Walgreens 12th street pharmacy
MoscowMurders
2022.11.17 01:04 quitclaim123 MoscowMurders
A true crime community to discuss the ongoing investigation into the murders of University of Idaho students Ethan Chapin, Kaylee Goncalves, Xana Kernodle, and Madison Mogen. OFFICIAL TIP LINES: 208-883-7180; [email protected]
2014.03.19 16:53 spazzyjessie Pre-pharmacy: Getting Info, Getting In, Getting Acclimated
A great new place to share stories, gain insight, request assistance, and share feedback throughout the journey to pharmacy school.
2016.03.05 23:23 FlyLikeAMouse ODEON Screen Unseen
A subreddit to discuss and decipher ODEON Cinema's Screen Unseen. Check here for clues, rumours, leaks and anything else!
2023.04.01 11:17 heimdal-joao From the Sahara to the Sea: 10 Must-See Destinations in Morocco That Will Leave You Spellbound
 | Morocco is a North African country that is rich in history, culture, and natural beauty. From the bustling city of Marrakech to the peaceful town of Chefchaouen, Morocco has a lot to offer to travelers who are seeking unique experiences. submitted by heimdal-joao to u/heimdal-joao [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/1md6j81mp8ra1.jpg?width=3648&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=863122fdafaf133d10fb746211946986563dc418 Marrakech Marrakech is a vibrant city that is known for its bustling markets, traditional architecture, and historic landmarks. One of the must-see landmarks in Marrakech is the Jemaa el-Fnaa square, which is home to snake charmers, street performers, and delicious street food. Other must-see landmarks include the Koutoubia Mosque, Bahia Palace, and the Saadian Tombs. Casablanca Casablanca is the economic capital of Morocco and home to the largest mosque in Africa, the Hassan II Mosque. The mosque is a stunning structure that showcases intricate Moroccan architecture and offers a breathtaking ocean view. Other notable landmarks in Casablanca include the Rick's Cafe and the Royal Palace of Casablanca. Fes Fes is a city that is steeped in history and culture. The city is home to the oldest university in the world, the University of Al Quaraouiyine, which dates back to the 9th century. Fes is also famous for its traditional tanneries, which have been producing leather goods for centuries. Other must-see landmarks include the Bou Inania Madrasa, the Dar Batha Museum, and the Royal Palace of Fes. Chefchaouen Chefchaouen is a small town that is located in the Rif Mountains. The town is known for its blue-painted buildings and peaceful atmosphere. Chefchaouen is a great place to relax and enjoy the scenic views of the surrounding mountains. Other notable landmarks include the Kasbah Museum and the Ras Elma River. Essaouira Essaouira is a coastal city that is known for its relaxed atmosphere and beautiful beaches. The city is also famous for its historic fortifications and traditional fishing port. Other must-see landmarks include the Skala de la Ville, the Essaouira Citadel, and the Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdallah Museum. Rabat Rabat is the capital city of Morocco and home to the Mausoleum of Mohammed V, which is a stunning example of Moroccan architecture. The city is also home to the Hassan Tower, which is an incomplete mosque that dates back to the 12th century. Other notable landmarks include the Royal Palace of Rabat and the Chellah Necropolis. Atlas Mountains The Atlas Mountains are a stunning range that spans across Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The mountains are home to traditional Berber villages and breathtaking landscapes. A trek through the Atlas Mountains is a must-do activity for any adventurous traveler. Sahara Desert The Sahara Desert is the largest hot desert in the world and covers most of North Africa. The desert is a magical place with towering sand dunes and clear night skies. A camel trek through the desert is an experience that you will never forget. Ouarzazate Ouarzazate is a city that is located in the middle of the desert and is known as the gateway to the Sahara. The city is home to the Kasbah of Taourirt, which is a stunning example of Moroccan architecture. Ouarzazate is also a popular filming location for Hollywood movies and TV shows. Agadir Agadir is a coastal city that is known for its beautiful beaches and relaxed atmosphere. The city is a popular tourist destination and offers a range of activities, including surfing, golfing, and hiking in the nearby hills. In conclusion Morocco is a country that is full of unique experiences for travelers. From the vibrant city of Marrakech to the peaceful town of Chefchaouen, and from the stunning Atlas Mountains to the magical Sahara Desert, there is something for everyone in Morocco. The country is rich in history, culture, and natural beauty, and a visit to any of these ten must-see destinations is sure to leave you spellbound. Whether you are seeking adventure, relaxation, or simply a chance to explore a new culture, Morocco is a destination that should be on your travel bucket list. |
2023.04.01 05:11 kalannh88 New insurance
So I've been on mounjaro for a few months and I have BlueCross BlueShield with a Prior Authorization for prediabetes and hyperglycemia but I have been using the coupon card every time I pick it up from walgreens. I recently changed my insurance plan at work, just upgraded the plan, still the same insurance company. I had to get the PA redone but it says the same thing. When I went to fill my refill, it was denied, both the insurance and the coupon card. The pharmacy said they had no idea why it wasn't going through. When I called the insurance company they said I never should have been able to fill it in the past? Does anyone have any advice for how to fix this? I have spent the last week calling the doctopharmacy/insurance several times each and none of them seem to know what happened.
submitted by kalannh88 to Mounjaro [link] [comments]
2023.04.01 02:57 Tippity2 Is Over consideration of Others part of Masking?
I went in to get my passport renewed at a U.S. post office today. I waited 2 weeks for an appointment. I arrived at the designated time and there was a very long line. After 20 minutes, the lady said, “11 am Passport appointment “ and the couple with the baby in front of me exited the middle of the line and went in. Apparently, there were supposed to be three people in the post office customer service area dealing with keys to post office boxes, lost packages, and also passports.
