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2023.03.20 17:28 oO0Kat0Oo Another one bites the dust
2023.03.20 17:26 Brilliant_Ad8209 SURJANI TOWN SECTOR 13 BREAKING NEWS تجاوزات STATUS PLOG PLOTS IN SU...
2023.03.20 17:26 Brilliant_Ad8209 SURJANI TOWN SECTOR 13 BREAKING NEWS تجاوزات STATUS PLOG PLOTS IN SU...
2023.03.20 17:25 tonnie_taller ‘Sacrifice and Survival: A Story From The Front Line’ detailing Benjamin Hall’s journey home now on Fox Nation
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2023.03.20 17:25 tonnie_taller Trump arraignment may be done virtually to avoid ‘tremendous’ danger of making arrest
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2023.03.20 17:23 Minimoose91 FRC is halted and failing (11:22 Central Time)
2023.03.20 17:22 DMDTT Hedgies never learn 🤣
2023.03.20 17:22 ksandbergfl I believe the children are our future, teach them well and let them lead the way
2023.03.20 17:20 Restless_Dill16 Dealing with internalized biphobia
I (24M) have questioned my sexuality since I was about 16. In late middle school/early high school I was more interested in guys and male bodies. It wasn't until I was a junior in high school, when I developed a crush on another boy, that it occurred to me I might not be straight. However, I put that question on the back burner until I went to college. Seeing all these good-looking guys all around me made me start asking myself questions. I like girls as well, even had a crush or two in college. I guess my attraction to guys is more specific (as in, I've caught feelings for specific guys) whereas my attraction to women is more broad (I think women are pretty and I'm open to being with one, but I seldom feel attracted to a specific woman). I should probably mention I've never been in a relationship, so that might be why I feel some confusion.
Recently, I've started to accept that I might be bi. I've always liked the label. However, I still feel a lot of anxiety about embracing that label (or any queer label) because of my faith. I've been a Christian since I was 13, and my denomination does not support the LGBT community. I come from a secular family. My parents don't care who I date as long as we treat each other well, and my younger siblings are very supportive. I'm more afraid of church friends and mentors not wanting to talk to me anymore if I fall in love with a man instead of a woman.
I know I shouldn't care about what strangers think, but I saw some news stories last night about some theology professor tweeting homophobic stuff and a hockey player refusing to wear a pride jersey. That stuff gets in my head and makes me wonder if I'm on a bad path if I accept my sexuality. I spent five years of my life (ages 19-23) trying to fight this part of myself. I got tired of fighting it, but sometimes I wonder if I should try again for another five years.
I will end this post by acknowledging it is possible I'm wrong about my sexuality. Maybe with more experience I'll realize I'm actually straight or gay, or maybe that experience will just confirm that I am bi. Maybe I'll even realize I'm perfectly fine being single. Right now, I'm in the "straight part" of the bi cycle; since bi people are statistically more likely to be with an opposite sex partner, I sometimes wonder if I'm making a big deal out of nothing. Also, I'm aware that you can be queer and a person of faith, and there are affirming interpretations of the Bible. I live in the south, specifically Texas, so being queer and religious sometimes feels like mixing oil and water. This has led me to start deconstructing my faith and see if I still believe these things.
Thank you for your time. I look forward to reading your thoughts.
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2023.03.20 17:19 G_Wash1776 Bad Day to be a Bank
2023.03.20 17:17 subredditsummarybot Your weekly /r/losangeleskings roundup for the week of March 13 - March 19
Monday, March 13 - Sunday, March 19
Game thread comments
Top Remaining Posts
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2023.03.20 17:17 Aggravating-Union390 First Republic Bank just halted at a new all-time LOW - Currently down 36% on the day
2023.03.20 17:16 Calm_Local_5527 Ed Ryan running for congress to unseat ‘pay for play ‘artist , Congressman Richie Neal, now provides a link for anyone to play and hopefully re-post some of the more than 60 videos on his YouTube channel: please see:
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Ed Ryan running for congress to unseat ‘pay for play ‘artist , Congressman Richie Neal, now provides a link for anyone to play and hopefully re-post some of the more than 60 videos on his YouTube channel:
please see: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLw_FYYl-Gcwr5-LmZpAvxrorL4RCRUf5U
Ed Ryan J.D. is a Reform/Progressive Democratic. This means Reform Democrat, Ed Ryan, will always work to end the present corrupting reality of the monied elite taking over, and corrupting American Democracy, so much so that average Americans can no longer depend on the American Government being their government pursuing the best interest of Americans, and doing what it takes to make the lives of average Americans better. This is about make sure that every American has an authentic opportunity to pursue and attain their slice of the dream. Ed Ryan, being a Reformed Democrat first, pledges to do his best to get corporate money and oligarch supplied ‘dark money’ out of American politics because it has truly corrupted our American Democracy in ways that robs Americans off their fundamental natural rights to lice free under justice and liberty, and to have and uncorrupted ‘government for the people, and by the people.’ Ed Ryan now runs for Congress to make sure that the people of Western Massachusetts, here in Richie Neal’s first congressional district, will never have a repeat situation as seen today regarding the extensive Richie Neal Corruption. All of it, going on at full throttle, as the cities in the district, including Springfield, Chicopee, Holyoke, North Adams and Pittsfield, now unnecessarily wallow in extreme poverty causing immense suffering and injustice. And, all the while, this horror show of real human abuse and suffering, is being ignored by their Congressman Richie Neal, who is preoccupied with being the ‘pay for play’, King of Congress.
