris along the way.
• Tanks a melee attack from a Promethean Knight and punches it off of him afterwards.
  • Promethean Knights are strong enough to knock around Warthogs which weigh 3 metric tons.
• Unharmed after being thrown into a wall extremely hard by the Didact.
• Tanks a slipspace rupture crash that creates a massive crater from his impact (Ghost for scale).
• John had his evolution accelerated by the Forerunner known as the Librarian, giving him an immunity to the Composer which digitizes living creatures.

GEN 2

• Survives getting his head crushed by the Didact, then being thrown into Fred extremely hard.
• Tanks an extremely deep fall without any problem.

Speed

Unarmored

• John notes how objects appear to move in slow motion to him shortly after receiving his augmentations
• Special Forces appear similarly slow to John.
• John could move in blurs and was able to dodge point blank stun rounds from a 30mm cannon.
  • Another child Spartan dodges the stun rounds in mid air.
  • 14 year old Kelly dodges fire from several shooters and is too fast for the self-targeting system to track.
• At the age of 14, Spartans could sprint at bursts of 55 kph (~34 mph) and had estimated reaction times of 20 milliseconds, though they would likely be significantly higher in combat due to adrenaline. This is shortly after they received their augmentations and is expected to increase as their bodies adjust to the changes, and likely as they age as well.
  • Spartans experiencing the world in slow motion due to adrenaline is something they refer to as 'Spartan time'.
• [Limit] John is unable to completely dodge close range fire from three shooters, getting hit by three bullets.

Mk IV

• The Mk IV increases it's wearers reaction times by a factor of five. Their reaction times were previously given to be a low end of 20 milliseconds, meaning with Mk IV it is at a low end of 5 milliseconds.
• The first thing John does in MJOLNIR is move his arm almost FTE to his already augmented self.
• During Johns first test of MJOLNIR at the age of 14 he was fast enough to dodge bullets.
• Evades fire from hundreds of skilled marksmen while he was in a low gravity environment that limited his maneuverability.
• Moves to block a Needle Rifle shot after it was fired.
• Moves out of sight of several people faster than they could see.
• Jogs at 25mph for 10 kilometers alongside other Spartans.

Mk V

• ODST's move in slow motion to John.
• Dodges bullets after they are fired by an ODST, and again but after they are fired by three ODST's and again.
• With the help of Cortana, John deflects a Scorpion anti-tank missile that was tracking him.
• Immediately after tanking an anti-tank missile, John sprints ~66 mph across a half-kilometer distance though he tears his Achilles tendon doing so.
• He's able to dodge the laser weapons of Forerunner Aggressor sentinels.

Mk VI

• Immediately sprints at a speed of ~45 mph from rest.
• Intercepts and blocks a Covenant Beam Rifle shot after it's fired from roughly 30 meters away, which is a weapon that fires at ~Mach 10.7.
  • Another Spartan wearing the same armor dodges beam rifle shots twice including once from point blank. It's also being fired by a specialized Spartan Sniper if there are any doubts on it's accuracy.
• Maneuvers in mid-air to dodge gunfire from numerous Brutes.

GEN 2

• Spartans can avoid a sword swing from the Warden Eternal without even looking.

Marksmanship

• While running, John scores several headshots on Jackal snipers with his pistol.
• While Sprinting at around 45 mph, Chief is able to land multiple head and neck shots on several Jackal snipers who are around 30 meters away from him, shooting fast enough that his Magnum shots bleed together.
• Spartans can routinely land accurate sniper shots over a kilometer away while they are on the move.

Mobility

• John could balance atop and leap across ten meter tall wooden poles 10 centimeters in diameter even though he weighs half a ton in his armor.
• Spartans can jump ~25+ meters vertically onto a moving vehicle using his thrusters. (Mammoths are 27.1 meters tall.)
• Without using thrusters, Spartans can leap into the air 'like crickets' and engage aircraft.
• Spartans can easily scale cliffs.
• Spartans in GEN 2 armor can use their thrusters to effectively fly.

Endurance

• At 15 years old John is capable of sprinting 7 kilometers while expecting to do combat immediately after.
• 16 year old Blue Team covers 19 kilometers in 33 minutes, stopping twice to do weapon checks, running on rough terrain with support equipment, and running with their weapons in their hands. Roughly 24 mph sustained over 19km, with no intended rest before initiating combat.

Other Spartan Feats / Additional Scaling

Weapons / Equipment

Enemies / Additional Scaling

The four Spartans that composed Blue Team covered his back, standing absolutely silent and immobile in their MJOLNIR combat armor. Someone had once commented that they looked like Greek war gods in the armor … but his Spartans were far more effective and ruthless than Homer’s gods had ever been.

We have learnt all the main problems of the platform. And as we managed to find out, in fact, 40 percent of the platform pursue only one goal: boost elo at any cost.
In general, I like the phrase "elo at any cost" the most. What can I say if I, a person who wants comprehensive development in the game, am already tired of fighting off the claims of haters, smurfs, new accounts, pack of abusers and other dishonest people who, like drug addicts, start the same record, "azaza, you are an eternal 2k prisoner, how people can watch you".
And I decided to try the easiest way that most of you use. I started to play with guys who fit my internal criteria.
Neither new accounts, nor 4k elo tryharders, but ordinary guys. I, at that time a 2200 elo player, was forced to hammer 3k elo players for a couple of weeks how to properly play elementary default on maps.
RachelR: "Listen, please. Here we have 2 absolutely similar situations. When -HexaR- went lurking, when he shouldn't have done it. But you're going anyway. How Zhenya should watch everything? He's helping you somehow. He's strafing there, trying to watch something, seeing you off, you know? Your lurking. It is initially wrong, it should not have been in principle. But he's trying to help you. Because of you, he is being killed, damn it. And the two of you are being buried on the ramp precisely because of you, because of this move. And then the next move: he's ALREADY in the gap, he's not on the ramp, he's already in the gap. You're sitting on 50 cent, watching smoke. You're just looking at the smoke. Not even strafing. 2 absolutely identical situations. Absolutely! You're playing CS like playing dm. Here you have launched dm, shooting. You're only looking through your scope. And you press the buttons, you kill someone. Only here you still have grenades. Well, a map is neither Mirage nor Dust2, some new textures. Well, run and shoot. Great. You kill someone there, you find frags, but what's the use, where is the impact of these frags? Well, it's just, I say, guys, it shouldn't be that you have 2200 elo noob, a YouTuber, telling you off like that."
I was looking for the rounds, I was watching the demos with them, and in the end, literally in 60 matches, I managed to up almost 500 elo without any strain.
And do you know what amused me the most in this situation? The system of elo came to us from chess. And if in chess elo shows the real level of the player, then CS is still a team game in which, in fact, little depends on you alone.
And those who play chess will understand me perfectly. Just imagine if a beginner in chess of 1500 elo was telling a world-class grandmaster how to walk a knight on a chessboard.
Yes, the example seems absurd, but in fact it is. I have 2200 elo on Faceit, and I have to, in fact, re-teach the guys to play CS, because apart from shooting, they, in fact, did not know anything. Not did not know, did not attach importance to it, probably.
There was an inflation of elo on Faceit like 2 years ago. Level 10 can be obtained by getting 2000 elo, but there are already as many as 15 thousand people in the European Faceit with 3k elo or more.
It's time to update the system of elo, or adjust it, because if we don't do this in the next year or two, then we will already start receiving players who have 10k elo.
I have already touched on how to recycle the elo system in the clauses above. Either add solo and team rating, or limit people's search for a map after reaching certain elo, or change the system of ruthless balance to +25 and -25 elo.
Something needs to be done. I would even say it is necessary. But instead, Faceit has been trying for many years to deal with, in quotes, toxicity in lobby chats or in matches itself with the help of some bot with artificial intelligence, at the same time absolutely not touching and not recycling those systems that need it most.
Elo at the moment equals prestige in real life. Like an expensive car in the modern world.
If you are a streamer with elo below 3000, then you are considered a noob and no one will watch you. But the problem is that no one ever looks at how this streamer got these numbers.
Personally I am ready to sit on low elo for at least a few more years, but I will be honest, first of all, with myself.
Modern elo does not reflect the skill of the player. Modern elo reflects only the approximate level of the player's shooting. And not always.
ATTITUDE TO THE CIS REGION
If speaking out everything that has accumulated, then you probably don't need to stop.
I'm probably going to take too much on myself now, and forgive me for that, but I want to speak on behalf of the entire CIS community.
And no, I will not speak for Russia. I will speak for Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia, Uzbekistan, etc. I think that our region is treated absolutely badly.
We take the 71st season of the European FPL and look at how many esports players have played in this hub over the past month.
There were 85 of them. How many of them are CIS players? 18! I.e. every fifth player represents our region.
But FPL is probably too much. There are still quite celestial being there, so let's look at something closer, namely FPL-C.
People are already playing more actively here. 181 active players per month. 59 of them represent the CIS region, which is 32% of the active audience of the hub!
If this does not mean anything, then let's just take the last qualification in FPL-C, in which both trips to the coveted pro hub were taken by CIS players.
If even now Faceit considers us not worthy of more comfortable conditions for the game, then we take the rating from the European Face It.
19 out of 50, i.e. almost half of the players, represent the CIS region.
If that's not enough, then let's take the very top top.
We take the 20 best players in the world according to the HLTV rating for 2022 and are being surprised that as many as 7 people, i.e. 35%, are CIS guys.
Dear Faceit, do you know where the city Almaty is located?
It is one of the largest cities in Kazakhstan. Do you know what ping is there? Minimum 100! Almaty
Why for so many years you didn’t try to help one of the strongest and largest regions of your platform and still have not even tried to make servers, not in Moscow, in light of events in the world I understand that this is simply impossible, but at least in the same Kazakhstan or Georgia?
Why exactly should we put up with discomfort?
Look at your grid of servers in America, where a minimum number of players play, but it covers absolutely the entire area of the region. America servers
While your huge audience from Siberia, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia and other countries is forced to play on servers that are very compactly located in small Europe? small Europe?
Yes, I do not dispute that you gave us the opportunity to play on Moscow servers in separate CIS hubs, but, again, for a fee. Of course, you don't care, and you won't even try to fix this really important problem, but I couldn't help but mention it.
For our region, CS is a ticket to life, just like conditional football in poor countries. It is our players who have the most exorbitant motivation to develop in this game.
And instead of expanding your audience at the expense of the most motivated people in CS, you don't care about us and think that it is okay. Yes, of course.
Although what am I talking about? If Valve has already united our region with Europe and removed a separate CIS qualification for the major, while 2 of the last 3 majors were won by CIS guys.
Therefore, in principle, I understand that Faceit will not help us.
If not Faceit, then what? Unfortunately, nothing. Even if ESEA with its huge finances could not beat Faceit in fair competition, then, to be honest, I do not believe that anyone else can.
Well, we won't play MM on 64 tickrate against cheaters in every game. Our Fastcup-type counterparts, unfortunately, are not even close to Faceit.
It just so happened that Faceit is a monopolist, and monopoly never leads to good.
The ultimate idea of monopoly is not to allow new platforms to develop and at the same time not to get into what is already in demand. Faceit will start moving only when it will have a powerful competitor.
And personally I see the only way out is the release of the source 2 in CS itself, and the addition of a completely new and redesigned matchmaking by the Valve themselves with huge investments in anti-cheat and with listening to the audience.
After all, as far as I know, Dota and Valorant were able to make an interesting and attractive matchmaking, then why they haven't done it in CS yet – I don't understand.
I hope someday we will see something like this happen in CS. But until then, it seems, we will have to put up with all the problems of Faceit, because anyway, no matter what, we love this asshole.
A participant of the challenge: « Well, in general, I'm glad that we have Faceit. Really. Because there are some possibilities. We have to thank the universe. I'm not joking. This is not sarcasm. If not Faceit, then what? Where else would you get the opportunity to try to achieve something in CS? It is clear that this platform can be improved. In short, yes, there were moments when I already thought I wanted to quit this platform when I was performing a solo challenge, but in the end I thought that I've been playing solo all my life and, in principle, I had to get used to it. And finally, I got used to it, calmed down, came to terms with it and now I'm playing solo Faceit not suffering. You have to love Faceit. Love what you do. And then Faceit will love you for sure.»
Why did I make this text? Well, it's probably a childhood dream to reach out to the head manager, who, perhaps, after watching this video, will decide to do good, if I can say so, from people - for people.
And I couldn't help but speak out, because a lot had accumulated on my soul. I am not indifferent to CS, and I am not indifferent to Faceit, because it is, in fact, the good platform.
But most of all I care about guys who, just like me, spend thousands of hours on CS for the sake of some of their goals.
And the only thing I want is for these thousands and tens of thousands of hours to be spent for them in a pleasant, honest and fair game, and not behind garages with a jar of yaga with boosters, smurfs and bullying for small elo.
All information from the source

