642 locust street mount vernon
Went to the Jetty Road Brighton Street party today to check out the marine inspired Deep Thinkers art exhibition - it was really cool.
2023.04.01 09:14 Free_the_Radical Went to the Jetty Road Brighton Street party today to check out the marine inspired Deep Thinkers art exhibition - it was really cool.
The street party was vibrant, but I was really there to check out Deep Thinkers. Was great to meet adelaide artist and curator Azzurro and they have put so much effort into putting the whole thing together. They even custom painted the walls of the Alimentary cafe to match the hangings and included the artist details on the wall.
Met Jade Mars one of the artists and her work was awesome, even used augmented reality where you hold your phone up to the artwork and take a shot on insta and it animates the work on your phone, totally awesome.
The diverse range of works was great, and are a credit to the artists involved.
The street party was cool and bumped into a friend or two, but my main reason for going was Deep Thinkers and the hour each way on public transport was worth it.
The Mount Lofty Jetty artwork made me giggle, but all of the works were inspiring.
There is a virtual exhibition on the link-tree so you can see the artwork online.
https://linktr.ee/deepthinkers
Alimentary are open tonight if you want to pop down to check it out and the Deep Thinkers exhibition is doing a one nighter at the Marine Discovery Centre, Henley Beach next Friday.
Was a great adventure :) 5 out of 5 Leafy Sea Dragons.
submitted by Free_the_Radical to Adelaide [link] [comments]
Met Jade Mars one of the artists and her work was awesome, even used augmented reality where you hold your phone up to the artwork and take a shot on insta and it animates the work on your phone, totally awesome.
The diverse range of works was great, and are a credit to the artists involved.
The street party was cool and bumped into a friend or two, but my main reason for going was Deep Thinkers and the hour each way on public transport was worth it.
The Mount Lofty Jetty artwork made me giggle, but all of the works were inspiring.
There is a virtual exhibition on the link-tree so you can see the artwork online.
https://linktr.ee/deepthinkers
Alimentary are open tonight if you want to pop down to check it out and the Deep Thinkers exhibition is doing a one nighter at the Marine Discovery Centre, Henley Beach next Friday.
Was a great adventure :) 5 out of 5 Leafy Sea Dragons.
2023.04.01 04:27 endersgame69 Our Wandering Time C4
They say you never know what to expect when you’re in a new place. Meeting dogpeople, catpeople, racoonpeople in lab coats and suits were all unexpected things. Finding myself plus one pair of boobs was another. But you know something?
In a way, those are all pretty small. Thanks to my genre savviness, the idea of magic and interworld travel wasn’t too shocking. I mean, I’m not saying I expected it or anything. But if you’re at least familiar with the concept, then it’s not hard to deal with.
But what really shocked me was my first step outside. I touched the panel and watched the segments of the door rise up, then stepped outside. Overhead I heard a wild scream and nigh jumped out of my skin. All of my tails bristled and my head snapped straight up. A wyvern with scales painted in a bright yellow pattern. I have to assume that since I was able to read the word ‘Airferry’ and I hadn’t had an issue with the letters or numbers from before, that the transition process gave me the necessary access to communication in this world.
But it sure didn’t give me the means to cope with the shock! The wyvern was ridden by a little yellow skinned norm wearing leather clothing and a pair of goggles secured to a leather cap on his head and strapped under his chin. From the wyvern’s body hung what might best be described as a long rowboat, but beneath the boat…or maybe barge? Was affixed a set of thick springs. It swayed a little, and the air picked up and carried their scarves and hair to trail behind them. But they too wore goggles on their faces to compensate for the speed of the air.
Far above I saw an airship. Literally. A god damn ship. Right down to the keel and rudder, secured by what I hope were metal cables that were secured to a net which bulged as it was pressed by a massive balloon longer than the ship itself.
The street was fairly ordinary, simple cobblestone, but I did not expect to see a pegasus and an eight legged sleipnir hitched outside of a round domed building. In the street, elves and humans mingled freely with each other, seemingly not even noticing their differences. In the stories I knew, hostility was the norm, but this place seemed rather cosmopolitan about everything.
A dwarf cobbler in what I can only describe as ‘old timey’ heavy boots and overalls made of canvas and wearing goggles with multiple lenses that were raised out of position, was looking up at a wolfman in a suit with a puffy snow white kerchief beneath his jaw bristled and growled, enduring the thunderous dwarven shout, “I don’t care what yew offerah me! Ah cannae finish when yew wawnt! Greatness takes time yah damn furry fool!”
People holding swords and wearing bits and pieces of armor were as common as scales on a fish, their shouting and noise wasn’t the only thing. A woman with long high elven ears was leaning out of the upper floor of a shop and hawking wares, “Fresh batch’a potions! Heal’n or skin peel’n, if you’ve got the gold, our potions will hold!”
‘At least jingles and slogans are the same in every world.’ I thought while my eyes bugged out of my head. The buildings were not the usual blocky boring brick squares I was used to. The buildings were of a spiral shape with rail lines that wove and curved around them left and right, and on the rails were glowing ‘miniature trains’. No. Trains is the wrong word. They were more like roller coaster cars, simple open cars in which people were riding to get from one place to another.
Bridges that crossed from one floor of a building to another were not metal, but rather they were vines that grew down from pointy green roofs, and they did not raise, they unrolled from one another and lowered or rose out of the way of the little chugging cars before binding together again, including little green armrests for safety or comfort. Strangely, there was no smoke from the engine car, and even stranger, it was pushing rather than pulling.
The buildings themselves were arranged in various designs from spiral shapes with winding staircases and doors every dozen paces or so going up, to ‘stacks’ of irregular blocks where each cube had a bridge between itself and its neighbor, with zigzag pattern steps going up from one floor to the next.
All those on the ground jostled together, though they made a clear path for those on horseback, or flowed seamlessly out of the way of landing air ferries, and I never saw any indication that the wyverns landed close to people. With their ferocious looking claws and oversized mouths with sharp teeth, I expected it could eat a child whole and a grown child… a grown up, in two or three bites.
‘Thank you internet, for you have blessed me with weebness that has translated into genre savviness, that I may live and not die of goddamn shock in the face of my long dreamt of transition to a new world full of adventure.’ I uttered a weebs prayer that I recalled from an anime group, and it felt good.
I took a deep breath, inhaling the air. It wasn’t as crisp as I hoped it might be. There was a definite odor of smoke, but it was more like burning wood than foul coal, and it was touched with the scent of pastries and fresh baked goods.
Sweets are a bit of a weakness of mine, so I scrapped my first plan to go join the adventurer’s guild and placed my hand on my slate, then I said, “Show me the way to a bakery.” I watched as a streetmap faded into view like a person stepping out of a thick fog, gradually becoming clear.
I was staring down at the map indicator, which was really nothing more than building shapes and a road, nothing intricate, when I decided to try an experiment. I was represented by a little green dot, but there was no color elsewhere. Just little black lines. “Increase realism by one hundred percent.” I instructed it, and the top down view of the city grew exponentially more complicated. I could see the rooftops and the many people passing by, at least the tops of their heads. I still had a black line pulsing on the screen as my guide, but… “Damn. If things worked this well back home then people could just never look up from their devices.” I mumbled and said, “Remove people.”