This was a room off to the side of the normal line where you go to buy stamps and stuff. So there were probably eight people in front of me now. I assumed that the couple had had a 10:30 appointment or something. There were supposed to be three people in the customer service area and this one passport lady was handling all of the lost key for post office, box issues, getting a new box, set up, etc. (so she told me)….she was supposed to be only handling passports, but she was handling everything. Then, a couple with two young boys got in line behind me and we’re talking about passports. Their appointment was for 1145 and it was 11:15 AM. The couple with the baby had not taken a picture of their baby and the photo machine was broken. I knew this, so I told the new people behind me that the photo machine was broken and they would need to take pictures of their sons….. we had been chatting and they said they needed new passports because the original passports had baby pictures. I told them themachine was broken and that there was a Walgreens up the street that would do it for them. The husband went up and asked and the lady confirmed. He left with the two boys.
The lady went on to help three more people get new keys while the couple with the baby finished filling out their form. When they left, she called passports again and it was my turn. I was told that my form was from 2019 and I needed a more recent form. She handed me one , and I needed to just fill in all the blanks yet again. The man had come back with his two sons, and she called them forward in front of the new keys people still in line. So finished the form and got up and stood behind passports-boys. Had I said nothing , the passport-boys family would’ve left to take photos. Instead, I waited another 15 minutes while she helped the people with the two sons.
When they finally left, she then looked at all of my forms and was putting them together. I had like everything….but passport lady stopped and started helping a couple of nose-ring girls. Rather than continue to help me, she left and went to the next empty station and started helping them. They just needed a key.
I stood there and waited some more. Finally, she issued these people their key, and as everybody before me, gave them a white slip of paper and told them to go and pay the bill for their service at the post office front area where you buy stamps and stuff. So far, I had not complained or said anything. I knew this lady was working alone. I felt bad that she was doing so much work when she was supposed to be only doing passports. She finally finished me up and sent me to the front with a piece of paper and to get in front to pay next out there, since I had been here at a scheduled appointment time for those with passports. Everybody who had had a passport was told to go to the front of the line in the next room.
So I go to the front of the line and nose-ring women who were in the middle of the line, said I was cutting in line. I told them that I had been here for a scheduled appointment for passports, and that the lady in customer service had told me to wait at the front of the line to just pay my ticket. I had not objected to them taking up my time, but they decided to start heckling me about cutting in front of 10 people.
At this point, I was near to tears with anxiety, because the passport process was so difficult. I had brought everything with me, and luckily, managed to produce a marriage license, and a divorce decree which the woman asked for, and none of the instructions had mentioned anything about that. It was very stressful. Especially when so many people were let to go in front of me in the other room.
I couldn’t take it anymore. Rather than have a melt down, and I was close, I kept my shit together , walked back into the passport office, and asked the lady to come out and please tell these people that she had told me to go to the front of the line because I had had a scheduled appointment at 11 AM. Now it was 12:30 PM.
I finally got an open window….with a trainee in their first week. After 10 minutes of him plinking about on the register, he finally had to ask the lady next to him for help. It was just her and he, just 2 agents….I was finally out of there at 1 PM.
None of these people said thank you.
This is in Oregon. I am from Texas. Nose ring lady that was bitching at me about jumping the queue had seen my TX drivers license and commented. She behaved as if I was automatically an asshole because my drivers license was from Texas. I cannot tell you how many times anything from the state of Texas, in the state of Colorado or Oregon, has caused me grief. My anxiety was going through the roof. The amount of masking that one has to do in situations like this… I still don’t know why I incited this type of behavior from the others. I felt like screaming ‘bigot’ at her. I was raised in Washington state.
My husband, born in Oregon, is not autistic. He has always seemed to be far less considerate of others than I. All I can think is that I need to try and be less considerate of others. I was an hour late for work when I came back. And so was he.
My question to other autistic women: are we over considerate of others? Is it part of masking as a woman?
submitted by Tippity2 to AutismInWomen [link] [comments]
This was a room off to the side of the normal line where you go to buy stamps and stuff. So there were probably eight people in front of me now. I assumed that the couple had had a 10:30 appointment or something. There were supposed to be three people in the customer service area and this one passport lady was handling all of the lost key for post office, box issues, getting a new box, set up, etc. (so she told me)….she was supposed to be only handling passports, but she was handling everything. Then, a couple with two young boys got in line behind me and we’re talking about passports. Their appointment was for 1145 and it was 11:15 AM. The couple with the baby had not taken a picture of their baby and the photo machine was broken. I knew this, so I told the new people behind me that the photo machine was broken and they would need to take pictures of their sons….. we had been chatting and they said they needed new passports because the original passports had baby pictures. I told them themachine was broken and that there was a Walgreens up the street that would do it for them. The husband went up and asked and the lady confirmed. He left with the two boys.
The lady went on to help three more people get new keys while the couple with the baby finished filling out their form. When they left, she called passports again and it was my turn. I was told that my form was from 2019 and I needed a more recent form. She handed me one , and I needed to just fill in all the blanks yet again. The man had come back with his two sons, and she called them forward in front of the new keys people still in line. So finished the form and got up and stood behind passports-boys. Had I said nothing , the passport-boys family would’ve left to take photos. Instead, I waited another 15 minutes while she helped the people with the two sons.
When they finally left, she then looked at all of my forms and was putting them together. I had like everything….but passport lady stopped and started helping a couple of nose-ring girls. Rather than continue to help me, she left and went to the next empty station and started helping them. They just needed a key.