What President Biden has done - Year Two Makes sexual harassment in the military a crime
Economy grows faster than China's for 1st time in 20 years - Strongest economic growth since 1984
Limits the release of mercury from coal-burning power plants
Kills ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi
$5 billion for electric vehicle chargers
Gives $7 billion in frozen Afghanistan funds to compensate 9/11 victims and provide humanitarian aid
Posts $119 billion budget surplus in January; first in over 2 years
Unites world against Russia aggression
Imposes stiff sanctions to stifle Russian economy
Led the Western world in defending Ukraine against Russia's invasion
Ends forced arbitration in sexual assault cases in the workplace
Reinstates California authority to set pollution standards for cars
Ends asylum restrictions for children traveling alone
Clarifies the role of podiatric medicine for Veterans
Reauthorizes and strengthens the Violence Against Women Act
Creates Amache National Historic Site as America’s newest national park
Makes lynching a federal crime
Initiates "use it, or lose it" policy on drilling on public lands to force oil companies to increase production
Releases one million barrels of oil a day for 6 months from strategic reserves to ease gas prices
Rescinds Trump-era policy allowing rapid expulsion of migrants at border and blocks them from seeking asylum
Expunges student loan defaults
Overhauled the US Postal Service's finances to allow the agency to modernize its service
Requires federal dollars spent on infrastructure to use materials made in America
Restores environmental reviews for major infrastructure projects
Launches $6 billion effort to save distressed nuclear plants
Provides $385 million to help families and individuals with home energy costs through the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. This is in addition to $4.5 billion provided in the American Rescue Plan.
Establishes national registry of police officers who are fired for misconduct
Lifts sanctions on the Rojava and other opposition-held territory in Syria
Tightens restrictions on chokeholds, no-knock warrants, and transfer of military equipment to police departments
Requires all federal Law enforcement officers to wear body cameras
$265 million for South Florida reservoir, key component of Everglades restoration
Major wind farm project off West coast to provide electricity for 1.5 million homes
Continues Obama administration's practice of posting log records of visitors to White House
Devotes $2.1 billion to strengthen US food supply chain
Round 6 student loan debt cancelation: $5.8 billion - This is in addition to $20.7 billion previously cancelled
Invokes Defense Production Act to rapidly expand domestic production of critical clean energy technologies
Enacts two-year pause of anti-circumvention tariffs on solar
Allocates funds to federal agencies to counter 300-plus anti-LGBTQ laws by state lawmakers this year alone
Round 7 of student loan cancellation: $6 billion to 200,000 defrauded borrowers - Bringing total to $31 billion
Relaunches cancer 'moonshot' initiative to help cut death rate
Expands access to emergency contraception and long-acting reversible contraception
Prevents states from banning Mifepristone -- a medication used to end early pregnancy that has FDA approval
Steps to ensure the safety of those seeking and providing abortion care, including by protecting mobile clinics
Protecting privacy, safety and security of patients, providers and clinics
21 executive actions to reduce gun violence
Climate Smart Buildings Initiative: Creates public-private partnerships to modernize Federal buildings to meet agencies’ missions, create good-paying jobs, and cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions - Paying for today’s needed renovations with tomorrow’s energy savings without requiring upfront taxpayer funding
Safeguards access to health care, including the right to choose and contraception
Oversees effort to admit Finland and Sweden to NATO
Ends Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy
Operation Fly-Formula bringing needed baby formula – (19 missions to date)
Executive order protecting travel for abortion
Kills Al Qaeda leader and 9/11 architect Al-Zawahiri with no civilian casualties
Invested more in crime control and prevention than any president in history
As of August 2022, unemployment at 3.5% (50 year low)
Gas Prices drop below $4 a gallon
Provides death, disability, and education benefits to public safety officers and survivors who are killed or injured in the line of duty
Round 8 of student loan cancellation: $3.4 Billion dollars of defrauded IT student loans have been cancelled
Reunites 400 migrant families separated under Trump
$1.66 billion in grants to transit agencies, territories, and states to invest in 150 bus fleets and facilities
Brokers joint US/Mexico infrastructure project - Mexico to pay $1.5 billion for US border security and processing source says
Blocked 4 hospital mergers that would've driven up prices and is poised to thwart more anti-competition consolidation attempts
Gets $1.5 billion in new border control security at the border and got Mexico to pay for it
Historic Police Reform
FIRST MAJOR GUN LEGISLATION IN 30 YEARS • $750 million to implement and run crisis intervention programs
• Ended boyfriend loophole – Previously only married people convicted of domestic abuse were banned from owning firearms. The new law extends it to people who are dating
• Requires gun sellers to register as Federally Licensed Firearm Dealers
• More thorough reviews of people ages 18-21 who want to buy guns
• New statutes against gun trafficking and straw trafficking
• Increases funding for mental health programs and school security
THE PACT ACT • Ensures high-quality health care screenings and services to veterans exposed to potential toxic exposure
• Extends period of time veterans have to enroll in VA health care from 5 to 10 years post discharge
• Codifies VA’s new process for evaluating and determining exposure and service connection for various chronic conditions
• Removes need for certain veterans and their survivors to prove service connection if diagnosed with one of 23 specific conditions
• Requires VA to conduct new studies of veterans health trends
• Provides critical resources to VA to ensure delivery of
• Invests in VA health care facilities by authorizing 31 major medical health clinics and research facilities in 19 states
THE CHIPS ACT • Provides $52.7 billion to secure domestic supply of American made semi-conductor chips, create tens of thousands of good-paying, union construction jobs and thousands more high-skilled manufacturing jobs, and catalyze hundreds of billions more in private
• $39 billion in manufacturing incentives
• $2 billion for the legacy chips used in automobiles and defense systems
• $13.2 billion in R&D and workforce development
• $500 million to provide international information communications technology security and semiconductor supply chain activities
• Provides a 25 percent investment tax credit for capital expenses for manufacturing of semiconductors and related equipment
THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT OF 2022 Climate:
• Largest climate investment in history - Will reduce 40% amount of carbon released into atmosphere by 2030
• Defines greenhouse gases as a pollutant making them subjected to pollution laws
• $370 billion for U.S. energy security and fighting climate change
• Tax incentives for switching to electricity to power homes and vehicles
• $60 billion invested creating millions of new domestic clean manufacturing jobs and 550,000 new clean energy jobs
• Will quadruple the number of solar panels over the next 8 years
• Cuts energy bills by $500 to $1,000 per year
• Doubles battery storage on the grid
• Invests in disadvantaged communities
Health:
• $62 billion to extend subsidies for health insurance under the ACA
• Provides free vaccines (2023), $35/month insulin for Medicare patients, (2023) and caps out-of-pocket drug costs to an estimated $4,000 or less in 2024 and settling at $2,000 in 2025
• Lowers health care costs of the average enrollee $800/year in the ACA marketplace
• Allows Medicare to negotiate 100 drugs over the next decade, and requires drug companies to rebate price increases higher than inflation
Inflation Reduction:
• Significantly Lowers energy and health care costs for families
• Reduces Deficit by $313,000,000,000
• Closes tax loopholes used by wealthy: a 15% corporate minimum tax, a 1% fee on stock buybacks and enhanced IRS enforcement
• Protects families and small business making under $400,000 a year
The Cost • $485 billion of new costs would be offset with $790 billion of additional revenue and savings over a decade.
Total Revenue Raised: $737 billion
• 15% Minimum tax on corporations with profits exceeding $1 billion
• Prescription Drug Pricing Reform: $265 billion
• IRS Tax Enforcement: $124 billion
• 1% Stock Buybacks Fee: $74 billion
• Loss Limitation extension: $ 52 billion
Deficit Reduction:
• $313 billion dollars
STUDENT LOAN FORGIVENESS (Round 8 and by far the largest) • $20,000 for everyone with Pell Grants
• $10,000 for everyone else making less than $125,000 for individuals & $250,000 married couples
• Payments again paused until the end of 2022
• Payments for undergrad loans capped at 5% of your income (previously was 10%)
• This is addition to the 8 previous rounds of debt cancellation totally $35 billion
• 20-40 million people will benefit
• Codifies DACA into law - Allows dreamers (children of immigrants born in US) ability to work and stay in US
Declares Moonshot Style Effort to Cure Cancer • Hires Dr. Renee Wegrzyn as the inaugural Director of ARPA-H, a new agency to drive biomedical innovation
• Launches National Biotechnology and Manufacturing Initiative
• Cancer Cabinet’s progress towards delivering cancer detection tech and support for researchers across US
Infrastructure Projects in Individual States Created by Infrastructure Bill
All-Time Low Uninsured rate
10 million jobs—more than ever created before at this point of a presidency
3.5% unemployment rate—a near record low in the history of this country
Best Economic growth in over two decades (yes that has been adjusted for inflation)
More than 220 million Americans were vaccinated
Record small business creation
Round nine of student loan forgiveness - $1.5 Billion for defrauded college borrowers
Biden created DOJ task force dismantles human smuggling organization near Texas-American border
Intervened to prevent nation-wide rail strike which would have caused national economic disaster
Blocks Chinese investments in US tech
Eliminates statute of limitations for civil suits for people who were sexually abused as minors
Pardons thousands for simple possession of marijuana
Reevaluating how cannabis is classified. Currently it is schedule I like heroin - Meth & coke are schedule II
Reunited over 500 families separated at the border by Trump policies
Puts new limits on drone strikes including requiring the presidential approval
Brokered deal between Israel and Lebanon ending maritime boundary dispute and establish a permanent maritime boundary between them
PAWS Act: Requires zoos, commercial animal dealers, and research facilities to have contingency plans in place to evacuate and care for animals in an emergency or disaster situation
Increases veterans’' life insurance benefit coverage to $500,000. First increase in 17 years
Ensures US is not funding or participating in human trafficking of 3rd world-country workers through our contracts overseas
Enacts aggressive steps to improve quality of nursing homes
Codifies Gay Marriage into law - Protects Same-Sex and Interracial Marriage
Prohibits private possession of big cats and prohibits exhibitors from allowing direct contact with cubs
Electrifies US Postal trucks by 2026
Stops the forcing out of pregnant workers, or denying reasonable accommodations
Extended health care funding for the 9/11 first-responders and survivors
Streamlined Veterans home loans, provided way to transfer GI Bill benefits to new school, and provided support for survivors of military sexual trauma.
Year Two Accomplishments: 4.5 million jobs added in year two - Over 11 million jobs added in first two years
Unemployment rate at 50 year low
Cuts budget deficit in half - $1.4 trillion deficit reduction is the largest single-year reduction in US history
Greatest year in history for new small business applications - (over 10 million new businesses created)
Record number of Americans having health insurance
This Senate has confirmed 97 federal judges
Limit China’s technological development breaking decades of federal policy and represents most aggressive American action yet to curtail Beijing’s economic and military rise
Appointed more black women to the court than any president in history

PreGame

Scratches Ice: D Ashton Cumby(17), F Zach Benson(17), F Carson Latimer(19), F Ty Fraser(17), Landon Young(16) D Wyatt Wilson(19) returns. He was out for 7 games out with injury. D Karter Prosofsky(19) back after 22 games out with Injury.
Ice missing 2 big key guys, Zach Benson put up 98 points. Latimer put up .5ppg after getting traded to Winnipeg from PA
Scratches Tigers: Pavel Bocharov(18) Highly likely injury related.