For a moment I panicked, ‘What if that killed everybody?!’ My head snapped up to look at the street. Everybody was alive. I gave a heavy sigh of relief and looked down, the realistic street and rooftops were there, but the ‘people’ and their mounts, thankfully, were gone.
You know, if I had to pick the seminal moment of this whole… whatever this is, it wouldn’t be showing up when and where I did. It wouldn’t be getting my slate or leaving the doctor behind. It wouldn’t even be stepping out the door of the building.
It would be this. The world was ‘real’ now, you know? I was about to actually move among the general population, all the dangers and experiences I wanted, were starting with ‘this’ one step more than any other.
It might seem strange to think of my life in genre specific terms, like a video game or an anime, manga, or light novel series. And I admit, it probably wasn’t my best idea. What made me realize it wasn’t the wisest thing was my epic trip to the bakery which, according to the map, was one block away.
What danger did I face?
What plot hook caught my eye?
Was it a mugging by a stranger?
Did I see a pair of pretty girls being mugged in an alley in need of some sexy rescuing?
Did a stranger grab me and whisper in a hushed and raspy voice, “I have been told by the gods that you would come, follow me, they’re looking for you…”
Or perhaps a military or bandit raid on the city that gave me a chance to be a heroine?
Hell no.
Nothing freaking happened.
Nobody stared at me with wonder and awe, I wasn’t totally unique, I saw two other kitsunes in just that short distance. I just tried not to bump into too many people, though I seemed to be the only one in the crowd like that. Pedestrians bumped shoulders a lot, without so much as an apology.
I quickly realized that it was so impossible not to, that there was no reason to apologize for doing it.
So I got over that fairly quickly, but I was mildly annoyed of the unfortunate reminder that I’d actually have to put in the work to have an adventure. There was no call to it for me, not that I really saw. ‘Summoned as a Janitor’ was the worst title I could possibly think of, and if I ever wrote this down, I’d be damned if I’d give my life story that title.
Anyway, the bakery… I really didn’t need directions for it after a little while as the sweet and savory scents tickled my nose before I was halfway there. I just leaned forward, following the tantalizing smell and soon found myself staring into the window of a shop. A line of baked goods, breads sprinkled with sugar, little green cakes with what I had to conclude was some kind of dark honey, and some little round crispy things with what was definitely melted chocolate, all caught my eye.
The door to the shop was open and I hastened within, a portly orc was wearing a giant oversized chef’s hat with a bronze clock face on it. One look and I knew it wasn’t decoration.
Whatever it was counting down for, it reached it before I reached the counter. It made a quick, ‘ding!’ noise and he said, “S’cuze me.” And disappeared into the back. He was a pretty standard orc, with thick muscled arms, greenish body and tusks for teeth below a porcine nose. His one distinguishing feature was that he was quite fat.
‘That’s how I know I can trust him. He’s eating his own work.’ I concluded and looked around. While what I saw of the city could be described as at least somewhat ‘dirty’ the shop itself was surprisingly clean. The racks were wood, except for two on the far wall which were of silver with even fancier items than on the wood, and I realized that probably represented a higher cost. The deeper you went inside, the more you paid.
“Fresh baked rumbldumplins!” He all but shouted, holding out the hot tray with his bare hands. Orcs were notoriously thick skinned, it was no surprise that his hands weren’t burning, but it was still weird to see one as a baker. He tilted it so I could see, and a little round pastry with an unfamiliar flower shaped ‘fruit’ I think? Sat in the center dripping with liquid sugar from what passed for leaves, landing on the flakey crust and drizzling down to the pan.
“You buy fresh, I give you discount on buying the old.” He said and his deepset amber eyes gave me a conspiratorial wink. “You my first customer of the day, so what you say eh?” He boomed at me.
I noticed the clock on his hat was ticking down again, and wondered what else was there.
“Yes. I say yes!” The rumbledumplins smelled great and looked even better.
“You make a good deal, I give you half off, eh? On any of the old but the sanziberry pie. We short of sanziberries.” He said and grabbed a newspaper from behind his counter.
“Why is that?” I asked. ‘Is this a plot hook? A quest beginning? Alright it’s a fetch quest, but still, it’d be my first!’ I could feel the excitement building and my heart starting to race.
“Oh, contract dispute. The bastards want triple the creds for the same thing. So I’m getting a new supplier and it takes time to get started. Fool too! Big fool. Sanziberries last a long time. Pie stays fresh. Do something like that with rumbleberries and I might have to pay first. Big fool.” He repeated with a shake of his big round head. “How many you want?”
The transaction was completed in a heartbeat, just like the doctor said. I paid ten creds and walked out with six rumbledumplings and a dozen chocolate crisps all wrapped up in old newspapers. I munched on one when I stood outside the shop.
“So much for a plot hook.” I mumbled while my eyes popped at the rich flavor melting on my tongue. When I realized at that moment, at the completion of my first ‘journey’ that literally not a goddamn thing had happened, or would happen, or could happen in the way it did in games and books and visual media, I snapped back to reality.
“I’m not getting a call to adventure. So… I’m going to have to pay it a visit instead.” I said, then swallowed my first purchase, and stowed the remainder under my arm for a moment. I touched my slate and said, “Show me to the Adventurer’s Guild.”
submitted by endersgame69 to TheWorldMaker [link] [comments]
In a way, those are all pretty small. Thanks to my genre savviness, the idea of magic and interworld travel wasn’t too shocking. I mean, I’m not saying I expected it or anything. But if you’re at least familiar with the concept, then it’s not hard to deal with.
But what really shocked me was my first step outside. I touched the panel and watched the segments of the door rise up, then stepped outside. Overhead I heard a wild scream and nigh jumped out of my skin. All of my tails bristled and my head snapped straight up. A wyvern with scales painted in a bright yellow pattern. I have to assume that since I was able to read the word ‘Airferry’ and I hadn’t had an issue with the letters or numbers from before, that the transition process gave me the necessary access to communication in this world.
But it sure didn’t give me the means to cope with the shock! The wyvern was ridden by a little yellow skinned norm wearing leather clothing and a pair of goggles secured to a leather cap on his head and strapped under his chin. From the wyvern’s body hung what might best be described as a long rowboat, but beneath the boat…or maybe barge? Was affixed a set of thick springs. It swayed a little, and the air picked up and carried their scarves and hair to trail behind them. But they too wore goggles on their faces to compensate for the speed of the air.
Far above I saw an airship. Literally. A god damn ship. Right down to the keel and rudder, secured by what I hope were metal cables that were secured to a net which bulged as it was pressed by a massive balloon longer than the ship itself.
The street was fairly ordinary, simple cobblestone, but I did not expect to see a pegasus and an eight legged sleipnir hitched outside of a round domed building. In the street, elves and humans mingled freely with each other, seemingly not even noticing their differences. In the stories I knew, hostility was the norm, but this place seemed rather cosmopolitan about everything.