I stood there and waited some more. Finally, she issued these people their key, and as everybody before me, gave them a white slip of paper and told them to go and pay the bill for their service at the post office front area where you buy stamps and stuff. So far, I had not complained or said anything. I knew this lady was working alone. I felt bad that she was doing so much work when she was supposed to be only doing passports. She finally finished me up and sent me to the front with a piece of paper and to get in front to pay next out there, since I had been here at a scheduled appointment time for those with passports. Everybody who had had a passport was told to go to the front of the line in the next room.
So I go to the front of the line and nose-ring women who were in the middle of the line, said I was cutting in line. I told them that I had been here for a scheduled appointment for passports, and that the lady in customer service had told me to wait at the front of the line to just pay my ticket. I had not objected to them taking up my time, but they decided to start heckling me about cutting in front of 10 people.
At this point, I was near to tears with anxiety, because the passport process was so difficult. I had brought everything with me, and luckily, managed to produce a marriage license, and a divorce decree which the woman asked for, and none of the instructions had mentioned anything about that. It was very stressful. Especially when so many people were let to go in front of me in the other room.
I couldn’t take it anymore. Rather than have a melt down, and I was close, I kept my shit together , walked back into the passport office, and asked the lady to come out and please tell these people that she had told me to go to the front of the line because I had had a scheduled appointment at 11 AM. Now it was 12:30 PM.
I finally got an open window….with a trainee in their first week. After 10 minutes of him plinking about on the register, he finally had to ask the lady next to him for help. It was just her and he, just 2 agents….I was finally out of there at 1 PM.
None of these people said thank you.
This is in Oregon. I am from Texas. Nose ring lady that was bitching at me about jumping the queue had seen my TX drivers license and commented. She behaved as if I was automatically an asshole because my drivers license was from Texas. I cannot tell you how many times anything from the state of Texas, in the state of Colorado or Oregon, has caused me grief. My anxiety was going through the roof. The amount of masking that one has to do in situations like this… I still don’t know why I incited this type of behavior from the others. I felt like screaming ‘bigot’ at her. I was raised in Washington state.
My husband, born in Oregon, is not autistic. He has always seemed to be far less considerate of others than I. All I can think is that I need to try and be less considerate of others. I was an hour late for work when I came back. And so was he.
My question to other autistic women: are we over considerate of others? Is it part of masking as a woman?
2023.04.01 02:11 Positivesuncow Scammed???
Just had an order for 3 items at Walgreens. $2 tip. It was “Jessica’s” 3rd order. As soon as I start shopping, I get a message that says “hi,” which I thought was weird. Then a message saying “can u plz call myhubby he wants to add something and I’m working rn.” I responded saying it’s against Instacart policy and to ask her husband what he wanted then let me know and I could add it. Didn’t respond after 4 minutes and I was reaching my time limit, so I finished the shopping and checked out. At this point, I was already sketched out but figured I’d at least complete the batch (stupid, I know). Pulled up to a super rundown house. Was pretty sketched out, so I ran up to the door, set the bag down, ran back to my car and completed the batch. Forgot to take a picture, which was stupid as well. As soon as I’m turning off the street, I get a call from Instacart support. She confirms my order and says she’s connecting me with the customer. Customer (a man), goes off saying order wasn’t delivered, I should’ve taken a picture, blah blah blah. Chewing me out while Instacart support does nothing???? I finally said I don’t know what you want me to do about it and I think I’m being scammed. Instacart support then let me go and said to continue on with my other orders. Customer also removed the tip before delivery was complete. Anyone had this happen before??? Did I just get scammed?? I went against my better judgment and feel like a total idiot. But also, f—- Instacart.
submitted by Positivesuncow to InstacartShoppers [link] [comments]
2023.03.31 23:58 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.31 23:57 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
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Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.31 23:55 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.31 23:54 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.31 23:54 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.31 23:53 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.31 23:52 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?2023.03.31 23:51 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
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While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
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The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
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Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
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Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?2023.03.31 23:49 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
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DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April
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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.
Here Come the April Flowers
It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.
Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?
The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K
Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short Interest Update
Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY
The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak
As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
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(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
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2023.03.31 23:10 nolanday64 My micro-discectomy & decompression diary ...
Day before surgery:
· Morning: shower with provided antibacterial body wash per instructions.
· Regular routine during the day, other than trying to eat/drink well.
· No alcohol or medical mary-jane during this time.
· Evening: another shower with antibacterial wash before bed.
· They wanted me to drink 32oz of Gatorade or something like that this evening.
· No food whatsoever after midnight.
Day of surgery:
· Morning shower again with anti-bac soap.
· I was allowed 8oz of a non-colored clear liquid but didn’t need any, wasn’t thirsty.
· Show up at the hospital at 7:30am after 50-min drive in the rain and morning traffic with an accident on the highway forcing us onto side streets.
· After a short lobby room wait, I was taken back for pre-op stuff like getting into gown, slippers, checking BP, pulse ox, taking questions, and getting IV setup. I also had to put on what acts like support hose, which are tight on the lower legs/feet, she said this helps prevent clots, just a precaution she said.
· A while later anesthesiologist comes in to introduce and ask a lot of questions
· A while later ortho surgeon comes in to touch base, so we’re ready to go
· All told, after about 2 1/2 hours total in pre-op, in comes the other anesthesiologist on the team, he starts something into the IV line behind me where I can’t see what it was, and they pack up my bed and start rolling down a hallway and into a very cluttered OR. Seriously, it looked like there was every conceivable surgical robot and machine in this room, so I wasn’t sure at first this was the operating room, or a storage room.