Congressional candidate Ed Ryan believes Americans can establish the democratic dream of authentic ‘government for the people and by the people.’ The American Government can be what it is supposed to be, a tool to make life better for all Americans, and not just for the Corporate and Oligarch elite who now so willingly corrupt American Democracy. Most Americans don’t have a lot of money and are now being locked out of American democracy. This is wrong, it widens the deadly gap between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots,’ Ed Ryan believes that this needs to end because Americans are not going to be kicked to the curb while the monied elite and Christian Nationalist destroy the rights of every American to have uncorrupted democracy. This is wrong and Ed Ryan Now runs to message ‘No Way, No How’ . Government for the people and by the people will happen because that is what the American people want.
Ed Ryan, J.D. has worked for Democrats Bernie Sanders, Jerry Brown and Joe Kennedy. Ryan is a former Massachusetts Attorney working for the Hampden County District Attorney’s Office, Ryan then worked as a private criminal defense attorney who was assigned by the courts more indigent defense cases in 1988 and 1989 than any other Massachusetts ‘Bar Advocate’ attorneys, During this period Ed Ryan Bar Advocate Billing to the State was wrongly and mistakenly stacked together on certain days making it appear that Ryan was billing at more than 24 hours a day. The problem was a confused Bar Advocate billing system, and not about attaining unauthorized extra pay. The truth being that Ed Ryan billed out at rates below the average per case when compared to other Bar Advocate billing. When Ryan ran for MA State Senate in 1990, the news media latched on to this issue, and Bar Advocate Officials in Boston removed him from ever again being eligible to be a bar advocate attorney. In short, Ed Ryan’s livelihood and ability to provide for his family was destroyed instantly, as his entire law practice was composed of bar advocate cases. In The meantime the news media never reported the real truth that in every bar advocate's case assigned to Attorney Ed Ryan, not one bill ever approached the maximum allotment, or was considered over-billing. And that in every case billed, all services were provided to every defendant client assigned by the court to Ryan. And in no case, assigned to Ed Ryan, was there were no client complaints regarding any client assigned through the Bar Advocate process.
After the State Senate election loss, and the death of his father, former State Senator Donald Ryan, who died from pancreatic cancer, Ed Ryan went through a divorce and eventually fell into a life of street drug addiction and petty crime. This went on for a number of years and is well documented for anyone to explore. In 2006 Ed Ryan was disbarred for continued arrests relating to living an addiction-based lifestyle. Ed Ryan also did several stints in Western MA county jail as he wrestled with addiction. Ed Ryan now apologizes if that is possible and asks for a second chance as he goes forward as a dedicated individual living an authentic lifestyle, Ed Ryan was having a hard time recovering using bathe Bible based practices of 12 step program. Ed Ryan is an Atheist and believes that the superstitious religion’s myth can actually corrupt the minds' ability to deal with reality on an all issue in the most logical and socially correct ways. Superstitious beliefs corrupt the intellectual abilities of the mind. In 2013, Ed Ryan recovered from addiction through use of existential principles and moved the Los Angeles to start a new life, at age 53, Ed Ryan ‘s life in L.A. was about being an authentic Anti-Corruption Political Activist who was actually living with the homeless to fully understand extreme and silent L.A .Law Enforcement and Court House Corruption that included criminal justice corruption corruption cause by secret practice of vigilante associated with law enforcement methodically harassed jailed homeless people. This was an implied political directive to remove homeless from living in some of the safer L.A. Neighborhood. Ed Ryan’s political activism during this period is well documented on the internet and if anyone is interested, please google these phrases: ‘LAPD gang stalk vigilantes’ or term ‘EdRyanMayorLA2022’. Ed Ryan ran for mayor of LA. as a ‘write in’ candidate in 2022, using the platform to message LAPD and LA Sheriff Department, the LA FBI, and LA criminal justice racist corruption, and calling for real reform. Ed Ryan was arrested and wrongly jailed eight times while living in LA twice during a campaign. Eventually Ed Ryan continued his messaging while running as a ‘write in’ candidate choosing to run and message while living homeless in LA. After the November 8th, 2022, campaign Ef Ryan moved back to Springfield Ma, to wage a more conventional campaign to remove Richie Neal Corruption.