A dwarf cobbler in what I can only describe as ‘old timey’ heavy boots and overalls made of canvas and wearing goggles with multiple lenses that were raised out of position, was looking up at a wolfman in a suit with a puffy snow white kerchief beneath his jaw bristled and growled, enduring the thunderous dwarven shout, “I don’t care what yew offerah me! Ah cannae finish when yew wawnt! Greatness takes time yah damn furry fool!”
People holding swords and wearing bits and pieces of armor were as common as scales on a fish, their shouting and noise wasn’t the only thing. A woman with long high elven ears was leaning out of the upper floor of a shop and hawking wares, “Fresh batch’a potions! Heal’n or skin peel’n, if you’ve got the gold, our potions will hold!”
‘At least jingles and slogans are the same in every world.’ I thought while my eyes bugged out of my head. The buildings were not the usual blocky boring brick squares I was used to. The buildings were of a spiral shape with rail lines that wove and curved around them left and right, and on the rails were glowing ‘miniature trains’. No. Trains is the wrong word. They were more like roller coaster cars, simple open cars in which people were riding to get from one place to another.
Bridges that crossed from one floor of a building to another were not metal, but rather they were vines that grew down from pointy green roofs, and they did not raise, they unrolled from one another and lowered or rose out of the way of the little chugging cars before binding together again, including little green armrests for safety or comfort. Strangely, there was no smoke from the engine car, and even stranger, it was pushing rather than pulling.
The buildings themselves were arranged in various designs from spiral shapes with winding staircases and doors every dozen paces or so going up, to ‘stacks’ of irregular blocks where each cube had a bridge between itself and its neighbor, with zigzag pattern steps going up from one floor to the next.
All those on the ground jostled together, though they made a clear path for those on horseback, or flowed seamlessly out of the way of landing air ferries, and I never saw any indication that the wyverns landed close to people. With their ferocious looking claws and oversized mouths with sharp teeth, I expected it could eat a child whole and a grown child… a grown up, in two or three bites.
‘Thank you internet, for you have blessed me with weebness that has translated into genre savviness, that I may live and not die of goddamn shock in the face of my long dreamt of transition to a new world full of adventure.’ I uttered a weebs prayer that I recalled from an anime group, and it felt good.
I took a deep breath, inhaling the air. It wasn’t as crisp as I hoped it might be. There was a definite odor of smoke, but it was more like burning wood than foul coal, and it was touched with the scent of pastries and fresh baked goods.
Sweets are a bit of a weakness of mine, so I scrapped my first plan to go join the adventurer’s guild and placed my hand on my slate, then I said, “Show me the way to a bakery.” I watched as a streetmap faded into view like a person stepping out of a thick fog, gradually becoming clear.
I was staring down at the map indicator, which was really nothing more than building shapes and a road, nothing intricate, when I decided to try an experiment. I was represented by a little green dot, but there was no color elsewhere. Just little black lines. “Increase realism by one hundred percent.” I instructed it, and the top down view of the city grew exponentially more complicated. I could see the rooftops and the many people passing by, at least the tops of their heads. I still had a black line pulsing on the screen as my guide, but… “Damn. If things worked this well back home then people could just never look up from their devices.” I mumbled and said, “Remove people.”
For a moment I panicked, ‘What if that killed everybody?!’ My head snapped up to look at the street. Everybody was alive. I gave a heavy sigh of relief and looked down, the realistic street and rooftops were there, but the ‘people’ and their mounts, thankfully, were gone.
You know, if I had to pick the seminal moment of this whole… whatever this is, it wouldn’t be showing up when and where I did. It wouldn’t be getting my slate or leaving the doctor behind. It wouldn’t even be stepping out the door of the building.
It would be this. The world was ‘real’ now, you know? I was about to actually move among the general population, all the dangers and experiences I wanted, were starting with ‘this’ one step more than any other.
It might seem strange to think of my life in genre specific terms, like a video game or an anime, manga, or light novel series. And I admit, it probably wasn’t my best idea. What made me realize it wasn’t the wisest thing was my epic trip to the bakery which, according to the map, was one block away.
What danger did I face?
What plot hook caught my eye?
Was it a mugging by a stranger?
Did I see a pair of pretty girls being mugged in an alley in need of some sexy rescuing?
Did a stranger grab me and whisper in a hushed and raspy voice, “I have been told by the gods that you would come, follow me, they’re looking for you…”
Or perhaps a military or bandit raid on the city that gave me a chance to be a heroine?
Hell no.
Nothing freaking happened.
Nobody stared at me with wonder and awe, I wasn’t totally unique, I saw two other kitsunes in just that short distance. I just tried not to bump into too many people, though I seemed to be the only one in the crowd like that. Pedestrians bumped shoulders a lot, without so much as an apology.
I quickly realized that it was so impossible not to, that there was no reason to apologize for doing it.
So I got over that fairly quickly, but I was mildly annoyed of the unfortunate reminder that I’d actually have to put in the work to have an adventure. There was no call to it for me, not that I really saw. ‘Summoned as a Janitor’ was the worst title I could possibly think of, and if I ever wrote this down, I’d be damned if I’d give my life story that title.
Anyway, the bakery… I really didn’t need directions for it after a little while as the sweet and savory scents tickled my nose before I was halfway there. I just leaned forward, following the tantalizing smell and soon found myself staring into the window of a shop. A line of baked goods, breads sprinkled with sugar, little green cakes with what I had to conclude was some kind of dark honey, and some little round crispy things with what was definitely melted chocolate, all caught my eye.
The door to the shop was open and I hastened within, a portly orc was wearing a giant oversized chef’s hat with a bronze clock face on it. One look and I knew it wasn’t decoration.
Whatever it was counting down for, it reached it before I reached the counter. It made a quick, ‘ding!’ noise and he said, “S’cuze me.” And disappeared into the back. He was a pretty standard orc, with thick muscled arms, greenish body and tusks for teeth below a porcine nose. His one distinguishing feature was that he was quite fat.
‘That’s how I know I can trust him. He’s eating his own work.’ I concluded and looked around. While what I saw of the city could be described as at least somewhat ‘dirty’ the shop itself was surprisingly clean. The racks were wood, except for two on the far wall which were of silver with even fancier items than on the wood, and I realized that probably represented a higher cost. The deeper you went inside, the more you paid.
“Fresh baked rumbldumplins!” He all but shouted, holding out the hot tray with his bare hands. Orcs were notoriously thick skinned, it was no surprise that his hands weren’t burning, but it was still weird to see one as a baker. He tilted it so I could see, and a little round pastry with an unfamiliar flower shaped ‘fruit’ I think? Sat in the center dripping with liquid sugar from what passed for leaves, landing on the flakey crust and drizzling down to the pan.
“You buy fresh, I give you discount on buying the old.” He said and his deepset amber eyes gave me a conspiratorial wink. “You my first customer of the day, so what you say eh?” He boomed at me.
I noticed the clock on his hat was ticking down again, and wondered what else was there.
“Yes. I say yes!” The rumbledumplins smelled great and looked even better.
“You make a good deal, I give you half off, eh? On any of the old but the sanziberry pie. We short of sanziberries.” He said and grabbed a newspaper from behind his counter.
“Why is that?” I asked. ‘Is this a plot hook? A quest beginning? Alright it’s a fetch quest, but still, it’d be my first!’ I could feel the excitement building and my heart starting to race.