· That’s about when my lights went out and I was under.
· Woke up probably 2-hrs later in recovery room/partitioned bed. Once I was alert there was some final checkout after they got my blood pressure down. It always runs slightly high, but she was seeing a diastolic over 100 and wanted that lower before releasing, so she ran some medicine into the IV line.
· After a short time she was satisfied with the BP, and I was able to get dressed (with assistance), and pee, and then I was being shown the door, basically, by having a wheelchair waiting for me outside the restroom. I had the option of staying the day/night and leaving tomorrow, but couldn’t see any reason for that since I was feeling okay.
· Voice is a little raspy and dry, most likely effects of the breathing tube.
· At this point, walking still feels wonky, like the leg which was the sciatica side is shorter than the other, and I’m not walking straight. I expect that will improve as the surgery meds wear off and my leg/butt muscles get re-acclimated.
· There’s some burning pain around the incision site, but not major. Getting in/out of the car, which is fairly low bucket seats, wasn’t too bad since I took it slow and could grasp the window & door frames to lower myself in.
· Stopped at the pharmacy and McDonald’s on the way home. Was able to eat most of it, but I think the surgery meds are still suppressing appetite a little and making things taste & feel a little “off”.
· Now I’m home resting, took my meds (hydrocodone & some muscle relaxer) before settling into the recliner with my laptop.
· Otherwise moving around the house hasn’t been any problem at all, just as long as I’m conscious to keep my back straight, moving slow and deliberately. I was given a big bulky back brace to wear if needed, but it interferes with sitting so I’ll just save that for times when I go for a walk.
More to come as I track pain levels and activity for a few days. Hopefully this will all be a good story to offset some of the scary ones we see here.
submitted by nolanday64 to Sciatica [link] [comments]
· Morning: shower with provided antibacterial body wash per instructions.
· Regular routine during the day, other than trying to eat/drink well.
· No alcohol or medical mary-jane during this time.
· Evening: another shower with antibacterial wash before bed.
· They wanted me to drink 32oz of Gatorade or something like that this evening.
· No food whatsoever after midnight.
Day of surgery:
· Morning shower again with anti-bac soap.
· I was allowed 8oz of a non-colored clear liquid but didn’t need any, wasn’t thirsty.
· Show up at the hospital at 7:30am after 50-min drive in the rain and morning traffic with an accident on the highway forcing us onto side streets.
· After a short lobby room wait, I was taken back for pre-op stuff like getting into gown, slippers, checking BP, pulse ox, taking questions, and getting IV setup. I also had to put on what acts like support hose, which are tight on the lower legs/feet, she said this helps prevent clots, just a precaution she said.
· A while later anesthesiologist comes in to introduce and ask a lot of questions
· A while later ortho surgeon comes in to touch base, so we’re ready to go
· All told, after about 2 1/2 hours total in pre-op, in comes the other anesthesiologist on the team, he starts something into the IV line behind me where I can’t see what it was, and they pack up my bed and start rolling down a hallway and into a very cluttered OR. Seriously, it looked like there was every conceivable surgical robot and machine in this room, so I wasn’t sure at first this was the operating room, or a storage room.
· That’s about when my lights went out and I was under.
· Woke up probably 2-hrs later in recovery room/partitioned bed. Once I was alert there was some final checkout after they got my blood pressure down. It always runs slightly high, but she was seeing a diastolic over 100 and wanted that lower before releasing, so she ran some medicine into the IV line.
· After a short time she was satisfied with the BP, and I was able to get dressed (with assistance), and pee, and then I was being shown the door, basically, by having a wheelchair waiting for me outside the restroom. I had the option of staying the day/night and leaving tomorrow, but couldn’t see any reason for that since I was feeling okay.
· Voice is a little raspy and dry, most likely effects of the breathing tube.
· At this point, walking still feels wonky, like the leg which was the sciatica side is shorter than the other, and I’m not walking straight. I expect that will improve as the surgery meds wear off and my leg/butt muscles get re-acclimated.
· There’s some burning pain around the incision site, but not major. Getting in/out of the car, which is fairly low bucket seats, wasn’t too bad since I took it slow and could grasp the window & door frames to lower myself in.
· Stopped at the pharmacy and McDonald’s on the way home. Was able to eat most of it, but I think the surgery meds are still suppressing appetite a little and making things taste & feel a little “off”.
· Now I’m home resting, took my meds (hydrocodone & some muscle relaxer) before settling into the recliner with my laptop.
· Otherwise moving around the house hasn’t been any problem at all, just as long as I’m conscious to keep my back straight, moving slow and deliberately. I was given a big bulky back brace to wear if needed, but it interferes with sitting so I’ll just save that for times when I go for a walk.
More to come as I track pain levels and activity for a few days. Hopefully this will all be a good story to offset some of the scary ones we see here.
2023.03.31 22:38 PinkPotatoes Disappointing experience.
I joined RO with the expectation that they and their benefits partner would be the liason between me and my insurance company and handle all the necessary communication/paperwork. From my experience, that couldn't be further from the truth.
My bloodwork all checked out within normal levels. My RO doctor made an attempt to send a PA to insurance for Wegovy first, and then Ozempic after a denial for Wegovy. Both times I received messages from RO 3 to 5 days later after each PA letting me know that my medication was denied but I could proceed with a cash pay option if I wanted to for 1000 to 1600 dollars.