Ed Ryan graduated from UMASS, Amherst, BS, Cum Laude, majoring in political science. Ryan earned his Juris Doctorate at California Western School of Law, San Diego. Ryan has worked for the Massachusetts Attorney General’s office. and as an Assistant District Attorney for the Hampden County District Attorney’s Office in Springfield Massachusetts, his hometown. Ryan was elected to the Hampden County Charter Commission and was elected Chairman by the other eleven Commissioners. Ryan is an author and poet and Wrote “East to LA” in 2014, a compilation of cutting-edge verse that concerns social justice, love, hate and space. Ed is divorced and has three adult children, all doing well. Ryan is a long-term survivor of drug addiction and has been sober for years. He asks the people of Western Massachusetts to understand his past many struggles with the addiction lifestyle, and to give him a second chance to give back to a country he loves, Ed Ryan will always be fully transparent and never take Corporate money. Ed Ryan is now an open book dedicated to removing Richie Neal from congress as he is the lead corrupting force of American Democracy at this point in time. Ed Ryan urges anyone in active addiction or in recovery who is having a hard time to know recovery is possible via a lifestyle based on principles of existentialism. Thanks for understanding. ed ryan
Please See: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLw_FYYl-Gcwr5-LmZpAvxrorL4RCRUf5U
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Ed Ryan running for congress to unseat ‘pay for play ‘artist , Congressman Richie Neal, now provides a link for anyone to play and hopefully re-post some of the more than 60 videos on his YouTube channel: please see:CommentMarkdown ModeSort By: Best No Comments Yet Be the first to share what you think!
A place for news and discussion about politics in the Bay StateCreated Jul 3, 20134.0k
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2023.03.20 17:13 TrumpTweetBot1 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/110056050698525348
2023.03.20 17:10 your_name_here- First Republic looking more like Fucked Republic amirite?
2023.03.20 17:07 TrumpTweetBot1 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/110056049661441886
2023.03.20 17:07 Sammabelle FUCK THE FOX.COM AD ON REDDIT
Obviously fuck fox news in general but now every time I scroll my feed I come across this new ad from them that includes footage from 9/11 that immediately triggers my PTSD. I have no fucking clue what the ad is actually for, I’m assuming a shitass new conspiracy show or doc, but I was able to scroll up on my feed just a hair up again to catch the name of the advertiser. Imagine my lack of surprise.
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2023.03.20 17:02 AssistanceChance5454 2022 - March 7th earnings call and thoughts
I wanted to take some time to get down my thoughts regarding the recent AFC Gamma earnings call and price activity since.
In my opinion the call was not positive and the tone didn’t have much optimism to it.
The transition of the role of President of AFCG was not discussed.
The, what appears to be deteriorating, status of a number of loans was not discussed. The $11M increase in reserves against loans was not discussed.
The questions asked by analysts seemed phoned in. I took 10 minutes to review management discussion and loan disclosures in the financial statements and easily could have had actual questions – not a few softballs.
Volume: Prior to the earnings call volume was in a range of 80-200k/day. Volume since the earnings call – March 7th 306k, March 8th 850k, March 9th 220k, March 10th 875k, March 13th 220k, March 14th 450k, March 15th 295k, March 16th 211k. That is 3.5M over 8 trading days. I am guessing that a lot of the selling is driven by the institutional investors not liking what they heard (or didn’t hear) and getting out. The call was on March 7th – discussions had at investment firms and orders to be documented and approved – March 8th sell-off.
Close March 7th 2023: $15.45
Close March 16th 2023: $12.33
Loss since call: ($2.12) or (13.7%).
During that same time NASDAQ (^IXIC) is up roughly 1.5%. That is a ~15% downside swing in a little over a week.
If you go back a month AFCG closed at $16.06 on February 15, 2023. Down ($3.73) or (23%).