“Oh, contract dispute. The bastards want triple the creds for the same thing. So I’m getting a new supplier and it takes time to get started. Fool too! Big fool. Sanziberries last a long time. Pie stays fresh. Do something like that with rumbleberries and I might have to pay first. Big fool.” He repeated with a shake of his big round head. “How many you want?”
The transaction was completed in a heartbeat, just like the doctor said. I paid ten creds and walked out with six rumbledumplings and a dozen chocolate crisps all wrapped up in old newspapers. I munched on one when I stood outside the shop.
“So much for a plot hook.” I mumbled while my eyes popped at the rich flavor melting on my tongue. When I realized at that moment, at the completion of my first ‘journey’ that literally not a goddamn thing had happened, or would happen, or could happen in the way it did in games and books and visual media, I snapped back to reality.
“I’m not getting a call to adventure. So… I’m going to have to pay it a visit instead.” I said, then swallowed my first purchase, and stowed the remainder under my arm for a moment. I touched my slate and said, “Show me to the Adventurer’s Guild.”
2023.04.01 03:36 Cosmicspider87 Epstein and his Royalty/Noble Connections
Royalty/Nobles
UK
submitted by Cosmicspider87 to MisterEinvestigating [link] [comments]
UK
- Prince Andrew, will have his own segment (These listed below are close to him and Epstein)
- Simon Case: Private Secretary to Prince William as of 2018. Previously was in charge of figuring out the border issue in Northern Ireland and Ireland post-Brexit. British civil servant for over a decade, including as a policy adviser for the Ministry of Defence.
- Merivale-Austen, Bruce: Managing Partner of DM Partners Asia, a private wealth management firm. Plays polo every summer with Prince William and Prince Harry (https://www.thailandtatler.com/people/brouce-merivale-austin
- Gibbs, Emma: Former girlfriend of Prince Andrew. Gibbs was introduced to Prince Andrew by her good friend, Ghislaine Maxwell. Gibbs worked as a PR consultant.
- Harvey Victoria: Ex-girlfriend of Prince Andrew, Hervey is an English model and socialite. Although her relationship with Andrew didn’t work out, she remained in his inner circle. In 2000, she attended a dinner with Prince Andrew, Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, and Jeffrey Epstein (source: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9844083/lady-victoria-hervey-jeffrey-epstein-too-old/). Hervey is also a friend of Ghislaine Maxwell, who introduced her to Epstein and “set her up in one of Epstein’s apartments in New York.” Hervey is the daughter of Victor Hervey, 6th Marquess of Bristol, businessman and member of the House of Lords.
- Jameel, Mohammed: Saudi Arabian businessman. CEO of Abdul Latif Jameel, a collective of family-owned businesses that specialize in transportation, investing, and real estate. Royal pervert Prince Andrew infamously partied on Jameel’s yacht during the 2011 London riots (source: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/prince-andrew-frolicks-on-yacht-with-mystery-147496
- Manconi, John: Businessman who hosts super exclusive charity polo events attended by Prince Charles, Harry, and Andrew (https://variety.com/2002/scene/vpage/royals-have-splendid-time-1117868882/).
- Caprice: Likely refers to Caprice Bourret, a former model and former love interest of Prince Andrew around 2000-2001.
- Sir Rufus Albermarle
- Earl Charles Spencer Aldrup
- Carella Alun-Jones
- Jeremy and Deborah Alun-Jones
- Simon Astaire Hollywood and British Royal Family agent. Specializes in representation, celebrity endorsement, and public relations.
- Sir Anthony Bamford and Lady C Anthony is a billionaire British businessman. Chairman of JCB, which provides equipment for construction, agriculture, etc. Has donated more than £4m personally and through JCB companies to the Conservative Party. Has close ties to David Cameron, Tony Blair, and Prince Charles. Bamford was mentioned in the Panama Papers as having offshore accounts. Lady Carole Bamford is his wife and a successful businesswoman.
- James & Lucinda Bruce: James is a businessman who comes from nobility. His father was a baron. His 2nd wife, Lucinda, is a producer.
- Lord and Lady Beaumon Likely refers to the late Tim Beaumont of Whitley and his wife, Baroness Mary Rose. Tim was a UK politician in the Liberal Party and, later on, the Green Party. Six generations of his paternal side sat in the House of Commons (source: Irish Times) He was also an Anglican priest. Mary Rose is the cousin of Antony Armstrong-Jones, 1st Earl of Snowdon and (now deceased) husband of Princess Margaret.
- Baron Bentinck Dutch and British nobility.
- Robert Byng Descendant of admirals, viscounts, and earls. Current property owner of Wrotham Park, an English country house that hosts social events for the wealthy and has been used as a filming location for many movies.
- Sir Nickey Caledon The 7th Earl of Caledon. Received his knighthood in 2015 when he was appointed Knight Commander of the Royal Victorian Order (KCVO).
- Mario Cabo-Platero is an Italian journalist and served as editor of the Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore for 30 years. Ariadne is the daughter of Lord and Lady Beaumont
- George & Pauline Case: Pauline Case (maiden name Pauline Astor) is a Viscountess and daughter of William Astor, 3rd Viscount Astor
- Marina Cowdray: Wife of Michael Pearson, 4th Viscount of Cowdray. Daughter of John Cordle. Sister of Rachel and Rupert Cordle.
- Sophie Crabbe British socialite
- d’Arenberg, Prince Pierre: Family lineage can be traced back 1000 years. European royalty. Extremely wealthy not because of his ties to nobility, but because his mother, Margaret Bedford, was an heiress to Standard Oil (Exxon).
- d’Uzes, Jacques De crussol: The 17th Duke of Uze
- Dartmouth, William: The 10th Earl of Dartmouth. Member of the European Parliament from 2009-2019. Became a stepbrother of Princess Diana when his mother embarked on a 2nd marriage with Diana’s father, John Spencer.
- Derby Earl / Cntess Cass & Ted: Edward Stanley (known informally as Teddy) is the 19th Earl of Derby. Caroline Stanley is Ted’s wife. She was a socialite during the ‘90s and is the daughter of Robin Neville, the 10th Baron Braybrooke
- Dolbey, Alex & Suzie: Suzie Dolbey (nee Murray-Philipson) is the daughter of the recently deceased Robin Murray-Philipson, who was the descendant of the Viscounts Elibank. Alex Dolbey has been the director of several management and investment companies.
- Duchess of York: Former wife of Prince Andrew. Mother of Princess Beatrice and Eugenie.
- Elliot, Ben: Current Co-Chairman of the Conservative Party in the UK and nephew of Camilla, Duchess of Cornwall (Prince Charles’s current wife). Elliot is also co-founder of Quintessentially Group, a hospitality group that specializes in leisure, travel, and tourism. Epstein has several ties to this group. Elliot’s spokesman has said that Elliot never met Epstein. However, Elliot has been a dinner guest of Ghislaine Maxwell in New York.
- Fairfax, The Hon Rupert: Hon. Rupert Alexander James Fairfax is the son of Thomas Brian McElvie Fairfax, 13th Lord of Fairfax of Cameron. Rupert is currently Managing Director of Fairfax Saddles, which was awarded the Queen’s Award for Innovation in 2018. This is the highest business award in the UK.