Upon contacting my insurance company myself (6-8 times throughout the 5 weeks that I was an RO patient) they told me that RO was sending my prescription to Walgreens which was causing an automatic denial due to it being out of network. I told the doctor this both times, all while I was reassured that their pharmacy liason would handle it appropriately and not to worry about what pharmacy it needed to go to. They continued to only tell me my insurance was denying the medication - no communication as to why the denial happened or what was going on, only that I could proceed forward with the cash pay option. I even called RO ~4 days ago (talked to the nicest rep) to try and tell them that insurance was denying simply because it was being sent to an out of network pharmacy and that I needed it changed. She said she would escalate it and I never heard back.
The entire 5 weeks I was an RO member was a huge flop. Maybe they are overwhelmed with demand and trying to keep up, I really have no idea. I'm genuinely a very understanding person but I would caution that I would expect nothing from RO other than a script. It would be easier and cheaper to go see your primary care doctor and they would likely fight for your case more. This just felt like a cash grab. I cancelled today. Hugely disappointed at the lack of effort and communication.
submitted by PinkPotatoes to RoBody [link] [comments]
My bloodwork all checked out within normal levels. My RO doctor made an attempt to send a PA to insurance for Wegovy first, and then Ozempic after a denial for Wegovy. Both times I received messages from RO 3 to 5 days later after each PA letting me know that my medication was denied but I could proceed with a cash pay option if I wanted to for 1000 to 1600 dollars.
Upon contacting my insurance company myself (6-8 times throughout the 5 weeks that I was an RO patient) they told me that RO was sending my prescription to Walgreens which was causing an automatic denial due to it being out of network. I told the doctor this both times, all while I was reassured that their pharmacy liason would handle it appropriately and not to worry about what pharmacy it needed to go to. They continued to only tell me my insurance was denying the medication - no communication as to why the denial happened or what was going on, only that I could proceed forward with the cash pay option. I even called RO ~4 days ago (talked to the nicest rep) to try and tell them that insurance was denying simply because it was being sent to an out of network pharmacy and that I needed it changed. She said she would escalate it and I never heard back.
The entire 5 weeks I was an RO member was a huge flop. Maybe they are overwhelmed with demand and trying to keep up, I really have no idea. I'm genuinely a very understanding person but I would caution that I would expect nothing from RO other than a script. It would be easier and cheaper to go see your primary care doctor and they would likely fight for your case more. This just felt like a cash grab. I cancelled today. Hugely disappointed at the lack of effort and communication.
2023.03.31 21:59 aurora-_ Are doctors allowed to refuse to send prescriptions to independents? FL state doctor and pharmacy.
I am not a pharmacist, but I’m dealing with a prescriber refusing to send my rx anywhere but a chain. The chains suck here. Are they allowed to do this?
Edit:
It was Done, it was Adderall, I didn’t mean to hide that, I approached this as a “why are they making me go to Walgreens they suck” thinking it was a kickback, but learned through y’all it’s because Done is a pill mill doling out Sch IIs to whoever asks and Walgreens is their pharmacy of last resort.
Fun fact, they may have banned Done too, because the rx was literally cancelled and Done can’t figure out why. (They did a Pa? When I didn’t need one? Lol)
I am trying to get in person care still. Saw an instagram ad, thought I could cheat while still pursuing care. I really appreciate you all for your help.
submitted by aurora-_ to pharmacy [link] [comments]
Edit:
It was Done, it was Adderall, I didn’t mean to hide that, I approached this as a “why are they making me go to Walgreens they suck” thinking it was a kickback, but learned through y’all it’s because Done is a pill mill doling out Sch IIs to whoever asks and Walgreens is their pharmacy of last resort.
Fun fact, they may have banned Done too, because the rx was literally cancelled and Done can’t figure out why. (They did a Pa? When I didn’t need one? Lol)
I am trying to get in person care still. Saw an instagram ad, thought I could cheat while still pursuing care. I really appreciate you all for your help.
2023.03.31 21:56 devinbost Key Therapeutics desoxyn available now - how to order??
I just got an email from Key Therapeutics that Desoxyn is now available. Most of the pharmacies' computers were outdated, but I got in touch with my Walgreens pharmacist, and he contacted Key Therapeutics directly and was able to place the order. He had my doctor send a new prescription that specifically requested the brand name from Key Therapeutics to improve insurance coverage. I then got back in touch with my pharmacy after my doctor sent the prescription to verify insurance coverage, and the pharmacist ordered it. It was $1500 after insurance, but Key Therapeutics is offering a copay coupon as a promotion. (Edited) More information is available at https://desoxyn.com/
submitted by devinbost to Desoxyn [link] [comments]
2023.03.31 21:44 the-frog-monarch My boyfriend just broke up with me
I feel like I want to just go to sleep
I'm in the middle of a depressive episode, been off my meds for a while, trying to get back on
I told him "I understand, thank you for being honest."
I feel numb and cold, like the blood has left my body
I'm on fucking hold for Walgreens still trying to get ahold of the god damned pharmacy because my prescription is a week late
I'm tired
I guess everyone gets tired of me eventually
I'm tired of me too
Sorry for the pain I've caused
I never meant it
submitted by the-frog-monarch to bipolar [link] [comments]
I'm in the middle of a depressive episode, been off my meds for a while, trying to get back on
I told him "I understand, thank you for being honest."
I feel numb and cold, like the blood has left my body
I'm on fucking hold for Walgreens still trying to get ahold of the god damned pharmacy because my prescription is a week late
I'm tired
I guess everyone gets tired of me eventually
I'm tired of me too
Sorry for the pain I've caused
I never meant it
2023.03.31 21:34 Bigphungus Which pharmacy do you go to and what generic do they carry?