Similar tickers I follow for industry news and general comparisons are IIPR, NLCP, REFI and SSIC. Different strategies but give a good picture of underlying cultivators/dispensaries ability to meet their financial obligations. IIPR is traded on the NYSE and has a market cap of $2.3B. NLCP is OTC and has a market cap of $300M. AFCG, REFI and SSIC are traded on NASDAQ and have market caps of $250M, $240M and $60M.
During the period from February 15, 2023 to close on March 16, 2023:
IIPR: Down ($8.59) or (9.4%)
NLCP: Down ($5.18) or (27.1%) [this is AFTER a $10MM stock buyback in Q4 22
SSIC: Down ($0.25) or (2.6%)
REFI: Down ($1.70) or (11.4%)
I did not listen to the earnings calls but read some of the earnings releases and it appears a lot of the NLCP difficulties stem from tenants that are unable to pay rent as agreed. Typically in a REIT this would not be a major issue because another tenant could take over the lease and cash flows are only lost temporarily. With a lot of the space being leased by cultivators/dispensaries – the next best use of the leased premises would result in much less rents resulting in those leases being less valuable. Would AFCG be in a similar position if the deals started going bad? I would assume so.
REFI is probably the most similar entity and seems to mirror AFCG or AFCG mirrors REFI. Upon quick review of the 2022 financial statements there were no disclosures regarding troubled borrowers or any other items that really give pause. The have roughly $4M credit reserves and over 90% of loans are categorized as risk 3 or better (majority of AFCG are risk 3 with the remaining worse).
In general the cannabis industry is having industry-wide financial difficulties. There was a major rush to get up and running at various state levels to meet demand and a lot of companies that had no business entering the space were able to get financing at terrible terms. Cash was easy and the economy was pumping (regardless of whether or not artificially). Now reality is setting in.
Comparing price activity I would say a majority of the recent decline in price is driven by AFCG directly while 5-10% of that is driven by the market/industry. CONCERNS:
- BORROWERS: In my opinion this was the biggest issue with the call. Zero discussion regarding the current borrowers. Zero questions from analysts regarding the status of the loans. Zero questions regarding ability of the borrowers to stay current and meet terms as originally agreed upon.
During Q4 2022 there was an increase of $8.5 million to CECL and $11.5 expensed/added during the full year. These losses are added back for calculation of distributable earnings. Basically this is saying the loans are impaired and will incur losses – but we currently have the cash to pay a dividend as if the loans were current and performing.
At December 31, 2022 there was $14.2M reserved for CECL.
In Note 6 of the financial statements they break out the loans by risk rating. 3 is the best risk rating held by AFCG 5 is the riskiest. At December 31, 2022 there was $105M between category 4-5. Category 4 is defined as “high risk/potential for loss”. Note – all of REFI’s are Category 3.
At December 31, 2022 roughly 5% of all loans or 13.5% of Category 4/5 Loans were reserved for. Does this seem light? Given the struggles of the cannabis industry and borrower developments I feel this is low.
Other notes from the financial statements:
- Private Co. A ($1.2M): Non-accrual status ($1.2MM) that is fully reserved.
- Subsequent Events:
o Private Co I ($10.5M): January 2023 – Deferred upcoming principal payment. March 2023 – Deferred another principal payment and PIK a cash interest payment. Not good.
o Private Co K ($25.2M): February 2023 - Reduced loan commitment. Smart fiscal move by borrower but shows that the industry is slowing.
o Private Co B ($15.9M): March 2023 – Entered into a forbearance and modification agreement with borrower. Waive financial covenants. Not good.
Note: This is only what was required to be disclosed by the auditors. There was no additional discussion during the call. Unsure on the status of the other loans – assume they are paying current.
Between Private Co’s A, I, and B loans at December 31, 2022 totaled ~$27.6M. CECL reserve at 12/31/2022 was $14.2 million. Does this seem reasonable? Loans having significant issues are 50% reserved and nothing else on the remaining ~$250M portfolio?
Even if the borrowers are able to make regular payments – what is the plan when the loans near maturity? I would assume the loans have extremely large balloon payments that the borrowers will not be able to meet. Depending on the regulatory environment would AFCG seek to sell the loans? Would the terms/rates be adjusted and rolled into a new agreement?
- STRATEGY: AFCG is now exploring opportunities outside the cannabis industry. Basically this shift in strategy is AFCG coming out and saying there are no sizeable opportunities in the cannabis industry and we don’t foresee any in the near term so we are going to try and put your capital to work elsewhere.
They took hundreds of millions of dollars of investor money under the premise of a REIT with a cannabis industry focus and are now working with a pipeline is not producing. Hopefully new opportunities arise and/or opportunities outside cannabis provide reliable/healthy rates.