- Fiennes, Martin: The heir apparent to the Baron Saye and Sele, a title of peerage in England. Lives in Broughton Castle. Cousin of actor Ralph Fiennes.
- Fiennes, Suzzana: A British artist who works exclusively with Prince Charles. Susannah is the twin sister of Martin Fiennes and cousin of actor Ralph.
- Freud, Mathew: Matthew Freud is the head of Freud Communications, an international public relations firm. Matthew is also the great-grandson of Sigmund Freud. Freud’s first wife, Caroline Hutton, went on to marry the 9th Earl of Spencer (Princess Diana’s brother). Elisabeth Murdoch, his 2nd wife (now divorced), is the daughter of Rupert Murdoch.
- Robert Olney
- Mr and Mrs Ellingworth
- Lady Amanda
- Patrick and Marla Fairweather
- Gary Ramsey
- Ashley & Allegra Hicks: Ashley is the Godson of Prince Philip, second cousin of Prince Charles, and an interior designer.
- Viscount William Astor: Member of the House of Lords, which creates and shapes laws. There are approximately 800 current members. Chairman of television production company Silvergate Media. Member of the Astor family, which specialized in the fur trade, real estate, and drug smuggling in the early 19th century.
- Tamara Beckwith: English socialite
- Annabelle Bond OBE[1] (born 1969) is a British socialite,[2][3] international adventurer and activist,[4] who came to prominence after climbing the summit of Mount Everest on 15 May 2004, making her the fourth British woman to do so.
- Glentworth, Edmund & Emily: Edmund Pery is the 7th Earl of Limerick and was formerly known as Viscount Glentworth. He worked in British government until becoming director of Deutsche Bank. Emily is Edmund’s wife.
- Granby, David: David Charles Robert Manners is the 11th Duke of Rutland. He also goes by the Marquess of Granby. Granby is a high-profile supporter of the UK Independence Party and has hosted fundraising events at his ancestral home, Belvoir Castle. Employed Harvey Proctor, the former Conservative Parliament member who had to resign because he had sexual relations with underage male prostitutes, as his personal secretary.
- Grenfell, Natasha: Daughter of Lord St Just, heir to a banking fortune and Wilbury Park mansion. Her mother was actress and one-time Tennessee Williams love interest, Maria Britneva. Natasha is a socialite who has is friends with royalty, actors, and musicians
- Hambro, Clementine: Great-granddaughter of Winston Churchill who also served as a bridesmaid at the wedding of Prince Charles and Princess Diana when she was just five-years-old. Her father, Richard, was a British heir and investment banker. K
- Hanover, Ernst & chantal: Prince Ernst Hanover is the head of the royal House of Hanover. The House of Hanover has produced six British monarchs, including King George III and Queen Victoria. The current British monarchy, the Windsors, are actually of German and British descent, which is why these family trees intersect. Most notably, the House of Hanover is perhaps the most important of the Black Nobility families. There have been some fantastic threads on Reddit about the Black Nobility.
- Hanson, Brook: Adopted son of British industrialist, Lord Hanson, Brook died in 2014 at the age of 50.
- Hanson, Lord & Lady: British industrialist who made a fortune in the ‘80s as a Trade and Industry
- Secretary in close friend Margaret Thatcher’s administration. His wife, Geraldine, was a former model. They are both dead.
- Hanson, The Hon Robert: British financier and eldest son of Lord Hanson. Chairman of Hanson Family Holdings, a private investment firm. In the 1980s, Robert worked as a banker at NM Rothschild & Sons before returning to his father’s company. Before getting married, Hanson dated socialite Anouska de Georgiou, who became the first British woman to accuse Jeffrey Epstein of raping her as a teenager (source: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/how-british-teen-model-was-lured-jeffrey-epstein-s-web-n1056901. Odd that Robert Hanson, his brother Brook, and his parents would have wanted anything to do with Epstein.
- Heseltine, Rupert: Businessman and heir to Haymarket Media Group. Son of Baron Michael Heseltine.
- Hicks, India: A fashion model in the ‘80s and ‘90s, India Hicks is a good friend of Ghislaine Maxwell. Descendant of the Mountbatten family, a British dynasty (although much of their background is German). Granddaughter of the much-decorated war hero, Lord Mountbatten (Prince Charles’s mentor), who, according to FBI files, was “a homosexual with a perversion for young boys” (source: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9745399/lord-mountbatten-fbi-dossier-prince-charles/). Prince Charles is her second cousin and Godfather.
- Hill, Anthony: Son of Robin Hall, 8th Marquess of Downshire and Juliet Weld-Forester, daughter of 7th Baron Forester.
- Hoffman, Hetty: Married to Robin Dundas, Earl of Ronaldshay. Lady Ronaldshay is a patron and ambassador for Zoe’s Place Baby Hospice, a UK-based charity that provides care for terminally ill babies and children up to five years old. A good friend of Ben Holland-Martin
- Linley, David: Princess Margaret’s son, Queen Elizabeth II’s nephew, and first cousin of Prince Charles and Prince Andrew. Linley is a furniture maker and the 2nd Earl of Snowdon. He used to be the Chairman of Christie’s auction house in the UK.
- Manners, Eddie: Lord Manners is the son of the 10th Earl of Rutland and an investment banker. He lives at Haddon Hall, a beautiful old mansion.
- Manners, Miss Lucy: An interior designer who is the cousin of Eddie (mentioned above) and the Duke of Rutland. Lucy is a very close friend of Sarah, Duchess of York (Prince Andrew’s first wife), a close friend of Epstein’s, and even served as her lady-in-waiting. Manners lives at Eastnor Castle, which houses 96 rooms.
- Manners, Terssa: Teresa is the daughter of the 10th Duke of Rutland and sister of Eddie and the 11th Duke of Rutland. She was the cover girl for Tatler and posed for Vogue, two magazines that feature many Epstein contacts.
- Menzies, Kate: Close friend of Princess Diana and the Royal Family. The Menzies are millionaires because of their newsagents and distribution group.
- Milford Haven George & Clare: George Mountbatten, 4th Marquess of Milford Haven. Second cousin of Prince Charles. Founded uSwitch, a website that allows you to compare suppliers of various services. Sold the company for $400 million. George’s grandfather was the older brother of Lord Mountbatten, alleged pedophile and father figure/mentor to Prince Charles. George’s wife, Clare, was the Social Editor of Tatler magazine (there it is again!) from 1995-2005.
- Monckton, Rosa: Former President of Tiffany & Co. jewelry company. Daughter of a Viscount. Princess Diana was Monckton’s best friend and the Godmother of one of her children. Rosa also serves as a fundraiser for and on the board of several charities, most of which focus on children. Monckton is a patron for Downside Up, a charity for children with Down Syndrome, with actor Ralph Fiennes, who is also in Epstein’s contacts (http://downsideupcharity.org/node/64). She also raises money for KIDS charity out of London where Liz Hurley (also in Epstein’s contacts) is a patron, along with Elton John, David Cameron, David Furnish, Cherie Booth, and Channel 4 News presenter Cathy Newman (https://www.kids.org.uk/Pages/FAQs/Category/patrons). Epstein once offered Monckton to bring her daughter, who has Down Syndrome, to his house in Palm Beach (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2003/03/jeffrey-epstein-200303?currentPage=1
- Murray Threipland, Tercious/Claire: Owner of Dunbeath Castle. Claire left her first husband, Henry Herbert, The 17th Earl of Pembroke, to be with Tertius in 1981. Claire’s daughter, Emma, was a bridesmaid at the first marriage of Camila Parker Bowles (now Prince Charles’s wife).