First Period

The Ice got off to a pretty hot start putting up a pair of goals, including an early PP goal as Lindstrom was hauled off for a 10 second bear hug. I thought the Tigers started a bit slow, their attack was modified a bit and it took them half a period to get adjusted.
The Tigers were the better team in the second half. They were able to generate some good looks on net. The only shot that beat Hauser was Andrew Basha going high blocker after getting fed from Oasiz Weisblatt down low. 2-1 Ice

Second Period

The Tigers had the momentum for the first half of the period, but couldn't score. I almost felt like they were over-thinking the shot. The ice looked to be on their heels a little bit. Josh Van Mulligen with a playoff hit on the boards and the Tigers went down shorthanded and the ice Capitalized. 3-1 Ice

Third Period

Tigers Started shorthanded and the Ice generated a lot of momentum early. They kept pressuring after the powerplay and ended up with a 2nd PP opportunity in which Matthew Savoie one-timed a shot high blocker on Langkow for his 2nd goal of the game.
Basha would get fed on the PP off a cross ice pass from Weisblatt and a tap in, to make it a 4-2 Game. Matthew Savioe would get his hat-trick on an empty netter and then Rhett Parsons as time wound down fired a far out wrist shot high glove on Hauser that beat him clean. Final Score: Ice 5 Tigers 3

Overall

Penalties have been an Achilles heel for the Tigers and it cost them in game one giving up 3 powerplay goals. The Ice have a lot of creativity and strong shots on their roster and you give them space they will pound shots on the net. Langkow played pretty well in the net, it's just hard to stop rockets from in tight on the PP.
The Tigers definitely created some offence and gave the Ice some troubles. They did a great job at making passes through open ice seams. We will see what game 2 brings.
I noticed the Ice would keep a guy in front of the Tigers net, then as the Tigers maintained puck possession and got ready to go up ice on the breakout, the player in front of the net would not rotate back up ice, he would go attack down low again and it sometimes surprised the Tigers defenceman on the breakout. It caught them off-guard in the first period. But the ice keeping that player down low often meant a simpler breakout up ice once that first outlet pass was made.
I saw the Tigers go low glove a lot tonight and the only goal that beat Hauser was high glove by parsons at a spot that probably should have been saved. The Tigers also got a goal off the high blocker, and along the ice on a cross ice pass. I think they need to throw a few shots high glove to keep him honest. I also think Brendan's Lee one-timer setup to the high blocker side would be advantageous if he could get it off.

Next Up

Game #2 Saturday night.

Great news! Interest rates fell and cash buyer boomers from NOVA have all been ground into soylent you should have no problem snatching up that cute turn key move in ready ranch with a nice yard walking distance to bars and coffee shops for $200k (25k under list full inspection seller covers all repairs) in the Munford school district!
 
.......Ok lmao yeah April Fools let’s just get that shit out of the way now.
 
I’m a real estate agent working all over the entire Richmond area. I’ve been involved in real estate over ten years in one form or another and am in the top 5% of agents in my company nationwide. With my boring whack ass credentials out of the way welcome to my Q2 real estate update where I want to look back on how far we've come in the last three months. We’ll do a quick primer on the current banking crisis that’s been making headlines and what that means for the coming economic collapse (lololol). I also want to walk you through what it’s been like on the ground with some buyers of mine and highlight some events during the course of finding them a home. We’re also going to have some guest commentary by /rva’s resident lender u/gracetw22 with her take on the mortgage side of the business.
 
I’d like to apologize a head of time because I’m going to be jumping into and out of things as I’m writing all of this so the main thread of the post is going to zig zag a bit. Just think of it more like a journey > destination type thing. I’ll try to make this as guided as I can but will probably spend more time fucking with reddit post formatting than drawing up a proper outline so uhhh let's jump in.
 

Days of Whine and Roses

For those joining us for the first time here is the post I made at the start of the year. This covers a lot of basics about where we have come from, answers some FAQs about appraisal gaps/cash buyers/home prices skyrocketing, and is generally just a good starting point for everything I’m going to discuss in this post. Much of this is still valid today and I have been told this is an extremely pro click:
 
RVA Real Estate Outlook 2023 - Behold a Pale Gray House
 
Housing has been in a recession since June/July of last year. The increase in mortgage rates have really put a damper on the market. In some ways that’s a good thing. Things were getting a little too crazy. It sucks for affordability, but homes were flying on and off the market way too fast. Many people couldn’t afford them even because so many people had cash on hand to bid over asking, which is different from an all-cash sale (see my previous post for a more detailed explainer on this), and the list price of a home doesn’t mean shit if it sells for an entirely different and much higher price.
 
The price of the home is what the invisible hand of the market doing jerk off motions says the price is. You can list a trash heap with no central air in Highland Springs for a million but that doesn’t mean you will get it. Conversely you can list some gorgeous updated home in the near west end for a ridiculous amount under recent comps in the last 90 days and pretend like you’re the hero when it falls in line with everything else as it goes under contract. Guess what real estate agents absolutely love doing to artificially boost their credibility?
 
Side note: occasionally in real estate posts someone on here will share a Zillow link to a home pending for like I dunno 350k that looks absolutely magnificent and almost every single time that happens I inevitably look it up, pull comps, and go “yeah this is underpriced by 50-100k.” Ya’ll please stop allowing yourself to be catfished. It’s a deliberate ploy and agents have been shamelessly doing it for the past 2 years. If it looks too good to be true, it more than likely is. Here is an example that caught everyone’s eye listed at 349k closed at 405k: 8016 Burrundie Drive
 

Nobody move there’s blood on the floor

Anywho I mentioned the R word and by that I mean a recession in housing. What you have to remember is that if you’re going to pack your shit up and sell your home you are almost always going to become a buyer unless you’re also being packed up in a coffin or urn on your way out in which case you don’t care where you go. If you’re looking to sell you are looking at what you think you’re going to net for your home as well as what your all-in and monthly payment is going to be on your next home. A lot of sellers are sitting pretty right now flush with equity. The vast majority are holding onto rates of 4.5% or lower. Why give that up unless you absolutely have to? Keep in mind a metric fuck ton of people refinanced in 2020 when rates cratered. Yeah you can bend a buyer over a barrel and get top dollar for your place now, but for many it’s a wash because they’ll have to pay that much more for their next place, go through what they just did to Mr and Mrs Buyer, and end up paying way more for the same thing they just gave up. When rates were low this was easier to stomach, but when they started skimming 7% the value proposition just wasn’t there. This caused a pretty substantial drop in inventory nationally because everyone stayed put. The issue of inventory has been the main driver of why housing sucks the last few years so even though we have less of it there is still upward pressure on pricing just due to the fact that there isn’t enough to go around.
 
Fewer homes being listed means fewer buying opportunities for everyone. The whole system kind of seized up. That being said there are still a lot of renters and first time home buyers trying to break into the market because the rental market fuckin’ suuuuuuucks regardless of what rates are doing. I got a text from someone who I didn’t really expect to hear from until later this year tell me his rent is being jacked up 17% because “reasons” according to his landlord. When people are faced with that kind of increase suddenly purchasing becomes a lot more enticing. You aren’t at the whims of the rental market, you can bank some equity, and you can (mostly) do what you want where you live.
 
If you go back to 2018-2019 which were the last time the world looked ::finger quotes:: “normal” you would see inventory was pretty flat until late Feb and then rose to a peak in the summer. This year has followed the same pattern we’ve had in 2021 and 2022 except we still aren’t seeing the flatline into growth we should be seeing right now. Inventory continues to fall and if that tracks we may not see “peak” inventory until August. There is no hard and fast rule on what the new normal is so this is something I’m going to continue to keep a close eye on city wide and will try to update everyone that’s interested accordingly. For now (In an Extremely Kai Rysdall Voice) let’s do the numbers.
 
Active listings around this time last year hovered around 351k total available units nationwide. It was 438k in March of 2021 and 934k units in 2020. Currently it is at 562k-ish. If your memory is hazy I’ll just point out that March of 2020 was really before COVID hit the US and went gangbusters which is when inventory dropped like a rock and everyone thought housing was going to crash. This week last year we had 93k new listings but substantially higher numbers of immediate sales. Those are homes that go on the market and go under contract within a day or two. We have 68k new listings now with around half as many immediate sales. Again all of this is nationwide so take it with a grain of salt when trying to draw a conclusion using those numbers and comparing them to Richmond. We’re a different market than San Francisco or Denver and what is happening locally here vs there isn’t reflected in this data. Some parts of the country are seeing big increases in inventory and considerably higher vacancy rates on rentals that we don’t have here. I’m just sharing this because it’s interesting from a birds eye perspective.
I think this is a pretty good time to point out the obvious that there is a lot going on in the world feeding into this that isn’t housing specific. It’s as good a time as any to segue into how dumb and bad Silicon Valley bank was at being a bank so let’s fuckin go.
 

Do Re Mi, ABC, SVB baby u and me

Silicon Valley Bank mostly served VCs and the tech sector. That’s been their bread and butter for a while now. Banks typically like to keep portions of their investments tied to relatively safe assets or securities like bonds. If you are watching JP at the fed turn the dial on rates up those bonds you now hold are not worth as much. A good bank will diversify the types of bonds (ie a bond ladder) they hold so that they can let some of them grow to maturity while cash out others but not at SVB. So as the rates went up their bonds became worthless right around the time a lot of VCs and tech companies were feeling the pinch and in need of more cash. SVB said they were going to sell some assets at a loss, people got spooked and there was a run on the bank. Within a short time SVB was toast. Luckily there was a bailout that lots of people are claiming was not a bail out because SVB executives weren’t being saved (there was a bailout) so most depositors will be made whole. Since then Janet Yellen has been going “Wow there certainly a lot of questions about my ‘the banking system is sound and secure’ t shirt I’ve been wearing all week”.
 
There were other banks and institutions that have bit the dust or been on shaky ground like Silvergate with their disproportionate exposure to dogecoine or whatever the fuck crypto nonsense they were up to. Credit Suisse had some shitty fund management issues going back years and some absolutely insane storylines involving the Belgian gang cocaine money laundering, the Saudi’s refusing to back it on reports of mismanagement, etc. The point is this is a crisis in the ability of some banks to do very basic bank things. It’s not the same thing as Lehman Brothers, CDS, AIG, credit availability to the average consumer with a pulse being approved for “sky is the limit” loans without asset verification. This is a case of some banks screwed up how they hold bonds which is one of the most boring things to fuck up in that world. They didn’t get struck by a moving vehicle out of nowhere. They put their car in neutral on a .05 degree decline, laid down 20 feet away, and let it roll over them at a snails pace.
 
Fun fact: the CEO of SVB was actually the CFO of Lehman Brothers in the 2008 GFC so lol man oh man talk about falling up.
 
“But gowhatyourself, what does this have to do with housing in Richmond?” You know I’m glad you asked that question Rhetorical Device thank you. It doesn’t directly, but it has introduced a degree of volatility to the bond market and in turn interest rates that, again, has given sellers pause and some lucky buyers a great opportunity to get in at lower rates as they time the fluctuations. I have more to say on that later on.
Markets do not like volatility. Line must go up and in the absence of “up” it must stay flat or decline in a predictable way so that there is enough breathing room to make money on the way down. The house always comes out ahead but when conditions are uncertain things get dicey. That’s part of why SVB went under. The house (Peter Thiel) coordinated a bank run. The economy, just like real estate, is often governed by “vibes”.
 