If the team of experts produced a deal with terms that are having to be amended and concessions given less than two years into the agreement – what is to give investors confidence that these experts can legitimately vet “other” lending opportunities that won’t sour?
For purposes of my analysis I am not assuming any growth/additional lending subsequent to 12/31/22.
- PIPELINE: As of March 1, 2023:
- Commercial real estate: $454M
- Cannabis: $245M
Leonard Tannenbaum noted during the call that it could take “months” before anything is completed. I would guess that means we won’t see anything before the next earnings call.
Also – with the recent SVB/Signature Bank developments – how has the overall lending environment been impacted? Will this change the due diligence process?
- CASH FLOW: AFCG has ~$100M of creditors that get paid before a dividend is even considered.
In the financial statements it was noted that $60M was drawn on the line of credit at year-end and repaid January 3, 2023. I am not sure the purpose behind this but assume this is for a REIT qualification benchmark.
Distributable earnings is a non-GAAP measurement. GAAP earnings were $0.14 but due to addbacks (stock compensation and CECL reserves) the income needed for a $0.56 dividend was met.
$46M of unfunded commitments.
What is the plan for raising cash for additional lending? Would there be demand for AFCG notes at 6-7%? Investors can get 4% on government securities. The additional 3% is not worth the risk. Would additional stock be issued and at what price?
What is management’s realistic
expectation of dividends in the future?
- INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS: Previously noted, volume has been through the roof since March 7th. My guess is a lot of out-flows of institutions. Where does that lead us? Unfortunately the 13-F for Q1 is not due until May 15, 2023. By that time the stock could fall another 25% and the 13-F shows the big-dogs left and only bag holders remain. An extremely uncertain time.
There was a post on Reddit where the user said “Tannenbaum bought in here – good sign” around March 13, 2023. Based on the detail on SEC’s EDGAR, Tannenbaum did not directly buy more AFCG. A related foundation purchased 50,000 or so shares as part of an equity agreement.
Leonard Tannenbaum owns ~3.5MM of shares of AFCG. 50,000 shares is a drop in the bucket (~1.5% of total investment). If $20.50 was paid per share that is a paper loss of $21MM. A quick Google search would show that he is extremely wealthy. $20MM of unrealized loss isn’t anything to scoff at but doesn’t hurt nearly as much much when your name comes up in billionaire discussions.
It is also important to note that the management and related fees are paid to Leonard Tannenbaum’s management company – owned by him and his wife – outside of AFCG. The $21MM of unrealized loss on the shares owned is actually significantly less if you factor in the amount of fees. During 2022 there were $15.7M in management and incentive fees. During 2021 there were $8.3M of management and incentive fees.
- INDUSTRY: Obviously the cannabis industry is a big risk-on investment and there are going to be large swings in price due to issues like regulatory activity at the state and federal level. The investors expect to be compensated for this risk leading to high dividend yields.
Understanding the cannabis industry struggles right now - If AFCG’s borrowers are not able to make payments and need to amend terms to avoid default – how many of these leases and lending agreements that were entered into during the “boom” have terms that can realistically be met? How hard have the auditors pressed to realistically reflect expected credit losses? If reserves are light and there is a lot of trouble ahead – how does that impact cash flows (dividends)?
I have a cost basis of about $15.60. That would mean I am sitting on an unrealized loss of about (21%) - with dividend rates of roughly 15%. Understanding it is a difficult time for the cannabis industry overall I am OK with the risk and downturns – assuming dividends continue to get paid at rates similar to where they currently are.
I obviously have concerns.
I apologize for the massive post but I feel these are all valid questions/discussion points. None of this was discussed on the earnings call which I feel like should have been discussed.
Playing devil’s advocate:
- What if the 13F comes out and institutional holdings have reduced from 35% to 15%?
- What if the loans discussed in subsequent events continue to have difficulties and the Q1 23 earnings call the CECL reserve is required to be increased to 50% of the Risk 4 Loans (~$50M)?
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2023.03.20 17:01 P1_Synvictus Is there a reason that 9 of the 12 first-place brackets on Tournament Challenge have UCLA winning it all?
2023.03.20 17:01 allChickensFearRice 🇺🇸 🏴 📺 📰 WFFT FOX 55 Fort Wayne Indiana News & Weather
2023.03.20 16:55 Notforsale101 They count on every single immigrant's vote for 2024
2023.03.20 16:55 ahritina LEC Spring 2023 / Week 2 - Day 3 / Live Discussion
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