- Negrete, Jelitza: A Countess and descendant of European nobility
- Newman, Hetty: Second wife of the 7th Earl of Caledon.
- Noel, Hon Thomas: Son of Anthony Noel, 5th Earl of Gainsborough
- O’Donnell, Mr Carletto: Financier. Friend of Princess Michael of Kent (King George V’s grandson)
- Oxenberg Christina marc Yaggi: Christina is a writer and fashion designer. Her mother is Princess Elizabeth of Yugoslavia. Her grandparents were Prince Paul of Yugoslavia and Princess Olga of Greece and Denmark. Due to all of the inbreeding between European royals, Christine is a cousin of the Royal Family. Oxenberg used to attend dinner parties at Epstein’s and was also friends with Ghislaine (https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/tradition/a30222833/christina-oxenberg-instagram-patreon-memoi). Oxenberg intends to talk to the FBI about Epstein and Maxwell (https://www.tatler.com/article/christina-oxenberg-speaks-to-fbi-about-ghislaine-maxwell-and-jeffrey-epstein). Marc Yaggi is Executive Director of Waterkeeper Alliance, where Oxenberg was once a writer.
- Palumbo, Mr James: Baron Palumbo of Southwark is an entrepreneur and a member of the House of Lords. Co-founder of Ministry of Sound nightclub
- Palumbo, Peter: Father of James (above). Baron Palumbo is a property developer who sat on the House of Lords from 1991-2019. Former polo teammate and close friend of Prince Charles until they had a falling out. Confidant of Princess Diana. Godfather of Princess Beatrice of York, the elder daughter of Prince Andrew. Peter denies ever having met Epstein.
- Pearson Hon Charles: Son of the Third Viscount Cowdray and owner of the 53,000 acre Dunecht estate
- Pease, Simon & Clem: Simon was a successful custodian of the family’s Underley Estate. He was also a High Sheriff of Cumbria. Passed away in 2007. Clementine was his wife.
- Puttnam, David: British film producer, educator, and member of the House of Lords. Puttnam was friends with Princess Diana before her passing.
- Jose Aznar (Prime Minister)
- Fernando de Cordova Hohenlohe: Spanish nobility. Current Marquis of Alboloduy.
- Joaquin Fernandez de Arion: Spanish royalty. The 10th Duke of Arion. His mother is Princess Beatriz zu Hohenlohe-Langenburg. Married to Diana Langes-Swarovski, the great-great granddaughter of Daniel Swarovski, founder of the crystal manufacturer.
- Henry & Tatjana D’abo d’abo, d’Abo is the grandson of the 9th Duke of Rutland Tatjana is his wife. Henry is the chairman of Wilton Payments Ltd, a private company that helps with financial intermediation. He and Christopher O’Neill are the primary shareholders of the company. O’Neill is Tatjana’s half-brother, a British-American financier, and husband to Princess Madeleine, Duchess of Hälsingland and Gästrikland , a daughter of King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden
- d’abo, Mrs. Jennifer: British entrepreneur who passed away in 2003. d’Abo was once married to Peter Cadbury from the family of the famous chocolate company. Peter did not work for the company, but he and Jennifer d’Abo had a son together. Their son, Joel Cadbury, became owner of the Groucho Club, a watering hole often frequented by famous people. Three years after Cadbury sold the club, their website became the center of a child pornography scandal (link to story: https://www.sott.net/article/242698-Groucho-Clubs-website-forum-hit-by-child-pornography-scandal
- Pierre D’ArenBerg
- de Clermont-Tonnerre, Hermine: A French princess who used to have a penchant for partying. The only daughter of Charles Henri, 11th Duke of Clermont-Tonnerre, Hermine was one of 500 guests invited to Queen Elizabeth The Queen Mother’s 100th birthday back in 2000.
- Louis Albert de Broglie French prince and entrepreneur The Prince Gardener
- Hauteville, Marc de: Manages Soc Civile du Frayssinet, a real estate company based out of France. There is very little information other than this. Both of his parents appear to be members of noble families - the Hautevilles and the Cazenoves - who have historical ties to the Du Ponts.
- Karella, Kalliope: Wife of Prince Pierre d’Arenberg. Kalliope is a good friend of Ghislaine Maxwell.
- Amr Al-Dabbagh
- Firyal Princess: Jerusalem-born Jordanian princess who was once married to Prince Muhammad bin Talal. Firyal was named an UNESCO Goodwill Ambassador in 1992. Princess Firyal launched the International Hope Foundation in 1994 for the benefit of homeless and street children. Firyal holds positions with several museums (The Louvre, The Tate, MOMA, and Guggenheim), as well as positions with Columbia University, New York Public Library, United Nation Association, and International Rescue Committee.
- Debbie & Bola Von Bismarck: Leopold (“Bolle”) von Bismarck is the great-grandson of Otto von Bismarck, the first chancellor of Germany. Debbie is a former model and Leopold’s wife. Model Kate Moss is currently engaged to their son, Nikolai.
- Vanessa von Bismarck Cofounder of BPCM, a public relations firm that specialized in fashion, beauty, and wine & spirits. Great-great-granddaughter of Otto von Bismarck.
- Furstenberg, Heinrich & Milana Heinrich is a prince and the Head of the House of Furstenberg as of 2011. He married Milana (Maximiliane of Windlisch-Gaetz), his second cousin, in 1976. He owns and manages the family’s landholdings and beer brewing businesses. His wife (and second cousin) also belongs to a family of high nobility.
- Furstenberg, Alex, Alexandra V.: Alexander is an American businessman and the son of the famous fashion designer Diane von Furstenberg. He remains a partner in his mother’s company. Alexandra is a furniture designer and Alex’s ex-wife. They divorced in 2002 but have 2 children together.
- Peretti Brachetti: Ferdinando Brachetti Peretti. Nobility. Son of Count Aldo Maria Brachetti-Peretti. Co-owner of Italian oil company, API.
- Hugo Brachetti: Also co-owner of Italian oil company, API. Ferdinando’s brother.
- Tiberto Brandolini d'Adda Mr. Brandolini d’Adda currently serves as an independent member of the Board of Directors of YAFA S.p.A. In addition, from 2015 to December 2019, he has been an independent Boardmember of LumX Asset Management (Suisse) S.A. (formerly Gottex Fund Management Holdings Limited).
- Muriel Brandolini is a famous interior designer who has worked with Matt Lauer, the Crown Prince and Princess of Greece, and others. Nuno is a banker and (shockingly) comes from money and nobility
- Gianluca Cicogna: CEO, CFO, and President of Beauty Brands Inc. Brother of Gianfranco Cicogna.