You get a good job with more pay and you're okay

“So what are the vibes in Richmond gowhatyourself? Home prices are declining! I saw they dropped precipitously in Sacramento!” Yes no kind of not really. Much like politics real estate is both national and hyper local. Trends in inventory and home prices can be looked at broadly as a measure of what the economy is going through as a whole, but it lacks context. Prices have fallen in areas with a lot of tech exposure which have seen layoffs and slow downs so people aren’t paying the same premiums they once were. Again though, it’s context dependent. We didn’t experience the same price shock as some other metro areas. We didn’t see the absolutely bonkers price increases you saw in Austin or Des Moines for example. We also aren’t seeing the same type of correction either. Our home prices have actually stayed relatively flat or have even gone up in some areas of town since last summer. I’m still regularly seeing homes go for some pretty eye watering prices in the fan and near west end, but not so much in say Moseley. Short Pump still has some wild shit happen from time to time too. I, much like many others, cannot for the life of me figure out why 12 Westham Parkway went for 400k over asking.
 
For reference here is a great article on where the current housing correction is most pronounced broken down by different geographical areas. You can go in and select the Richmond region (unfortunately not down to a really granular level to just RVA). The link below bypasses the paywall. The article with the paywall is linked below that just to show it’s something I didn’t mock up out of the blue.
 
Fortune Housing Market Update
https://fortune.com/2023/03/13/housing-market-update-home-price-correction-told-by-six-charts-and-maps-data-real-estate/
 
Again, context matters. Scarcity matters. Buyer appetite and their motivations matter.
The motivation matters because some buyers aren’t entirely on board with getting the process started, but have their hand forced because landlords think they can squeeze more out of their tenants. I cannot count the number of people I’ve spoken to in the last month that have told me their rent is being raised by some obscene amount with landlords giving the excuse of “Oh yeah my costs are rising”. Buddy your costs to do what refuse to replace air filters or something because you aren’t doing shit in the best of times? Buyers just take a deep breath hold their nose and start making the necessary moves to purchase a home. Landlords don’t care because they can and will raise rent even more if those people bail so it’s a win for them regardless. At least for now until vacancy rates start to rise like they are in other parts of the country where people decided that building more housing was a thoughtful prudent thing to do.
 
I know landlords read these real estate threads and I’m not trying to paint you all with the same brush I’m kind of sure that not all of you are blood sucking sociopaths. AirBnB owners can get fucked though.
 

'Till the tears run down from my eyes, Lord

At this point I’d like to walk you through the process for one of my buyers (With their permission!) that started their journey back in December. I think it took a rather interesting arc that illustrates a lot of trends going on in real estate right now. When we first spoke they gave me their list of wants and needs so I did the usual thing of sending them things to look over and then put them on an automated search that went out daily. I was still checking on the portal every day and tweaking things here and there (“Hmm what if we go back a few years on the build date or look a little more east…” that kind of thing). We were casting an extremely wide net. South of the river from 288 all the way down to around Courthouse Road at 288 out west to about the Richmond Zoo. 500k or less built in the last 25 years. That is an absolutely massive area. They had certain preferences for what they wanted in the home of course. Some natural light, a halfway decent kitchen, and some square footage to spread out in but there was nothing they told me that was so hyper specific that it should have been difficult to find anything. Boy I was wrong.
 
We would go weeks without seeing anything come on the market. I think we only went out maybe once in January because there was just nothing and even then what we toured wasn’t worth the drive for either of us. When something did go live we’d go take a look at it and jointly agree that it just wasn’t even worth offering on. Usually it was because the home had not been kept up with which is something you find more often than you’d think. People buy/build new homes then assume they don’t need to do anything to it so they never change their air filters, clean the gutters, etc. There was one home we saw that was built in 2017 and I swear to god I don’t think they had ever changed the air filters anywhere. The HVAC system sounded it like it had been chain smoking Marlboro reds for the last 5 years and when I popped open the air return dust and dirt had completely caked over causing a near total blockage of air flow. Sometimes we’d go and find out a home had solar panels that had not or would not be paid off at closing. What buyer is going to cover $40k worth of solar panels at closing? The point is they weren’t being picky or anything there just wasn’t anything that really worked.
 
Weeks and months went by with nothing to really put an offer on, but at the same time we also weren’t losing out on anything either. Homes were still going under contract quickly we just didn’t see a reason to bite on any of them. The week SVB went under I started watching the 10 year bond dip and poking around just outside the MLS area they had been looking at because I felt if there was ever a time to stretch the parameters it’s now if rates drop abruptly over the weekend. Bingo. I found something that checked almost all of their boxes. We toured the home. They loved it. I hit up their lender to see where rates were and if he was seeing movement trending down. Between the beginning of the week and when we went under contract their rate had gone down almost a full percentage point. After months of wandering the stars aligned and we were set. No escalation clauses, no waiving inspections or waiving the appraisal. Just a fair purchase price on a cleanly written offer and a 30 day close.
 
The listing agent tried to do the whole “My sellers are out of town and need to review in two days” and I just went “nah lady you used Authentisign for the DPOR form you can present this now thanks.” So she caved and she did. For the record it was almost impossible to bully sellers like this last year. They’d just tell you to pound sand and get in line.
 
Some of what I mentioned above wasn’t really the case a few years ago. There was a lot more competition and even though right now the data was clearly showing there were more homes being listed nationally than there had been in previous years we just weren’t seeing it where we were looking. That whole part of town either locked in their purchase around 3% or they re-financed and planned on staying put. That’s just how the burbs be sometimes.
 
The point of all of this isn’t to say “WoooOOOwww I’m SUCH a good agent” it’s that the market is doing really funky things and ultimately it’s possible to get into something you want if you are patient and strategic. Plan accordingly! If you are thinking of doing something this year get your ducks in a row now so that when opportunities like that present themselves you know what you want and you can act decisively. Talk to Grace and sort out what your financing is going to be. Figure out if you want to break a lease early and if there are any penalties or if you’re free and clear with 60 days notice. Confirm with your soulless middle manager at cap one that you are locked into WFH so you can shop south of 288 without fear of reprisals via shit traffic engineering.
 
One last thing I want to cover before I turn things over to Grace is what happened with new construction following my last post in January. At the time what we were seeing in the industry were home builders struggling to make their numbers because longer lead times vs resale were hampering their ability to keep fidgety buyers watching rates rise under contract. Homes were being cancelled and people were backing out at alarming rates. So here I have to hand it to the builders. They saw where they had leverage and pounced in some pretty creative ways. Many builders have in house financing (NVR Mortgage and Ryan Homes for example) so some of them started doing things like aggressively offering free rate buy downs, or holding steady on pricing and offering deep incentives like hey sign now and you get 15k in free kitchen upgrades (at 2k cost to us). I saw home builders offering free trips to resorts to agents who brought them a buyer who signed on the dotted line. Commission offerings from builders went up. They pulled all the right levers and captured a lot of people who had been sitting on the sidelines through the winter. Some builders found that fairly mild price cuts were all you needed to do to get people through the door again. The builders just have leverage in ways traditional sellers either are unwilling to take advantage of or simply cannot compete with.
 
As promised here are some Deep Thoughts with our lord and savior of rva lending u/gracetw22 :

Just some quick thoughts for where I see mortgages moving:

1. After the most recent federal reserve meeting, Jerome Powell’s comments seemed to indicate that they were slowing down the rate of federal funds increases, and believes that the current amount of credit tightening is more than the current inflation data shows, so the fed intends to wait to see what the current changes cause before continuing on. The fed indicates to expect one additional rate increase this year and expects slightly lower rates next year. This does NOT directly impact your mortgage rate, but it does tend to follow similar patterns to what DOES impact your mortgage rate. Love to hear it.
   
2. Getting MUCH less press but what will be MUCH more impactful to your mortgage rate is the strong stance the federal government is taking in policy as it pertains to mortgages. Remember, the only reason that a 30 year fixed rate mortgage exists is BECAUSE of the secondary market for them and the government entities that manage that. Private loans that are not sold on these markets are historically 2-3% higher. The federal housing finance agency and house finance committees have made a number of decisions lately that signal the government is moving their policy on mortgages away from a risk based model: the riskier the loan, the more expensive, and more toward a social service type model: the less help you need from us, the more expensive. As of right now, someone making less than 80% of the area median income is getting the same rate that someone with an 800 score and 50% down would receive REGARDLESS of credit score, down payment, property type, etc. Someone with a 740 score who makes over that 80% limit is paying a higher rate comparatively than they were 2 months ago. More detail here: https://www.reddit.com/RealEstate/comments/10kc155/new_loan_level_pricing_adjustments_fo Where do I see that going? Higher earners are going to increasingly have the best available rates from banks that are lending their own money or brokers that run with very minimal overhead.
   

 
So that’s a wrap. If you made it this far thank you very much for your time an attention. I hope this was an entertaining and informative read. I’ll answer questions where I can and you all can advocate about how we should line 95 with the crucified bodies of would-be carpetbaggers from NOVA pricing everyone out of the market. You can howl into the nothing about how we need zoning changes and higher density residential construction. Housing bears feel free to doom-say away and everyone who hates real estate agents get in line behind me because you don't hate them more than I do.

A homeless teenager reaches out to the Shil’vati on first day of the invasion of Earth.
This is a rewrite of my original story ‘Loyalist’.
Credit to u/bluefishcake for writing the original SSB story.
Pizzaulostin who has been beta reading since the beginning.
and u/BruhMomentGEE
Credit to u/HollowShel for getting me started with this!
This story is based in the SSB universe.
Previous
First
next
as always, comments are welcome.

Chapter 17:

Thanks to the author of Alien-Nation for editing this chapter!

Ruhal:

“We are sorry about the restraints. Your dossier has a security lock from the Office of Interior that I can’t even read, and all our supervisor could tell us was ‘interview with caution’,” one of the two agents explained.
I regarded my handcuffs with professional disapproval. They had a longer than regular chain for ambulatory movement and inmate processing, by the deep, I could even use them as garrote if needed. They had revealed the limits of their rank with that apology.
“No need to worry. I am sure this will be a formality in less than an hour,” I told them, if there was one thing that was in abundance on the planet Sky it was Interior and undercover commando trainees. I hoped this would probably be their most interesting case all month.
“So, would you care to explain how you are raising a human, that is also considered a military asset?” The agent inquired as she pulled out her slate.
“Of course, Klein surrendered himself and requested medical aid and refugee status. He was willing to answer essential questions regarding human culture that aided in liberating humanity into the Shil’vati Empire. He wouldn’t be safe on Earth anymore, and I mentioned that he was still important in writing my reports. If I had my slate, I could give you the relevant documentation,” I said in a conversational tone, without any of the emotions that weighed the story, and glossing over the specifics.
“No need. I have everything you submitted to the Interior, including his asset designation, the interrogation transcripts, and even his doctor’s contact info. To be honest with you it’s the only reason we haven’t interviewed you yet, even after a dozen calls about a ‘possible trafficked human’ since he arrived. Your information is corroborated with several other departments. The issue now is what the medivac scans found.” The agent pushed a slate towards me with medical notes bolded for emphasis ‘probable severe abuse’.
“The report shows a recent history of blunt force trauma, abrasions, and even muscle tearing, in short. It looks like the human has been systematically tortured for months. You also have recently requested restricted training armor in the human’s size.” The agent explained.
Ah, that was my mistake. I had been treating Klein as another child, just with some unique needs. It looks like there were other considerations, ones that I failed to see.
“I really do need my omni-slate to illustrate this, it’s on my desk right now if one of your assistants could get it?” I asked, hoping they got the suggestion to not leave me with only one interrogator in the room so they wouldn’t be graded too harshly.
They thankfully acquiesced without comment, and with my omni-slate in hand I pulled up the latest video of Klein practicing with me, the speed and brutality was difficult for me to sit through. Then, Klein pulled off his helmet seconds later, laughing in the rain. Unconcerned that, without armor, we could have just killed each other- I was grateful he had, else it might’ve been interpreted quite differently. “The bruising mostly from everyday participation at a Rakiri gym, and some remnants from before I got proper gear for baton practice. He heals extremely fast, and more so, he isn’t happy unless he exercises for at least an hour or two a day.”
I pulled up another video. Klein was sitting at the table bouncing his leg at an ever-increasing pace while trying to focus on a decently complex equation. He finally stood up and started pacing mouthing words as he skipped in time to an unheard rhythm.
“W-what’s he doing?” The agent asked, looking just a tad disturbed by the display of what seemed erratic behavior.
“A sort of dance while playing the song ‘a fine mesh net’ on his headphones. There was a monsoon that Shel weekend, and even I’m not crazy enough to fight in a thunderstorm like that. He does that around the house for an hour, and then finally settles in on a video game,” I explained to the agents, who were looking at me dubiously.
“So, you oversee an adolescent who is an intelligence asset, but also seems poorly fitted for Shil’vati life. Why the baton practice? Wouldn’t that make him even more dangerous, more of an outsider? Are you trying to sabotage his integration? Why not take him shopping, instead, or teach him beauty and self-care routines?” They were antagonizing. Countering every argument to see how I reacted. It seemed they could at least interrogate decently well.
“I hardly call a few quirks ‘poor fitting’. The baton practice is for obvious self-defense. Its intention is to make him dangerous,” I explained, letting the interviewers lead the conversation.
The back and forth went on for a while, but I presented a highlight reel of the last few months. Including a Rakiri gym video when Klein tried to flourish a wall climb and smashed his shoulder on the ledge while face planting into the mud.
The agents would not be arresting me today. They would need medical reports, and would require Klein, Hario, and Compassion Through Deeds to attest while truth scanned that these were sports injuries, and not some conspiracy to commit torture. We were also going to need to see an ICAD agent every two weeks for counseling. I had no idea what ICAD was, but I would investigate them later.
Finally, the agents appeared they were closing up the interview. I tried not to brace myself as they asked the complicated question. “One thing we need to know is, what is Klein to you? If he is just a crucial asset, then why haven’t you contacted a local volunteer family foster? Or was the military asset just a cover to find a male heir?”
I sighed, the truth wasn’t incriminating, but if I didn’t word it right, I would look like the worst sort of military tourist. “I had, originally, taken care of Klein as a key intelligence asset. Within that first week though, I had found that despite the decades of preparation, there wasn’t a process for someone to claim asylum as a child during first contact. He would be in military bureaucratic limbo without an advocate. We both know where he would end up.”
The room cooled by several degrees, which was a pity, I almost got the talkative agent to laugh at Klein’s antics. “Out of duty I investigated ways I could bring him home until I could find resources to place him in a stable situation with all the resources to help a xeno without a community. I found someone who was willing to help in exchange for reports on Klein’s adaptation to Shil’vati lifestyle. That’s Klein’s purpose as a military asset in my home.”
I continued. I was saying more on than I needed to, but if they did a follow up investigation later for some other incident, which was a when, not if, then I wanted this on record. “Klein has become part of this household though, despite, or maybe because, of his oddities. He may not be Shil’vati, but he seems to have integrated well. It’s why, while it was never my intention, when he is an adult, I will offer him full adoption, and title of home guardian.”
I watched the agents exchange looks, then the agent made a few taps on her slate. ‘Upper left, middle center, probably a message app’. I then listened for the telltale taps of a yes as a micro expression of a self-satisfied smile crossed the agent’s face. I decided to stop playing interviewee.
“So, you won the bet on if I would claim the human as my son, how long has that pool been building?” I asked folding my hands together.
The agent answered before she could think. “Two months… Wait!? How did you-”
The agent was cut off by the squawk of the slate’s speaker. “Agents you did well enough with the interview portion, however; you absolutely failed to secure the subject. Could you please illustrate to them why I stressed caution {petal of death’s veil}?”
The code name wasn’t one I had heard in decades, but I wasn’t going to snub an old handler. I kicked on my fast reaction mods to max speed and lunged over the table past the still sitting agents. I pirouetted and twisted the restraints into a loop as I brought them down over the left agent’s head and pulled back carefully, lightly touching the chain of my restraints around the neck of the agent before she could even react.
I kicked off my mods and caught my breath as time returned to normal. Both agents’ eyes went wide with shock as the one not about to be strangled tried to get away to pull out her weapon. “W-who are you!?”
“I’m going to slowly release you and put my hands up, is that everything you needed {hated old friend}?” I directed my question to the slate, using the code High Shil word to show I was playing along.
“More than enough. Agent! Holster your weapon and come back to the safe room. We need to go over security procedures,” the slate responded, and the very brief confrontation was over.
The agents walked out, and Siltan stomped in looking like she could bring about a thunderstorm by pure force of will. “We weren’t the only ones to get visits from the ‘majesty’s’ Interior today. Cee let me know that the Interior is also interrogated Reqellia as well.”
I now understood why these two rookies were here. It was a distraction for me. I grumbled as I picked up my slate and called Reqellia. Her face appeared a second later.
“By the Deep, it’s been a long day,” Reqellia breathed out as I heard a door slam, then she cursed some more.
“Tell me everything. Is Klein ok?” I asked.
“Cee says he’s fine and is waking him up. Klein might be getting a mod himself before she closes him up though because, oh- looks like it’s my day is going to get longer still. ICAD is here, and it’s a Hydrean in a Gearschilde clinic.” Reqellia hung up, and I stared at the phone in confusion.
It was time to find out what ICAD was.

Klein:

I blearily came to, as high powered, piercing white light flooded my half open eyes. I tried to move my arm to shield my face and found I couldn’t. Actually, I couldn't move or even feel anything from the neck down.
I started to panic as I turned my head, focusing on lettering on a terminal, tried to sigh, and felt what few muscles I could control turn to lead as I sank back on the medical bed. Thank the goddess, it was Shil and Gearschilde lettering on the slate and medical supplies.
“Good afternoon Klein, are you okay? Your heart rate spiked.” I heard Cee, or full name Compassion Through Deeds, speak and turned my head to see her. She wore a dark red lab coat and regarded me with unblinking cybernetic eyes. Most of her orange skin had been replaced with dark steel etched with stylized waves and swirls of silver. Her face still emoted in a pleasant smile, but had that uncanny valley look of unblemished synth skin. I looked down to see a dozen micro surgical tools still inside me.
I should have been screaming at the sight, but all I felt was relief and joy. “Yeah, I just worried for a half second that I had hallucinated the last few months and was actually on a back on Earth on some black-market operating table getting my kidney stolen.”
Cee was aghast. “Does that happen on Earth?”
I would shrug, but again, I couldn’t move, instead I responded. “Rumors of it happening, but I never knew anyone personally.”
Cee reassured me. “Well, good news Klein, you are on Sky, you are in a Gearschilde clinic where stealing vital organs is a legal, moral and religious crime of unrepentant severity. What I have done is remove your appendix, and let the sedatives wear off so we can discuss what you want in its place.”
“In place of my appendix? Why?” I asked, it wasn’t like I really needed the vestigial organ turn internal hand grenade.
“Customary in Gearschilde for surgery is to be about giving a better life than just taking from the body. So, any ideas of what would make your life better?”
I thought about the bruising, the constant having to put healing patches on, and the annoyance of doing so. I thought about the near fatality of almost blowing my appendix, and if something could have fixed the issue before it got out of hand. “What about a healing dispenser? I keep having to put on patches and gel at the end of the day, and if I miss a spot, I will pay for it later.”
Cee gave me a grateful expression. “That’s a perfect first implant. I was worried you were going to ask for something more aggressive. When I was your age, I got my first defensive mod, a retractable forearm knife. Of course, my next surgery was being stitched back together after accidently stabbing myself with it.”
I tried to chuckle, but I didn’t have control of my diaphragm for it. “So, what’s next?”
Cee explained. “Well, the fabricator in the other room is right now creating your implant. It shouldn’t take long; are you ok being immobilized for the next hour or so?”
I thought about it, and honestly, I was still surprised I wasn’t panicking. “No, but I’m going to get really bored just laying here, do the Gearschilde have any good myths or stories?”
I knew I was fishing in an untapped pool that was guaranteed to have something. I wasn’t expecting my doctor to be gleeful at the thought though. “Oh blessed be you child, I am a surgeon priest, half the reason I am in this vocation is to tell stories. I take it you know nothing about Gearschilde mythology, or even our history?”
It was on my list of rabbit holes to get into, but instead I binged the rest of Prince Of The Stars and cried, it was nice. “No, but I would love to hear them.”
“Well if you want to, every Shel we have open services and brunch. But since you are new to Gearschilde mythology we should start with one of my favorites. The story of the Hopestrider.”
The ceiling lights dimmed, and the sterile operating room felt surprisingly cozy as I leaned my head back. Listening to Cee starting up the tale. “Our sect requires us to lead what can best be called ‘child technician classes’. Learning to take care of machines, which includes us by the start of adolescence, if not before. It’s a critical life skill, and teaching it is considered an important part of our religious studies.”
‘Cyberpunk VeggieTales’ Squirrel brain chittered.
No one wants your opinion squirrel brain. I thought back.

Cee’s story: Hope Strider

“Long ago our world was full of harsh life. The valleys were often filled with poisonous mists and deadly predators that could rip apart even the strongest of our people. The mountain kingdoms were brutal fiefdoms that sent many to their deaths mining precious metals from the dangerous wastes of the valleys. Drilling into the heart of the mountains provided the power necessary to purify water, and later, steam engines turned those fiefdoms into empires. Expanding into the wastes using the lowest class of people as its foundation.”
Cee paused for dramatic effect. “Then, everything changed.”
“The ground shook, and the mountain kingdoms erupted in fire and molten rock. Radioactive dust from these now volcanoes made the centers of civilization barren and deadly. Only the wasteland colonies in the poisonous mists provided any refuge, and so king and commoner alike huddled in the once disposable outposts of a ruined world. Our story starts a generation after the calamity with an unlucky child.”
I heard a ding, Cee stopped as the ceiling lights came up. “Oh dear, let me stop for a second to get the implant.”
I leaned back and thought about her nightmare world. When Cee returned, I didn’t even bother to open my eyes, too engrossed in the imagery of the story. “What happened to the child?”
I could hear the whirring as she started to work. Her voice I realized had taken a more scripted cadence. She must have automated her voice so she could focus. “In a metalworker’s home, a child was born with broken legs and brittle bones. It was common in those days for such a child to die that way. It was their first born and the parents did everything they could to save them. A surgeon was called. The child lost their legs, but kept their life.”
“The child lived in the workshop. Kept warm by the hearth’s fire, even unable to walk, they were curious. Day in and out, they watched their parents construct machines that helped the community make food, filter the air, and defend the homes from the starving, mutated, monsters that circled the fortress walls. The child felt helpless though. Only able to crawl within the confines of the home or be carried around like cargo about the maze-like town of winding stairs and narrow passageways.
“They spent much of their time learning, sitting near the hearth to keep warm, they did the careful work of filing gears and wheels needed to control what could be automated as each hand replaced was another that could be spent doing something else critical to keep the community alive. Still, the child wanted to do more. They could not deliver what they made, and had to rely on others to help them at every turn in life.”
“Little did the child know that in the hearth a machine spirit lived, getting by eating scrap metal that fell in and sleeping at night on the bed of embers. The machine spirit saw the child’s wish, an invention without form, and turned it into a dream for the child, since new machines would mean new machine spirits to play with.”
That night the child saw themselves flying over the cold gray landscape on a pair of machine legs. Traveling the dangerous paths to other towns, and giving the isolated towns hope and community. The child awoke with joy and crawled over to his workbench littered with scrap metal, now children….”
Cee stopped talking and her voice went back to an unscripted rhythm. “I just realized we can’t do the practical part of this story. In class each kid gets a hope strider stuffy with snaps to attach legs they make. We give them bits of copper. Show them how to bend and hammer it, and how to bond it by wrapping the joint in solder and then applying heat with a soldering iron heated in their own toy ‘hearth’ with a safety cover. Still we get a daily small burn or cut, but that in itself is a valuable lesson in tool safety.”
It sounded adorable in a weird, steampunk way. “Sounds fun, so, new legs?”
Cee got the que, as much as I loved the story, and the talk about kindergarten metal shop, I was still immobilized on the operating table. I heard surgical whirring, and the scripted voice came back. “Yes, the child works all night until they fit the new legs on, and for the first time stand up on their own! The parents are overjoyed as they watch them move about the house and that afternoon, with the help of an iron bar as a cane, they walk around their community by themselves.”
“However, it isn’t long before the legs start to see wear and tear, but the child persists, not wanting to stop and fix the creaking joints, until one day the legs stop working altogether and they fall down in a twisting staircase. Carried back to the workshop, they rest for days to heal before they are able to work again. Constructing a new set from the remains of the old. Now…”