I've heard generics are an issue with Zolpidem, currently going to walgreens and they have one everyone seems to hate but it works fine for me the time's I've used it, haven't tried any other brands, though. I'm thinking about switching pharmacies to get better quality generics, but I'm not sure which ones carry what and walgreens has Teva Klonopin which works very well so I'm wondering what places carry what.
submitted by Bigphungus to ambien [link] [comments]
2023.03.31 21:11 Entire_Yellow_8978 Costco Wholesale Pharmacy
How does working at Costco compare to working at other pharmacies like CVS or Walgreens, etc.? What is good about it (if anything) and what do you dislike about it? I work part-time at a Rite Aid 30+ minutes from me and just got called in for an interview at a Costco closer by, so I'm weighing my options.
submitted by Entire_Yellow_8978 to pharmacy [link] [comments]
2023.03.31 19:51 Lonely_Insurance4588 If you work at Walgreens, you’re not allowed to have a life apparently
Okay so I’ve been scrambling to find a place because my roommate abandoned their lease and I can’t afford to pay for this place alone, I found one and got approved today and have to move my shit out of the apartment by tomorrow morning which unfortunately means I can’t come to work today and I get the whole “it’ll be hard to find someone because you’re our only night person” so?! That’s not my fault, tell corporate to have proper staffing levels so when employees go through something natural life circumstances which require their immediate attention it doesn’t cause the business to shatter. The fact that me showing up can make or break business for the day shows how poorly staffed Walgreens keeps their pharmacies. I don’t have a choice, I have to move write me up, fire me, idgaf!
submitted by Lonely_Insurance4588 to WalgreensStores [link] [comments]
2023.03.31 18:33 TheACMJS Everything we know so far about AC Mirage.
*Edit: Any mistakes will be edited as suggested from comments. Any further news probably won't come out until June 12th. From now on, any additional information will include a link to the source.
New Gameplay:
Best guess for any type of update will be at Ubi Forward (Ubisoft version of E3 for their own games.) On June 12th 2023. (No games have been specifically announced yet for Ubi Forward.) [https://news.ubisoft.com/en-us/article/67GHa3uLK2nC5QlXYOySGG/ubisoft-forward-live-from-la-june-12]
No gameplay has been shown, and no release date has been announced.
Internal Delays:
There are current rumors as of early January 2023 of delays. It has been rumored that Mirage would come out in August 2023. As yet, nothing has been officially confirmed by Ubisoft as of (1-20-23). More rumors point towards a June release.
More rumors that Mirage will be delayed as a severe lack of news/advertisements. [https://insider-gaming.com/assassins-creed-mirage-delayed/]
Last Ubisoft Update:
September 10th 2022. When the cinematic trailer was released. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x55lAlFtXmw]
Setting:
9th century Baghdad, 861 the “Golden Age” of Islamic Baghdad 20 years before Valhalla (872 to 878) Fortress Alamut means “the eagle's nest” in Arabic.
No gender option, No dialogue branches/choices. Linear storytelling.
Summary:
Play as Basim from a street thief to apprentice to Master. Basim becomes a young orphan and after committing “an act of deadly retribution” (Perhaps revenge against those who wronged his father) he flees Baghdad and joins the Hidden Ones.
Story:
Transitional period between Hidden Ones and the Assassin’s. The same for the Order of the Ancients and the Templar's.
Confession rooms are back.
Modern Day: There will be no modern day segments. Only 2 cutscenes showing entering the animus and exiting. [https://gamerant.com/assassins-creed-mirage-no-modern-present-day-gameplay/] We don’t know if this means exclusively just no walking sections, or if there will be cutscenes to establish canon reasons we are playing as Basim. Besides the 2 cutscenes mentioned above.
Developer Background:
Mirage will have more of an insight into the Hidden Ones and the evolution of the ancient civilization.
What (if anything) will Mirage change from AC Origins, or will it simply fill in gaps in the origin story?
The cinematic trailer itself is an homage to previous game trailers in the franchise.
The game creators are using the original games Assassin’s Creed 1 and the Ezio trilogy as inspiration for the game to go “back to basics.” Focus on the three pillars; stealth, parkour, and assassinations. A more narrative driven approach to progression and a more contained map to explore. Compared to previous games, hopefully Mirage will be more active and detailed and won’t leave much “white noise” like in Odyssey and Valhalla.
Meeting Sigurd and the Vikings will take place at the end of the game, but it is not known at what point Haytham will become Basim’s apprentice.
Gameplay features:
Use a guard as a shield, pole-vaulting over objects, pulling down market stands as a distraction or objects blocking enemies paths.
Social stealth is back (blending in with crowds, benches etc . . .)
Improved and reworked the detection system. Allows the player to see who is tracking you and how far away.
Other features include changes to the parkour and stealth systems. I.e., changing speed of parkour movements and animations.
Multikill assassinations or “assassin focus”. An ability that can eliminate multiple targets at once. (might be Brotherhood iniaties or some other upgrade, will have to recharge.)
Assassinations are one hit kills.
Thieves sense. Not sure if just for loot like Bayek in Origins, or if it can also sense enemies.
Eagle is back can be locked if spotted by archers. May be used to spot enemies.
Gameplay loop includes: Identify, hunt, eliminate, vanish.
Tools, Throwables, Ranged:
Throwing knives, (No bow, only ranged weapon) smoke bombs, sleep darts, mines, noisemakers. Not officially confirmed, but claimed these various tools can be upgraded. It is not known if the tools will be accessed via the Dpad or a weapon wheel.
Combat:
Valhalla hit box system (Not counter based system as some had hoped)
Three weapons: Sword, Dagger and Hidden Blade (hopefully not only used as an offhand attack/parry weapon like in Valhalla). Sword and Dagger are a combo. Not known if the sword and the dagger will have to be the same cosmetic skin, or if the skins could be applied separately.