- Gioconda Cicogna: Mother of Gianluca and Gianfranco. Interior designer.
- Gianfranco Cicogna: Gianfranco Cicogna Mozzoni was a business leader, a Count by birth, the Ambassador for the Order of Malta at its embassy in Kenya. His grandfather, Giuseppe Volpi, was known as “Italy’s Rockefeller.” Gianfranco died flying a plane at an air show in 2012.
- Marina Cicogna: Countess. Granddaughter of Kingdom of Italy Finance Minister Giuseppe Volpi, one of the richest and most influential men in Italy in the early 1900s.
- Durso Luigi: Luigi d’Urso was a noble and Italian railroad executive who died in 2006. His grandfather was the 9th Duke di Cassano. His mother was the great-granddaughter of George Clymer, one of the founding fathers of the U.S. and signee of both the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution. d’Urso was also married to French designer and model Ines de la Fressange.
- Gaetani, Gelasio: Count Gelasio Gaetani comes from one of the oldest families in Rome. The Gaetani (also known as Caetani) family has produced 3 popes, including Pope Boniface VIII. Gelasio is a wine specialist and vineyard owner who helps celebrities buy the most unique bottles of wine throughout the world.
- Gaetani, Rufreido: Roffredo Gaetani was an Italian count, prince, and duke who died in a car crash in 2005. Roffredo came to the public’s attention when he dated Ivana Trump in the 1990s. Brother of Gelasio.
- Pignatelli, Frederico: An Italian prince whose family has “aristocratic ties to Pope Innocenzo XII” (https://federicopignatelli.com/). President, owner, and founder of Pier 59 Studios, the world’s largest photo studio complex. Federico was once accused of sexual harassment by his former assistant, but he was acquitted (https://nymag.com/intelligence2010/08/photography_studio_head_federi.html). Pignatelli also has his own modeling agency which is headed by Brunella Casella, the woman responsible for launching the career of scumbag Naomi Campbell, Cindy Crawford, and others (https://wwd.com/fashion-news/fashion-scoops/industry-model-management-new-york-office-10505934/
- Gillford, Lord & Lady: Lord Gillford is Patrick Meade, the 8th Earl of Clanwilliam. He is a businessman who is on the board of Soma Oil & Gas Holdings and Eurasia Drilling Company, where he served as Chairman. Eurasia Drilling Company is owned by Russian billionaire oligarch, Alexander Dzhaparidze and billionaire Alexander Putilov.
- Greece Princess Olga: Princess Olga, Duchess of Apulia (nee Princess Olga Isabelle of Greece) married her second cousin, Prince Aimone of Savoy, Duke of Apulia, in 2008. Olga’s father is first cousins with Prince Phillip (Queen Elizabeth’s wife).
- Greece, MC & Pavlos: Pavlos is the eldest son of Constantine II, the last King of Greece, before the monarchy was abolished in 1973. Worked in New York as an investment portfolio manager. MC is his wife, Marie-Chantal, Crown Princess of Greece. Her father is the billionaire founder of Duty Free Shops. Her sisters, Alexandra and Pia, married into the von Furstenberg and Getty families, respectively. A dinner party was thrown for them at the Standard Hotel in 2009. There were about 12 guests there. One of those exclusive guests was Ghislaine Maxwell (source: https://wwd.com/eye/people/royal-standard-a-fete-for-princess-marie-chantal-and-prince-pavlos-2399957/
- Guedroltz, Solina & Nicolas: Solina is a photographer. Her father is a viscount. Nicolas is an antique Russian furniture dealer. He is a Russian prince and is of Belgian nobility through his mother’s side.
- Hapsburg, Marie: Royalty. Her father was Archduke Joseph Arpad of Austria and her mother, Archduchess Maria of Austria, was a Princess of Löwenstein-Wertheim-Rosenberg and a member of the House of Löwenstein-Wertheim-Rosenberg by birth. The Hapsburg (also called Habsburg) family is one of the most powerful and wealthiest families in Europe. The Hapsburgs are another Black Nobility family of very high prestige. I couldn’t find anything out about her husband, Raymond van der Meide. They have 7 children together.
2023.04.01 03:19 TheLavirix [H] Various games from Monthly and bundles in the last 18 months [W] Offers, TF2 keys, paypal
IGS Rep
Howdy, bunch of humble monthly/bundle leftovers here, I'm looking for games I don't have, current bundle games I don't have, tf2 keys and potentially paypal depending. Buyer covers fees. Leave a comment and message.
Games available:
Dungeon Defenders
Dungeon Defenders Ultimate Collection DLC
Killing Floor 1
Payday 2
Magicka
Dungeon of the Endless
Little Nightmares
Brothers: A Tale of Two Sons x2
Red Faction®: Armageddon™
Project Warlock
Metro Exodus
PGA Tour 2K21
Starbound
Supraland
Ring of Pain
Iron Danger
Crying Suns
Popup Dungeon
Endless Space 2
Wargroove
Rustler
Drawful 2
Amnesia: Rebirth
Kingdom Two Crowns
West of Dead
Dear Esther: Landmark Edition
Driftland: The Magic Revival
WARSAW
Book of Demons
Fury Unleashed
Going Under
Pathfinder: Kingmaker
Jurassic World Evolution
Super Meat Boy
Orcs Must Die! 2
Orcs Must Die! 2 - Complete DLC
Neon Abyss
Street Fighter V
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen
DmC: Devil May Cry
Monster Hunter: World
Black Book
One Step From Eden
Railway Empire
Gas Station Simulator
In Sound Mind
Pillars of Eternity - Definitive Edition
Not Tonight
Little Big Workshop
Gauntlet Slayer Edition
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor Game of the Year Edition
EXAPUNKS
SHENZHEN I/O
Serious Sam Classics: Revolution
Serious Sam HD: The First Encounter and Serious Sam HD: The Second Encounter
Planescape: Torment Enhanced Edition
Icewind Dale: Enhanced Edition
Neverwinter Nights: Enhanced Edition
Neverwinter Nights: Darkness Over Daggerford
Neverwinter Nights: Enhanced Edition Dark Dreams of Furiae
Neverwinter Nights: Enhanced Edition Tyrants of the Moonsea
Neverwinter Nights: Infinite Dungeons
Neverwinter Nights: Pirates of the Sword Coast
Neverwinter Nights: Wyvern Crown of Cormyr
Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition
Baldur's Gate: Enhanced Edition
Mordhau
Nickelodeon All-Star Brawl
Kingdom of Amalur: Re-Reckoning Fate Edition
Doom Eternal
Gemini Rue
The Textorcist: The Story of Ray Bibbia
Forager
Pathfinder: Kingmaker - Enhanced Plus Edition
Pathfinder Wrath of the Righteous Enhanced Edition
Ghostrunner
XCOM 2
PAYDAY 2
Strange Brigade
Euro Truck Simulator 2
System Shock Enhanced Edition
Mount & Blade: Warband
Worms Rumble
Backbone
911 Operator
112 Operator x2
Calico
X-Morph: Defense Complete Pack
Zombie Driver HD
Monaco x2
Lust from Beyond - M Edition
Stygian: Reign of the Old Ones
Remnants of Naezith
Little Orpheus
Detached: Non-VR Edition
Agent in Depth
Lighthouse Keeper
Hyper Gunsport
JURASSIC WORLD EVOLUTION 2
The Amazing American Circus
Soulblight
Orbital Racer
submitted by TheLavirix to indiegameswap [link] [comments]
Howdy, bunch of humble monthly/bundle leftovers here, I'm looking for games I don't have, current bundle games I don't have, tf2 keys and potentially paypal depending. Buyer covers fees. Leave a comment and message.