Klein:

Cee stopped again, but this time she had moved away from me and was putting the now bloody surgical tools into a sanitizing system. “We're done! I am going to start removing the nerve blocks, so you’re going to be sore, but if things get too painful, let me know. Please, try not to move anything but your hands right now, even then I would advise against it.”
My whole body had that pins and needles feel and I tried to move my fingers, but it was sporadic and jerky. Cee distracted me by explaining my new implant. “So, this implant is very basic. It can only be requested to send diagnostic data. The implant only administers more healing serum at a safe, steady rate if, and only if, it doesn’t detect any in your bloodstream. There is an injection site with a color change circle around it. It uses standard go, caution, stop colors to let you know if it’s functioning. I want to wave your omni-pad over the site and check the diagnostics at least once a day. It should hopefully catch if something like this is happening again.”
I tried to not move as I felt my body twitch. My gut felt like I had been run over, repeatedly. I asked, “why didn’t my medical monitoring implant catch this?”
Cee explained. “That’s only good for basic vitals. Near universal indicators of life and activity such as heart rate and blood pressure. The new implant will be able to scan for elevated protein counts. So, if one of your other internal organs starts to malfunction you can get a more unambiguous message that I hope you won’t ignore before getting medivac’d through the city.”
I chuckled a little at that, and it hurt. “Ow, ok, no movement. I thought it was just a pulled muscle or something.”
Cee looked down at me sternly, and her voice took on a deeper, more authoritative tone. “Child, more than enough Gearschilde have died thinking they can just, push themselves past their organic parts failing, if you have a torn muscle that hurts after you’ve used healing gel, then it’s serious enough you need to come see me, or another xeno-doctor, immediately. That’s why I hope your new implant can fix things before it gets to that point.”
Cee brightened after that and went back to the explanation of my implant. “Now that I scolded you, there is a color changing circle over your implant’s location. It will change color when the healing serum runs low, or and will start to flash in color, and try to ping your omni-pad if it detects a malfunction. The implant uses a standard Shil’ implant autoinjector, and it will reject anything not meant for red blood standard biology, but still be careful, it’s not a perfect filtering system. Today I’m giving you a set of autoinjectors I want you to use throughout the week. It's fortunate that your implant’s primary function will speed up your recovery time.”
Ok, that’s cool to know, but.
‘What happened to Hopestrider?!’ Squirrel brain demanded.
“So, the story, what happens next?” I asked as Cee helped me sit up. My stomach still hurt, but the feeling was in the overworked muscle category rather than a gut punch.
Cee started to explain as I put on what was essentially gym clothes. Soft, baggy pants and shirt with easy pull away tabs if they needed to remove the clothes quickly for checkups and surgical intervention. “Well, we don’t have time to go over the Hope Strider as a story, or even a summary, but if you want to, my husband teaches the child technician class during open services on Shel, you could sit in and listen.
Right now, I will give you a family crafted picture book that tells the core story of Hope Strider growing up, and making their first delivery. After that it’s a loose selection of legends that are attributed to Hope Strider as they grow older and more accomplished, but while I get that book, I need you to speak to someone.”
Cee led me out of the operating room, and into a comfortable looking lounge where a… Hydrean was sitting in an Imperial business uniform reading an omni-pad. My brain pulled everything I knew of Hydreans out. A rabbit hole I had dug into one rainy Shel on the public information repositories.
She, they, single gendered I reminded myself, looked up and smiled at me calmly, mouth closed for politeness. Their skin was grass green with artful patches of bark on her face and neck, the result of cosmetic scarification. They looked human, or Shil’oid, but that was purposefully done. Even the somewhat standard looking ‘desert walker’ Hydreans normally had more, or less, limbs than standard. Biological modification was at the root of all Hydrean technology, ancient as the stone ax to other species.
I thought about how contentious Hydrean/Shil relationships were said to be. Their arid home planet was off limits to all but certified personnel who had been trained how to handle the dangerous mix of flora/fauna that instead of being different groups, was just a single taxonomy that had no distinction between predator and prey. With their complex biology, a Hydrean needed to undergo extensive body modification just to exist off their home world.
Cee left the room with a friendly goodbye and offered assistance “Hello Klein, I am Ka’tel. It’s wonderful to meet you. I am with the Imperial Child Assistance Division, or ICAD. My job is to help interspecies fosters and adoptions. How are you feeling today?”
I caught a glimpse of her teeth as they spoke. Triangular, and made of burnished metal meant to tear off chunks of animal, plant, or even rock, whole and let their stomachs’ mix of acids dissolve it into something the rest their body could use.
‘The agent in charge of your welfare is a plant/animal hybrid with a diet of ‘yes’, your doctor is a wholesome orange 40K mechanicus, and your crush is a were-lion, you are not ok .’ Squirrel brain remarked.
“I’m actually pretty good, despite the surgery, it’s actually a common issue for humans.” I said to Ka’tel, because my life was weird before the aliens, squirrel brain was just being a pessimistic asshole.
“Really? Do you know what caused it?” Ka’tel asked.
“It just, happens? Gets irritated or infected and then you need to get it removed.” I said nonchalantly. Ka’tel made a mark on her omni-pad.
“How did you know? It seems dangerous if it can happen suddenly, and you mentioned it before you passed out.” Ka’tel asked tone friendly and conversational.
“Oh, the side of your stomach hurts. I was hoping it was just a pulled muscle bec- Dammit!” I just remembered what happened before I woke up here.
“The raid game! Ko’tasa would have had to substitute for me and she’s not well balanced for our team mix.” I said with a exasperated sigh.
Ka’tel cocked their head to one side, but the tone in her voice was humorous. “You were willing to ignore a possible life-threatening condition for a game?”
I explained, though I felt idiotic now. “I couldn’t tell. I get sore muscles all the time from gym, and sparing, and even from the auxiliary work, honestly my commandant doesn’t really know where to put me sometimes. Last week I helped with road clearing for the new town to go up a few [miles] away, and the girls could barely keep up with me.”
Ka’tel seemed to be enjoying my rambling. “Sounds like you really get put to work.”
“Not really? The auxiliary is the only work I do, and if I wanted to stop I just, can. It’s not like I need to worry about buying food.” I knew what I was saying seemed strange while living in the Imperium.
It was the first hint that Ka’tel was controlling her expressions when she seemed more attentive and… relieved? “That’s delightful news to hear! Is there anything about your living situation that bothers you?”
I paused and thought about it, and really couldn’t see anything. “Not really?”
“Anything, or anyone, you miss from Earth?” Ka’tel asked, stressing that last bit, dropping a mental bomb on my head and I froze, mouth partly open with a half formed response. When was the last time I even thought about Earth as more than an abstract concept? It hadn’t been [six months] since I left but…
I didn’t feel anything.
The last year I lived on Earth, it was like being a ghost. I saw people, I even talked to people, but it was like a thick plate of glass all around me. Today I felt color, and life, and things, but that last year on Earth?
Like radio static.
I looked at Ka’tel, and their expression was one of controlled neutrality. Why was I not freaking out?
I had a sensation of the room spinning. I asked, “No, I don’t really feel anything about Earth, is that normal?”
“I don’t know Klein, by most sentient standards what you went through was unusual, and from what little I know about humans that isn’t propaganda, it’s unusual for humans as well. What I do know is right now you seem happy and healthy, and that’s my top priority.” Ka’tel said as they stood and offered me a stiff plastic card with their contact details on it.
“We will be chatting every other week to see how you are adjusting. I might ask to visit you at the youth auxiliary depot, the gym or at home. I really am glad to see you are doing just fine, but if you ever need a way out, that card has an emergency signal function, just pull the plastic tab.” Ka’tel told me, and was about to open the door before I spoke up.
“How should I refer to you?” I asked, and once they realized, Ka’tel gave me a genuine, toothed, smile that was both menacing and goofy at the same time.
“Most people don’t learn enough Hydrean biology to ask. Her, that’s how everyone in the office sees me, and it’s more convenient socially.” She said, opening the door to an anxious looking Itaro standing next to a serious Ruhal and Reqellia.
“I need to speak to you Ruhal, and Reqellia, you should join us for this conversation as well.” Ka’tel said as she ushered me out.
Cee led us into a gaming room with a long table on one side, and a set of couches facing the wall to wall display on the other. She handed me an overloaded plate of cookies with bottle of water, and stepped out, closing the door behind us. “Eat those, your stomach has healed, but it’s going to need calories to fuel the recovery.”
Only then did I realize I was salivating at the smell of warm sugar, and flour made of Kasan grain, if I was identifying the green color correctly. I put the plate of cookies on the table, and snarfed them as I sat down.
After swallowing the fourth cookie semi-whole, I looked up to see Itaro’s face fighting a war between impatient, apprehensive, and hopeful. I stopped, realizing what I was doing, and sipped some water to stall for time.
I was about to pull my omni-pad out from my pockets when Itaro suddenly put her hand out to stop me. “Wait! Klein, I need to tell you something…”
She was silent for a long moment, what was she worried about?
“I… Like you, as, I find you…. Attractive, and I may have gotten a little…. overprotective when you got hurt.” Itaro said, her voice stuttering.
‘Oh, that makes things easy.’ Squirrel brain was for once, right.
“I like you too.” I said as I leaned over and kissed her.

///// Author’s Commentary

Wow! I couldn’t find a good stopping point so I just kept writing and writing and… It turned into something over 5 thousand words. I spent the last day trying to figure out clear up a few parts. This week I have some time off! So there will probably be another chapter sooner rather than later.

A homeless teenager reaches out to the Shil’vati on first day of the invasion of Earth.
This is a rewrite of my original story ‘Loyalist’.
Credit to u/bluefishcake for writing the original SSB story.
Pizzaulostin who has been beta reading since the beginning.
and u/BruhMomentGEE
Credit to u/HollowShel for getting me started with this!
This story is based in the SSB universe.
Previous
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as always, comments are welcome.

Chapter 17:

Thanks to the author of Alien-Nation for editing this chapter!