Weapons:
The sword and dagger can be changed in terms of the look (cosmetics), but not swapped out with any other weapons as in previous games.
ArmoOutfits:
No separate armor slots or pieces. It will just be one costume that will change cosmetically. No specific stats.
Something not known is if there will be some type of armor to be acquired. For example, in ACII Altair’s armor was acquired by collecting the 6 seals. The Romulus seals in Brotherhood. The keys for the Templar armor in Black Flag, or the Mayan stones. The Carnellion’s Master Assassin outfit through the Nostradamus Enigmas in Unity.
World Building:
The bigger world in previous games (Origins, Odyssey, and Valhalla) meant less focus on stealth and certain animations were taken out new animations have been added in and others restored.
More densely populated city.
There are Assassin contracts in the game, presumably through the Assassin Bureaus. There are 4 districts. 2/4 districts have been confirmed. Industrial area and the Lush Gardens of the round city.
*Side Note: Early game claims there are 5 districts (Round City, Science District, Karkh, Trade District and Military District. [https://earlygame.com/gaming/assassins-creed-mirage-release-date-latest-news-leaks]
In total, the rumor is that the map is about the size of the city of Paris in Unity. It is not known if the side missions are separate from the Assassin contracts, or if the contracts themselves are the only type of side missions.
Black Box Missions:
Black box assassination missions are back.
A problem is that officially, there is no “canon” way that a target goes down in these missions, as players are given a multitude of approaches and opportunities. It is not known if there are “100 sync” sequences or optional objectives to achieve on a sync bar or if they are truly free like in Unity. If a player messes up, there is no reset option unless the player dies. There are multiple opportunities and no planned New Game+. So it will take a few walkthroughs to do them all. It is not confirmed if there is a way to replay through the Black Box missions besides “failing” them or dying. One workaround would be to use multiple saves to see which approach you feel best adapts to your game style.
How Long to Beat:
Game time: 15 to 20 hours.
No planned DLC or Expansions.
Collectibles:
Something else not known is the type of collectibles. In previous games collectible types consisted of keys, manual scripts, feathers, songs, animus fragments etc.…
Most notably in previous games, keys, or seals were collected through a series of parkour challenges to acquire an armor set. AC II, for example, collect all 6 seals and get Altair’s armor. In AC Brotherhood, collect all 6 Romulus seals and earn the Armor of Romulus. In Black Flag, get all the Templar keys for the Templar armor. Also in Black Flag, solve the Mayan stone puzzles to earn the Mayan Armor. In AC Unity, solve all the Nostradamus puzzles to unlock Thomas de Canellion’s medieval armor. Finally, in Origins, collect the silica fragments to unlock the ISU armor. If there is an armor set to unlock, we’re not entirely sure what that would look like.
Behind the scenes:
Started work in April 2021. (If released by August as rumored, Mirage will have been worked on for 2 years and 4 months)
Originally known as and referenced to as AC Rift.
Mirage began as an expansion DLC for AC Valhalla.
Mirage is built on AC Valhalla’s assets.
MTX:
No microtransactions in the game through a Helix credit store.
Bundled consumables will be available for real money on the Ubisoft (Uplay) /PS (PlayStation) /MS (Microsoft) stores. What consumables will be available and how they will be used is as yet to be determined.
Sources:
https://www.techradar.com/news/assassins-creed-mirage-everything-we-know-so-far
https://www.gamesradar.com/assassins-creed-mirage-guide/
https://earlygame.com/gaming/assassins-creed-mirage-release-date-latest-news-leaks
submitted by TheACMJS to assassinscreed [link] [comments]
New Gameplay:
Best guess for any type of update will be at Ubi Forward (Ubisoft version of E3 for their own games.) On June 12th 2023. (No games have been specifically announced yet for Ubi Forward.) [https://news.ubisoft.com/en-us/article/67GHa3uLK2nC5QlXYOySGG/ubisoft-forward-live-from-la-june-12]
No gameplay has been shown, and no release date has been announced.
Internal Delays:
There are current rumors as of early January 2023 of delays. It has been rumored that Mirage would come out in August 2023. As yet, nothing has been officially confirmed by Ubisoft as of (1-20-23). More rumors point towards a June release.
More rumors that Mirage will be delayed as a severe lack of news/advertisements. [https://insider-gaming.com/assassins-creed-mirage-delayed/]
Last Ubisoft Update:
September 10th 2022. When the cinematic trailer was released. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x55lAlFtXmw]
Setting:
9th century Baghdad, 861 the “Golden Age” of Islamic Baghdad 20 years before Valhalla (872 to 878) Fortress Alamut means “the eagle's nest” in Arabic.
No gender option, No dialogue branches/choices. Linear storytelling.
Summary:
Play as Basim from a street thief to apprentice to Master. Basim becomes a young orphan and after committing “an act of deadly retribution” (Perhaps revenge against those who wronged his father) he flees Baghdad and joins the Hidden Ones.
Story:
Transitional period between Hidden Ones and the Assassin’s. The same for the Order of the Ancients and the Templar's.
Confession rooms are back.
Modern Day: There will be no modern day segments. Only 2 cutscenes showing entering the animus and exiting. [https://gamerant.com/assassins-creed-mirage-no-modern-present-day-gameplay/] We don’t know if this means exclusively just no walking sections, or if there will be cutscenes to establish canon reasons we are playing as Basim. Besides the 2 cutscenes mentioned above.
Developer Background:
Mirage will have more of an insight into the Hidden Ones and the evolution of the ancient civilization.