Games available:
Dungeon Defenders
Dungeon Defenders Ultimate Collection DLC
Killing Floor 1
Payday 2
Magicka
Dungeon of the Endless
Little Nightmares
Brothers: A Tale of Two Sons x2
Red Faction®: Armageddon™
Project Warlock
Metro Exodus
PGA Tour 2K21
Starbound
Supraland
Ring of Pain
Iron Danger
Crying Suns
Popup Dungeon
Endless Space 2
Wargroove
Rustler
Drawful 2
Amnesia: Rebirth
Kingdom Two Crowns
West of Dead
Dear Esther: Landmark Edition
Driftland: The Magic Revival
WARSAW
Book of Demons
Fury Unleashed
Going Under
Pathfinder: Kingmaker
Jurassic World Evolution
Super Meat Boy
Orcs Must Die! 2
Orcs Must Die! 2 - Complete DLC
Neon Abyss
Street Fighter V
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen
DmC: Devil May Cry
Monster Hunter: World
Black Book
One Step From Eden
Railway Empire
Gas Station Simulator
In Sound Mind
Pillars of Eternity - Definitive Edition
Not Tonight
Little Big Workshop
Gauntlet Slayer Edition
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor Game of the Year Edition
EXAPUNKS
SHENZHEN I/O
Serious Sam Classics: Revolution
Serious Sam HD: The First Encounter and Serious Sam HD: The Second Encounter
Planescape: Torment Enhanced Edition
Icewind Dale: Enhanced Edition
Neverwinter Nights: Enhanced Edition
Neverwinter Nights: Darkness Over Daggerford
Neverwinter Nights: Enhanced Edition Dark Dreams of Furiae
Neverwinter Nights: Enhanced Edition Tyrants of the Moonsea
Neverwinter Nights: Infinite Dungeons
Neverwinter Nights: Pirates of the Sword Coast
Neverwinter Nights: Wyvern Crown of Cormyr
Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition
Baldur's Gate: Enhanced Edition
Mordhau
Nickelodeon All-Star Brawl
Kingdom of Amalur: Re-Reckoning Fate Edition
Doom Eternal
Gemini Rue
The Textorcist: The Story of Ray Bibbia
Forager
Pathfinder: Kingmaker - Enhanced Plus Edition
Pathfinder Wrath of the Righteous Enhanced Edition
Ghostrunner
XCOM 2
PAYDAY 2
Strange Brigade
Euro Truck Simulator 2
System Shock Enhanced Edition
Mount & Blade: Warband
Worms Rumble
Backbone
911 Operator
112 Operator x2
Calico
X-Morph: Defense Complete Pack
Zombie Driver HD
Monaco x2
Lust from Beyond - M Edition
Stygian: Reign of the Old Ones
Remnants of Naezith
Little Orpheus
Detached: Non-VR Edition
Agent in Depth
Lighthouse Keeper
Hyper Gunsport
JURASSIC WORLD EVOLUTION 2
The Amazing American Circus
Soulblight
Orbital Racer
2023.04.01 02:42 SolitudeSidd LT255/80/17 Cooper Discoverer ST MAXX no lift
 | I have a stock 2022 4Runner with no lift. Mounted on the black TRD SEMA wheels everyone has. +4 offset I believe, about 11mm more negative than the regular Off Road wheels. I do have a body mount chop as I thought I was going with 34s but I reconsidered. The chop isn't needed for this tire I don't think. submitted by SolitudeSidd to 4Runner [link] [comments] Manufacturer says diameter is 32.8". No rubbing for street driving. I'll be finding a way to articulate to the maximum for each wheel and begin cutting. I'll see if I can get away with being able to off road this without a lift but I kind of doubt it. The spare fits up under it, I'm happy to say. Just wanted to share some anecdotal evidence with y'all. Edit: oh and they're oddly quiet. Like quieter than my Nitto Terra Grapplers that came from the factory. I only got to 50mph but it was weird and hopefully highway driving is the same. |
2023.04.01 01:10 Galaxyartcat oh I really don't like this. The Covington storm is looking on a path straight to Bowling green, with Mayfield possibly under fire if the storm shifts paths
 | submitted by Galaxyartcat to tornado [link] [comments] |
2023.04.01 01:05 svnftsmthng Thoughts on the Madison Park neighborhood near Eutaw?
My partner and I currently live in Mt. Vernon but are considering purchasing a house on Eutaw. The listing states it’s in Bolton Hill but in reality it’s in Madison Park across the street from Bolton Hill. We know Bolton Hill fairly well but know nothing about Madison Park. I was wondering if someone could shed some light on what the vibe is like and safety/crime. We would still most likely be spending our time in Bolton Hill and Mt. Vernon.
Thanks for your help!
submitted by svnftsmthng to baltimore [link] [comments]
Thanks for your help!
2023.04.01 00:39 HeartyFoothold Balance showed in the market tab
 | Can you explain to me what is thzt balance down ? submitted by HeartyFoothold to lostarkgame [link] [comments] |
2023.03.31 23:58 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
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Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
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(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
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2023.03.31 23:57 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.31 23:55 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.31 23:54 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
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(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
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(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.31 23:54 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.31 23:53 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.31 23:52 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?2023.03.31 23:51 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?2023.03.31 23:49 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
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Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
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But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
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The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
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Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
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While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
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The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
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Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
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Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
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Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
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Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
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Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
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On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
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In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
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Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
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Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
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Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
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A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
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(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
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2023.03.31 23:00 WrightJunc [S][USA-FL] Voigtlander 28mm f2.8 Color-Skopar SLIIs F-mount
Voigtlander 28mm f2.8 Color-Skopar SLIIs for Nikon F-mount. Lens is in effectively mint condition, but I have used it so on that basis I've classified it as near-mint but Im not aware of any cosmetic blemishes on the lens or any of its accessories. Everything optically is flawless and there are no issues (dust/fungus/scratches). Comes in original box with front and rear caps.
Purchased by me from B&H in August '22 with the intent to build a more portable street D850 kit but wanted smaller so went for the Leica M11 and now this is redundant. Super sharp, great rendering, really a phenomenal lens.
Happy to provide additional photos or details on the lens.
Asking $650 - includes PP G&S and shipping within CONUS.
Verification and Photos
submitted by WrightJunc to photomarket [link] [comments]
Purchased by me from B&H in August '22 with the intent to build a more portable street D850 kit but wanted smaller so went for the Leica M11 and now this is redundant. Super sharp, great rendering, really a phenomenal lens.
Happy to provide additional photos or details on the lens.
Asking $650 - includes PP G&S and shipping within CONUS.
Verification and Photos