Ruhal:

“We are sorry about the restraints. Your dossier has a security lock from the Office of Interior that I can’t even read, and all our supervisor could tell us was ‘interview with caution’,” one of the two agents explained.
I regarded my handcuffs with professional disapproval. They had a longer than regular chain for ambulatory movement and inmate processing, by the deep, I could even use them as garrote if needed. They had revealed the limits of their rank with that apology.
“No need to worry. I am sure this will be a formality in less than an hour,” I told them, if there was one thing that was in abundance on the planet Sky it was Interior and undercover commando trainees. I hoped this would probably be their most interesting case all month.
“So, would you care to explain how you are raising a human, that is also considered a military asset?” The agent inquired as she pulled out her slate.
“Of course, Klein surrendered himself and requested medical aid and refugee status. He was willing to answer essential questions regarding human culture that aided in liberating humanity into the Shil’vati Empire. He wouldn’t be safe on Earth anymore, and I mentioned that he was still important in writing my reports. If I had my slate, I could give you the relevant documentation,” I said in a conversational tone, without any of the emotions that weighed the story, and glossing over the specifics.
“No need. I have everything you submitted to the Interior, including his asset designation, the interrogation transcripts, and even his doctor’s contact info. To be honest with you it’s the only reason we haven’t interviewed you yet, even after a dozen calls about a ‘possible trafficked human’ since he arrived. Your information is corroborated with several other departments. The issue now is what the medivac scans found.” The agent pushed a slate towards me with medical notes bolded for emphasis ‘probable severe abuse’.
“The report shows a recent history of blunt force trauma, abrasions, and even muscle tearing, in short. It looks like the human has been systematically tortured for months. You also have recently requested restricted training armor in the human’s size.” The agent explained.
Ah, that was my mistake. I had been treating Klein as another child, just with some unique needs. It looks like there were other considerations, ones that I failed to see.
“I really do need my omni-slate to illustrate this, it’s on my desk right now if one of your assistants could get it?” I asked, hoping they got the suggestion to not leave me with only one interrogator in the room so they wouldn’t be graded too harshly.
They thankfully acquiesced without comment, and with my omni-slate in hand I pulled up the latest video of Klein practicing with me, the speed and brutality was difficult for me to sit through. Then, Klein pulled off his helmet seconds later, laughing in the rain. Unconcerned that, without armor, we could have just killed each other- I was grateful he had, else it might’ve been interpreted quite differently. “The bruising mostly from everyday participation at a Rakiri gym, and some remnants from before I got proper gear for baton practice. He heals extremely fast, and more so, he isn’t happy unless he exercises for at least an hour or two a day.”
I pulled up another video. Klein was sitting at the table bouncing his leg at an ever-increasing pace while trying to focus on a decently complex equation. He finally stood up and started pacing mouthing words as he skipped in time to an unheard rhythm.
“W-what’s he doing?” The agent asked, looking just a tad disturbed by the display of what seemed erratic behavior.
“A sort of dance while playing the song ‘a fine mesh net’ on his headphones. There was a monsoon that Shel weekend, and even I’m not crazy enough to fight in a thunderstorm like that. He does that around the house for an hour, and then finally settles in on a video game,” I explained to the agents, who were looking at me dubiously.
“So, you oversee an adolescent who is an intelligence asset, but also seems poorly fitted for Shil’vati life. Why the baton practice? Wouldn’t that make him even more dangerous, more of an outsider? Are you trying to sabotage his integration? Why not take him shopping, instead, or teach him beauty and self-care routines?” They were antagonizing. Countering every argument to see how I reacted. It seemed they could at least interrogate decently well.
“I hardly call a few quirks ‘poor fitting’. The baton practice is for obvious self-defense. Its intention is to make him dangerous,” I explained, letting the interviewers lead the conversation.
The back and forth went on for a while, but I presented a highlight reel of the last few months. Including a Rakiri gym video when Klein tried to flourish a wall climb and smashed his shoulder on the ledge while face planting into the mud.
The agents would not be arresting me today. They would need medical reports, and would require Klein, Hario, and Compassion Through Deeds to attest while truth scanned that these were sports injuries, and not some conspiracy to commit torture. We were also going to need to see an ICAD agent every two weeks for counseling. I had no idea what ICAD was, but I would investigate them later.
Finally, the agents appeared they were closing up the interview. I tried not to brace myself as they asked the complicated question. “One thing we need to know is, what is Klein to you? If he is just a crucial asset, then why haven’t you contacted a local volunteer family foster? Or was the military asset just a cover to find a male heir?”
I sighed, the truth wasn’t incriminating, but if I didn’t word it right, I would look like the worst sort of military tourist. “I had, originally, taken care of Klein as a key intelligence asset. Within that first week though, I had found that despite the decades of preparation, there wasn’t a process for someone to claim asylum as a child during first contact. He would be in military bureaucratic limbo without an advocate. We both know where he would end up.”
The room cooled by several degrees, which was a pity, I almost got the talkative agent to laugh at Klein’s antics. “Out of duty I investigated ways I could bring him home until I could find resources to place him in a stable situation with all the resources to help a xeno without a community. I found someone who was willing to help in exchange for reports on Klein’s adaptation to Shil’vati lifestyle. That’s Klein’s purpose as a military asset in my home.”
I continued. I was saying more on than I needed to, but if they did a follow up investigation later for some other incident, which was a when, not if, then I wanted this on record. “Klein has become part of this household though, despite, or maybe because, of his oddities. He may not be Shil’vati, but he seems to have integrated well. It’s why, while it was never my intention, when he is an adult, I will offer him full adoption, and title of home guardian.”
I watched the agents exchange looks, then the agent made a few taps on her slate. ‘Upper left, middle center, probably a message app’. I then listened for the telltale taps of a yes as a micro expression of a self-satisfied smile crossed the agent’s face. I decided to stop playing interviewee.
“So, you won the bet on if I would claim the human as my son, how long has that pool been building?” I asked folding my hands together.
The agent answered before she could think. “Two months… Wait!? How did you-”
The agent was cut off by the squawk of the slate’s speaker. “Agents you did well enough with the interview portion, however; you absolutely failed to secure the subject. Could you please illustrate to them why I stressed caution {petal of death’s veil}?”
The code name wasn’t one I had heard in decades, but I wasn’t going to snub an old handler. I kicked on my fast reaction mods to max speed and lunged over the table past the still sitting agents. I pirouetted and twisted the restraints into a loop as I brought them down over the left agent’s head and pulled back carefully, lightly touching the chain of my restraints around the neck of the agent before she could even react.
I kicked off my mods and caught my breath as time returned to normal. Both agents’ eyes went wide with shock as the one not about to be strangled tried to get away to pull out her weapon. “W-who are you!?”
“I’m going to slowly release you and put my hands up, is that everything you needed {hated old friend}?” I directed my question to the slate, using the code High Shil word to show I was playing along.
“More than enough. Agent! Holster your weapon and come back to the safe room. We need to go over security procedures,” the slate responded, and the very brief confrontation was over.
The agents walked out, and Siltan stomped in looking like she could bring about a thunderstorm by pure force of will. “We weren’t the only ones to get visits from the ‘majesty’s’ Interior today. Cee let me know that the Interior is also interrogated Reqellia as well.”
I now understood why these two rookies were here. It was a distraction for me. I grumbled as I picked up my slate and called Reqellia. Her face appeared a second later.
“By the Deep, it’s been a long day,” Reqellia breathed out as I heard a door slam, then she cursed some more.
“Tell me everything. Is Klein ok?” I asked.
“Cee says he’s fine and is waking him up. Klein might be getting a mod himself before she closes him up though because, oh- looks like it’s my day is going to get longer still. ICAD is here, and it’s a Hydrean in a Gearschilde clinic.” Reqellia hung up, and I stared at the phone in confusion.
It was time to find out what ICAD was.

Klein:

I blearily came to, as high powered, piercing white light flooded my half open eyes. I tried to move my arm to shield my face and found I couldn’t. Actually, I couldn't move or even feel anything from the neck down.
I started to panic as I turned my head, focusing on lettering on a terminal, tried to sigh, and felt what few muscles I could control turn to lead as I sank back on the medical bed. Thank the goddess, it was Shil and Gearschilde lettering on the slate and medical supplies.
“Good afternoon Klein, are you okay? Your heart rate spiked.” I heard Cee, or full name Compassion Through Deeds, speak and turned my head to see her. She wore a dark red lab coat and regarded me with unblinking cybernetic eyes. Most of her orange skin had been replaced with dark steel etched with stylized waves and swirls of silver. Her face still emoted in a pleasant smile, but had that uncanny valley look of unblemished synth skin. I looked down to see a dozen micro surgical tools still inside me.
I should have been screaming at the sight, but all I felt was relief and joy. “Yeah, I just worried for a half second that I had hallucinated the last few months and was actually on a back on Earth on some black-market operating table getting my kidney stolen.”
Cee was aghast. “Does that happen on Earth?”
I would shrug, but again, I couldn’t move, instead I responded. “Rumors of it happening, but I never knew anyone personally.”
Cee reassured me. “Well, good news Klein, you are on Sky, you are in a Gearschilde clinic where stealing vital organs is a legal, moral and religious crime of unrepentant severity. What I have done is remove your appendix, and let the sedatives wear off so we can discuss what you want in its place.”
“In place of my appendix? Why?” I asked, it wasn’t like I really needed the vestigial organ turn internal hand grenade.
“Customary in Gearschilde for surgery is to be about giving a better life than just taking from the body. So, any ideas of what would make your life better?”
I thought about the bruising, the constant having to put healing patches on, and the annoyance of doing so. I thought about the near fatality of almost blowing my appendix, and if something could have fixed the issue before it got out of hand. “What about a healing dispenser? I keep having to put on patches and gel at the end of the day, and if I miss a spot, I will pay for it later.”
Cee gave me a grateful expression. “That’s a perfect first implant. I was worried you were going to ask for something more aggressive. When I was your age, I got my first defensive mod, a retractable forearm knife. Of course, my next surgery was being stitched back together after accidently stabbing myself with it.”
I tried to chuckle, but I didn’t have control of my diaphragm for it. “So, what’s next?”
Cee explained. “Well, the fabricator in the other room is right now creating your implant. It shouldn’t take long; are you ok being immobilized for the next hour or so?”
I thought about it, and honestly, I was still surprised I wasn’t panicking. “No, but I’m going to get really bored just laying here, do the Gearschilde have any good myths or stories?”
I knew I was fishing in an untapped pool that was guaranteed to have something. I wasn’t expecting my doctor to be gleeful at the thought though. “Oh blessed be you child, I am a surgeon priest, half the reason I am in this vocation is to tell stories. I take it you know nothing about Gearschilde mythology, or even our history?”
It was on my list of rabbit holes to get into, but instead I binged the rest of Prince Of The Stars and cried, it was nice. “No, but I would love to hear them.”
“Well if you want to, every Shel we have open services and brunch. But since you are new to Gearschilde mythology we should start with one of my favorites. The story of the Hopestrider.”
The ceiling lights dimmed, and the sterile operating room felt surprisingly cozy as I leaned my head back. Listening to Cee starting up the tale. “Our sect requires us to lead what can best be called ‘child technician classes’. Learning to take care of machines, which includes us by the start of adolescence, if not before. It’s a critical life skill, and teaching it is considered an important part of our religious studies.”
‘Cyberpunk VeggieTales’ Squirrel brain chittered.
No one wants your opinion squirrel brain. I thought back.