What (if anything) will Mirage change from AC Origins, or will it simply fill in gaps in the origin story?
The cinematic trailer itself is an homage to previous game trailers in the franchise.
The game creators are using the original games Assassin’s Creed 1 and the Ezio trilogy as inspiration for the game to go “back to basics.” Focus on the three pillars; stealth, parkour, and assassinations. A more narrative driven approach to progression and a more contained map to explore. Compared to previous games, hopefully Mirage will be more active and detailed and won’t leave much “white noise” like in Odyssey and Valhalla.
Meeting Sigurd and the Vikings will take place at the end of the game, but it is not known at what point Haytham will become Basim’s apprentice.
Gameplay features:
Use a guard as a shield, pole-vaulting over objects, pulling down market stands as a distraction or objects blocking enemies paths.
Social stealth is back (blending in with crowds, benches etc . . .)
Improved and reworked the detection system. Allows the player to see who is tracking you and how far away.
Other features include changes to the parkour and stealth systems. I.e., changing speed of parkour movements and animations.
Multikill assassinations or “assassin focus”. An ability that can eliminate multiple targets at once. (might be Brotherhood iniaties or some other upgrade, will have to recharge.)
Assassinations are one hit kills.
Thieves sense. Not sure if just for loot like Bayek in Origins, or if it can also sense enemies.
Eagle is back can be locked if spotted by archers. May be used to spot enemies.
Gameplay loop includes: Identify, hunt, eliminate, vanish.
Tools, Throwables, Ranged:
Throwing knives, (No bow, only ranged weapon) smoke bombs, sleep darts, mines, noisemakers. Not officially confirmed, but claimed these various tools can be upgraded. It is not known if the tools will be accessed via the Dpad or a weapon wheel.
Combat:
Valhalla hit box system (Not counter based system as some had hoped)
Three weapons: Sword, Dagger and Hidden Blade (hopefully not only used as an offhand attack/parry weapon like in Valhalla). Sword and Dagger are a combo. Not known if the sword and the dagger will have to be the same cosmetic skin, or if the skins could be applied separately.
Weapons:
The sword and dagger can be changed in terms of the look (cosmetics), but not swapped out with any other weapons as in previous games.
ArmoOutfits:
No separate armor slots or pieces. It will just be one costume that will change cosmetically. No specific stats.
Something not known is if there will be some type of armor to be acquired. For example, in ACII Altair’s armor was acquired by collecting the 6 seals. The Romulus seals in Brotherhood. The keys for the Templar armor in Black Flag, or the Mayan stones. The Carnellion’s Master Assassin outfit through the Nostradamus Enigmas in Unity.
World Building:
The bigger world in previous games (Origins, Odyssey, and Valhalla) meant less focus on stealth and certain animations were taken out new animations have been added in and others restored.
More densely populated city.
There are Assassin contracts in the game, presumably through the Assassin Bureaus. There are 4 districts. 2/4 districts have been confirmed. Industrial area and the Lush Gardens of the round city.
*Side Note: Early game claims there are 5 districts (Round City, Science District, Karkh, Trade District and Military District. [https://earlygame.com/gaming/assassins-creed-mirage-release-date-latest-news-leaks]
In total, the rumor is that the map is about the size of the city of Paris in Unity. It is not known if the side missions are separate from the Assassin contracts, or if the contracts themselves are the only type of side missions.
Black Box Missions:
Black box assassination missions are back.
A problem is that officially, there is no “canon” way that a target goes down in these missions, as players are given a multitude of approaches and opportunities. It is not known if there are “100 sync” sequences or optional objectives to achieve on a sync bar or if they are truly free like in Unity. If a player messes up, there is no reset option unless the player dies. There are multiple opportunities and no planned New Game+. So it will take a few walkthroughs to do them all. It is not confirmed if there is a way to replay through the Black Box missions besides “failing” them or dying. One workaround would be to use multiple saves to see which approach you feel best adapts to your game style.
How Long to Beat:
Game time: 15 to 20 hours.
No planned DLC or Expansions.
Collectibles:
Something else not known is the type of collectibles. In previous games collectible types consisted of keys, manual scripts, feathers, songs, animus fragments etc.…
Most notably in previous games, keys, or seals were collected through a series of parkour challenges to acquire an armor set. AC II, for example, collect all 6 seals and get Altair’s armor. In AC Brotherhood, collect all 6 Romulus seals and earn the Armor of Romulus. In Black Flag, get all the Templar keys for the Templar armor. Also in Black Flag, solve the Mayan stone puzzles to earn the Mayan Armor. In AC Unity, solve all the Nostradamus puzzles to unlock Thomas de Canellion’s medieval armor. Finally, in Origins, collect the silica fragments to unlock the ISU armor. If there is an armor set to unlock, we’re not entirely sure what that would look like.
Behind the scenes:
Started work in April 2021. (If released by August as rumored, Mirage will have been worked on for 2 years and 4 months)
Originally known as and referenced to as AC Rift.
Mirage began as an expansion DLC for AC Valhalla.
Mirage is built on AC Valhalla’s assets.
MTX:
No microtransactions in the game through a Helix credit store.
Bundled consumables will be available for real money on the Ubisoft (Uplay) /PS (PlayStation) /MS (Microsoft) stores. What consumables will be available and how they will be used is as yet to be determined.
Sources:
https://www.techradar.com/news/assassins-creed-mirage-everything-we-know-so-far
https://www.gamesradar.com/assassins-creed-mirage-guide/
https://earlygame.com/gaming/assassins-creed-mirage-release-date-latest-news-leaks