Cee’s story: Hope Strider

“Long ago our world was full of harsh life. The valleys were often filled with poisonous mists and deadly predators that could rip apart even the strongest of our people. The mountain kingdoms were brutal fiefdoms that sent many to their deaths mining precious metals from the dangerous wastes of the valleys. Drilling into the heart of the mountains provided the power necessary to purify water, and later, steam engines turned those fiefdoms into empires. Expanding into the wastes using the lowest class of people as its foundation.”
Cee paused for dramatic effect. “Then, everything changed.”
“The ground shook, and the mountain kingdoms erupted in fire and molten rock. Radioactive dust from these now volcanoes made the centers of civilization barren and deadly. Only the wasteland colonies in the poisonous mists provided any refuge, and so king and commoner alike huddled in the once disposable outposts of a ruined world. Our story starts a generation after the calamity with an unlucky child.”
I heard a ding, Cee stopped as the ceiling lights came up. “Oh dear, let me stop for a second to get the implant.”
I leaned back and thought about her nightmare world. When Cee returned, I didn’t even bother to open my eyes, too engrossed in the imagery of the story. “What happened to the child?”
I could hear the whirring as she started to work. Her voice I realized had taken a more scripted cadence. She must have automated her voice so she could focus. “In a metalworker’s home, a child was born with broken legs and brittle bones. It was common in those days for such a child to die that way. It was their first born and the parents did everything they could to save them. A surgeon was called. The child lost their legs, but kept their life.”
“The child lived in the workshop. Kept warm by the hearth’s fire, even unable to walk, they were curious. Day in and out, they watched their parents construct machines that helped the community make food, filter the air, and defend the homes from the starving, mutated, monsters that circled the fortress walls. The child felt helpless though. Only able to crawl within the confines of the home or be carried around like cargo about the maze-like town of winding stairs and narrow passageways.
“They spent much of their time learning, sitting near the hearth to keep warm, they did the careful work of filing gears and wheels needed to control what could be automated as each hand replaced was another that could be spent doing something else critical to keep the community alive. Still, the child wanted to do more. They could not deliver what they made, and had to rely on others to help them at every turn in life.”
“Little did the child know that in the hearth a machine spirit lived, getting by eating scrap metal that fell in and sleeping at night on the bed of embers. The machine spirit saw the child’s wish, an invention without form, and turned it into a dream for the child, since new machines would mean new machine spirits to play with.”
That night the child saw themselves flying over the cold gray landscape on a pair of machine legs. Traveling the dangerous paths to other towns, and giving the isolated towns hope and community. The child awoke with joy and crawled over to his workbench littered with scrap metal, now children….”
Cee stopped talking and her voice went back to an unscripted rhythm. “I just realized we can’t do the practical part of this story. In class each kid gets a hope strider stuffy with snaps to attach legs they make. We give them bits of copper. Show them how to bend and hammer it, and how to bond it by wrapping the joint in solder and then applying heat with a soldering iron heated in their own toy ‘hearth’ with a safety cover. Still we get a daily small burn or cut, but that in itself is a valuable lesson in tool safety.”
It sounded adorable in a weird, steampunk way. “Sounds fun, so, new legs?”
Cee got the que, as much as I loved the story, and the talk about kindergarten metal shop, I was still immobilized on the operating table. I heard surgical whirring, and the scripted voice came back. “Yes, the child works all night until they fit the new legs on, and for the first time stand up on their own! The parents are overjoyed as they watch them move about the house and that afternoon, with the help of an iron bar as a cane, they walk around their community by themselves.”
“However, it isn’t long before the legs start to see wear and tear, but the child persists, not wanting to stop and fix the creaking joints, until one day the legs stop working altogether and they fall down in a twisting staircase. Carried back to the workshop, they rest for days to heal before they are able to work again. Constructing a new set from the remains of the old. Now…”

Klein:

Cee stopped again, but this time she had moved away from me and was putting the now bloody surgical tools into a sanitizing system. “We're done! I am going to start removing the nerve blocks, so you’re going to be sore, but if things get too painful, let me know. Please, try not to move anything but your hands right now, even then I would advise against it.”
My whole body had that pins and needles feel and I tried to move my fingers, but it was sporadic and jerky. Cee distracted me by explaining my new implant. “So, this implant is very basic. It can only be requested to send diagnostic data. The implant only administers more healing serum at a safe, steady rate if, and only if, it doesn’t detect any in your bloodstream. There is an injection site with a color change circle around it. It uses standard go, caution, stop colors to let you know if it’s functioning. I want to wave your omni-pad over the site and check the diagnostics at least once a day. It should hopefully catch if something like this is happening again.”
I tried to not move as I felt my body twitch. My gut felt like I had been run over, repeatedly. I asked, “why didn’t my medical monitoring implant catch this?”
Cee explained. “That’s only good for basic vitals. Near universal indicators of life and activity such as heart rate and blood pressure. The new implant will be able to scan for elevated protein counts. So, if one of your other internal organs starts to malfunction you can get a more unambiguous message that I hope you won’t ignore before getting medivac’d through the city.”
I chuckled a little at that, and it hurt. “Ow, ok, no movement. I thought it was just a pulled muscle or something.”
Cee looked down at me sternly, and her voice took on a deeper, more authoritative tone. “Child, more than enough Gearschilde have died thinking they can just, push themselves past their organic parts failing, if you have a torn muscle that hurts after you’ve used healing gel, then it’s serious enough you need to come see me, or another xeno-doctor, immediately. That’s why I hope your new implant can fix things before it gets to that point.”
Cee brightened after that and went back to the explanation of my implant. “Now that I scolded you, there is a color changing circle over your implant’s location. It will change color when the healing serum runs low, or and will start to flash in color, and try to ping your omni-pad if it detects a malfunction. The implant uses a standard Shil’ implant autoinjector, and it will reject anything not meant for red blood standard biology, but still be careful, it’s not a perfect filtering system. Today I’m giving you a set of autoinjectors I want you to use throughout the week. It's fortunate that your implant’s primary function will speed up your recovery time.”
Ok, that’s cool to know, but.
‘What happened to Hopestrider?!’ Squirrel brain demanded.
“So, the story, what happens next?” I asked as Cee helped me sit up. My stomach still hurt, but the feeling was in the overworked muscle category rather than a gut punch.
Cee started to explain as I put on what was essentially gym clothes. Soft, baggy pants and shirt with easy pull away tabs if they needed to remove the clothes quickly for checkups and surgical intervention. “Well, we don’t have time to go over the Hope Strider as a story, or even a summary, but if you want to, my husband teaches the child technician class during open services on Shel, you could sit in and listen.
Right now, I will give you a family crafted picture book that tells the core story of Hope Strider growing up, and making their first delivery. After that it’s a loose selection of legends that are attributed to Hope Strider as they grow older and more accomplished, but while I get that book, I need you to speak to someone.”
Cee led me out of the operating room, and into a comfortable looking lounge where a… Hydrean was sitting in an Imperial business uniform reading an omni-pad. My brain pulled everything I knew of Hydreans out. A rabbit hole I had dug into one rainy Shel on the public information repositories.
She, they, single gendered I reminded myself, looked up and smiled at me calmly, mouth closed for politeness. Their skin was grass green with artful patches of bark on her face and neck, the result of cosmetic scarification. They looked human, or Shil’oid, but that was purposefully done. Even the somewhat standard looking ‘desert walker’ Hydreans normally had more, or less, limbs than standard. Biological modification was at the root of all Hydrean technology, ancient as the stone ax to other species.
I thought about how contentious Hydrean/Shil relationships were said to be. Their arid home planet was off limits to all but certified personnel who had been trained how to handle the dangerous mix of flora/fauna that instead of being different groups, was just a single taxonomy that had no distinction between predator and prey. With their complex biology, a Hydrean needed to undergo extensive body modification just to exist off their home world.
Cee left the room with a friendly goodbye and offered assistance “Hello Klein, I am Ka’tel. It’s wonderful to meet you. I am with the Imperial Child Assistance Division, or ICAD. My job is to help interspecies fosters and adoptions. How are you feeling today?”
I caught a glimpse of her teeth as they spoke. Triangular, and made of burnished metal meant to tear off chunks of animal, plant, or even rock, whole and let their stomachs’ mix of acids dissolve it into something the rest their body could use.
‘The agent in charge of your welfare is a plant/animal hybrid with a diet of ‘yes’, your doctor is a wholesome orange 40K mechanicus, and your crush is a were-lion, you are not ok .’ Squirrel brain remarked.
“I’m actually pretty good, despite the surgery, it’s actually a common issue for humans.” I said to Ka’tel, because my life was weird before the aliens, squirrel brain was just being a pessimistic asshole.
“Really? Do you know what caused it?” Ka’tel asked.
“It just, happens? Gets irritated or infected and then you need to get it removed.” I said nonchalantly. Ka’tel made a mark on her omni-pad.
“How did you know? It seems dangerous if it can happen suddenly, and you mentioned it before you passed out.” Ka’tel asked tone friendly and conversational.
“Oh, the side of your stomach hurts. I was hoping it was just a pulled muscle bec- Dammit!” I just remembered what happened before I woke up here.
“The raid game! Ko’tasa would have had to substitute for me and she’s not well balanced for our team mix.” I said with a exasperated sigh.
Ka’tel cocked their head to one side, but the tone in her voice was humorous. “You were willing to ignore a possible life-threatening condition for a game?”
I explained, though I felt idiotic now. “I couldn’t tell. I get sore muscles all the time from gym, and sparing, and even from the auxiliary work, honestly my commandant doesn’t really know where to put me sometimes. Last week I helped with road clearing for the new town to go up a few [miles] away, and the girls could barely keep up with me.”
Ka’tel seemed to be enjoying my rambling. “Sounds like you really get put to work.”
“Not really? The auxiliary is the only work I do, and if I wanted to stop I just, can. It’s not like I need to worry about buying food.” I knew what I was saying seemed strange while living in the Imperium.
It was the first hint that Ka’tel was controlling her expressions when she seemed more attentive and… relieved? “That’s delightful news to hear! Is there anything about your living situation that bothers you?”
I paused and thought about it, and really couldn’t see anything. “Not really?”
“Anything, or anyone, you miss from Earth?” Ka’tel asked, stressing that last bit, dropping a mental bomb on my head and I froze, mouth partly open with a half formed response. When was the last time I even thought about Earth as more than an abstract concept? It hadn’t been [six months] since I left but…
I didn’t feel anything.
The last year I lived on Earth, it was like being a ghost. I saw people, I even talked to people, but it was like a thick plate of glass all around me. Today I felt color, and life, and things, but that last year on Earth?
Like radio static.
I looked at Ka’tel, and their expression was one of controlled neutrality. Why was I not freaking out?
I had a sensation of the room spinning. I asked, “No, I don’t really feel anything about Earth, is that normal?”
“I don’t know Klein, by most sentient standards what you went through was unusual, and from what little I know about humans that isn’t propaganda, it’s unusual for humans as well. What I do know is right now you seem happy and healthy, and that’s my top priority.” Ka’tel said as they stood and offered me a stiff plastic card with their contact details on it.
“We will be chatting every other week to see how you are adjusting. I might ask to visit you at the youth auxiliary depot, the gym or at home. I really am glad to see you are doing just fine, but if you ever need a way out, that card has an emergency signal function, just pull the plastic tab.” Ka’tel told me, and was about to open the door before I spoke up.
“How should I refer to you?” I asked, and once they realized, Ka’tel gave me a genuine, toothed, smile that was both menacing and goofy at the same time.
“Most people don’t learn enough Hydrean biology to ask. Her, that’s how everyone in the office sees me, and it’s more convenient socially.” She said, opening the door to an anxious looking Itaro standing next to a serious Ruhal and Reqellia.
“I need to speak to you Ruhal, and Reqellia, you should join us for this conversation as well.” Ka’tel said as she ushered me out.
Cee led us into a gaming room with a long table on one side, and a set of couches facing the wall to wall display on the other. She handed me an overloaded plate of cookies with bottle of water, and stepped out, closing the door behind us. “Eat those, your stomach has healed, but it’s going to need calories to fuel the recovery.”
Only then did I realize I was salivating at the smell of warm sugar, and flour made of Kasan grain, if I was identifying the green color correctly. I put the plate of cookies on the table, and snarfed them as I sat down.
After swallowing the fourth cookie semi-whole, I looked up to see Itaro’s face fighting a war between impatient, apprehensive, and hopeful. I stopped, realizing what I was doing, and sipped some water to stall for time.
I was about to pull my omni-pad out from my pockets when Itaro suddenly put her hand out to stop me. “Wait! Klein, I need to tell you something…”
She was silent for a long moment, what was she worried about?
“I… Like you, as, I find you…. Attractive, and I may have gotten a little…. overprotective when you got hurt.” Itaro said, her voice stuttering.
‘Oh, that makes things easy.’ Squirrel brain was for once, right.
“I like you too.” I said as I leaned over and kissed her.

///// Author’s Commentary

Wow! I couldn’t find a good stopping point so I just kept writing and writing and… It turned into something over 5 thousand words. I spent the last day trying to figure out clear up a few parts. This week I have some time off! So there will probably be another chapter sooner rather than later.

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

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DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

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Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

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While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

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Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

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Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

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Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

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Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

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On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

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Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

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I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

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DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

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April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks. :)